Now, ElspethFTW already has a solid write-up on Oviya Pashiri and her worthiness of being in your Magic collection. But here, I want to talk a bit about why Oviya suddenly went from a $0.25 bulk rare to a $0.50 card on the rise. Even foils are seeing a healthy interest, and it's not all from EDH players like myself who want her in my Rhys the Redeemed deck.
Oviya Pashiri has become the biggest speculation target leading up to Dominaria's release. That's why she's been a consistent best-seller on TCGPlayer. How did this happen?
Well, first of all, she's cheap. And if she's a best-seller, a lot of other players not quite aware of the fact that she's being speculated on join in thinking, hey, maybe something is up here. And, honestly, as I've already stated, a one-drop Legendary creature in a Standard format that rewards you for playing Legendary spells is going to be pretty good.
But HOW good will she be? Yes, Dominaria has good additions to Green/White Aggro, and perhaps Mono-Green Aggro, as well. But for Oviya to be worth speculating on, she's going to have to be at least a three-of or four-of in some deck that reaches the top tier of a major tournament. A 1/2 one-drop with decent tap abilities playable at instant speed is certainly Standard playable. Yes, being a Legendary Creature triggers historic spell abilities from Dominaria.
But is Oviya going to become a $2.50 card (or more) and make lots of people money? Perhaps.
The logic of speculators here is pretty sound. If you buy a playset for between $1.50 and $2 with shipping costs included, your risk is super low. If you buy a foil copy for $1-2 or so, your risk is even lower. That's because Oviya is playable in EDH and those players who want to make her a permanent shiny part of a token-happy EDH deck will pay that price.
If the nonfoil busts, you're out $2 per playset of four copies, minus the 40 cents or so you could recoup from a vendor. You could try and unload your failed spec at eBay or TCGPlayer; but, after shipping and fees, your net loss will be the same. However, the foil won't lose much if the card doesn't become widely adopted in Standard. Worst case, you break even or lose a minimal amount of value as trade fodder.
If you're starting out in Magic the Gathering collection building, this is not a bad card to have. I've always been more keen on foils as investments, as reprints tend to destroy the value of nonfoil printings quite dramatically. While Oviya doesn't look like a prime reprint target, her inclusion in a Commander related product isn't out of the question.
So, if you want to bet on Oviya becoming an awesome sauce can't miss investment during her time in Standard, I'd pick up a foil copy or two and call it a day. While I'm not remiss to pick up a nonfoil copy as an order tack-on or trade throw-in, I just don't see her as much more than she already is.
That being said, I always love foils of EDH playables, especially those that have seen play in standard. With a foil multiplier of 2.5x already, if Oviya becomes even just a dollar in nonfoil, you're up to probably $3 on the foil. Even selling that one foil copy is going to net you a profit. Also, while the market for nonfoil copies is larger, people who really want foils really, really want them. People will be willing to pay a premium for a foil of a card they need for their deck. And if Oviya does his $2.50 or $3, you'll have a $5 foil at the minimum. But if she doesn't, you hedged your bets and she's still a decent card to hold in your collection.
Whenever you're considering a card to hold onto for pure speculation purposes, you have to consider the card's floor, its potential ceiling, and your costs of unloading it if and when it does go up in price. Personally, I don't do speculation. I just collect good cards. But if and when you see a card selling like there's no tomorrow, it's cheap, playable, and potentially a top-table player, there's no reason not to grab a copy or two (preferably foil), sit back, and potentially reap some solid rewards.
Don't speculate. Collect intelligently, instead.