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MLB - Top 6 Best Transactions for the 2015 Boston Red Sox

10/11/2015

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Picture
Wade Miley. Image (c) Keith Allison on Flickr, used under Creative Commons.
The 2015 season was mostly a disaster for the Boston Red Sox. Major free agent signings Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were major negatives, Rick Porcello had a horrendous season (on top of being promised an ace-level contract for the next few seasons), and Justin Masterson proved to be washed up. But there were some good young contributors, and the Sox did a few decent things. After a terrible season, let’s look at 6 things they got right.

#6 Trading for Robbie Ross (0.8 WAR)

After a failed transition to starting, the Texas Rangers traded Ross to Boston for Anthony Ranaudo. Ranaudo was hit pretty hard at Triple A Round Rock and was batted around in 2 starts. While his strikeout rate improved in the minors, he's still walking more batters than you'd like and being hit hard. Ross was mediocre in the early going for the Sox as a lefty specialist but when he was used for full innings later in the year, he excelled. All told he looked like the above average reliever he was in 2012 and 2013. He's cheap in arbitration next season, as well. For now it looks like the Sox made out here.

#5 Trading for Alejandro De Aza (1.3 WAR, 60 games)

Acquired by the Sox from the Orioles for minor league swingman Joe Gunkel, the Red Sox got surprisingly good production out of De Aza. After being an above average outfielder offensively and passable defensively,  he was traded in August to the Giants for minor league pitcher Luis Ysla. This second trade was one of the first moves made by new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. It was to make room on the roster for more playing time for Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley.  While Ysla is a wild card, the Sox got great value out of a streaky player in De Aza and flipped him for similar value as they traded for him.

#4 Signing Rich Hill as a free agent in August (1.6 WAR, 4 starts)

After appearing in a handful of games as a strict left handed batter specialist for the Yankees in 2014, Rich Hill bounced around a bit in 2015 and eventually found himself in the independent leagues. After 2 strong starts, incoming new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski decided to bring in Hill to make a few starts at the end of the season. After years of arm trouble and mostly being deployed as a short reliever in recent years, Hill made 4 very good starts, two of them excellent. It will be interesting to see if he gets another chance in the Sox rotation or somewhere else in 2016 as a 36-year old.

#3 Acquiring Wade Miley (2.5 WAR, 32 starts)

The trade of Allen Webster and Rubby de la Rosa for Wade Miley was meant as trading potential for consistency. Webster blew up in Arizona and it seems the Diamondbacks will be lucky to get a middle reliever out of him.  De La Rosa has potential but surrendered an absurd amount of home runs both at home and on the road. There's still back end starter potential, though.

The trade looked pretty bad for the Sox, too, as Miley had a horrendous first half. However, it seemed he was getting extremely unlucky on balls in play. In the second half of the season he was exactly the pitcher the Sox traded for. While former general manager Ben Cherington may have jumped the gun in giving him a preseason extension, it's looking okay now. Miley is a solid rotation anchor. Even if de La Rosa pans out as a decent starter and Webster finds himself, it's still a good trade for the Sox.

#2 Recalling Jackie Bradley Jr from Triple A Pawtucket (2.2 WAR in 74 games)

While not a trade or free agent signing, recalling a player from the minors is indeed a transaction, so Jackie Bradley’s return to the majors counts. His offensive struggles continued in his first stint in the Majors in 2015, and he struggled again when he returned the second time. But all of a sudden, Bradley exploded offensively. With his usual above average defense, Bradley put up production worthy of a league-average regular in only half of a season. That’s also with some struggles at the end of the season. It’s hard to say how much of that offensive outburst was for real, but at least the Sox know that he won’t be a negative on offense anymore.

#1 Recalling Eduardo Rodriguez from Triple-A Pawtucket (2.5 WAR in 21 starts)

While Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, and Rusney Castillo all got their feet wet in the majors this season and made positive contributions, no one made the impact upon arriving from the minor leagues that Eduardo Rodriguez did. While Andrew Miller was excellent for the Orioles after being traded for him, it’s likely that Miller would have ended up with the Yankees in the offseason anyway. Therefore, this trade looks like one of the best that Ben Cherington ever made. Rodriguez got off to a hot start, had a few real stinkers, but rebounded to have an above-average season overall. He’s going to be cheap for the next couple of years and it will be interesting to see if they decide to give him a contract extension to lock in arbitration seasons.
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MLB - Red Sox Projected Arbitration Salaries for 2016

10/6/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
Picture
Junichi Tazawa of the Boston Red Sox. Image (c) Keith Allison on Flickr, used under Creative Commons
With the Boston Red Sox falling well short of expectations in 2015, despite a strong second half, it’s time to look to the offseason. Many teams have some tough choices when it comes to choosing which of their arbitration-eligible players to keep around. The Sox have some fairly obvious choices ahead of them, but still, let’s take a look at the seven players who are looking to build off of this year’s salaries.

Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors for these projected 2016 salaries and MLB service times (in seasons).

Alexi Ogando (5.114) – $2.4MM

Unlike most of the players that the Sox took fliers on in 2015, Ogando seemed relatively successful. He did end up experiencing some big-time home run problems in the second half, and while his 3.99 ERA is respectable, his 5.32 FIP shows plenty of red flags. FanGraphs rates his performance at -0.9 WAR based on that FIP. While $2.4 million is hardly a big sum for a decent reliever, non-tendering Ogando seems like a decent plan to mitigate the potential risk that he may implode. As is, the Sox have other options.

(NOV 6 UPDATE: Ogando was outrighted to Triple-A. He refused the assignment and became a free agent.)


Junichi Tazawa (5.086) – $3.3MM

Despite a complete inability to close out games, Tazawa was still worth 1.1 WAR to the Sox this year according to FanGraphs. This assessment would suggest that Taz’s 4.14 ERA was a bit unlucky. His 3.05 FIP based on his strong strikeout rates and fine strikeout-to-walk ratio is consistent with his track record. There have been concerns about how many “bullets” Taz has left, but a high .349 batting average on balls in play this year suggest his stuff is just fine and a few more balls found holes than probably should have occurred. A sum around $3-3.5 million on a one-year deal is fine for the solid set-up man.

Anthony Varvaro (3.121) – $700K

Non-tender candidate, who could possibly get a minor league deal with a spring training invite. He didn’t pitch at all after May. At best, he’s a serviceable middle reliever.

Joe Kelly (3.101) – $3.2MM

Kelly has been a bit of an enigma over the course of his career. His electric stuff hasn’t always translated to the results that you might expect. While he has had bursts of brilliance in the past, 2015 actually has been his best overall season in terms of value (1.2 WAR). While his 4.82 ERA suggests mediocrity, his 4.18 FIP suggests that he’s a solid member of a pitching rotation. In 2015, he has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and best strikeout rate overall. Even if he’s only a league-average starting pitcher going forward, anything under $4 million is a bargain. Definitely worth keeping around.

Robbie Ross (3.100) – $1.1MM

Picking up a handful of saves late in the season made Robbie Ross Jr. look pretty good. This is a guy who was a pretty solid reliever in 2012 and 2013 for the Texas Rangers. A failed experiment to transition him back to starting, as he had in the minors, was an absolute disaster. Despite some early season struggles, Ross seemed to profile as the guy he once was. While he was worth only 0.1 WAR to the Sox in about 61 innings, he’s been a 0.8-0.9 WAR reliever before. Taking a $1 million gamble on him seems worth it, especially when a 1 WAR reliever is worth about $5 million on the open market.

Ryan Cook (3.086) – $1.4MM

Cook was once an extremely good reliever, but now he’s damaged goods. Non-tender candidate, but like Ogando, could return on a minor league deal.

(NOV 6 UPDATE: Cook was claimed by the Chicago Cubs off of waivers. They will now decide his fate.)


Jean Machi (2.154) – $900K

Machi had an amazing 2013 for the Giants. He was respectable in 2014 for the World Champions, as well. But the wheels fell off in 2015. The Red Sox grabbed him for a song and actually gave him a shot at closing. Despite being a nightmare in the role, Machi compiled 4 saves. In fact, despite the 5.09 ERA, his peripherals weren’t far off from 2014 for the Sox. He’s probably still a serviceable reliever. The most interesting thing about Machi is the fact that he has a reverse platoon split - in that right-handed batters light him up (.959 OPS), but lefties can’t hit him (.530 OPS). but the Sox can non-tender him and bring him back on a non-guaranteed deal without thinking too hard about it. Those reverse platoon splits could make him a nice non-traditional pickup for a team that may need help out of the bullpen against tough lefty batters.

(NOV 6 UPDATE: Machi was outrighted from the 40-man roster.  He elected to become a free agent.)

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