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Is Mike Yastrzemski a Legit MLB Outfielder?

9/17/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Baseball Fanatic
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On September 17th, 2019, Boston Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski and his grandson Mike reunited at Fenway Park for the first time in awhile. It’s a dream come true for the 29-year old rookie outfielder for the San Francisco Giants who hails from Andover, MA. After playing four years at Vanderbilt, Mike has spent seven seasons in the minors, all for the Baltimore Orioles system until this year. His ascent to the Major Leagues was years in the making, and now he makes his debut at Fenway in left field, the position his grandfather roamed for many years for the Red Sox.

While it’s highly unlikely that we’re seeing the beginning of a Hall of Fame career for Mike Yastrzemski, his numbers in 2019 are pretty solid. Through 96 games, Mike hit .265/.324/.509 good for a 115 OPS+. Mike Yaz also had 19 home runs and 51 RBI. In his minor league career, he had decent, but sort of average numbers. In fact, the projection systems all saw Mike Yastrzemski as more of a 4th outfielder with some pop.

On that very first game at Fenway Park, Mike Yastrzemski hit his 20th home run of the season. It was a home run broadcast everywhere, a league-wide sensation. "Little Yaz" would finish the 2019 season hitting .272/.334/.518 with 21 HR. With the sudden success of a Hall of Famer's descendant, it's little surprise that Mike Yastrzemski rookie cards have been hot since that special moment at Fenway.


So, why is Mike Yastrzemski so good all of a sudden? Part of his success is fueled by a much better batting line on the road vs home and success against lefties as a left-handed batter. His 2019 season BABIP was .325, which isn’t incredibly high. Outside of a brutal month of June and some back issues, "Little Yaz" has actually been even better than his overall batting line would suggest for most of the season. But, is it sustainable success?


What Does StatCast Say About Mike Yastrzemski?

While Mike Yastrzemski is indeed related to Carl, it’s not fair to compare him to his Hall of Fame grandfather. But because his numbers don’t seem fluky on the surface, we need to look at his actual quality of contact. Right off the bat - pun not intended - StatCast shows us that he may be a bit lucky after all. But, it’s not that drastic. Mike’s expected batting average is .251, which is certainly significantly lower than his actual mark of .272. But, his expected slugging percentage of .484, when you filter out the loss in batting average, isn’t much off his current performance.

While Mike Yastrzemski may not develop into the slugger his grandpa was, StatCast’s expected wOBA of .341 isn’t that far off of his actual .357 wOBA, and still quite above league average. There are a couple of other things in his favor, too. StatCast tells us that Mike has above average sprint speed on the bases and an above-average jump on the ball in the outfield. While he has only stolen two bases, he’s been running the bases well, and he’s been a plus defender in the outfield, mostly in left and right field.

Although he’s hit some weak balls, he’s been barreling the ball well, and his hard hit percentage is in the 74th percentile. Having above average power and a respectable on-base percentage while adding above average baserunning and fielding to the mix is a decent package. Right now, Mike Yaz really looks like a league-average corner outfielder. He’s not blowing anyone anyway, but he was a really nice pickup for the Giants.



Why Did the Orioles Give Up on Mike Yastrzemski?

I’m not so sure that the Orioles expected Mike Yastzemski to become a solid regular all of a sudden. He was invited as a non-roster player in spring training and obviously showed enough to the Giants scouts that they wanted to trade for him. The Giants surrendered starting pitcher Tyler Herb, who would go on to pitch fairly well in AA Bowie for the Orioles before struggling mightily in AAA. It’s clear that the Orioles made a mistake with this deal.

Credit goes to the Giants scouting in clearly selecting a player who was ready to breakout. Soon as he went to AAA for the Giants, he tore the Pacific Coast League to pieces. Even though it’s an offense-friendly league, his .316/.414/.676 slash line with 12 HR in 40 games was obviously impressive. With the Giants outfield situation a mess for most of the year, Mike Yaz has found a home in left field alongside brilliant defensive outfielder Kevin Pillar. 

It’s safe to say the Orioles regret making that trade, because it’s very possible that Yaz would be roaming Camden Yards with Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander right now. While it’s not clear that Mike Yastrzemski is going to become much more than what he is right now - a very useful player - the Orioles have to be kicking themselves. The Giants are more than happy to have him, as he’s a legitimate MLB starting outfielder.
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Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future?

9/16/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Red Sox Fanatic
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Brandon Workman has enjoyed a stellar career year for the Boston Red Sox. He’s been such a fantastic relief pitcher, in fact, that he’s become the Red Sox closer. His strikeout rate is off the charts and he’s allowed just one home run in 66 ⅓ innings! Perhaps even more incredible is despite seemingly unsustainable BABIP and HR/9 marks - and a high walk rate - Workman’s incredible season isn’t just a mirage.

It’s time to turn to my favorite statistical analysis tool for baseball: StatCast. Just look at these numbers:

Barrel Rate: 0.8% (Top 1% of league)
Expected Batting Average: .174 (Top 2% of league)
Expected Slugging Percentage: .237 (Top 1% of league)
Actual wOBA: .209 (Top 1% of league)
Expected wOBA: .256 (Top 5% of league)
Expected wOBA on contact: .311 (Top 5% of league)
Hard Hit Percentage: 28.9% (Top 6% of league)
Strikeout Rate: 35.5% (Top 4% of league)


(Note that all numbers are as of 9/16/2019)

The only bad number that StatCast spits out? His walk rate, 15.5%, which ranks in the bottom 1% of the league. Workman is simply not allowing much hard contact and he’s striking guys out, both things you really want a pitcher to do. 

According to FanGraphs, the fielding-independent pitching metrics suggest that even with that high walk rate and miniscule HR allowed rate, his FIP is 2.52 and his expected FIP - which uses an average HR/9 rate - is 3.44. Obviously, those are all acceptable numbers for a closer. Overall, FanGraphs rates Workman as earning 1.9 WAR. Not bad for a guy that the ZiPs projection system saw as a barely above replacement-level middle reliever.


But Wait, It Gets Better for Brandon Workman!

By Baseball-Reference’s WAR, which instead uses Runs Allowed per 9 innings, and not the FIP metric, Workman has been worth 2.8 WAR to the Red Sox in 2019. When you realize that Workman has been worth 2.9 WAR in his entire career including 2019, you realize what an incredible breakout this has been.

So, what’s changed about Workman? Here’s a guy who had a decent rookie season back for the eventual 2013 World Champion Red Sox as a relief pitcher. Then, he had a brutal 2014 season as a starter, after which he missed all of 2015 and 2016 (except for a few brutal rehab appearances in the minors in ‘16) with arm injuries. But, Workman bounced back nicely in 2017, pitching excellently for Pawtucket and pitching pretty well between AAA and MLB in both 2017 and 2018.

In 2013 and 2014, Workman had a sinking fastball and a change-up in addition to his four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball. After arm troubles, when he returned to full health in 2017, those sinker and change-up were taken out of his repertoire. But he has the same three pitches in 2019 that he did in 2017 and 2018. So, what’s the difference?

One obvious thing that’s different is the average fastball velocity. Workman’s four-seam fastball has averaged 92.8 MPH this year. That’s up a lot from 2018 when it was 91.2, and even higher than 2017 when it was 92.2. The added velocity is definitely a big part of it, but what’s more incredible is the spin rate. 

The spin rate on Workman’s fastball is 2121 rpm, up from 2003 and 1982 the previous two years. Those increases in velocity and spin rate have led to a whiff rate of 35.9 percent, a huge jump from 18.3% in 2018 and 17.0% in 2017. That nearly doubled whiff rate has made Workman’s fastball practically unhittable, with a measly .129 batting average and .145 slugging percentage against. StatCast agrees with those numbers with .135 and .174 expected marks.


Brandon Workman Loves to Throw You a Curveball, A Lot

Interestingly, Workman only throws the four-seamer 33.1% of the time, down from 38.9% in 2018 and 51.2% in 2017. What’s replaced many of those fastballs, and a few of his cutters, is his curveball. It’s pretty much the same pitch as 2018’s curveball, although with more spin than 2017. Despite a lower whiff rate of 28.9%, batters have only hit .133 against it. While StatCast sees that as unsustainable, it still expects a batting average of merely .193. You can’t go wrong with that curve.

The most interesting part of this StatCast pitch arsenal data has to do with his cutter. Despite only throwing it 19.8% of the time, it clearly has been the culprit of many of Workman’s issued walks in 2019. His cutter has a whopping 20.4% walk rate. And if that sounds high, it should, as his cutter has never had higher than a 10% walk rate since StatCast began tracking pitches in that way. But, there are a couple of upsides to the cutter. It has a whopping whiff rate of 43.6%, and despite only having a K% of 26.5, has been an effective third pitch overall. Batters have only hit .083 against it, although StatCast expects a .178 batting average. Still, that’s pretty good - even with all the walks it’s ended up creating.

What this data tells us is that Workman has thrown the curve more than ever in 2019, and it’s helped both his fastball and cutter play up. While it’s clear that we may not be able to expect him to replicate this success going forward, it is clear that Workman has found a really nice pitch mix that works for him.


How Will Brandon Workman Do in 2020?

Workman was eligible for arbitration in 2019, and settled for a $1.15 million contract. That’s turned out to be a massive bargain for the Red Sox. Going into his final year of arbitration, Workman should easily expect a substantial pay raise. Through 9/16/19, Workman has a 9-1 win loss record with 14 saves and 15 holds. He does have 6 blown saves, though, but not all of those were as a closer. You may not think wins hold as much water as they once did, especially for a reliever, but that does look awfully nice on his baseball card.

Of course, if Workman’s agent does his homework, there’s a lot to like about Workman going forward. All of this pitch data is very easily accessible. Being credited for 9 wins and 14 saves means something, too - in fact, Workman’s WPA+ (Win Probability Added) on the season through 9/16 is 8.98. Of course, there are two components to WPA (WPA+ and WPA-) and his overall WPA is 2.18, which is still quite good. That mark isn’t far behind one of the best relievers in baseball - Josh Hader - at 2.36, and just ahead of Liam Hendricks, the solid A’s reliever, at 2.16. So, Workman has been a very valuable reliever. 

The advanced stats keep working in Workman’s favor in terms of StatCast expected stats, too. His expected wOBA of .256 ranks right in between the Houston Astros’ top relievers in Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna. Also, he’s not far behind his own teammate, Darwinzon Hernandez, at .253. That’s good company. His actual wOBA, though? Get this, it’s the lowest of any pitcher with 100 Plate Appearances. Workman’s performance has literally made Workman the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2019.

Talk about an arbitration case in Workman’s favor! Even if he stumbles a bit in the last couple weeks of the season, Workman has still been incredible. Should he be the Boston Red Sox closer going into 2020?  There’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be.

Of course, there is Darwinzon Hernandez, who Jhoulys Chacin memorably compared to his former teammate Josh Hader. As the StatCast data shows, Chacin is right. If you believe the StatCast metrics - and there’s little reason not to - the Red Sox have one of the best 8th and 9th inning combos in the game going into 2020. Not a bad setup.

Because of this, it’s possible that the Red Sox explore a contract extension with Workman this offseason. It’s also equally possible that the Red Sox lean on his good, not great past performance and go into 2020 with Workman on a one-year deal to prove he’s for real. But as we’ve broken down here in great length, Workman is definitely a changed pitcher. If he can work on reducing the walks on his cutter, he could, in fact, be the best closer in ALL of baseball. That’s pretty incredible stuff.

Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future? Perhaps. Brandon Workman IS the Boston Red Sox Closer of RIGHT NOW, though, for sure. That future title may go to Darwinzon Hernandez, but you never know. Workman is only 31 years old, very young for a relief pitcher. As long as he’s not overused or overworked, Workman likely has a very nice late-inning career ahead of him.


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Baseball America 2019 High-A Minor League Player of the Year: Jarren Duran of the Red Sox!

9/13/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Minor League Baseball Fan
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Congratulations to outfielder Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox for being recognized as the Baseball America High-A Player of the Year! For Salem in the Carolina League, Duran hit .387/.456/.543 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, and 18 SB in 50 games. That’s good for a 191 wRC+, which is obviously quite nuts.

However, Duran actually spent most of the 2019 season at Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs, where he hit a mere .250/.309/.325 with only 1 HR and 19 RBI. Even when you account for his 28 SB (against only 8 times caught), that’s good for only a 87 wRC+. However, despite his hiccup with the bat, Duran is a potential plus defensive outfielder, although he’s still transitioning from his original position of second base.

FanGraphs isn’t hugely big on his future potential value, giving him a 45 where 50 is a potential average Major League player. They’re high on his speed, of course, giving him a 70 out of a potential 80. But his other current and future potential values are not what you’d expect from a Player of the Year.

From Fangraphs

Hit: 40 / 55
Game Power: 30 / 40
Raw Power: 45 / 45
Speed: 70 / 70
Field: 40 / 50
Throws: 40 / 40
Future Value: 45

Of course, if Duran does become the plus defender in center field his speed and athleticism suggest, he would instantly be at least a league-average center fielder in the Majors. Saving runs in center field is extremely valuable. It should be noted that Duran was an excellent second baseman, but the Sox organization felt his athleticism was wasted at the position. The below-average arm doesn’t matter as much in center field, either.

The rest of the scouting report suggests that if he refines his baserunning instincts, he could be an easy 30 SB threat in the Majors. The question is if his hit tool develops enough to become a .300 hitter in the Majors. His plate discipline is decent enough and if he takes full advantage of his speed, the Sox have a really good player here.

It should be noted that the Steamer projection already sees Jarren Duran as a .281/.324/.402 hitter right now. Before you factor in his potential stolen bases, that’s already a 86 wRC+. Of course, that projection is heavily influenced by that Single-A outburst. But for a 23-year old with an ETA of 2022, the Sox could have a really nice late bloomer that can play both second base and center field.

What do you think of Jarren Duran as a prospect? I find it hard to get excited about a guy who dominates Single-A then stumbles so badly at Double-A. Of course, the former 7th-round draft selection Duran has his fans. Heck, he was included in the famous (infamous?) Gary Vee Direct 360 set. Unsurprisingly with the Baseball America prospect spotlight now placed on him, Jarren Duran’s cards are now listed in the $8 to $10 range.

As of this writing, the Gary Vee Direct 360 card is the only official Bowman rookie card for Duran and two minor league cards from the Salem Red Sox and New York Penn League (from his time in 2018 with the Lowell Spinners). Duran is definitely an intriguing prospect and I like his potential, but I tend to put my faith in FanGraphs scouting ratings. Could Duran blow away his ratings and ride his speed all the way to the top? He certainly could. Only time will tell.

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Boston Red Sox Cards - 1964 Topps “Sox Sockers” Carl Yastrzemski and Chuck Schilling

9/12/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
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Even most casual baseball fans know who Carl Yastrzemski is, one of the greatest Boston Red Sox players ever. But, on this 1964 Topps card entitled “Sox Sockers”  he’s sharing the card with  the Red Sox second baseman at the time. That's the slick fielding Chuck Schilling.

Far as I know, Chuck Schilling is of no relation to the much more famous pitcher Curt Schilling. What I do know is that Chuck Schilling was not a socker. He hit just 8 home runs in 1963, with a .234 batting average and .610 OPS… 1963 was actually the last time Chuck would be above replacement level.

Meanwhile, Yaz had an awesome 1963, winning his first batting title and leading the American League in hits, doubles, walks, and OBP. It was also Yaz’s first All-Star nod. Schilling hit those 8 HR… and was worth 1 WAR with the glove. The poor OPS wasn’t enough to make Schilling valuable, though. He was worth a mere 0.2 WAR in 146 games. He’d been about just as good with the glove in 1962, but even worse with the bat.

That all being said, Topps did have reason to believe that Schilling may eventually find his stroke at the major league level. After all, Schilling did bat .340 in the D league (today's A ball) and .314 at AAA. Those are obviously good marks. That offensive potential never came to be realized in the Majors. But, you can understand their optimism based on those past minor league performances.


However, Chuck Schilling DID have one very good season in MLB. That was his rookie year in 1961. Despite a mere .666 OPS, Schilling did have a .340 on-base percentage in a league-leading 737 plate appearances that year. His baseball stats didn’t look bad at all for a defensive-minded second baseman either: .259 batting average, 5 HR, 62 RBI, plus 7 stolen bases. However, he was caught 6 times, so his stolen bases weren’t so valuable.

But, where Schilling really shined in 1961 was with the glove. He led the league in assists at second base, 2nd in double plays turned, and was worth a whopping SIXTEEN runs above average by Total Zone at the keystone. Obviously, that final stat led the league. Had they been awarded at the time, Schilling would’ve won the Gold Glove, and it would’ve been entirely deserved. His defensive WAR? 1.9!


Unfortunately, Schilling never really developed with the bat. Part of that was due to a wrist injury suffered in 1962. At least in 1963 his 25 doubles and 8 HR gave him some offensive value. By 1964, he simply was too much of a liability with the bat and his play in the field began to suffer.

Schilling sort of rebounded as a bench player in 1965 before being traded after the season to the Minnesota Twins. He’d be on the Twins roster to start 1966 - as rosters were allowed to have 28 players until May 15. But, when the rosters reverted to 25 men, he retired rather than be forced to accept a minor league assignment.


Chuck Schilling did OK for himself after that, teaching high-school math on Long Island and playing competitive softball all the way until he was 69. As of 2020, Chuck Schilling is still with us. Had Schilling not suffered that wrist injury, it’s likely he would’ve stuck around as a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman for quite a few years. Fortunately, we have this and other baseball cards to remember his career by. 

Thanks for the memories, Chuck Schilling!
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Jose Canseco: The Red Sox Years

9/8/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
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In one of the better trades the Red Sox made in the 1990’s, the Red Sox traded speedy, defensive minded outfielder Otis Nixon and infielder Luis Ortiz to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Jose Canseco. Obviously, it was a bit of a salary dump, with the Rangers clearly thinking they could replace Canseco’s bat with defense. To be honest, anyone with a brain at that time probably saw this wouldn’t work out.

Otis Nixon actually had an OK year for the Rangers in 1995, although Total Zone didn’t love his defense (-4 runs below average). He did, however, post a very good .354 OBP, and stole 50 bases - albeit being caught 24 times. He was worth 1.3 WAR, which isn’t terrible, of course. Luis Ortiz was… awful. Nixon would move onto the Blue Jays for 1996, so really the Rangers just saved some money..


Jose Canseco’s Solid 1995 Season with the Red Sox

With one year left on Canseco’s contract, the Red Sox were happy to take on a guy who hit 31 HR in just 111 games during the strike-shortened 1994 season. They wouldn’t be disappointed as he would help anchor a Red Sox lineup that included Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Tim Naehring, Troy O’Leary, and Mike Greenwell (who was in his last season as an above-average regular). Canseco would hit 24 home runs with a .306 batting average, his highest since 1988. Canseco also reached an important milestone, as his final home run of the season off of Jesse Orosco was the 300th of his career.

The Red Sox would make the playoffs, making it Canseco’s first postseason trip in five years.However, Canseco would go 0-for-13, with 2 walks, in the 1995 American League Division Series. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise good season.


Jose Canseco’s Hot Start to 1996 Season, Followed by Back Trouble

The Red Sox would resign Canseco in 1996. It all started off well, and in 96 games he would hit 28 HR and hit .289/.400/.589. Back troubles would cause Canseco to miss all of August and most of September.  In fact, Canseco hit 26 of his 28 homers before the All-Star break, and he wouldn’t even hit a home run after July 17th.

Still, in just 198 games between 1995 and 1996, Canseco was worth 5.6 WAR. I’d say that was more than worth a year of Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz…


Canseco Reunites with McGwire in Oakland, Red Sox Get Cash and “Wayback” Wasdin

After the 1996 season, Canseco would be reunited with “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire as he was traded back to the Oakland A’s for … “Wayback” John Wasdin & cash. While that sounds like a terrible trade, it actually would work out for the Red Sox in the long run. Despite his longball issues, Wasdin would overall be a useful pitcher. He’d eventually be a key part of a trade that brought Rolando Arrojo, Rick Croushore, and former Expo All-Star Mike Lansing to Boston. Lansing would be awful, and Croushore was ineffective in 5 games, but Arrojo was a nice find and put the Sox in the positive for that trade.

Of course, Canseco’s back troubles would linger in Oakland, but he’d still hit a few home runs along “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire. Then, of course, he’d put together a few more decent seasons, along with a monster season in Toronto in 1998, a very good season in Tampa Bay in 1999, and hung on in 2000 and 2001 to hit a few more home runs and still be a productive hitter when healthy.


My Thoughts on Jose Canseco’s Legacy

Of course, Jose Canseco is a very controversial figure in baseball. Canseco and his two books revealed the extent of the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) in baseball, which understandably upset a lot of people. Despite hitting 462 HR in his career with a very good 132 OPS+ over 17 years, Canseco will likely never get near the Hall of Fame for reasons that stretch beyond his own use of PEDs.

However, Jose Canseco remains a very popular figure in the baseball card hobby. Many collectors have created a sort of Cardboard Hall of Fame for Canseco and his cards are still highly sought after. Since his career began in the Junk Wax era and he was such a massively popular player in his time, there’s no shortage of Jose Canseco baseball cards to collect. Heck, Canseco continues to appear in current baseball card sets as recently as 2019! While he may never get a plaque at Cooperstown, Canseco will never be forgotten by the game of baseball.

...

P.S. Fun fact: Jose Canseco made his Major League pitching debut against, guess who, the RED SOX, in May of 1993. He gave up three runs on 2 hits and 3 walks...

Not so fun fact: Because of that pitching appearance, Canseco would need Tommy John surgery (elbow ligament replacement surgery) and miss the rest of the season. It also didn't help his back issues...
  Missing the rest of that season, and the extra damage to his already ailing back, also likely cost him the chance at 500 HR. What do you think?

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The Year of Sonny Siebert - 1971 Red Sox

9/7/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
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The Red Sox had some pretty good players back in the 1970’s. But, one you may not have heard nearly as much about was Sonny Siebert. A starting pitcher who was better known for his years with the Cleveland Indians, Siebert was mediocre in two of his four full seasons with the Red Sox. However, he was quite good in 1970, and won 15 games with a fine 3.44 ERA. He would be much better in 1971.

The Sox acquired Siebert along with Vicente Romo and Joe Azcue for Dick Ellsworth, Ken Harrelson, and Juan Pizarro. As Red Sox trades go, this was actually a good one for Boston. Azcue and Romo were replacement level, but Harrelson and Pizzaro only had one good year for Cleveland and Ellsworth never really did much after that. Pizzaro would have another good season later with the Cubs. Of course, that means the Red Sox won this trade, because although Siebert was mediocre in 1969 and 1973, he was quite good in between.


A lot went right for Sonny Siebert in 1971. Not only did he pitch very well, winning 16 games with a 2.91 ERA, but Sonny also had a great year with the BAT. That’s right, folks. American League pitchers still had to come to bat until 1973. What’s particularly incredible about Siebert’s 1971 season with the bat is that in no other season did he come close to being that good. In 1971, he hit .266/.289/.532 with 6 HR and 15 RBI. His career marks? .173/.204/.270 with 12 HR. Crazy fluke or not, it was a really nice year for Sonny.
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Why I Believe Mark McGwire Belongs in the Hall of Fame

9/6/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Baseball Fan
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A recent conversation with my buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. So, naturally, I needed to get down my thoughts about the “big boys” in McGwire, Sosa, and of course, Barry Bonds.

The opinions I have on these players may not be the most popular. However, for sports card hobby fans, you may actually like my opinions on Mark McGwire, and why - like Roger Clemens - he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame anyway.

Warning, lots and lots and lots of “advanced,” “dopey,” “geeky” statistics to follow… :D


Mark McGwire Set HR Records Early On!

Mark McGwire was a star with the bat very early on, starring in college for USC and hitting 53 home runs in his three years there. Thirty-one of those homers came in his junior year in only 65 games. He also hit .388. Unsurprisingly, those 31 HR broke the USC single-season record set just the season before of 19 by, hey, Mark McGwire!  

After being drafted 10th overall by the Oakland A’s and starring the 1984 Olympics, “Big Mac” would be underwhelming in his first minor league action. McGwire quickly made adjustments, of course, and promptly began crushing the minor leagues starting in 1985. After a strong showing at A, McGwire took AA and AAA by storm in 1986, resulting in a cup of coffee in late 1986. It wasn’t an exciting beginning to his career, but he did hit his first 3 of his 583 homers he’d eventually hit in his career.


Mark McGwire’s Massive Rookie of the Year Campaign

Obviously, McGwire blew away the competition for Rookie of the Year. But, beyond the baseball card stats, McGwire’s rookie season was particularly exceptional because of his ISO (Isolated Power) mark. ISO is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to get an idea of that player’s true raw power display. With that .329 ISO mark, McGwire was truly dominating with the bat.

While McGwire would have a few more big seasons with the bat early on, it took awhile for “Big Mac” to replicate that raw power. Part of that is playing at the Oakland Coliseum, known as a park not all that friendly to home run hitters. It seemed over the next few years that McGwire was going to develop into a “true three outcomes” type of hitter: meaning whenever he stepped to the plate, you’d expect a walk, strikeout, or home run. Of course, that wasn’t a problem as long as he was producing, even when the batting averages began to dip.

That is, until 1991.


What Happened to McGwire in 1991?

The back of the baseball card tells part of the story: .201 batting average, only 22 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, the A’s weren’t too great in 1991, either. But, it was Big Mac’s first below average season. To save the humiliation of potentially having his average dip below .200, manager Tony LaRussa actually sat him for the last game of the season. Fortunately for McGwire, that poor batting average was in part because of a .214 BABIP, which obviously is extremely low. Mac’s strikeout rate didn’t rise all that much and his walk rate was still stable. 

There were some other easy explanations for that dramatic drop in production. McGwire was having marriage problems that would inevitably end in divorce. He said he didn’t “lift a weight” all season, so conditioning was certainly a problem. But, McGwire also received vision therapy, something that would improve his already above-average plate discipline even more so in the second half of his career.


McGwire’s Bounceback Season of 1992

In 1992, the world pretty much forgot about his awful 1991 because he came back in a big way with a .268 batting average, 42 HR and 104 RBI. That performance was backed up by a .385 on base percentage and .585 slugging percentage, good for a 176 OPS+. Keep in mind that OPS+ is park-adjusted, and he played half his games in Oakland. That meant his performance was 76 percent better than league average. That’s pretty incredible. Most notably his ISO was back up to .317, his highest mark since his rookie year. 

He would start to build on that rebound, too, until something happened in 1993 that likely changed the course of his career - for better or for worse.


The “Lost” Seasons of 1993 and 1994 for McGwire & the 1995 & 1996 Monster Years

The 1993 season got off to a fantastic start for McGwire who hit .333/.467/.726 in his first 27 games before foot injuries essentially ended his season. He’d try to come back in 1994, and hit “only” .252/.413/.474 in 47 games, still struggling to stay on the field. It was also during this time that McGwire started using more steroids. He’d started using them in the 1989-90 offseason, but started using them more so to recover from injuries. At least, that’s what McGwire claimed.

Something definitely happened, though, because when McGwire got back into playing full time in 1995, he hit a massive .274/.441/.685 (good for a 200 OPS+!) with 39 HR and a huge .410 ISO. In just 104 games, McGwire was worth 5.5 WAR. Then, in 1996, McGwire launched 52 HR with a crazy .312/.467/.730 batting line (196 OPS+) and a .419 ISO. In 130 games, McGwire was worth 6.4 WAR. Trouble was, both of those A’s teams were terrible. Also, McGwire’s contract was up after the 1997 season. So, what would the A’s do?


The Mark McGwire Trade and the St. Louis Years

In 1997, McGwire wasn’t slowing down. He hit .284/.383/.628 with 34 HR in 105 games. It wasn’t quite the same crazy isolated power... not yet. The A’s, needing desperately to inject some fresh blood into the team, decided to trade their superstar slugger to the St. Louis Cardinals for three pitchers. Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein never amounted to much, although T.J. Mathews pitched some decent innings. Of course, in retrospect, it was a very underwhelming trade.

McGwire went on to hit 24 more HR with a .253/.411/.684 batting line - and an isolated power of .431. I don’t think I have to say much about how ridiculous that is, but consider that old Busch Stadium was a lot friendlier to hit at than the Oakland Coliseum. In fact, in 280 career games at Old Busch Stadium, McGwire hit .286.450.726 with 119 HR. That’s compared to .252/.380/.535 with 166 HR in 654 games! Such is the difference a ballpark can make.

Of course, Busch Stadium helped, but in 1998, McGwire would take it all to a brand new level. While the A’s hoped that McGwire would return to Southern California, and hopefully the A’s, McGwire approved of his new Missouri digs and re-upped with the Cardinals. It would be a good decision.


The Record Year: McGwire Beats Maris, Sosa, and the World (‘til Bonds, of course)

Of course, from McGwire’s own admissions in 2010 of having used steroids, 1998 was the key year that he used performance enhancing drugs. At this point, St. Louis had suffered through some mediocre years and baseball was still reeling from the player’s strike just three years before. The 1998 Cardinals wouldn’t be a world beating team, but they would be a winning one. It’s fair to say a lot of it had to do with their first baseman.

It also didn’t hurt that the 1998 Cardinals were actually a decent hitting team, with Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan having fine seasons, along with Delino DeShields and a young third baseman named Fernando Tatis. (Yes, the dad of Tatis Jr.) Unfortunately, a young Matt Morris and still effective Todd Stottlemyre couldn’t save a mediocre pitching staff.

In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa got into one of the craziest home run races in recent memory. It would end up becoming historic. Ken Griffey Jr. was in the hunt for awhile, but he’d match his 1997 total of 56 in th end. It would be Mark McGwire that would break Roger Maris’ single-season record of 61, hitting his 62nd home run of 1998 against - most appropriately - Sosa and the Cubs. Of course, the Cubs and Cardinals being such major rivals made the home run race all that much more exciting. Sosa would finish with 66 HR. McGwire would finish with 70 HR.

Not only did McGwire finish with more home runs, setting the single-season record that would stand until Barry Bonds would eventually break it himself. McGwire just had a monster season overall, with a massive .299/.470/.752 batting line good for a ridiculous 216 OPS+. By contrast, Sosa would manage just a 160 OPS+.

Of course, it didn’t end there.


McGwire’s Final Years

1999 would be a step back for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they would go on to post a losing record. However, it was at no fault of McGwire, who would hit .278/.424/.697 for a 176 OPS+ with 65 HR. It would also be the year he’d hit his 500th HR, seemingly cementing his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

By 2000, though, as the Cardinals were getting better, McGwire’s body was breaking down. Incredibly, in 2000, McGwire still hit .305/.483/.746 with 32 HR  in only 89 games. He’d also hit a big home run in the playoffs. The 2001 Cardinals would be extremely good, but unfortunately, it was also the end of the road for the 37 year old slugger. He’d hit just .187/.316/.492, although he’d add 29 HR to his final career total and still manage a league-average-ish OPS of 105+. Even at the very end, Big Mac was still all about the home run.

Of course, it’s pretty obvious now that McGwire had some help. Yes, the ballpark move helped. But, that’s a crazy power spike to come seemingly out of nowhere.

Yeah, we know now, there was a reason for it. But, was it all the steroids?


So, Would McGwire Have Hit 70 HR Without Steroids?

McGwire maintains that he only used steroids to recover from injuries, for health reasons, not just to bulk up. While there’s likely some truth to that, there’s absolutely no doubt that McGwire realized the benefits to using steroids for bulking up. So, of course, there needs to be some asterisks put on those massive numbers. But, as we learned later from Jose Canseco, the number of players using steroids was so many… so, did it really lead to an unfair playing field?

Many people are hardliners on the use of performance-enhancing drugs like steroids. I certainly was a hardliner at one point. But as the years have gone on, I now feel that there is perhaps a chance to give at least one of those steroid-era sluggers a chance. I’ll look at other cases such as Raffy Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds later. But, I really feel like McGwire should still get a plaque in Cooperstown.

I feel that Oakland Coliseum probably stole a few home runs here and there from McGwire. Since home runs have such a massive impact on slugging percentage (as they count as four total bases, which is how slugging percentage is figured), losing just a handful here and there makes a big difference in overall batting lines. Here’s the thing. If steroids actually added about 100 points to McGwire’s slugging percentage, would McGwire still have been a Hall of Famer? 

McGwire’s career OPS+ is 163.  If we were to regress his slugging percentages even 100 points in those monster seasons, it’s likely that the total decreases significantly. But even if you subtract 20% of his home runs 1998 forward, you still have a Hall of Famer. The point is that steroids may have helped, but…


Did McGwire Just Become a Better Hitter?

Mcgwire claims that he didn't need the steroids to hit more home runs. He says that his vision therapy, close study of pitchers, and shortening his swing is what led to the home run rampage. Are these difficult to quantify improvements enough to relax the impact of steroids and brute strength alone?  

It has been proven time and time again if you are looking to hit home runs, and you have the raw ability to do so, you will hit more of them. Usually, however, there is a trade-off. Not with McGwire. Of course, steroids do not improve your plate vision. Hitting home runs, however, can indirectly improve your walk rate. That's because naturally pitchers are going to pitch around you more.

Yes, McGwire did have intentional walks. But not as many as you may think. He had 28 in 1998, which didn't even lead the league. He had 21 in 1999, which led the National League. But in 2000, he only had 12. Yes, he played only about half a season, but that’s still not a lot. 

The point of this boring story, as Chris Bodig at Cooperstown Cred likes to say, is that those walks were more a function of those Cardinals teams not really being that great. He was by far the best hitter on the team. Even if he were early career Mcgwire, those intentional walks still would've happened I would argue. Sure, he got quite a few intentional walks but not an absurd amount of them.


The Launch Angle

So, yes, I believe that a good amount of Mcgwire’s home run hitting was skill. Also keep in mind that the great hitters of the era such as Mcgwire, Sosa, and Bonds all to some.extent figured out the launch angle. Griffey Jr was a natural at it. He had such quick bat speed that if he hit the ball at a decent angle, it was usually gone. Probably the best example of the perfect EV plus LA swing was Hank Aaron's natural stroke.

I've speculated for years why the “Bash Brothers” McGwire and Canseco started juicing in the 1989-1990 offseason as Canseco claimed in his book and McGwire later admitted. Of course, Canseco always claimed it was to beef up and hit home runs. Mcgwire said it was for recovery purposes. I think in fact they are both correct. After all, Mcgwire did struggle with a couple of essentially lost seasons. But, I think that the timing of the juicing is awfully coincidental.

Keep in mind that 1989 was the year that “The Kid” Ken Griffey Jr was unleashed on baseball. Also, keep in mind how pretty much everyone in baseball saw him smashing all the records. A lot of other players, especially the sluggers, saw what this kid could do. I wouldn't say it was out of jealousy. Griffey Jr. wasn’t truly exceptional until 1990. But, I'm sure there were many sluggers in the game that wanted to emulate what Griffey could do to a baseball. Who wouldn't?

As we know today, the key to hitting home runs is "barrelling" the ball by finding the sweet spot between batted ball exit velocity and launch angle. Steroids were some sluggers way to bulk up to get that extra oomph behind the ball. But even back then, it was clear that the long ball became more of a priority after Griffey arrived on the scene. 

Looking back now, there was swing tweaking for sure and sluggers started working out and building muscle harder than ever. Remember,steroids are not magic pills. you still have to put in the work and you still have to be very talented with your sport. All they do is give you a bit of an edge.

 In fact, had Mcgwire and canseco not spent so many years in Oakland, their home run numbers would undoubtedly have been significantly higher. Griffey Jr could hit a ball out of anywhere on pure.talent alone. So yes, I am insinuating that there was some compensation going on to keep up with one of the greatest raw talents baseball has ever seen. I'm sure there was talk behind closed doors. 

Baseball is entertainment. Home runs are entertaining. If the whistle had never been blown by Canseco, we may never have known better.


So Why Should McGwire Be in the Hall of Fame?

McGwire’s feats probably saved baseball. Yes, steroids were bad for the game. It allowed a few guys to post video game numbers. But did the home run race destroy competitive balance? Absolutely not. The best team in 1998 was a New York Yankees team that win with pitching and a lineup that was more interested in working counts and taking bases rather than hitting lots of home runs. 

(The elephant in the room here of course is Roger Clemens, who allegedly used steroids to extend his career. I will certainly get to the Rocket in a future article!)

The Cardinals were not a good team. The Cubs were good, and won 90 games, but having someone hit 65 home runs does not win you playoff games. Are steroids cheating? Yes. Do they destroy the competition? Looking at the teams who inevitably made the playoffs and made deep runs. I'd say most certainly not. 

Also, I'm sure the list of steroids users is much longer than we know. I'm sure Canseco was right and the majority.of the game was probably juicing. In that case it's hardly unfair… The real issue, then, is how do these juiced numbers affect the record books, and just how sacred all those numbers?

We may never know.


Did Steroids Extend McGwire’s Career?

So, for me, the real argument against McGwire being in the Hall of Fame is this: did steroids extend his career? Without the steroids, would have McGwire's career instead petered out in Oakland? I'll spoil my Clemens article a bit by saying this, but I will say they likely helped a bit. But, we will just never know. Clemens certainly reinvented himself a bit as a pitcher in the second half of his career, and McGwire certainly showed great maturity as a hitter after the personal distractions and lost seasons.

I believe that with McGwire having opened up about his steroid use, and still being one of the most popular players of all time, I think Big Mac should get a chance to be in the Hall of Fame. If you choose just one of he, Bonds, and Sosa, to eventually get in, it seems the easy choice is Big Mac. I’m sure a lot of fans will agree. 

Is that to say I don't think that Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, and other exposed steroid users should get in? Each of those players deserves their own in depth look. As for McGwire, it may take awhile. Still, for the sake of representing history, McGwire should be inducted, even if his records are forever tainted. He was fun to watch and made coming to the ballpark and watching his teams play a joy. After all, isn't that what baseball about?

Also, watching Pedro Martinez strike McGwire out at the 1999 All Star Game. That, too.


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Who Was the Best Red Sox Player in 1993? Danny Darwin!

9/5/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
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Red Sox Trivia Time! Who was the best Red Sox player in 1993 by Wins Above Replacement? If you guessed Roger Clemens, you’d be wrong. Heck, even if you’d guessed young shortstop John Valentin you still won’t be correct. It was a 37-year old starting pitcher. His name: Danny Darwin.

Along with Frank Viola and a young Aaron Sele, Danny Darwin helped pick up the Red Sox pitching staff from an unusually poor season from Roger Clemens. Yes, Clemens was about merely average in 1993. Unfortunately, despite a pretty good starting staff, Paul Quantrill kept losing games - despite actually being a pretty decent reliever for most of his career. 

Also, despite Mo Vaughn having a good year, Mike Greenwell putting up one of his typically good years, and John Valentin being a very nice young player, the lineup wasn’t great. That’s with future Hall of Famer Andre Dawson at DH, being, sadly, rather mediocre. Those Red Sox finished 80-82 under Butch Hobson.

Of course, none of that was Danny Darwin’s fault. 


Danny Darwin’s Career Before the Red Sox

Actually, Darwin had a very interesting career. He actually only made 371 starts in his career out of his 716 career appearances. He actually spent a good deal of his career in the bullpen and was bounced back and forth from the starting rotation and bullpen for most of his career. However, after a nice run with the Texas Rangers, he went to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he had one and a half above-average seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros. He pitched very well and returned as a free agent.

In Houston from 1986 to 1990, Darwin would be worth 13.4 WAR, 5.3 of that coming in his 1990 season when he won the NL ERA title with a 2.21 mark. Darwin started 17 games that year with 3 complete games while also finishing 14 games and saving 2 games. Still, the Astros saw fit to see him leave as a free agent. The Red Sox were only too happy to add the solid Darwin to their pitching staff.


Danny Darwin with the Red Sox

By the time he got to the Red Sox in 1991, the “Bonham Bullet” had already put together a pretty nice career as a “swingman” - a guy who worked both as a starter and a reliever. Unfortunately, Darwin’s first season with the Red Sox didn’t go so well. In 12 starts, he delivered a 5.16 ERA while dealing with shoulder problems and battling pneumonia. Fortunately for both the Red Sox and Darwin, this would not be a free agent bust.

In 1992, Darwin rebounded with one of his typical swingman seasons. He started 15 games and finished 21 more, appearing in 51 total games over the season. Overall, his efforts were worth 2.6 WAR. But where Darwin truly excelled in 1992 was in the starting rotation in the season’s second half. He pitched only one game out of the bullpen. In his 15 starts, he had a 3.50 ERA and 2 complete games. It was a precursor to his best season in the major leagues, 1993.

In 1993, Darwin started 34 games, pitching 2 complete games, 1 of them a shutout. Despite a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.068 WHIP, his 4.29 FIP was a harbinger of things to come. Darwin had a really nice season, but things would go south after that. 

In the strike shortened 1994 season, the wheels fell off for Darwin. He started 13 games, and while he went 7-5, had a miserable 6.30 ERA. He was up and down and had a couple of clunkers mixed in between brilliant performances. But arm trouble led to him blowing up in June, after which he was shut down. It looked like the beginning of the end for Darwin, and it was certainly the end of Darwin’s Red Sox career.


Danny Darwin’s Last Hurrahs 

After an awful 1995 season split between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers, Darwin caught on with the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 40. He actually pitched pretty well with a 3.02 ERA in 19 starts!  Darwin was good enough to net relief pitcher Rich Loiselle from the Houston Astros at the trade deadline. That trade actually was a win for Pittsburgh, who got a very good rest of 1996, a solid rookie campaign as closer in 1997, and decent returns in 1998 before he forgot where the strike zone was and was never good again. Meanwhile, the Astros, who’d been happy to reacquire Darwin, watched him struggle and get released at season’s end.

But, that wasn’t the end for Darwin. He’d catch on with the White Sox in 1997, pitching 21 games, 17 of them starts. His 4.13 ERA was a bit of a mirage, but it was good enough for the Giants to acquire him along with Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez in a trade that famously didn’t work out well for the Giants. The White Sox ended up with a solid closer in Keith Foulke and a decent set-up man in Bob Howry. Darwin and Alvarez would both be mediocre, Hernandez would be fine, but Alvarez and Hernandez would end up with the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays next season.

Darwin would hang around with the Giants for 1998, getting into 33 games, 25 of them starts, and wasn’t particularly good at all. In fact, Darwin was “worth” -1.1 WAR that season. That was the end of Darwin’s playing days. However, Darwin has hung around the game and as recent as 2019 is still a minor league pitching coach.


Danny Darwin’s Career Overview

Overall, Danny Darwin was worth 39.8 WAR over 21 seasons. That includes some really awful seasons where his WAR totals were negative. He was actually significantly better as a reliever, although overall he was a decent slightly better than league-average starting pitcher when he got the call.

Starter: 371 starts, 2396 ⅓ innings, 4.04 ERA, 53 complete games, 9 shutouts, 2.2 K/BB ratio
Reliever: 345 appearances, 620 ⅓ innings, 3.06 ERA, 171 games finished, 32 saves, 2.29 K/BB ratio

The obvious knock against Darwin were his platoon splits. 

Vs Right-Handed Batters: 6216 PAs,.234/.281/.361 - .641 OPS

Vs Left-Handed Batters: 6500 PAs, .277/.338/.437 - .775 OPS

In today’s analytically-driven game, Darwin probably would’ve been limited against left-handed batters and probably relieved much more than he started. It’s also possible he would’ve faced fewer batters per season, which may have saved him some of the arm trouble. Darwin was indeed “Dr. Death” on right-handed batters and more analytically-inclined deployment may have made Darwin one of the greatest swingmen of all time.

Of course, Darwin’s career was just fine as it was. He gave Red Sox fans a great 1993 effort and along with his above-average work in 1992 made that 4 year contract at least mostly worth it. He’s still in the game today passing on his extensive knowledge of pitching to younger pitchers. Here’s to a great baseball career that hasn’t even yet ended. Thanks for all your efforts, Danny!. 


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Jason Varitek - The Red Sox Team Captain and His 2004 Career Year

9/2/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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The last team captain of the Boston Red Sox, Jason Varitek spent parts of 15 seasons with Boston. He made his major league debut with a base hit in his first and only major league at-bat in 1997. Varitek was acquired by the Red Sox along with pitcher Derek Lowe in the infamous trade for relief pitcher Heathcliff Slocumb. It’s not even close who won that deal, even if Lowe had never done anything. Varitek was the starting catcher in 10 different seasons for the Red Sox and only wasn’t in 2001 due to injury.

Varitek was also one of the most popular players in recent Red Sox history. He was loved by the pitching staff and anecdotally was an above-average defensive catcher. While he was a bit below average in throwing out opposing base stealers, I can say that he worked with some pitchers that were notoriously slow to the plate. The defensive metrics see him as an overall defensive negative, but a lot of those negatives came from his brutal final season in 2011. From all the years I watched him play, I’d say he was at worst perfectly average behind the dish - but above average as a pitch receiver.


Jason Varitek Was Mr. Average


While being average is really not exciting, in baseball being average is extremely valuable. If you look at Jason Varitek’s 162 game average, you’ll see that would he hit 20 HR and drove in 79 RBI in an average season. Those are solid baseball card stats, especially for a catcher. Because of his solid work behind the dish, though, those league-average offensive stats allowed him to be an above-average regular by WAR in 6 out of his 15 seasons.

2001: 1.4 WAR (in only 51 games)
2002: 2.1 WAR (132 games)
2003: 3.0 WAR (142 games)
2004: 4.0 WAR (137 games)
2005: 3.9 WAR (133 games)
2007: 2.3 WAR (131 games)

He wasn’t bad in his first full season in 1999, either, with 1.9 WAR in 144 games. But, Varitek did have some poor seasons with the bat. His rookie year of 1998 wasn’t too hot, and neither was 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008, or 2009. But with a career OPS+ of 99, you can see that on the balance, he was perfectly average offensively. The good news is that Varitek’s dWAR (WAR from Defense) is a positive 8.8 for his career. So, in fact, Varitek was ever so slightly better than average, before you count his “intangibles” such as team leadership.



Why Jason Varitek and His 2004 Season Were His Career Best

Most fans may believe 2005 was Varitek’s best year in the Major Leagues. He won the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and made his second American League All-Star Game roster! OK, he did deserve the Silver Slugger.with a 122 OPS+. However, 2005 was also one of Varitek’s worst defensive seasons if you believe the defensive metrics from Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved. Still, his overall contributions were worthy of an All-Star appearance and were worth 3.9 WAR to the Red Sox.

Of course, in 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series for the first time in 86 years! Best season ever!

OK, that’s not why, but yes, Varitek was a big part of the Red Sox success that season. Despite no accolades, he was worth a career-high 4.0 WAR to the regular season 2004 Sox. He also hit a career high .296 and a career high on-base percentage of .390. His offensive contributions amounted to a 121 OPS+. Defensively, Varitek was 3 runs above average by Total Zone’s metrics and perfectly average by DRS. 

In the postseason, Varitek was OK in the Division Series. But, he was a major contributor in the classic ALCS against the Yankees. While Varitek was a non-factor in the World Series, it didn’t matter. 

Speaking of the postseason, in 2007, Varitek’s bat didn’t show up in the Division Series, but it did in the League Championship against the Indians and in the World Series versus the Rockies. So, Varitek really did help the Sox win their 2nd ring in 4 years.


Jason Varitek’s Legacy

Various injuries and trouble in his personal life did affect Varitek’s on-field performance at times. But, Varitek was loved by his teammates and is anecdotally one of the more underrated catchers of his era. In fact, I can’t think of another catcher that was as consistently league-average as Varitek. 

The only ones better I can think of offensively are Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mike Piazza. “Pudge” and Piazza are Hall of Famers and Posada has a case for a plaque. “Pudge” was easily the best defensively of his era. Joe Mauer was obviously great early in his career, too, which started towards the end of Tek’s own career. 

Sure, Tek isn’t a Hall of Famer. But, he did have a very nice peak and hit better than you’d expect from your typical catcher.The defensive metrics also mostly show that Varitek was in fact a very good catcher on defense. We don’t have pitch framing metrics for that time period, but I can almost guarantee he would’ve been among the league leaders. In fact, had Varitek not played in the same era as Pudge Rodriguez, it’s likely he’d be remembered as one of the best of his era without question, behind only Jorge Posada. 

It’s an old baseball saying that great teams are great up the middle. So, it’s no surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees had two of the best catchers in the game during their respective eras. Sure, Varitek didn’t come close to Hall of Fame standards. But, he was at least the #3 or #4 overall catcher in the American League in his peak years. Catchers like Tek don’t come along everyday, and you’d be hard-pressed to ever expect another one to come along. 


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