Category: Philadelphia Phillies

Andrew McCutchen Signs with Phillies

12/11/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

First off, congratulations for Andrew McCutchen guaranteeing himself $50 million over the next three years. Also, congratulations to the Philadelphia Phillies for having a slightly above league-average left fielder for the next three seasons. There’s potential for a fourth season at $15 million, with a $3 million buyout. While this may seem like a bit of an overpay for a 32-year-old outfielder in decline, it’s really not.

Steamer projects McCutchen to have a fine 2019: 2.6 WAR. It’s not hard to see McCutchen being worth at least 2.0 WAR in 2020, and perhaps 1.5 WAR in 2021. That’s being conservative. He could, in fact, be a bit better. A lot of his value is actually tied up in his plate discipline and modest power. His declining defense is really where he’s been losing a lot of value.

McCutchen still has speed, although he’s not the plus baserunner that he once was. Still, McCutchen is at least 20-25 percent better than league-average with the bat. He’s at least 2 full wins better than anyone else the Phillies had to trot out there. So, at about $16 million a year, they’re paying market rate for about 2 WAR of production a year. That seems more than fair.

2019 Steamer Projection : .265/.363/.461, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 10 SB, .356 wOBA 125 wRC+, -0.7 BsR, 16.2 Batting Runs, -9.4 defense, 2.6 WAR

While McCutchen isn’t the top Fantasy Baseball outfielder that he once was, he’s a perfectly good “real life” outfielder. Many people have already said he’ll replace a lot of the lost offense from Carlos Santana, and that’s true. Rhys Hoskins moving back to first base from left field probably already saved the Phillies at least a win. So, this puts the Phillies forward even more in the run prevention department, as well as the run production department.

This is probably about a market-value contract. There’s no lost draft pick due to McCutchen being ineligible for a qualifying offer after being traded. McCutchen doesn’t even have to be that good in 2020 or good at all 2021 for this to still be an upgrade. It also didn't stop the Phillies signing Bryce Harper. It’s an overall good move for the Phillies and gives McCutchen his last big payday. It’s a win for everyone involved. A good season in Philly in 2019 and beyond should be very good for Andrew McCutchen rookie cards, so definitely keep an eye out for those.

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The Jean Segura Trade: Mariners & Phillies Swap Assets

12/4/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media

Some baseball fans may be surprised that the Mariners traded their all-star shortstop Jean Segura to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. But, as the Mariners are clearly in a rebuilding stage, it makes sense to move whatever trade chips you have in order to aim for the future.

But many have said that the Mariners return doesn’t look right. Of course, I plenty to say about that.

The trade:

Phillies get:
Jean Segura
Juan Nicasio
James Pazos

Mariners get:
J.P. Crawford
Carlos Santana

You may wonder, why would the Mariners trade their All-Star caliber shortstop? He’s arguably one of the better free agent signings of recent years. Well, he is making $17 million for 2019, 2020, and 2021, with an option for 2022 that has a $1 million buyout.

Plus, you shed a reliever about to make $9 million in 2019 - like you need that on a rebuilding team. Pazos may still have promise and is cheap and controllable. And, while Nicasio had a 6 ERA and knee troubles in 2018, his high strikeout rate and low walk rate suggest he’s actually worth that $9 million if healthy in 2019.

But then, the Mariners take on Santana’s $42 million and an unproven shortstop with upside not quite that of what Segura is in the middle of doing. This trade doesn’t look as good for the Mariners as the trade with the Mets did in the end. But, outside of obvious cost savings in the long run, what is this trade really?

Phillies Get Jean Segura

The Phillies are in win-now mode as their rebuild is ahead of schedule. The Phillies get out of the mistake they made with Santana and move young slugger Rhys Hoskins out of left field and to first base where he belongs. They also get the shortstop they need right now in Segura, who is much different than the - supposedly - on-base and glove-first Crawford.

Segura is far from expensive when you consider he’s a 3 win shortstop. He only made $9 million in 2018, and will earn $14.2 million a year from 2019 through 2022. He also has a $17 million option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout. He’s going into his age-29 season and is projected for about 2.6 WAR in 2019 by Steamer. That means he is looking to decline, so I will easily take the over on this projection, as will the Phillies.

But, even if that projection is spot on and even if he declines slightly each year going forward - something like 2.6 WAR in 2019, 2.3 WAR in 2020, 2 WAR in 2021, and 1.7 WAR in 2022, that’s still a total of 9.6 WAR, which would be worth something like $76 million over 4 years on the open market. They’ll only owe him $58 million or so. This is an excellent contract.

Really, the only issue with Segura is that he’s considered to be a disturbance in the clubhouse. He’s apparently not a very well-liked player. The Phillies don’t seem to have any issues with his makeup, though. So, the Mariners gave up a really good player. However, $14.2 million is a lot to pay for a win-now shortstop when you’re not in win-now mode.

Let’s also remember that the Mariners get the Phillies’ shortstop in return. We’ll get to him in a bit.

Phils get Nicasio and Pazos

Nicasio did have a knee issue, but he’s a known quantity. He was once a useful starter who’s become a more useful relever. The Mariners didn’t really need a guy making $9 million though. However, the Phillies can use him. Also, they are essentially eating the $9 million he’s earning in exchange for getting Segura. The good news for the Phillies is that he’s probably a strong contributor.

Pazos has promise, and unlike Nicasio who’s probably a buy-low candidate, he’s a sell-high candidate here. He makes absorbing Nicasio’s salary a little more tolerable perhaps. When you’re building for 2021, the Mariners are not going to need to stockpile relievers anyway. But, the Phillies could use him as a lefty out of their pen for a couple of years and be happy about it. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Between Nicasio and Pazos, the Phillies probably gain 0.5 a win. So, when you consider that even a slight disappointment from Segura is still surplus value, this is even better.

Mariners get JP Crawford

Crawford has a lot of upside which hasn’t been evident at the major league level so far. But Crawford could easily provide pretty much the same value as Segura in the long run, but in a different way. While Segura is contact oriented with average-ish defense, Crawford is seen as a plus defender with strong on-base skills. They are both valuable, just in different ways. Crawford is also younger and much, much cheaper.

Crawford is only looking at his age-24 season in 2019, meaning he’s not even yet in his prime! Steamer projects him for a .228/.321/.361 batting line while being about 4 runs above average on defense. That’s good for a 1.9 WAR in 146 games. That’s while making $555,000 in 2019. That’s not what Segura is doing, of course, but that’s almost a league average shortstop for next to nothing. Plus, his first year of arbitration is in 2021. Right there, the Mariners save about $27 million over the next two years.

However, the money savings isn’t really the main draw here. Crawford has shown flashes with both the glove and the bat. Scouts agree that he still has some modest raw power he could grow into. If J.P. pops a few more home runs or becomes more steady on defense, Crawford is easily a 3 win player, about what Segura is expected to be for the next couple of years. In arbitration, Crawford will likely not attain anywhere near $14.2 million in 2021 or 2022 by arbitration.

Of course, the Mariners may decide to sign Crawford to a team-friendly deal. If Crawford becomes more of a glove-first player, they will get a real bargain. That’s exactly what the Mariners are counting on. It’s not that they didn’t like Segura. It’s just that Crawford could offer the same value for less, and there’s still upside.

Carlos Santana

Santana is hardly a negative, really. In fact, he will likely replace a lot of the lost offensive runs from losing Segura. He actually gives the Mariners lineup an anchor outside of Mitch Haniger. Remember, this is a team that just lost Nelson Cruz. He basically fills that role.

Santana is due $17 million in 2019 and $17.5 million in 2020. He’s also due a signing bonus of $3,333,333 in each of those seasons. There’s also a $500,000 buyout on a team option for $17.5 million in 2021. Essentially, he’s owed $40.5 million. But, if you take Nicasio’s $9 million out of that exchange, that becomes closer to $31.5 million.

So, you’re basically paying Santana $11 million in 2019 and $20.5 million in 2020. At 33, Santana still projects as a 2.5 WAR player in 2019 and probably a 2 WAR player in 2020. For that money, and considering he can DH, that’s pretty good. Also, Santana was actually a neutral defensive player at first base in 2018. So, he’s actually not a negative in the field.

Santana still walks a ton, strikes out less than he walks for the most part, and hits 20-25 home runs a year. That isn’t quite what Nelson Cruz just gave the Mariners, but it’s good enough. You’re not getting a better deal to anchor your lineup for the next couple of seasons.

Did The Mariners Get Better or Worse?

On paper, if you trust in the projections, the Mariners are probably better without Segura if you consider Santana’s steady offensive presence and Crawford still being useful. Of course, the Phillies are a better team with Segura right now than Crawford and don’t actually get worse without Santana, as Rhys Hoskins will no longer butcher in left field (-24 DRS in 2018!)

Essentially, this is a redistribution of resources. The Mariners save a significant amount of money in the next couple of seasons and only have to give some of that money to Crawford in 2021 and 2022 if he’s good. Of course, Crawford could never pan out. But, I still say the Mariners aren’t in that bad of shape. They may be slightly worse on paper, but they gained financial flexibility.

Did the Phillies Get a Lot Better?

Considering that Crawford was worth only 0.5 WAR in 2017 and 0.3 WAR in 2018 for the Phillies, Segura is an obvious upgrade. Rhys Hoskins can now slug from first base, which opens left field up for the underwhelming Nick Williams who at least won’t give away 2 wins of value in the field. The Phillies lose Santana who was about a league-average first baseman, but that’s made up by the gains at shortstop and the addition-by-subtraction of moving Hoskins to first.

Also, the Phillies take only very little extra money in 2019 with Nicasio while potentially getting a fine reliever. They actually save some money in 2020. They also get a cost-controlled shortstop that is likely league-average or better with a market value team option in 2023. The Phillies are a clearly better team now. Did they win this trade?

Who Won the Jean Segura Trade?

Whoever wins the Jean Segura - JP Crawford trade really depends on what Crawford does in 2019-2022. Segura would have to be absolutely terrible for this to be a loss for the Phillies. As is the case with most trades, they are meant to be pretty fair for either side. I like this trade a lot for both teams. The Mariners gain some flexibility financially for 2021 and 2022 while getting a player with upside and a middle-of-the-order bat to stay respectable. The Phillies aim to win the National League East.

The Mariners are rebuilding, but they’re hardly tanking. The Phillies were happy to match up with them and do some asset redistribution. It’s probably not the end for the Mariners but the Phillies are probably feeling pretty good right now. Both teams should after this trade.

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Chase Utley - MLB Baseball Player Bio

2/22/2018

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media

Chase Utley has been a very good ballplayer. He was the Phillies’ overall best player for a very long time. Between 2003-2015, even with all of the injuries he has had, he was able to compile 61.5 Baseball-Reference WAR for the Phillies. This includes the 0.3 WAR from his call-up stint in 2003 and the -0.5 WAR he put up before being traded to the Dodgers. He put up 3.5 WAR with the Dodgers over the next three and a half seasons before retiring after the 2018 season.

As it stands, 65.4 WAR gives him more career WAR than Hall-of-Famers Craig Biggio, Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Willie Stargell, Hank Greenberg, and Joe Torre (although Torre is technically in the HOF as a manager). As he's in the company of a lot of Hall-of-Famers. Chase Utley really is a Hall-of-Fame worthy player.

What’s most incredible about Utley is that he’s done this while only playing more than 156 games 3 times in his career. To think he’s missed perhaps about 2 full seasons worth of games in his career and still amassed 5 seasons of at least 7.2 WAR is unbelievable. It is hard to say whether a player who has been oft-injured as Utley will be voted into the Hall-of-Fame, but the talent has always been there.

When he does play, he is definitely that level of player. It’s also important to note that despite never having won a Gold Glove, he’s been a well-above average defender at second base, amassing 133 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in his career. That’s pretty impressive, even with becoming a slightly below average defender after 2015.

When it’s all said and done, it’s hard not to see Utley getting at least a fair shot on the first Hall-of-Fame ballot he appears on. His grit and determination for playing through so many injury-plagued seasons must count for something, but the numbers alone tell the story of a perennial All-Star with underrated defense. See you in Cooperstown someday, Chase!

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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MLB - Houston Astros Trade Pat Neshek to Phillies

11/4/2016

by Richard Rowell, Sports Break

Pat Neshek from when he pitched for the Minnesota Twins

Pat Neshek has been a useful pitcher for quite some time and he's had two good years with the Houston Astros. However, the Philadelphia Phillies needed a solid set-up man for their bullpen, and the Astros saw a quick way to save $6.5 million next year. The Astros traded the sidearming right-handed pitcher for a player to be named later.

This is a good move for the Phillies because they actually have some useful arms already in their pen. Jeanmar Gomez wasn't all that great as closer, but he's a better pitcher than his numbers suggest. Hector Neris was excellent, however. Youngster Edubray Ramos was solid, as well. Veteran David Hernandez was also solid, but is likely gone in free agency. It's likely that Neshek fills a hole that the Phillies would have otherwise needed to fill with a free agent.

Really, this move makes sense for both sides. The Phillies get cost certainty on a useful relief pitcher and the Astros get a bit of salary relief and a guy for their farm system.

MLB - Did the Rangers Need Cole Hamels?

7/30/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff

Cole Hamels. Photo used under Creative Commons from Flickr user slgckgc.

When it comes to the Texas Rangers, Cole Hamels is not an acquisition for 2015. He has three years remaining on his deal after this season, and they don’t come cheap.. $67.5 million over the next three years, plus a $6 million buyout for a fourth year option valued at $19 million is probably worth Hamels. But the good news for the Rangers is, even though technically they’re paying that, they get to dump about $30 million in future salary commitments by sending Matt Harrison packing. While the Phillies had to take Harrison off the Rangers’ hands, they also get a return of promising prospect. Pitcher Jake Thompson and catcher Jorge Alfaro likely should be starting players in the near future and outfielder Nick Williams is probably better than anything the Phillies could throw out there right now.

Along with two potential relief types, the Phillies actually got quite a decent return for their ace. If Harrison can be even three-quarters of what he was before his back woes, he’ll eat a lot of the innings vacated by Hamels. But those three top 10 prospects along with two potentially useful relievers are what the Phillies are most excited about. This is probably the best return they’ve ever had for one of their best players - as history has shown, their returns on guys like Curt Schilling and Cliff Lee were pretty bad. It seems this time that the Phils did okay, and the Rangers get a guy to pair with Yu Darvish next season without losing any of their top prospects outside of Alfaro.

The question is did the Rangers need Cole Hamels. Clearly, they had the best offer and the Phillies were right to take it. But the Rangers have some issues. Shin-Soo Choo has been horrible. Shortstop Elvis Andrus is making $20 million a year to be replacement level. Adrian Beltre is finally on the decline. Colby Lewis and Yovani Gallardo have been their best pitchers, and they’re both free agents after the season. There’s not much to look forward to here at all.

The good? Prince Fielder, at least, has been OK in a solid rebound season. Mitch Moreland has had a breakout offensive year. Catcher Robinson Chirinos has been better than expected. Roughned Odor is fine at second base. Delino DeShields Jr. is a useful role player. This isn’t much of a core to build around, though.

Then again, the Rangers hardly mortgaged their future. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara are their best offensive prospects. Jurickson Profar may still actually play major league baseball again. There are some other interesting guys on the farm. But a lot has to go right in a hurry, and it’s not like the Rangers are in a position to go buy some free agents.

The Rangers are also in a very good division. The Mariners have underperformed this year. The Angels are solid. The Astros are probably only going to get better. The A’s are way better than their record suggests. Hamels is great, and probably adds 3 or 4 wins to this team a season. They can certainly use him and they hardly killed themselves getting him. But is he going to be enough to reverse this franchise’s fortunes? I highly doubt it.

Then again if Choo and Andrus play like they used to a few years ago and Gallo and Mazara both become all-stars, then we’re talking. A lot of things have to go right now, and with how the Rangers have been destroyed back-to-back years by horrible luck, underperformance, and injury, it’s about time things started going right.

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Andrew McCutchen Signs with Phillies

The Jean Segura Trade: Mariners & Phillies Swap Assets

Chase Utley - MLB Baseball Player Bio

MLB - Houston Astros Trade Pat Neshek to Phillies

MLB - Did the Rangers Need Cole Hamels?

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