by Richard Rowell, Sports Break

Kyle Hendricks had a great year in 2016 for the Chicago Cubs. His 2.13 ERA was the best in the Major Leagues, ahead of his teammate Jon Lester. Part of this success can be attributed to having perhaps the most valuable changeup in the Major Leagues in 2016. FanGraphs rates his changeup at 21.1 runs above average. The next best changeup was David Price's at 15.3 runs above average, and his is already known to be well above-average.
 
It doesn't hurt that Hendricks' fastball was also worth 13.8 runs above average. Even his curveball was slightly above average at 0.8 runs. Speaking of valuable fastballs, Hendricks' teammate Jake Arrieta had the best in 2016 with 32.23 runs above average.
 
While Hendricks stranded an unusually high number of runners and had some good luck on balls put in play this year, he's definitely a fine pitcher moving forward. While I doubt he'll repeat an ERA in the low 2's next year, he's one of the better pitchers in baseball.

D'Angelo Jimenez was an infielder who played in the Major Leagues from 1999 to 2007 for several different teams. He began with the New York Yankees and moved on to the San Diego Padres when he was traded for reliever Jay Witasick in late June 2001. Witasick had a poor ERA, but strong peripherals for the Yankees.

Jimenez wasn't great for the Padres, though he posted a strong OBP of .355 in 86 games for the Friars. So that trade worked out well for the Padres. Jimenez wasn't too great in 2002 for the Padres, but he was traded to the White Sox for Alex Fernandez and Humberto Quintero. That trade didn't work out at all for the Padres. It did for Chicago. The White Sox got a .791 OPS in 27 games from Jimenez. They also got plus solid infield defense. Jimenez was worth 1.4 WAR in those few games.

Jimenez received plenty of playing time and continued to be a decent hitting infielder through the first half of 2003 for the White Sox. But he had some issues early on with the glove. He was then was traded to the Cincinnati Reds for Scott Dunn, who never did anything for the White Sox or anyone else. But Jimenez continued to play well, and actually put up a .785 OPS in 73 games while still playing solid defense. He was a slightly above average starter in only 73 games, amassing 2.2 WAR between offense and defense. This was a nice surprise, after struggling with the glove with the White Sox. 2004 would be Jimenez's big year, his career year. He played 152 games and put up 3.6 WAR with once again good defense and a decent .758 OPS. His 2004 earned him a nice raise to over $2.8 million in 2005. Unfortunately, things fell apart for him after that.

2005 was miserable for Jimenez. He only played 35 games and was let go in October. He hung on for a couple more years getting into games for the Texas Rangers, Oakland A's, and Washington Nationals. He continued to play in the independent leagues and Mexican leagues. This earned him a couple more chances in major league organizations. 2013 would be his last professional season, which he spent with the independent Camden Riversharks and Newark Bears.

All in all, Jimenez has been worth 8 WAR in his career with a couple of decent seasons under his belt. He's had a few decent minor league season since then, but his skills seem to be deteriorating. His numbers in the Mexican league were pretty good in 2011, but his independent league numbers since haven't been as great. His final professional appearance was for Licey of the Domincan Winter League, in which he went 2 for 4 in 4 games. It was a nice way to go out. D'Angelo has had himself a nice baseball career, and while his baseball career is now certainly over, he's had a great run.

by Richard Rowell, Sports Break

When the Kansas City Royals traded lefty Brandon Finnegan to the Reds for Johnny Cueto, some people thought they overpaid. But the Royals were probably right to "sell high" on him. While Finnegan won 10 games in 31 starts with a 3.98 ERA in 2016 with the Reds, there are warning signs that he was probably better off in the bullpen where the Royals had him.
 
Finnegan had a high 4.4 BB/9 against only a 7.6 K/9 in 2016. That's not a great ratio. He also gave up a lot of homers, not surprisingly more at home at Great American Ball Park, which is a homer heaven. But away he walked almost twice as many batters as he did at home (14.7% BB on the road vs 7.9% BB at home.) Really, he didn't pitch well anywhere.
 
Honestly, if you're in a "keeper" fantasy league or something, I'd sell high on him or just not keep him around. The Reds would probably be smart to not keep him in the rotation long-term, either.

by Richard Rowell, Sports Break

Back in December of 2013, I wasn’t very nice to the Colorado Rockies front office for their signing of left-handed relief pitcher, Boone Logan.

This is what I said on December 13, 2013.

“I would definitely like to know what's going on inside the minds of the Rockies front office. I do understand why they would like to have Boone Logan as a left-handed specialist in their bullpen. They do have Rex Brothers and Josh Outman from the left side already, both of whom are already pretty tough on left-handers, Brothers, especially.

But Logan is a nice piece to add to any bullpen. He's been worth 3.2 WAR over the past four years (with the Yankees!), so he's actually been a bit underrated. But $16.5 million for a guy you don't REALLY need? Aren't the Rockies supposedly on a tight budget? Lefty specialists are overpaid enough already. Now we have one making over $5 million a year. The Rockies needed to get another cheap starter, not a guy who will throw about 150 innings over three years!

Good for Boone, though.”


A couple days later, I provided some much more in-depth analysis:


“Boone Logan is a perfectly good left-handed reliever. Yes, he's really only good against lefties. In his career, lefties have batted only .243/.312/.378 while right-handers have hit .297/.379/.475. Those numbers against right-handed batters are awfully awful. Fortunately, Logan has been even more effective against lefties recently (.221/.274/.377 in 2013). Oddly, he was actually WORSE against lefties in 2011: .789 OPS from left-handed batters and only a .673 OPS from right-handed batters. Even then, he was still effective overall. He's just been a solid pitcher for the past four seasons with New York.

Understandably, a good number of teams had interest in the left-hander. He's been worth an average of 0.8 WAR over the past four years, so a deal worth about $8-10 million over a couple of years made some sense. But the Colorado Rockies apparently wanted him more than everyone else, because they threw $16.5 million and three years at him. Let us ponder that contract for a moment. That is $5 million plus to a pitcher who will throw about 50-60 innings in each of the next three seasons. He could be worth about 80 percent of that. He could also get smacked around in games at Coors Field and become essentially replacement level. It's not like this guy is some sort of elite. Heck, he got more money than Joe Smith, and Smith is a better reliever. Smith has been worth 1.4 WAR on average in the past four seasons. From a WAR to dollars perspective, Smith may actually earn the $5 million a year he was given. That's going to be much more of a stretch for Logan.

What's more puzzling about this situation is that apparently Rockies director of baseball operations Bill Geivett was intent on signing a left-handed reliever. Reportedly, the Rockies were in on J.P. Howell, who is also a better pitcher than Logan. Howell, in fact, is just as good against lefties and is slightly better against right-handers. Howell is still available and a slightly inferior pitcher gets signed to a bigger deal that several superior relievers (including Javier Lopez) have already signed.

This is a major win for Boone Logan and his agent. The Rockies didn't need him since they had both Rex Brothers and Josh Outman who are already better than him against lefties. Brothers is actually ridiculous against lefties (career .549 OPS against lefties) and Outman is even better (career .523 OPS against). Logan will probably pitch just fine, but this is an incredibly curious use of money after signing a bargain in LaTroy Hawkins and acquiring a high-upside starter in Brett Anderson. Sometimes, their plans are simply never clear.”


To be fair, it’s probably a good thing that the Rockies signed Logan. Rex Brothers blew up, and besides having some good results in 2015, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since. Outman hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014 after having some serious issues with walks.


But Logan had a very rough 2014. Despite getting plenty of strikeouts, he also gave up a lot of home runs. In 2015, he was at least passable. His 2016, however, was very solid. After posting WAR marks of -0.4 and 0.3 in his first two seasons, he put up 0.8 WAR in 2016. Essentially he was worth 0.7 WAR over 3 seasons. While that’s not terrible for a reliever, really, that’s definitely not worth $16.5 million.


So I was right. This wasn’t a very smart move financially. But baseball wise, it wasn’t all too horrible. In any case, it worked out extremely well for Boone Logan!

by Richard Rowell, Sports Break

Sure, David Price is making the big bucks for the Boston Red Sox. But there's another guy making $20 million a year who pitches for the Sox. He's currently the ace of the team, too. His name is Rick Porcello.

 Yes, Rick has been a bit lucky this year. The fiery competitor only gave up 1.3 walks per 9 innings, which is the second best rate among starting pitchers in the Major Leagues in 2016. Interestingly, Josh Tomlin of the ALDS rival Cleveland Indians has the best rate. If you don't walk many people, you're not going to have a ton of people on base.

 To be fair, having only a .269 batting average on balls in play is a bit low. It's hard to expect Porcello to continue being this lucky on would-be hits. Obviously, the Sox defense has something to do with this. Still his FIP (fielding-independent ERA) is 3.40 compared to his "actual" ERA (earned run average) of 3.15. Even then, he's still a 5-win pitcher, and the best on the Red Sox.

 The only other thing that may be a warning sign is his expected FIP, which uses a normalized HR/9 rate. This brings his expected ERA close to 4, and hardly the caliber of an ace. But Porcello is still keeping the ball on the ground most of the time, as he has in the past. So it's possible that his home runs will be down going forward.

 It's a great thing that the Red Sox kept their faith in Porcello after a rough first season. The five-year extension that he received is looking like a smart decision now. While it's hard to say if he'll replicate these numbers in 2017, this is the pitcher that the Red Sox were after before the 2015 season. Right now, with David Price not quite living up to expectations, Rick is easily the team's ace.