by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
While Jonathan Villar is better remembered as an Astro, Brewer, and Oriole, his career began as a Philadelphia Phillie. That much is obvious from his 1st Bowman Chrome card from 2010. But, the speedy Villar who had a little pop never played a regular season game for the Phillies. He was traded along with Anthony Gose and J.A. Happ for Roy Oswalt.
That trade worked out OK for both sides. But, while he looked just as ready to contribute from the look of his 2011 Bowman Chrome card with the Astros, Villar got off to a slow start with his new team in his first two stints in 2013 and 2014. But, he started putting things together in 2015, when he was traded after the season to the Milwaukee Brewers for pitcher Cy Sneed.
It wouldn’t exactly be a trade the Astros would regret. Of course, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman would shine for the Astros. While Cy Sneed had a decent 2019 MLB debut and is still part of the Astros plans, Villar exploded in 2016 for the Brewers. But Villar put up impressive numbers for the Brew Crew: 19 HR and 62 SB with a decent 285.369.457 slash line. Unfortunately, Villar stumbled in 2017 and wasn’t much better in 2018 until the Trade Deadline.
In one of the best trades the Orioles made in a long time, the Brewers and O’s swapped second baseman in a classic “change-of-scenery” trade. The guy the Orioles gave up, Jonathan Schoop, was a disaster in Milwaukee before becoming a free agent at season’s end. Schoop would turn things around in Minnesota in 2019, but of course, that still left the Brewers on the losing end of this trade.
Villar would finish 2018 well for the Orioles and turn in a career year with the O’s in 2019. It wasn’t completely out of nowhere. Villar had a strong breakout year in 2016 with the Brewers with 19 HR and 62 SB (77.55% success rate.) He has just the 2020 season left to play before reaching free agency. The question was how much of it will he spend with the Orioles? It turns out it will be none of it.
Jonathan Villar Goes to Miami
Steamer 2020 Projection .261/.330/.422, 20 HR, 82 R, 70 RBI, 32 SB
The Marlins made a shrewd move, giving up just a potential backend starter for the rights to Villar in 2020. While at first glance it seems like a strange move, there’s a lot of sense in it. It was a clearly spendthrift move by the Orioles, but the Marlins clearly saw his value. Not only is he instantly one of the Marlins best players, but he helps solidify an uncertain second base and shortstop situation. It’s also likely he plays some third base for Miami, as well.
Being that it’s a walk year for the infielder with a great power/speed skill set, many teams would be happy to have him. It would certainly be good for his “hobby cred” to go to a contender. It’s likely the Marlins are taking this into account - thinking they can get someone better than who they gave up in this deal at the Trade Deadline.
In the meantime, the Marlins get a good player and don’t really mind his salary to keep an improving team respectable. The Marlins also picked up Jesus Aguilar, so this is a team that may not be trying to contend, but it is trying to move forward. Also, while it may seem cliche, Villar and Aguilar could serve as mentors for the Marlins’ young talent like Isan Diaz, Harold Ramirez, Lewis Brinson, and others.
While Villar’s first rookie was the aforementioned 2010 Bowman Chrome, his first auto - with the Astros - was in 2011 Bowman Chrome. You can get the autos for under $5, and even graded ones under $20. He’s a nice potential mid-season flip, if he can put up another 20 HR/30 SB-plus season worth of production.
If Villar continues to put up his 2019 level of production, that would be helpful in getting the Marlins to trade him to a contender. As it stands, if they hold him all year, they probably won’t offer him a qualifying offer after the 2020 season, meaning no draft pick compensation. So, whatever they get in return at this point is a bonus. But for Villar, a move to a contender would be good for both him and his cards. As it is, he’s probably better off in Miami anyway, where he’s definitely wanted.
by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Sports Nut
If you’ve been following Major League Baseball top prospects for even just a few years, you will know the name of Jurickson Profar. He was a highly touted prospect for a reason. On his 2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects card, you could see Jurickson simply oozing with talent. The smile on his face as he takes a practice swing in the photo screams a guy that just loves to play some baseball.
But, Profar didn’t get to play nearly as much baseball as he, the Rangers, baseball fans, and card collectors would’ve liked. Injury after injury kept eating into his playing time. When he would try to get a chance in the majors, he just couldn’t put things together before yet again losing a chunk of the season to some injury. Eventually, he finally got to play a full season, even if it took until 2018...
So, when he finally broke out with the Texas Rangers in 2018, it still felt like a disappointment. To hit .254 with 20 HR and 77 RBI - and stealing 10 bases WITHOUT being caught - would be a pretty nice season for most players. After years of getting hurt and not really establishing himself in his limited chances, 2018 was a nice break for Profar. He played all over the diamond, while mostly at third base and shortstop. Unfortunately, he didn’t rate well at any position on defense.
A Second Chance for Jurickson Profar?
The Rangers decided that they would sell high on Profar’s decent success with the bat and on the bases. They let him go to the Oakland A’s in a three team trade that netted them pitchers Kyle Bird and Brock Burke, as well as minor league infielder Eli White. Ironically, White is somewhat similar to what Profar has become - a guy without a position who’s useful enough with the bat and on the bases to have a role with some MLB team. Bird and Burke each had lousy MLB debuts, but both showed promise in the high minors.
The A’s were certainly disappointed in their return. They ended up trading Emilio Pagan and a competitive balance round draft pick to the Rays in the complex three team swap. Profar hit only .218/.301/.410 and was "worth" minus 10 runs at second base. Meanwhile, Emilio Pagan was one of the best relievers in baseball for the Rays. The Rangers are probably thrilled that they got what they did.
There were some positives. Profar still hit 20 HR. He stole 9 bases and was only caught once. The switch-hitter murdered left handed pitching. His batting average on balls in play was a piddly .218. Surely, you’d expect Profar to have a bit of positive regression, right?
A Third Chance for Profar with the Padres?
Being one of the most cost-conscious organizations in the league - to put it nicely - the A’s decided that they would cut bait on Profar. While a projection arbitration salary of $5.8 million is hardly awful for a guy who will likely perform closer to his 2018 than his 2019 results, the A’s decided to move on. They decided to swap their struggling infielder for catcher Austin Allen and a player to be named later.
After their trade of Luis Urias to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres had a three-way fight for playing time at second. Ian Kinsler was terrible in 2019. Greg Garcia is a useful utility Infielder quite likely stretched in full time duty. Ty France had monster AAA numbers and was the guy with the most upside. But, you can't blame the Padres for wanting somebody with Profar's pedigree.
Padres GM A.J. Preller is quite familiar with Profar from his days in the Texas front office. While the familiarity is certainly a factor, it's not like there wasn't a use for him. His Steamer projection for 2020 alone makes him a clear starter at second base even with his fielding difficulties.
Steamer 2020 Projection (125 games): .250/.331/.431, 18 HR, 67 R, 64 RBI, 7 SB
Because of his propensity for injury, his projection accounts for at least some missed time. But even if that time, FanGraphs has him bring worth 2.2 WAR. That's a slightly above average player. Going into his age 27 season and being projected to earn $5.8 million through arbitration is fine for the Padres. The A's just wanted to move on.
What did the Padres give up? Austin Allen didn’t impress in his major league debut, but scouts project him to grow into more of his raw power. He could be a nice find for the A’s, for sure, even if he’s just their third catcher at the moment. He’s not nothing, although a very underwhelming return considering what a star Profar was expected to be.
The good news for Profar is that he definitely has a starting job with the Padres. If he can get his throwing issues under control, he could be at least a passable defensive second baseman. As even a slightly below average fielder, his bat and speed are still good enough tools to make him a 3 WAR player. It would be good to see him hit the ball harder with more consistency. But, in just 2019, his expected wOBA was .323 VS his actual .301 wOBA was enough of a gap to show he was unlucky.
Will Profar reemerge in the baseball card hobby? Right now, it doesn’t seem like he will. It's highly unlikely he suddenly becomes a 30 HR & 100 RBI stud out of nowhere. Could he finally have some good batted ball luck and put together a really nice year, though? There may be some untapped potential there yet. In any case, it’s easy to like this trade for the Padres.
Lyn Lomasi is founder and owner of the Brand Shamans Content Community. Services include ordained soul therapy and healing ministry, business success coaching, business success services, handcrafted healing jewelry, ethereal and anointing oils, altar and spiritual supplies and services, handcrafted healing beauty products, and more!
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