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Steve Pearce in 2019: Will Pearce Be Even Better for the Boston Red Sox?

11/25/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media

Steve Pearce had quite the ride in the 2018 season between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. The 35-year old journeyman outfielder and first baseman was enjoying a decent year with the Blue Jays. Then, in late June of 2018, Steve Pearce was acquired by the Red Sox from the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Santiago Espinal.

With Steve Pearce signing a one-year. $6.25 million contract with Boston early in the off-season for the 2019 season, will Pearce be better or worse for the 2019 Red Sox?

Steve Pearce with the 2018 Blue Jays

Pearce got a late start to the 2018 season with Toronto. But when he finally did take the field, he got into 26 games and hit .291/.349/.519 with 4 home runs and 16 runs batted in. These are numbers that resembled his 2016 outburst with the Tampa Bay Rays and his previous career year with Baltimore in 2014. When the Red Sox came calling looking for depth in late June, they were only happy to take the prospect Espinal who was having a strong season in the minors for the Sox.

Steve Pearce with the 2018 Red Sox

No one really expected Pearce to perform even better for the Red Sox, raking to a .279/.394/.507 while mostly playing first base and designated hitter. He hit 7 home runs and had 26 runs batted in 50 games. His defense wasn’t the best, but he’s never been known for his glove.

Steve Pearce enjoyed the playoffs even more. Against the Yankees, he enjoyed a .333 batting average with 2 walks in 14 plate appearances. Against the Astros, he hit only .214, but added three walks, a double, and a home run. Then, the World Series was his best series yet, exploding for 3 home runs, 8 RBI, 4 walks, and a .333 batting average. That performed earned him the 2018 World Series MVP award.

Steve Pearce 2019 Projections?

The Steamer projection system listed at Fangraphs calls for a .266/.344/.468 batting line in 79 games. That would make him worth 1.1 WAR, which is about what he produced with the Sox in 2018. If that’s the case, he would be well worth that $6.25 million contract in 2019.

Pearce is considerably better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. He’s the perfect compliment to left-handed hitting first baseman Mitch Moreland for Boston. Pearce hit .265/.359/.469 against righties and a whopping .304/.400/.559 against lefties in 2018. Those splits aren’t that dissimilar to his career, although his batting line against righties was better than normal.

Steve Pearce should continue to be a strong role player for the Red Sox against left-handed pitching. If he carries over his improved on-base percentage from Boston in 2018, he could be even more valuable than the projection. He’s not really a candidate for a fantasy baseball team, but in real life, he could prove to be quite valuable.

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Marcus Semien 2018: A Career Year?

11/25/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media

Baseball fans love talking about career years for their favorite players. The 2018 A’s had a lot of good years from a lot of their players. But one of those players, Marcus Semien, had a lot better season that his baseball card stats would suggest. In fact, what drove Semien’s career year success was not his offensive stats, but rather his defensive stats.

According to FanGraphs, Marcus Semien compiled 3.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in 2018. This beat his 27 home run “breakout” season in 2016, in which he earned 2.1 WAR. So, what took Semien from an average major league shortstop to an above average one? The key to his value lay in drastically improved defense at shortstop.

Marcus Semien has always hit for power. But he’s always suffered from low batting averages (career .249 BA), low on-base percentages (career .319 OBP), and erratic defense. He actually wasn’t bad on defense in 2015, but he was “worth” -15 defensive runs between 2016 and 2017. So, what changed?

Marcus Semien and His Improved Defense and Defensive Stats

A lot of people are skeptical of defensive statistics, as they tend to fluctuate significantly from season to season. However, consistently excellent defenders and consistently bad defenders usually are bore out over the course of a player’s career. Erratic defenders are harder to pinpoint. As we’ve learned over the years, defense is actually a quantifiable asset. It comes down to what plays a player “should” make.

In his career through 2018, these were Semien’s defensive stats broken down by the likelihood of a play being successfully made:

Impossible (0%) 0%
Remote (1-10%) 0%
Unlikely (10-40%) 11.3%
Even (40-60%) 15.7%
Likely (60-90%) 61.1%
Routine (90-100%) 95.9%

In 2018, these are his numbers

Impossible (0%) 0%
Remote (1-10%) 0%
Unlikely (10-40%) 12.5%
Even (40-60%) 21.1%
Likely (60-90%) 61.9%
Routine (90-100%) 96.8%

While those percentages are definitely better than his career averages - which are boosted by his 2018 numbers - they don’t seem like that much. Still, all you need are a handful of made plays in those 10-40% and 40-60% ranges to make a big difference in your defensive value.

Those numbers made Semien worth 9 Defensive Runs Saved and 6.4 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games played). That’s well above-average, although not quite Gold Glove calibre. But what stands out about Semien’s year is how my OOZ (Out of Zone) plays he made: 133. Previously he had made 106 in 2016. His RZR (Revised Zone Rating) was .869, far above his career average of .803, which includes 2018.

This is definitely an improved defensive player. Will he keep this up? It’s completely possible, as defense is a skill that can be learned and improved over time.

Marcus Semien Batting in 2018

For a career year, you’d expect Semien to have a breakout with the bat. That’s not what happened at all. Marcus Semien had a batting average of .255, right in line with his career stats. His on-base percentage was merely .319 and his slugging percentage a fairly low .388. That’s not a great batting line. However, as he plays in Oakland, notoriously not a good pitcher’s park, that batting line of .255/.319/.388 is nearly league-average. He also was a positive on the basepaths with 14 stolen bases, although he was caught 6 times.

There are a couple of interesting things to point out, however. Semien saw more pitches at the plate in 2018 than ever before in his career: 2881. He also saw far more balls, 1102, than ever before. He also hit more line drives and fly balls than ever before, and had a career high 19 infield hits.

Is Marcus Semien Poised for a Better 2019?

When you see improvements across the board like this, it’s very likely you have an improving player. Marcus Semien is only 28 years old and in his prime. The Oakland A’s may enjoy even better results from their shortstop moving forward. If he’s able to produce even half of the defensive value that he did in 2018, he could be an above-average shortstop going forward.

While StatCast seems to think that Semien was a bit lucky with only a .299 expected on-base average (xwOBA) and .329 expected on-base average on contact (xwOBACON), he also had more batted balls in 2018 than ever. If Semien squares up just a few more fastballs going forward, this is a sneaky good, very underrated player.

While Marcus Semien may not be your first choice at shortstop for a fantasy baseball team, or even your fourth or fifth, he’s possibly not seen his best year yet.

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Steve Pearce in 2019: Will Pearce Be Even Better for the Boston Red Sox?

Marcus Semien 2018: A Career Year?

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