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MLB Trade Deadline 2015 - Astros Go All In With Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers

7/30/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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It was a high price to pay, but the Houston Astros now have center fielder Carlos Gomez and starting pitcher Mike Fiers. Going the other way are top outfield prospects Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana, as well as pitchers Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. Phillips will probably join the Brewers sometime next season, but Santana could join the Brewers right now, as he is probably MLB-ready. Hader is a couple years away, but could be a decent starter down the road. Houser's hit some bumps, but could right the ship if he gets his walks under control.

Gomez is a huge boost to the Astros who have been getting little production out of their center fielders.. Not only does Gomez bring his Gold Glove, but adds a big bat to an often inconsistent Houston line-up. He's also under contract for $9 million in 2016, a very reasonable sum. The Astros also get a very useful back-end starter in Fiers, who can be controlled through 2019. He's not due for arbitration until after the 2016 season, either.  So while the prospect haul looks a bit heavy, FIers' inclusion is part of the reason for that.

It's a solid trade for both sides. Milwaukee gets the potential impact talent that the club desperately needs and the Astros get an All-Star and a useful rotation piece for not only the stretch run, but also next season, as well.
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MLB - Is Daniel Nava Done?

7/30/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Photo credit: Flickr user Keith Allison via Creative Commons
Daniel Nava has had a miserable 2015. Not only has he suffered some injuries and found himself at AAA Pawtucket due to insufficient room on the roster, he's now found himself designated for assignment. Nava has been awful in 29 games, hitting only .152/.260./182. He's been a positive on defense, but with all of the players shuffling through the outfield this season, Nava never got going.

Is he done, though? Will anyone claim him on waivers? He certainly has enough of a track record that quite a number of teams could find room for Nava at least as a fourth outfielder, who can also play a little first base. Nava's line drive rate is down (14% vs 22.1% career) but it's a small sample size. There's probably no room on the team for Nava going forward, which is too bad. But I don't think he's done, and the Sox may get some value for him. If not, he'll end up somewhere fairly quickly.
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MLB - Did the Rangers Need Cole Hamels?

7/30/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Cole Hamels. Photo used under Creative Commons from Flickr user slgckgc.
When it comes to the Texas Rangers, Cole Hamels is not an acquisition for 2015. He has three years remaining on his deal after this season, and they don’t come cheap.. $67.5 million over the next three years, plus a $6 million buyout for a fourth year option valued at $19 million is probably worth Hamels. But the good news for the Rangers is, even though technically they’re paying that, they get to dump about $30 million in future salary commitments by sending Matt Harrison packing. While the Phillies had to take Harrison off the Rangers’ hands, they also get a return of promising prospect. Pitcher Jake Thompson and catcher Jorge Alfaro likely should be starting players in the near future and outfielder Nick Williams is probably better than anything the Phillies could throw out there  right now.

Along with two potential relief types, the Phillies actually got quite a decent return for their ace. If Harrison can be even three-quarters of what he was before his back woes, he’ll eat a lot of the innings vacated by Hamels. But those three top 10 prospects along with two potentially useful relievers are what the Phillies are most excited about. This is probably the best return they’ve ever had for one of their best players - as history has shown, their returns on guys like Curt Schilling and Cliff Lee were pretty bad. It seems this time that the Phils did okay, and the Rangers get a guy to pair with Yu Darvish next season without losing any of their top prospects outside of Alfaro.

The question is did the Rangers need Cole Hamels. Clearly, they had the best offer and the Phillies were right to take it. But the Rangers have some issues. Shin-Soo Choo has been horrible. Shortstop Elvis Andrus is making $20 million a year to be replacement level. Adrian Beltre is finally on the decline. Colby Lewis and Yovani Gallardo have been their best pitchers, and they’re both free agents after the season. There’s not much to look forward to here at all.

The good?  Prince Fielder, at least, has been OK in a solid rebound season. Mitch Moreland has had a breakout offensive year. Catcher Robinson Chirinos has been better than expected. Roughned Odor is fine at second base. Delino DeShields Jr. is a useful role player. This isn’t much of a core to build around, though.

Then again, the Rangers hardly mortgaged their future. Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara are their best offensive prospects. Jurickson Profar may still actually play major league baseball again. There are some other interesting guys on the farm. But a lot has to go right in a hurry, and it’s not like the Rangers are in a position to go buy some free agents.

The Rangers are also in a very good division. The Mariners have underperformed this year. The Angels are solid. The Astros are probably only going to get better. The A’s are way better than their record suggests. Hamels is great, and probably adds 3 or 4 wins to this team a season. They can certainly use him and they hardly killed themselves getting him. But is he going to be enough to reverse this franchise’s fortunes? I highly doubt it.

Then again if Choo and Andrus play like they used to a few years ago and Gallo and Mazara both become all-stars, then we’re talking. A lot of things have to go right now, and with how the Rangers have been destroyed back-to-back years by horrible luck, underperformance, and injury, it’s about time things started going right.
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MLB - Is the Dodgers' Andrew Friedman a Mad Genius?

7/30/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
PicturePitcher Alex Wood, now formerly of the Atlanta Braves. Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons user Johnmaxmena2
I've always been a huge fan of current Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman since he first began in the Tampa Bay front office.. Along with stat guru Farhan Zaidi as General Manager, he has remade the Los Angeles Dodgers in some clever and intelligent ways. After snagging Mat Latos and Michael Morse, plus a competitive balance pick, for three probably forgettable minor league arms, he's now made a coup. He used that pick, along with expensive international free agent infielder Hector Olivera to steal lefty starter Alex Wood and top prospect second baseman Jose Peraza from the Braves. He threw lefty specialist Paco Rodriguez in there for good measure.

Friedman was well aware that the Braves coveted Hector Olivera. They'd scouted him heavily and tried to sign him before the Dodgers blew them out of the water with a huge signing bonus. Now the Braves get their guy, minus the signing bonus, at the cost of one of their best pitchers and a guy who could be a better Dee Gordon. Could Olivera step right in at third base or second base for the Braves? Absolutely. So far, in his roughly 100 minor league plate appearances, he's looked fine. But he has a shaky medical history, and he's 30. He's no spring chicken. While he doesn't have to be a perennial all-star for this trade to not look like a stinker, it's puzzling you'd give up a strong starter like Wood.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has pointed out that Wood is comparable to David Price and Cole Hamels, just without the track record. Price is a rental and Hamels is now with the Rangers. Hamels is expensive. Price, again, is a rental. Wood is probably earning the league minimum (under $600K) next year and has three years of arbitration ahead. Combined he'll be about the same price as roughly a season and a half of Price or Hamels going forward. Yes, they had to deal a pick in the process, but it was the Marlins' pick, and they had to eat $20+ million of signing bonus payments to Olivera. That seems worth Alex Wood and the possibility that Peraza is going to be a starting caliber infielder.

The Dodgers had to take advantage of their massive financial resources, but it's money they were already spending anyway. They actually save money here. It's hard to say where Michael Morse fits on the Dodgers, but he'll probably be flipped, too - Morse is nowhere as bad as his numbers this season would suggest.

So is Andrew Friedman and Co. a company of mad baseball geniuses?. It hasn't even been a full season, but the reallocation of resources is going very well so far., especially going forward

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MLB - What of Jose Reyes?

7/29/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Jose Reyes with the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo used under Creative Commons from Keith Allison
It has been a sad past few days for the Colorado Rockies and their fans. They have just watched their franchise player,  shortstop Troy Tulowitzki traded away for a has been and three unproven arms. They also surrendered the steady reliable and popular reliever LaTroy Hawkins, as well. What are we to make of this sudden swap?

Well we know Tulo wasn't too thrilled with the circumstances surrounding his exit from the Rockies. The experts generally agree though that this is the best the floundering Colorado franchise could do given Tulo's injury history and huge contract commitments.

What hasn't been discussed is perhaps the one piece that seems to be neglected here. Jose Reyes isn't minced meat. He's been roughly a league average shortstop this season, keeping his head above water just enough offensively to compensate for his eroding defensive skills. Shortstop is currently one of the weaker positions in the major leagues right now. Even with talent on the way, like Trevor Story of the Rockies, nothing is a given yet.

While the Rockies are most certainly in a position to blow it all up, they had to take on a contract in order to get the young arms they crave. Besides Jeff Hoffman however, the reports on the other two pitchers are mixed.Miguel Castro probably will never be more than a middle reliever. The other guy is far enough away that he could be a fourth starter or mere inventory.

So what of Reyes?  Some pundits are of the opinion that he'll be swapped yet again. But without eating a ton of money and few obvious suitors it appears they are stuck with him. But that may not be the worst thing. Keep in mind that the thin rocky Mountain air has worked wonders for other position players. Vinny Castilla the slugger was definitely a product of Colorado, for example.

Even light-hitting shortstop, and current Rockies manager, Walt Weiss hit .328/.423/.400 in 223 games at Coors Field. Interestingly enough, Weiss only hit .258/.327/.309 at the old Mile High Stadium in 61 games.

Does that mean Reyes could return to All-Star form just from the bump given him by playing his home games at Coors? In only 25 games in his career at Coors, he’s hit a meager .254/.259/.447. That slugging percentage would be acceptable, though.

In the end, the Rockies get 3 interesting arms, trade away a reliever who was going to retire at season’s end anyway, and save $50 million or so in future salary commitments. If Reyes returns to just being a 3-win player, it’s hardly a bargain, but it’s not far out of the realm of possibility. Tulo has not played to his former great self. If his best days are behind him, then the Rockies made the right move. Reyes is far from worthless.
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MLB - Red Sox Begin Fire Sale by Trading Shane Victorino to Angels

7/27/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons author Matthew Crowne
The "Thrill of Victorino" has definitely become a distant memory for Red Sox Nation. Shane Victorino was a huge part of the 2013 World Champion Red Sox team, but since then, he's been plagued by injuries. It's not like prognosticators didn't see this coming. So for the Red Sox to acquire anything for Victorino was going to be a win at this point. The Sox found a taker, the Los Angeles Angels. In exchange for him and about $3-4 million to cover the $4.5 million or so remaining on Victorino's contract, the Red Sox will acquire infielder Josh Rutledge.

Victorino probably isn't going to be much more than a bench bat for the Angels, probably to platoon with current Angels' left fielder Matt Joyce. It's good for him, though, as the Sox have had the hot Alejandro De Aza playing right field lately, and the Sox needed to make room for Rusney Castillo, who's been stuck at AAA Pawtucket for most of the season. Shane gets to go to a contender rather than be mired in last place.

The Sox receive only minimal salary relief, but really, what they were really after was Rutledge. While the infielder had a nice offensive showing in 2012 with the Rockies, he's a bat-first player. He's a career -11 DRS second baseman and -20 DRS shortstop. Perhaps the Sox are hoping they can fix his defensive woes; they did it with Xander Bogaerts, after all. If Rutledge becomes just passable on defense, he could be a very useful player. While Rutledge is arbitration eligible after this season, it's doubtful he'll get much of a raise his first time through as he's spent the 2015 season so far in AAA. To his credit, he's performed fairly (.727 OPS).

Really, what this comes down to is the Sox getting future value while giving up a short-term asset. Rutledge probably would have been a non-tender candidate for the Angels this off-season anyway. This way, the Sox can see if he can live up to his offensive potential while helping him to be a better infielder. There's really nothing to lose on either end of this deal.

Will Rutledge be more Brock Holt (utility all-star) or Jonathan Herrera (replacement level disappointment)? Maybe he'll be something in between, but he's worth the shot. Victorino can still play some defense, although he's not what he was, but he's better than what they've had. The Angels needed outfield depth, and Victorino was the most obvious and cheapest upgrade.
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MLB - Is Jerry Sands Finally Breaking Out?

7/26/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
PicturePhoto credit: Wikimedia Commons user UCInternational
Jerry Sands has always shown some real offensive potential. Unfortunately for him, he's pretty much been a Quad-A player for much of his career. He had a 61 game stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2011, in which he was basically replacement level. He followed that up with a very strong season for Albuquerque in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League.

After being part of the mega deal with the Boston Red Sox that netted the Dodgers, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crowford and Josh Beckett, he didn't see any action. He was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates that off-season along with Mark Melancon and others for Brock Holt and Joel Hanrahan. Sands had a terrible season in the Pirates system and was selected off waivers by the Tampa Bay Rays in the offseason.

Sands enjoyed a rebound season with the Durham Bulls of the Tampa Bay system, and got a 12 game cup-of-coffee in the Majors without any success. The Rays let him go at the end of the year, where he signed with the Cleveland Indians.

He's only got into 10 games so far with the Major League club, but he's been excellent in limited action (.375/444/.583 for an absurd 1.028 OPS) But the real story is what he's done for AAA Columbus. Sands owns a .278./402/.545 batting line good for a .947 OPS in 62 games. What's especially different about this batting line is the huge leaps and bounds he's gained in plate discipline. He's walked 42 times against only 38 strikeouts.

The question is if these changes in plate discipline are sustainble. He has a 16.2% walk rate and a 14.7 % strikeout compared to his career 9..7% and 24.0% career marks. His ISO (Isolated Power) is also a strong .268 mark. He's flashed this sort of power before in the minors, but Sands is much more of a complete hitter now. Sands is nothing special defensively in the corner outfield or at first base, but he's no butcher, either. He looks to be a pretty useful player going forward.

The Indians haven't really had room for Sands on the roster unfortunately. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2017, so the Indians have control of him for some time if they so choose. He's no longer a prospect at 27 years old, but his days as a useful major leaguer may finally be about to begin.

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MLB - Kansas City Royals Acquire Ace Starting Pitcher Johnny Cueto from Reds

7/26/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V..E. Media Staff
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Photo credit: "Johnny Cueto 2" by Wknight94 - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
The Kansas City Royals have opened a healthy lead in the American League Central, but to assure a division win, they have gone out and acquired one of the best pitchers on the trading market. The Cincinnati Reds surrendered their free-agent-to-be ace Johnny Cueto in exchange for three left-handed pitchers: Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. All look to be decent pick-ups for the rebuilding Reds. The Reds are also kicking in some money in the deal.

This would appear to purely be a rental for the Royals, as Cueto is going to be a free agent after the season. Also, because he was traded, the Royals will not be able to offer Cueto a qualifying offer at the end of the season. FanGraphs projects Cueto to be worth about 1.5 - 1.6 WAR through the rest of the season, which could mean as much as two games difference in the standings. With Jason Vargas out for the year, Cueto will take his place. The Royals haven't had a true ace this year, so this move is definitely slated more towards having a strong Game One starter in the playoffs.

In return, the Reds get some very interesting talent. Finnegan has already seen the majors, but has been struggling with his control this year. Lamb is a 25-year old starter who's had a very strong year. Both Lamb and Finnegan are going to AAA for now, but will probably see the Major League roster in September.. Reed looks to be a talented arm, too, drafted by the Royals in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft. He'll report to AA, hoping to build off of this year's success. Finnegan may top out as a high-leverage reliever, but Lamb could very likely be a part of the Reds' rotation next year. Reed may be a year away or so from helping, but when he does he could be at least a valuable swing-man between the rotation and bullpen.

Did the Royals overpay somewhat? Perhaps not, especially as all three arms they sent away could end up being little more than bullpen arms or back-end starters. But the Reds can use all the talent that they can get right now. This is probably the best return they could have hoped for in exchange for two - three months of a starter that won't help them anymore this season. Cueto is easily going to be the Game One starter in the Division Series, and hopefully for the Royals, beyond. Therefore, he's really worth a lot more than two wins to them. If the Royals happen to win the World Series, this will be a pretty awesome move. Either way, the Reds have some solid arms for next season and beyond.
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MLB - Drew Hutchison Poised to be a Strong Second-Half Performer

7/22/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
PictureDrew Hutchison (Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons user UCInternational)
The Blue Jays lack of pitching depth has been well-noted and it's well-known that the Toronto team is an offensive juggernaut. But one of their primary starting pitchers, Drew Hutchison, is having a better season than a lot of people realize.

Yes, Hutchison's ERA is 5.19 after 19 starts. His 9-2 win-loss record is a reflection of the massive run support he's had in his games. But his FIP is only 3.75. His strikeout rate is more than decent (8.13 K/9) and his walk rate is better than in 2014 (2.77 BB/9). 

The projection systems ZiPS and Steamer both see his .350 BABIP being much too high and expecting a .311 BABIP going forward. The systems see him as a league-average starting pitcher going forward (4.11 ERA/3.92 FIP). That's pretty realistic, meaning that Hutchison should be a strong presence in the Jays' rotation going forward. With a reverse in batted-ball luck, he could even masquerade as an ace. Toronto hopes that will be the case.

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Someone Wants Larry Wolfe Baseball Cards?

7/22/2015

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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As someone who loves to see what's selling in all sorts of trading card categories, it was a bit surprising to see Larry Wolfe among the Top 100 single sports cards selling on Amazon today. Specifically, it was his 1980 Topps card. In what's been a very frustrating season for Red Sox fans, it's cool to see someone from the 3rd place 1979 Red Sox (who actually won 91 games) be remembered by trading card collectors.

Wolfe was never a very exciting player. He only had one truly great minor league season, 1977 with the AAA Charleston Charlies. When the Twins came calling late in the '77 season, he didn't do much at all, albeit in only 8 games.

The Twins brought him back in '78, and he wasn't too exciting. He was about an average defender at third base and had a strong batting eye, but was barely above replacement level (0.6 WAR by FanGraphs, 0.4 WAR by Baseball-Reference). In February 1979, they traded Wolfe to the Red Sox for outfielder Dave Coleman. Since Coleman never played in the majors again, it was a minor win for the Sox.

Wolfe had his best offensive season playing 2B, 3B, SS, 1B, and even an inning at catcher. He hit .244/.378/.410, good for an 108 OPS+ (8 percent above league average) in 47 games. Overall, he only put up 0.3 WAR because of mediocre defense mostly at second. Baseball-Reference has him at 0.6 WAR, if you prefer, as they see his defense as more average. Still, Wolfe was a useful bench player for a winning team.

1980 was a disaster. He hit well below .200 in 18 games, and his batting eye evaporated. He was sent down to Pawtucket, and performed miserably. After the 1981 season, he went to Japan for one year before leaving organized baseball for good. I'm not sure what became of him after that

While Wolfe never did much at the Major League level, it's clear that he had his best year in 1979. His 1980 card is a nice reminder of his usefulness, even if sadly that was the end of it. Dave Stapleton went and had a career year at second base in 1980 for the Sox, so Wolfe never got another chance.

Thanks for the memories, Larry Wolfe. It's good to see some people still remember you, even if it's just to complete a team set.


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MLB Underrated Rookies - Trevor May

7/22/2015

 
by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Since the Minnesota Twins acquired pitcher Trevor May along with pitcher Vance Worley for outfielder Ben Revere, they've been waiting for him to live up to his potential. After two mediocre years with the Phillies, Revere has become an above average player this year. May had a lousy Major League debut last year. Worley was sold to the Pirates in 2014, and he's been solid for them ever since.

With that trade not looking so good for the Twins, they're lucky that May has made some serious progress this year. While his 4.43 ERA isn't exciting at all, May has a 3.31 FIP for the contending Twins. According to FanGraphs, he's been worth 1.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) through 15 starts (19 appearances) despite having a 6-7 Win-Loss record. He's not going to run a .340 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against all season, his strikeout rate is reasonable (7.7 K/9) and his walks have almost disappeared (1.90 BB/9).

Trevor May rookie cards are not incredibly expensive, which shouldn't be surprising. The 2015 Topps Baseball Card Trevor May RC is especially a bargain. While it may be premature to say that May is truly becoming an above-average starter, the amazing changes in his strikeout-to-walk ratio may be sustainable. It's not a bad time to buy low on a pitcher that may have finally figured things out. A lot of that credit probably has to go to new Twins pitching coach Neil Allen, who worked with the Rays for 7 years prior. May and fellow pitcher Kyle Gibson have both shown major improvement this year.

We'll see what the second half has in store for Trevor May. If he can keep up the pace with this  outstanding strikeout-to-walk differential (4.05 K/BB), his cards may end up being a pretty good long-term investment. Even better for the Twins, that Revere trade no longer looks nearly as bad.

MLB - Kyle Schwarber Rookie Cards on Fire!

7/22/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
Picture2015 Bowman Prospects BCP58 Kyle Schwarber, Photo Courtesy of Amazon.com, Fair Use.
Cubs top prospect has come to the Major Leagues on fire, hitting .410/.439/.744 in his first 11 games. He's only gotten this opportunity so quickly due to veteran catcher Miguel Montero's injury. It's believed that the Cubs may move Schwarber to the outfield simply to keep his bat in the lineup. The #4 pick in the 2014 MLB draft, Schwarber has had an OPS north of 1.000 in his two minor league seasons so far. This offense is no surprise at all.

Understandably, Kyle Schwarber Rookie cards are extremely hot right now. From the 2015 Bowman Prospects base card to the various limited edition versions from the 2014 Rize Rookie set - there are options for any baseball card collector's budget.

One of the most affordable Schwarber rookie cards you might consider is 2014 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects #DP2. The base card edition sells for only about a dollar, plus shipping. If you want a limited edition refractor version of this card, the Draft Picks and Prospects set has plenty of them to choose from.

Another popular Schwarber rookie card is 2015 Topps Pro Debut Baseball Card #100. This card depicts Kyle at one of his minor league stops, the Boise Hawks. It lists for about $4-5, plus shipping. There's also a short print Distinguished Debut insert of him in the set, as well.

Kyle Schwarber looks like he'll have a pretty strong career, especially if he can eventually stick behind home plate for the Cubs. It's probably a great time to jump on the Schwarber RC bandwagon if you're a serious baseball card collector.

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Is the 2015 New York Yankees Team Set Worth It?

7/22/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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The New York Yankees are enjoying a good season in 2015. As of this writing, they're currently in first place in the American League East. As team sets tend to be one of the most popular items for casual baseball card collectors, it's not a surprise that the 2015 Topps Yankees Team Set is a top seller The set includes 17 exclusive cards.

  • Masahiro Tanaka
  • Jacoby Ellsbury
  • Brett Gardner,
  • Dellin Betances
  • Carlos Beltran
  • Stephen Drew
  • Brian McCann
  • Garrett Jones
  • Michael Pineda
  • Jose Pirela (RC)
  • Mark Teixeira
  • Bryan Mitchell
  • CC Sabathia
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Alex Rodriguez
  • Didi Gregorius
  • Chase Headley
Jose Pirela's rookie card and Bryan Mitchell's rookie card are two of the more important pieces of this team set. Pirela had a very successful cameo in 2014 but hasn't done much at all in his stint so far in 2015. He's shown plenty of offensive potential in the minors, however, so there's still hope for him.

Mitchell has done well in very limited action, with a 2..66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings so far in his career. He's enjoyed decent success at AAA, as well. It's possible he could become a full-time starter for the Yankees in the near future.

Masahiro Tanaka has enjoyed plenty of success with the Yankees. Therefore, Tanaka's All-Star Rookie card, while not a true Rookie Card, is still worth a couple of dollars. There's tons of stars in this set, too: Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltran, McCann, Teixeria, Sabathia, and A-Rod. If you're a Yankee fan, and this ends up being a team to remember, it's going to be well worth the $10-11 that you'll typically spend on one of these sets.

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MLB - Rubby De La Rosa is Really Unlucky

7/12/2015

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by  Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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Not much at all has gone right for the 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks. But they have one pitcher that has simply had a case of unsustainable gopheritus. His name is Rubby De La Rosa. He was acquired from Boston along with pitcher Allen Webster for lefty Wade Miley. Webster has been an absolute disaster and is currently in the minor leagues. After today's start, De La Rosa has an ERA north of 5.00, but it's all due to the fact that he's allowed an alarming number of home runs this season.

Prior to today's start, De La Rosa has surrendered a home run on 19% of all flyballs he's surrendered. and 1.5 HR/9 (home runs per 9 innings). That's a pretty ridiculous amount, especially when you consider that he's had a decent strikeout rate (8.18 K/9) and a decent walk rate (2.28 BB/9). With peripherals like that, ERA estimator xFIP suggests that his ERA should be about 3.30.

So is Rubby simply really unlucky? James Shields has had a similar issue with home runs this season, with a 17.9% HR/FB.. Shields had a similar HR issue in 2010 when he had a 1.50 HR/9 and 13.8% HR/FB. His xFIP? 3.55. His peripherals were very similar to De La Rosa's, and they've stayed the same, with much more success, ever since. Shields is known to be a pretty good pitcher, and De La Rosa seems to demonstrate similar ability.

C.C. Sabathia has had pretty good strikeout and walk rates, suffering from HR issues as well in 2015. a 1.7 HR/9 rate is simply absurd for a pitcher of his caliber. Yes Sabathia isn't what he once was, but he's simply just giving up more home runs than he should be. His peripherals throughout his career have been comparable to De La Rosa's this season. He's a

If De La Rosa really can become anything like James Shields or C.C. Sabathia, that would obviously be a best case scenario. Top prospect Archie Bradley's struggled and ace Patrick Corbin still working his way back to regaining his prior pre-Tommy John surgery form. If De La Rosa turns things around in the second half to join surprising success story Robbie Ray as solid cogs in the rotation, the Diamondbacks may have at the very least a mid-rotation starter in the making. He still has ace upside and Arizona is right to stick with him.
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MLB - Is Xander Bogaerts Finally Coming Into His Own?

7/12/2015

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by  Richard Rowell,  Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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The struggles of Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts in 2014 are well-documented. Whether it was confidence issues created by being shifted to third base where he struggled mightily on defense or the inability to make adjustments to major league pitching, those issues seem to be fixed this season. Now installed full-time at shortstop, Bogaerts has been the second-best shortstop in the league according to FanGraphs' WAR leaderboard,. His 2.2 WAR at the All-Star break is second only to the Giants' Brandon Crawford, who has 2.9 WAR.

The majority of his improvements have come on defense at shortstop. He's been a +3 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) defender this season compared to -9 DRS last season at shortstop alone, adding another -7 DRS at third base. He essentially cost the Red Sox a win and a half in 2014 simply with poor defense. Because shortstop has been such a less-than-stellar position overall recently, however, Bogaerts managed to still be worth about 0.4 WAR despite having a batting line of about 18 percent below league average.

So is Bogaerts finally about to become an above-average starting shortstop? He has been so far. But there are warning signs. His batting line of .302/.337/.412, while excellent and about 6 percent above league average, is being propped up by a .350 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  His career low walk rate of 4.8% isn't encouraging but his 14.8 K% is a huge improvement compared to his 23.2% last season. He's using his speed to much greater effect, with 16 infield hits on the season after having that number in all of 2014. So a higher BABIP is probably sustainable., although perhaps not at this level

Another thing to look at is his pitch values. The sinker and slider devastated Bogaerts last year. He posted -3.81 and -2.57 runs/100 pitches against sinkers and sliders, respectively. This season, those numbers are -.032 and -0.05. He's making better quality of contact by being more aggressive.

If Bogaerts keeps up the defensive improvements and can continue to bat at around a league average clip, Boston may truly have their shortstop of the future. He may never be the perennial All-Star they were hoping for, but right now, he probably is the best shortstop in the American League. With all that's gone wrong with the 2015 Red Sox, Bogaerts has been strong and steady.

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MLB - Logan Forsythe: An Unsung Hero in the First Half of 2015

7/12/2015

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by  Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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The Tampa Bay Rays have some excellent players. Center field Kevin Kiermaier has been having a great season on both offense and defense. Stalwart third baseman Evan Longoria has been well above-average. Pitcher Chris Archer is having a career year. But someone that has been integral to keeping the Rays a winning team at the All-Star Break is an unlikely fellow: infielder Logan Forsythe.

Forsythe was acquired in 2014 from the San Diego Padres along with reliever Brad Boxberger among others for pitchers Jesse Hahn and Alex Torres. The former supplemental first round pick showed potential in the minor leagues, but hadn't shown much in the Majors. After a decent 2012 season, he had a rough 2013, but the Rays thought he showed promise and decided to take a shot on him. His 2014 season turned out to be a disaster, playing in 110 games and playing below average defense and lousy offense. According to Fangraphs, he was worth -0.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the season.

With Ben Zobrist gone for 2015, there was now a gaping hole at second base.  The Rays had some options, but Forsythe started hitting and has gathered the lion's share of playing time at second base, while getting occasional starts at first base, third base, and shortstop. He's been a somewhat above average defender, with 3 DRS for the season across all four infield positions. But the happy surprise is the .783 OPS he's amassed in 350 plate appearances. FanGraphs has rated his performance at 2.6 WAR. That's 3 WAR better than all of last season.

Is it a fluke? It doesn't appear so. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .317 which isn't particularly very high. He has hit a career high 9 home runs so far this season, including an inside-the-park job.  But his 8.8% HR/FB (Home Run/Flyball) isn't outrageous at all. Nothing in his batting profile looks incredibly out of the ordinary. He's even added 7 stolen bases, being caught only twice, He's just been super good.

Can he sustain this level of above-average play? His minor league track record would suggest that he could, especially with his reduced strikeout rate this season. This is pretty much the player that the Padres hoped he would become. He just never got on track in 2014. The Rays did a good job scouting him and being patient. They wouldn't be a winning team right now without him, either. No one's really been talking about him. Forsythe may not be the next Ben Zobrist, but he's a very underrated and useful player.
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