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Junk Wax Dynasty - Dale Mohorcic and His 1987 Career Year in Relief

12/30/2018

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture1987 Fleer #131 Dale Mohorcic Rookie Card
Relief pitchers are hardly a big deal in the baseball card hobby. Of course, guys like Dennis Eckersley and Lee Smith have their fans and collectors. But, a lot of the best relief pitchers out there, even the most consistent, don’t have much of a following. Still, when you’re building a dynasty baseball team out of cards from the Junk Wax era from 1987-1993, it’s good to find some diamonds in the rough, guys like Dale Mohorcic.

Who? Sure, Dale Mohorcic was never a household name. But in 1987, his efforts in relief for the Texas Rangers earned him 3.1 Wins Above Replacement for the Texas Rangers. That was a follow-up to a decent 1986 in which he earned 2.2 WAR. I’m sure you won’t hear people wax nostalgic about Dale, but he did have a couple of pretty good seasons as far as results are concerned.

Of course, with a strikeout rate of 4.3 K/9, that leaves a lot of your success up to the defense. Mohorcic’s FIP of 3.98 and FanGraphs WAR of 1.0 in 1987 (and 0.9 WAR in 1986) gives you more of an idea of the pitcher Mohorcic really was. Indeed, both his 1986 and 1987 seasons were fluky. He had a strand rate of 81.1% in 1986 and 80.1% in 1987, both of which are very high. He also had a BABIP of only .248, which is crazy low - although it was a more sustainable .295 in his good 1986 season.

So, who is Dale Mohorcic? Where did he come from, and what happened to him?

Dale Mohorcic the Journeyman

Mohorcic began his quest through the minor leagues began in the short-lived independent Northwest League with the Victoria Mussels. He was the ace of their staff in 1978 with a 2.02 ERA! Dale caught the attention of the Toronto Blue Jays, who purchased his contract. He was underwhelming in their farm system, though, and was released.

The Pirates were intrigued by Mohorcic, though, as a reliever. He actually enjoyed a fine season in 1980 mostly as a closer. The Pirates held onto him until after the 1984 season, trying him again as both a starter and a reliever, but he never really caught on. They let him go before the 1985 season.

He caught on again with the Texas Rangers and enjoyed a decent 1985 season in relief at AAA. He returned in 1986 and found his way to the majors.

After his strong 1987 season, he scuffled early on in the 1988 season. The Rangers decided to move on from him, deciding to try out Mitch Williams - who himself would struggle but become a pretty good pitcher soon after. Williams himself would be traded to the Cubs after the season in an otherwise underwhelming package for Jamie Moyer and Rafael Palmeiro, The Rangers won that trade. The Yankees picked up Mohorcic for Cecilio Guante, formerly a pretty strong reliever, but he only gave the Rangers 0.3 WAR for the rest of 1988 and 1989.

Mohorcic, on the other hand, actually pitched very well for New York, and gave the pinstripes 0.8 WAR in only 22 and two-thirds innings. He was dreadful in 1989 though, being “worth” -1.2 WAR. Mohorcic even spent time in the minors, where he actually pitched very well. Probably because of those good minor league innings, he did catch on in 1990 with the Montreal Expos, pitching well at AAA, and had OK results with 0.6 WAR in 53 innings with the big club. He hung up his cleats after that.

Dave Mohorcic as a Closer?

To be fair, Mohorcic isn’t really someone you’d consider a prototypical closer type pitcher. He walked guys liked a power pitcher, but struck out guys like a finesse pitcher. When he limited the walks, he was pretty successful. But, like a lot of relief guys that pitched to contact, you rely so much on the defense that it’s hard to stay consistent for long periods of time.

Mohorcic hearkens back to the old days of grinding out game after game. This is before bullpens became more specialized. You were either a mop-up guy or a back-end guy like a set-up man or a closer. Mohorcic gained a reputation in the minors as being a shutdown relief pitcher. While he didn’t blow anyone away with peripheral stats, it’s actually possible that Mohorcic could’ve kept pitching and ate some late innings for a few more years.

For my Junk Wax dynasty, I’d consider Mohorcic as a great candidate to serve as a middle reliever or a late inning guy strictly against right-handed batters in a 3+ run game. His platoon splits weren’t great (.247/.309/.364 against RHB and a whopping .305/.351/.446 against LHB). This was a guy who tied Mike Marshall for the major league record of pitching in 13 straight games. It’s hard not to want a guy like that on your team. He showed up and gave his best. In an age of bullpen specialization like today, he’d actually probably have fared a lot better.


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Junk Wax Dynasty - Randy Ready and His Magical 1987 Season

12/30/2018

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut 
1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready
In Junk Wax Dynasty, we look at players from the “Junk Wax” era of baseball cards and find the hidden gems from 1987 to 1993. For this installment, we take a look at the career year of a San Diego Padres utility player by the name of Randy Ready.

How many Randy Ready cards from 1987 were put into bicycle spokes? Probably a lot. Funny thing is, utility infielder Randy Ready actually had a career year in 1987. According to Baseball Reference, his performance that year netted the San Diego Padres 5.8 Wins Above Replacement. To put that in perspective, that’s the same number that a young Barry Bonds put up that year. Considering that the Padres acquired Ready in 1986 for a player to be named later that had a career War of -0.1 WAR, the Friars were quite pleased with his performance.

Before we get into that career year, though, it’s important to know what was going on in Randy’s life at the time. This dude dealt with tragedy the year before.. Check this out:

“On June 13, 1986, the day Ready played his first game as a Padre after having been acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers, [Randy’s wife] Dorene collapsed on the floor of their home in Tucson. She was unconscious for 7 to 10 minutes. During much of that time, her brain was deprived of oxygen.”

Oh, boy. That ended Ready’s season right there, so he could go be with his wife and three young sons. His wife had suffered a heart attack that left her with permanent brain damage, and she never recovered from it, So, Randy and his sister Cindy had to raise the children. Later, it would be found that some diet pills that his wife was prescribed were what gave her the heart attack. A few years later, a jury awarded the family more than $25 million in a settlement.

Of course, that eventual money couldn’t make up that loss. Baseball became Randy’s escape. So, it makes what happened that next season even more special.

Ready was a patient hitter who regularly walked more than he struck out. But in 1987, his bat exploded for a .309/.423/.520 batting line for a .943 OPS. That's a 153 OPS+ or 53 percent above league average. He hit a career high 12 home runs and batted in 54 runs. He added 7 steals but was caught three times, so he only added a bit of value there.

In 1987 he played second base, third base, left field, and right field. Ready was a steady average fielder at both second and third base and a bit below average in the outfield. But in 1997, Ready was worth 5 Total Zone runs above average in only 52 games at second base and 3 runs above average at third. He was even 3 runs above average in left field in only 16 games, partly thanks to an outfield assist. In all, he amassed 1.2 defensive WAR.

Unfortunately for Ready, a lot of this success was due to a .325 batting average on balls in play. His .211 ISO or isolated power was backed up by career highs in doubles with 26 and triples with 6. He'd never show that level of power again. So, with eventual career marks of .280 BABIP and .127 ISO, this was a major outlier.

Was Randy Ready in 1988?

Ready was not bad in 1988 but he would be traded to the Phillies along with John Kruk for outfielder Chris James. Obviously, Kruk would go on to be very good. But, it got worse for the Padres. James would be OK, but the Padres would trade James along with Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga for Joe Carter. Alomar and Baerga would go on to be very good for the Indians, and even Chris James had a strong year in 1990.

Of course, Joe Carter was a good player, but he went on to be terrible for the Padres. So, he was flipped along with Roberto Alomar (future hall of famer) for infielder Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff. McGriff would be good, but Fernandez would be underwhelming offensively. Imagine if the Padres had Kruk, both Alomar, Baerga, and Ready still… Somewhat hilariously, Fernandez would be part of what could have been an unassisted triple play started by - you guessed it - Randy Ready!

Fernandez would actually never be the player he was in Toronto again (with 2.2 WAR in 1991 and 1.1 WAR in 1992), but he would end up having a late career resurgence, ironically with Toronto in 1993, with Cleveland in 1997, and again very ironically with TORONTO in 1998 and 1999. Of course, the Padres only got one good year out of Wally Whitehurst (2.7 WAR). Man, the Padres made a lot of bad moves…

Anyway, back to Randy...

Randy Ready and the Rest of His Career

Anyway, Ready was never quite as good again after 1987. It’s not hard to imagine why, though, especially with what he had to deal with in his home life. His last really good year was 1991, in which he posted a 1.3 WAR in only 76 games. In that year, he hit .249/.385/.322 for a roughly league average .707 OPS. That batting line included a dreadful .207/.294/.207 (.501 OPS) against right-handed pitching, but a .265/.418/.367 (.785 OPS) against lefties.

The rest of Ready’s career was plagued by some inconsistency with the glove - having some good defensive seasons and some bad - that overshadowed his strong plate discipline. The good news is, he stuck around in the majors until 1995 and played in Japan for a year in 1996. But looking back now, the real thing that held Ready back from being an above-average super utility player were his platoon splits.

Career vs RHP: .246/.341/.356 - .697 OPS in 1180 PA
Career vs LHP: .271/.375/.415 - .790 OPS in 1308 PA

In today’s analytically driven game, Ready would have been strictly a platoon bat that could play second base, third base, and the outfield corners. He would’ve probably been worth 1.0-1.5 WAR in part time duty and perhaps he would’ve settled in at one position, either at second or third base with occasional starts in Left Field or Right Field against a left-handed pitcher. He was also not utilized nearly as much as a pinch hitter as he likely should have, especially in the National League. Still, he cobbled together a decent career as a 25th man, which is hardly something to sneeze at. It’s just interesting that he wasn’t utilized better.

Randy Ready as a Coach and Manager

Randy never really left the game, either. He returned to the game as a minor league manager in 2002 and served as the Padres hitting coach for a bit. That stint as hitting coach proved disastrous as the Padres had one of the worst lineups in baseball. Was that his fault, though? Probably not. Anyway, he has continued in the game as a minor league coach and manager. In 2017, he became a minor league manager in the Marlins system.

Ready is definitely well-liked in the game. The teams he’s managed have often made the playoffs and he’s been an overall winning manager. It’s a shame that his playing career really only had a couple of bright spots (1987 and 1991), but he did have quite a ride.

So, the next time you come across a Randy Ready baseball card, especially from 1987 or 1991, don’t be so quick to dismiss them. In fact, he’s the top utility player in my Junk Wax Dynasty. He deserves to be remembered, even if it’s just for that amazing 5 WAR season in the wake of family tragedy.


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Troy Tulowitzki Released by Blue Jays - What’s Next for Tulo?

12/11/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
With two years and $38 million remaining on his contract, the Toronto Blue Jays decided to release the oft-injured shortstop and buy out his remaining two years. While that is a staggering amount of money to pay a player to simply go away, there is good reason for this move.

The Jays already have a fairly good young shortstop in Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Plus, Devon Travis is still there at second base, with Brandon Drury backing him up. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. will be holding down third base. While it would seem prudent to give Tulo a shot at rebuilding his value, keeping him around simply didn’t make sense for a team that has youth on their side.

As for the 35-year old shortstop, it’s hard to say if he can even remain at shortstop for a full season. Indeed, the projection systems see him as a part-time player at this point. But, this is actually where things get interesting.

His 2019 Steamer projection: 68 games, .252/.312/.422 with 10 HR, and average-ish defense at shortstop for 1 WAR.

While those numbers are a far cry from what the baseball world came to expect from Tulo before his injury-marred 2017 and his lost 2018 (due to bone spurs in both ankles) that means if he can even play half-a-season, he’s still valuable. Now that the Blue Jays bought out his contract, Tulowitzki’s services can be had for the league minimum for each of the next two seasons. So, who wants Tulo for two years and roughly $1.2 million total?

The question is, where does he play at this point? It’s possible he could play first, second, third, or shortstop. With league-average offense and the ability to not embarrass with the glove, it seems like he could fit anywhere, right?

Tulowitzki to the Orioles?

The Baltimore Orioles have Jonathan Villar at the top of their Shortstop depth chart. While speedy and not a zero with the bat, it’s possible that Tulo is still the better fielder at this point. There’s Breyvic Valera, too. Also, second base is pretty wide open, although the solid Renato Nunez probably can hold down third base. Still, there’s some sense here, especially at league minimum for a year.

No one else in the AL East is in desperate need of a shortstop. The Indians, Twins, and Royals certainly don’t need one. The White Sox are committed to Tim Anderson at short. So, who’s next?

Tulowitzki to the Tigers?

As a team that really needs to rebuild, Tulo may make some sense for the Tigers. Ronny Rodriguez tops their depth chart at short. While he’s probably about as good as Tulo at this point, second base is pretty open, too. So, a one-year deal for league minimum makes sense here, too. Like the Orioles, the Tigers have a solid young third baseman in Jeimer Candelario.


In the AL West, the Angels infield is solid. The Astros have Carlos Correa. The A’s have Marcus Semien. The Mariners are probably OK with JP Crawford. Elvis Andrus isn’t what he was with the Rangers, but still more a given than Tulo.

That makes only two teams in the AL that could realistically use TUlo. Neither of those teams would surrender talent for Tulo or take on that contract. He’s pretty much a veteran clubhouse leader who can provide some value off the bench for those two. Both the Orioles and Tigers could benefit from him just being there.

What about in the NL?

Tulowitzki to the Marlins?

While the Braves, Mets, Natinoals and Phillies are set at shortstop, the Marlins shortstop situation is a bit more unclear. Of course, they are in talks about Miguel Andujar - who can technically “play” shortstop. Right now, J.T. Riddle tops their depth chart. Miguel Rojas is there, too. The Marlins also have veteran Martin Prado hanging around. Still, you could see how Tulo could be a nice veteran presence on a rebuilding club. If he ends up playing mostly full-time and clobbers 20 homers, that would be nice. But he makes less sense in Miami than in Baltimore or Detroit. Also, would Tulo even want to play there?


Tulowitzki to the Brewers?

While this isn’t a perfect fit necessarily, the Brewers have Hernan Perez topping their second base depth chart and Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Really, it depends on how much stock you put in Arcia, but at this point, Tulo is projecting roughly as valuable as Arcia in about half the playing time. Plus, he’s far more valuable than Perez, and that means that Arcia can just play where Tulo doesn’t. Then again, the Brewers want to compete and Tulo’s health is not a given. That being said, the commitment is so minimal. It could be a creative fit.

Tulowitzki to the Cubs?

With Addison Russell’s future with the Cubs up in the air - due to the domestic violence allegations - Tulo seems like he could be a stopgap solution. While not a natural fit, he could still be a useful utility infielder even with Russell there.

While no one else in the NL Central needs a shortstop, there is an intriguing possibility in the NL West…

Tulowitzki to the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks are in a weird place. They aren’t quite in a rebuilding phase, as they are still a team that can contend, but they also just traded Goldschmidt - whose contract was expiring after 2019 anyway - and are looking to trade Zack Greinke. They also just lost Patrick Corbin in free agency. This is a team that needs to retool on the fly. Tulowitzki is not only cheap, but moving back to high altitude in Phoenix, Arizona - albeit not quite as high as Denver, Colorado - could boost his offensive numbers a bit. It may be worth a shot.

Tulowitzki to the Padres?

With the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies set at shortstop, the only other possible landing spot for Tulo would be San Diego. The Padres are just a mess, with Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. topping the depth chart at shortstop. Second base doesn’t look much better. Tulowitzki would at the very least make things interesting. The price is certainly right and it’s not like he’s blocking anyone.


So, the potential landing spots for Tulowitzki are:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres

Of course, some other team could take a flyer on him as a utility infielder (a reunion with the Rockies perhaps?) but these are the only teams that make sense to me. We’ll see where he lands.

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Red Sox 2019 MLB Sleepers - Matthew Kent

12/11/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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The 26-year old left-handed starting pitcher, Matthew Kent, is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the Boston Red Sox farm system. He’s no longer considered a prospect at his “advanced” age, but he looks to be a pretty solid pitcher due for a chance to debut in the MLB in 2019 or 2020. He just broke into AAA last year, and it wasn’t a pretty first start. But, Kent’s track record since being taken in the 13th round of the 2015 MLB draft has been very solid.

Matthew Kent 2019 Projections

Steamer: 4.74 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9
ZiPS: 4.79 ERA (4.49 FIP) 5.45 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 1.3 WAR

In his minor league career, Kent’s never struck out many batters, but he hasn’t walked many, either. He’s had a fairly consistent 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is definitely above-average. Kent held left-handed batters to a .241 average in 2018 in AA, but only a .264 average against righties. So, he doesn’t have obvious platoon splits, meaning he’s a realistic multi-inning option.

The MLE’s (Major League Equivalents) for Kent in 2019 aren’t fantastic, but they are passable. He’s never been that susceptible to long balls, so the ZiPS projection of 1.02 HR/9 is probably more in line with his past history. It’s possible that the strikeout rates are a bit low and the walk rates may be a bit high. Even then, a starter being worth 1.3 WAR is worth about $10 million on a one-year deal on the open market. This guy has potential.

That Kent projects so well to essentially be the Sox’s 6th starter speaks well to his ability. He’s not someone you ever hear much about either. He could log meaningful MLB innings late in 2019 or 2020.

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Third Base

12/11/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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There’s no way this author can talk about the Red Sox third base situation without continuing to grieve over the loss of Travis Shaw. Alas, he was traded - along with three minor leaguers - to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Yes, that Tyler Thornburg… he of the lost 2017 season and replacement level 2018 season in 24 innings. He was so bad that the Red Sox didn’t even guarantee his $1.75 million contract for the 2019 season…

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has been raking at Miller Field, while all the while playing his usual brand of solid defense at third base and even second base. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 WAR in 2018! That’s while making the league minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, he’s due for another 2.6 WAR according to Steamer… Whoops…

The good news for the Red Sox is that master team-builder Dave Dombrowski is able to cover for his only major misstep with the team. The Sox have a very solid young player in Rafael Devers - who could be just as valuable as Shaw in 2019. They also have two young players that may be decent players at the hot corner at some point, as well. Let’s see what the Sox have here.


Rafael Devers

2019 Steamer Projection: 560 PA, .270/.328/.476, .340 wOBA, 7.1 batting runs, 0.8 baserunning runs, -2.6 fielding runs. 2.6 WAR

2019 ZiPS Projection:  .265/.320/.480, -6 defense, 1.9 WAR

Devers is only 22 years old. He had a 1 WAR season with a .240/.298/.433 batting line and 21 HR. That’s not bad for a 21 year old, who was probably a bit overmatched. His -13 Defensive Runs Saved and -5.2 UZR/150 show he wasn’t quite ready with the glove, either. If the projections are right and he becomes simply below average with the glove, he’s an above average player. ZiPS is probably right to be skeptical about his defense. Even then, he’s probably at least an average regular - which for the league minimum and his power upside, the Sox will be happy to take.

Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez are certain to see perhaps a dozen games apiece at third base. But, you really don’t want either holding down the position all year. The good news is that the Red Sox are not devoid of third base prospects.


Michael Chavis

2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.300/.439, -0.1 defense
2019 ZiPS Projection: .242/.299/.449, -1 defense, 1.1 WAR

Chavis isn’t even on Steamer’s radar to have much more than a 7 at-bat cup of coffee. However, it agrees with ZiPS that Chavis is very likely to be about what Devers was last year in 2019 if he played full-time in the Majors. Of course, he’s going to be 24 in August 2019. His defense is known to be shaky, too, which is why he’s been shifting towards first base. The good news is that Chavis could still have some value. He would actually worth be giving a shot if he shows promise at AAA and Devers is failing or hurt.

After all, Chavis did hit .303/.388/.508 in 139 AA at-bats and .273/.294/.545 in 34 AAA at-bats, with an 80-game PED suspension mixed in. The power is real, and he has enough plate discipline to not embarrass himself. If he can become a passable third baseman, or even first baseman, he actually does have a future. It could even be late 2019 or early 2020.


Bobby Dalbec

2019 Steamer Projection: .229/.295/.432, 0 defense

2019 ZiPS Projection: .200/.280/.407, 0 defense, 0.5 WAR

Dalbec probably has no business being in the MLB in 2019, but if he got 450 or so at-bats, he’s probably going to be fairly above replacement level. Of course, that’s considering neutral defense. Scouts consider his defense to be adequate and he has an above-average arm. So, netural defense is probably fine to consider.

In 2018, Dalbec destroyed A+ ball with a .256/.372/.573 and 26 HR in 419 plate appearances, albeit with a 31% strikeout rate. He hit .261.323.514 in 124 plate appearance, but with a 37% strikeout rate. Steamer is a bit more optimistic about Dalbec’s bat than ZiPS going into his age-24 season. The strikeouts are concerning, though.

If Dalbec can trim the strikeouts and fare OK at AAA, there’s still a possibility that Dalbec tastes the majors in 2020. At any rate, he’s the Sox #12 prospect at the moment.

Even after essentially giving away Travis Shaw, it seems like the Sox aren’t in that bad of shape. Of course, one of Chavis or Dalbec becoming at least a passable regular at either first or third base would be a grand development for the 2020 season. If both pan out, along with Devers, the Red Sox are in good shape. Otherwise, that Travis Shaw trade could haunt the Red Sox for awhile. Still, when that’s the worst move you make and still win a championship, you’re doing OK.


Red Sox Third Base: B-minus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Second Base

12/11/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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After Ian Kinsler didn’t hit for the Red Sox after being acquired by them late in the season, Boston is looking forward to the return of Dustin Pedroia in 2019. Not only is Pedroia coming off an injury, but he’s not getting any younger, either. The good news is that he projects to be a league average player, and if his knee is sufficiently healed, he could be better. The Sox also hope for more of the same from super-utility player Brock Holt and a rebound from Eduardo Nunez.

Dustin Pedroia  

2019 Steamer Projection: 518 PA, .272/.344/.390, .321 wOBA, -1.5 Batting Runs, -1.8 Baserunning Runs, 4.0 Fielding Runs, 2.0 WAR

Going into his age 35 season, it remains to be seen what Pedroia has left in the tank after missing most of 2017. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his batting line will be close to the Steamer projection, but many Sox fans will take the over if he’s healthy. Also, depending on his knee’s health, he could provide even more value on defense and hopefully, even be a positive on the basepaths.

He’s earning $15 million in 2019, so if he’s just a 2 win player, he’s earned it. He earns $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It’s not like Pedroia is an albatross, but it would be really nice to see him finish his career as at least a league-average regular before bowing out after 2021.


Brock Holt

2019 Steamer Projection: 105 PA .260/.340/.375, .315 wOBA, -0.80 batting runs, .1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.3 WAR

As a super-utility player is meant to do, Holt kept the Red Sox at least respectable at second base in 2018. He was actually 6th in position player WAR for the 2018 Red Sox. One of the best utility men in baseball in 2014 and 2015, he was mediocre in 2016 and terrible in 2017. Only 30 years of age, Holt is very likely to match his projection, and possibly beat it in overall value if he racks up the plate appearances. Struggles from Rafael Devers at third could mean more time for Holt, as well. He was worth 1.4 WAR in 2018, and it’s not impossible for him to be worth that again - although hopefully the majority of that value is distributed among other positions, too.

Eduardo Nunez

2019 Steamer Projection: 63 PA .284/.318/.424, .319 wOBA, -0.3 batting runs, -0.1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.2 WAR

Nunez was a great pickup for the 2016 Sox. It wasn’t hard to see why the Red Sox signed him to a $6 million one-year deal with a $5 million player option - which Nunez picked up in late October 2018. Unsurprisingly, Nunez isn’t expected to receive many plate appearances at second base with Pedroia and Holt around. If he does have a batting line close to his career average - which is what he’s projected to do - and continues to be neutral on the bases and in the field, he’ll be easily worth his $5 million. He still serves as insurance for Pedroia, as long as he doesn’t repeat a -14 Defensive Runs Saved at second...

Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Rodriguez are also in the second base picture, but if the team has to give them at-bats, something has gone wrong.  They are depth you hope you don’t find yourself having to test. Overall, this is a group that projects for about 2.5 WAR, and the over is not hard at all to see if Pedey is actually healthy.

2019 ZiPS Insights

With the release of the 2019 ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski, there are a few more projections to consider. The most interesting is the departing Ian Kinsler. He had a decent 2018 season overall, although he struggled badly with the bat with the Sox. He projects for .252/.317/.386 plus 8 defensive runs for 1.9 WAR over a full season. It’s unlikely they reunite with Pedroia locked up, though.

Farm hand Tony Renda projects about replacement level, as does Ivan De Jesus.  Chad La Guerra and Brett Netzer aren’t looking to help at the MLB level any time soon, either. Second base is definitely a position that has little depth after Pedroia and Holt - Nunez is a stretch as we saw in 2018 at the position. Still, if Pedroia is capable, this is a position where the Sox should be fine.

Red Sox Second Basemen - Solid B

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: First Base (1B)

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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In Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Red Sox have a roughly league-average platoon at first base. Moreland can play against right-handed pitching and Pearce can play against lefties, who he mashes. Sam Travis and Blake Swihart are in the mix there, as well.

The most interesting outside candidate is Michael Chavis, coming off PED suspension and mediocre results, who is projected for a .248/.300/.439 batting line. The good news is that the Steamer projections are fairly conservative in this author’s opinion. Let’s take a look.

Mitch Moreland

Steamer 2019 projection: 350 PA, .251/.325/.441.329 wOBA, 1.1 Batting Runs, -1.1 Baserunning Runs, 1.8 Fielding Runs, 0.7 WAR

Moreland was a shrewd signing by the Red Sox in the 2016 off season that worked out very well. His subsequent two-year deal has also worked out well, although you’d want more out of your starting first baseman than 0.6 WAR. In a pure platoon situation, it’s very possible that Moreland greatly outperforms his .251/.325/.441 batting line projection. In 2018, he hit only .242/.305/.379 against lefties and .246/.331/.450 against righties. He’s only earning $6.5 million in 2018, just as he did in 2017, so he’s not exactly breaking the bank. Also, he is a plus fielder. With a little luck and having Pearce around all season, he could break 1 WAR

Steve Pearce

Steamer 2019 projection: 280 PA, .266/.344/.470, .350 wOBA, 5.7 batting runs, -0.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.6 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Since Pearce is primarily a lefty masher, it’s not outrageous to expect about 1.1 WAR from Pearce. He’s making $6.25 million in 2019, about the same as Moreland. He’s a worse fielder, but if he mostly plays first, that won’t matter so much. Also, if he keeps up his improved walk rate from 2018, he’s likely even more valuable than this.

The other guys may not amount to much, although Chavis is interesting in that he projects for a nearly league-average batting line. He also can play third base, if erratically. If Chavis shows something this year in AAA, the Sox may call him up in 2019.

All in all, this is an above average group at first base. It’s hardly exciting, but there’s a little upside here. This is not an area the Sox have to work on right now, especially if Chavis / Sam Travis can essentially replace Moreland in 2020.

Red Sox First Basemen: C-plus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Catchers

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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As a group, the Boston Red Sox are a bit underwhelming at the catching position. Steamer projects the three catchers on the Red Sox roster - Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart - for 1.6 WAR. That’s a bit below league average, although both Vazquez and Leon are above average catchers defensively. Of course, Vazquez and Leon combined for NEGATIVE 1.7 WAR last season, when the team won 108 games. It’s most likely that they don’t repeat that. Let’s take a look.


Christian Vazquez

2019 Steamer: 384 PA .256/.305/.367, .293 wOBA, -10.0 batting runs, -0.8 Baserunning Runs, 1.7 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Vazquez had a dreadful year with the bat in 2018, but it was mostly due to a .237 batting average on balls in play (career .293 BABIP). He’ll probably never be a fantastic hitter, but the Sox hope he’s more like his 2017 with the bat. If he hits .290/.330/.400, he’ll be about a league average catcher with his glovework and positive pitch framing marks. Even if he’s closer to .260/.300/.370, he’s still a decent “real life” catcher, although you wouldn’t want to touch him in fantasy baseball..

Sandy Leon

2019 Steamer: 192 PA, .225/.285/.346 .277 wOBA, -7.5 Batting Runs, -0.5 Baserunning Runs, 1.0 Fielding Runs, 0.3 WAR

Like Vazquez, Sandy Leon had a terrible regular season with the bat in 2018. Also like Vazquez, he had horrible luck on batted balls in play (.226 BABIP / .290 BABIP career). While it’s unlikely he’ll have another year like his 2016 - .310/.369/.476 in 78 games for 2.5 WAR (!) - it’s not impossible.  Still, his Steamer projection is in line with his career numbers, and 0.3 WAR is acceptable.

Blake Swihart

2019 Steamer: 64 PA, .235/.300/.353 .287 wOBA, -2.0 Batting Runs, 0.1 Baserunning Runs -0.1 Fielding Runs, 0.1 WAR

Swihart is a fairly forgotten man at this point. It’s very likely he greatly outperforms that projection. He’s expected to remain at catcher, although he’s been passable in left field and first base. The bar is so low for catchers at this point that if he impresses in spring training, he may even be trade bait if the Sox have no room for him on the roster - which is likely.

While catcher is definitely not a strength for the 2019 Red Sox, it’s very easy for them to beat what they got out of the position in 2018. It’s not a position of clear weakness that the Sox need to address, and Vazquez still has upside. Plus, Leon has shown the tendency to get hot, so this could end up being a lot better than the C-minus grade we have to give them right now.

Red Sox Catchers: C-minus

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Cameron Rupp Signs With San Francisco Giants

12/8/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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In their search for a strong backup catcher to play behind Buster Posey, the Giants signed Cameron Rupp. Formerly a solid backup catcher with power with the Phillies, Rupp bounced around in 2018, playing with three different teams at their AAA affiliates.

Rupp caught fire with the Rangers AAA team, hitting .274/.346/.540 albeit with a 34.6 percent strikeout rate. Then the Rangers let him go, where Rupp would go on to struggle with the Twins and Mariners. Overall, it was a pretty forgettable and frustrating season for him.

Defensively Rupp is not known for his framing skills. Really, he's not well regarded as a backstop overall. However, he has power, and he could work with Posey on some things.

Projection system Steamer doesn't like him at all in 2019. It projects a .202/.275/.350 batting line with no playing time. Rupp should display more raw power than that. Baseball reference lists his Marcel projection, which is .233/.302/.414 in 233 plate appearances. That seems like a more likely outcome.

Currently, the Giants have Aramis Garcia as their backup catcher. He's a better defensive catcher, but offers nowhere near Rupp's power potential. It will be interesting to see if Rupp displaces Garcia when spring training is out in 2019.

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Andres Blanco Signs With Atlanta Braves

12/8/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Atlanta Braves added a potential utility player in Andres Blanco. Entering his age 35 season, he figures to add some roster depth. A perfectly adequate defender at second base and shortstop, the Braves are happy to have his veteran presence around.

Blanco has never hit much in the major leagues outside of a hot 2015 where he did a lot of damage off the bench as a pinch hitter and third baseman. That year he hit .292/.360/.502 with 7 home runs. Interestingly, third base has been Blanco's worst position defensively.

However, after a couple of down years, Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 at AAA for the Brewers in 2018. Steamer projects Blanco for a .232/.298/.355 batting line. With his league average defense at second and third base, as well as the ability to cameo at third base, first base, and the outfield corners, he provides useful depth. If he catches fire, the Braves could enjoy one last hurrah from Blanco.

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Paul Goldschmidt Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals by the Arizona Diamondbacks

12/7/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Plenty has already been written about Paul Goldschmidt joining the St. Louis Cardinals on the last year of his contract. The Arizona Diamondbacks received five years of control of a mid-rotation starting pitcher, a decent catcher who could contribute as early as 2019 or 2020, a solid utility player, and a top-80 draft pick in the 2019 draft.

Goldschmidt is due $14.5 million in 2019 for his services, which is, honestly, pretty inexpensive for one of the best hitters in the majors. He projects to be worth about 4.2 WAR in 2019 according to Steamer with a conservative .277/.385/.488 batting line. At age 31 in 2019, a slight dip in his batting line is possible. His defense at first base is usually above average, although UZR didn’t like his defense last year while DRS did at +6.

The Cardinals are obviously instantly better with this move. Matt Carpenter moves back to third base, where his already strong bat becomes even more valuable. On the open market, Goldschmidt’s projection would be worth about $34 million in value. So, was the Diamondbacks return good?

The Diamondbacks Receive Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young

Besides the top-80 draft pick, the Diamondbacks get 5 years of Luke Weaver, six years of Carson Kelly, and a AAA minor leaguer in Andy Young. Weaver is the most MLB ready of the three, and he’s expected to slide right into the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Kelly and Young could also make an impact in 2019.

Luke Weaver was excellent for the Cardinals in 2017, but took a step back in 2018. Even in a down year, he was still worth 1.3 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR that uses FIP not ERA as a measure of value.) Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR in 2019. At only 25, Weaver is still looking ahead to his prime. If he’s a 2 WAR pitcher for even just three out of the next five seasons, this trade already looks like a win for the Diamondbacks.

The best thing about Weaver is he’s cheap, making the league minimum for 2019 and 2020, plus three more years of arbitration-eligible seasons. He’s easily the gem of the deal and really just has to stay healthy and be a roughly league-average starter.

Carson Kelly hasn’t been exciting in the major leagues so far as the heir apparent to Yadier Molina with the Cardinals. However, his minor league numbers and plus defense suggest he should be able to help the Diamondbacks in some capacity in 2019. Steamer projects him for 0.8 WAR with a .242/.316/.370 batting line and +4.8 runs on defense in only 53 games. He’s had very poor luck on batted balls in play so far in his MLB career, so that projection could easily be correct. Over the course of a full season, he could easily be a roughly league-average backstop. He’ll back up Alex Avila for now.

Already, the Diamondbacks seem to have “won” this trade. But that’s before we also consider Andy Young, the former 37th round pick. In many ways, Young is a lot like a guy that the Diamondbacks just let go in Chris Owings. Like Owings, Young plays second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield. Steamer projects Young for a 12 game cup of coffee in 2019, hitting .253.307.408 with adequate defense for 0.1 WAR. Project that over a full season, and you have something like a 1.1 WAR player who can cover the whole infield and the outfield corners. They also control Young for six seasons.

It’s hard to fault the Cardinals for making this move, though. This was going to be the cheapest way for them to anchor their lineup. The Cardinals probably won’t miss any of those three players. Also, because they traded for Goldschmidt before the season started, the Cardinals can still extend a qualifying offer to him after the season. If he rejects it - a one-year offer in the range of $18 million or so - the Cardinals can recoup a draft pick. The Diamondbacks were happy to get a good pick already - not much worse than what they would’ve gotten out of a Goldschmidt qualifying offer being rejected.

Also, while this was probably not in the Diamondbacks’ line of thinking - what if this is the year that Goldy begins to decline? His value is never going to be higher than it is now. Both sides did what they needed to do. The funny thing is, the Diamondbacks may not even be that much worse this year.

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Chris Owings Signs with Kansas City Royals

12/7/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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In their quest to rebuild without actually rebuilding, the Kansas City Royals made a decent shrewd free agent signing of a utility player named Chris Owings. Formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Owings has played second base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions in his career. He had a dreadful 2018 with the bat, so he’ll be looking to get back to at least his career averages.

The Royals are only guaranteeing Owings $3 million, plus $500,000 in incentives. The plus with Owings is his positional versatility. While Whit Merrifield holds down second base and Adalberto Mondesi holds down shortstop for the Royals, Owings is a plus in the outfield. In 2018, he was worth +10 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, with 5 DRS in right field in only 314 innings, 4 DRS in center with only 109 innings (!), and 1 DRS in 26 left field innings. He’s definitely a plus in the outfield.

There’s also a chance Owings plays some third base - not a position he’s played much in the major leagues - although he can handle it. Hunter Dozier is the Royals’ best third base option, and he’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. The Royals have four decent outfielders: Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, and Jorge Soler. So, it seems third base is his most clear route to playing time.

Steamer projects Owings for a .252/.300/.378 batting line, 10 stolen bases, essentially neutral defense, and 0.4 WAR. These are basically in line with his career averages, although he could be more of a plus on defense - especially if he plays mostly in the outfield. 2018 was not kind to his usually solid second base defense and his typical below average play at shortstop. The Royals paid the market rate for Owings if he matches his projection - which is hardly a bad thing.

Of course, being a rebuilding team - or a team that should be rebuilding - Owings is a fine fit. Of course, there’s ongoing speculation that Whit Merrifield will be traded at some point. Merrifield is still making the league minimum in 2019, followed by three years of arbitration, making him one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. So, Owings can hold down second base in that case - although he is a massive downgrade - if the Royals decide to go in that direction.

Royals fans should hope that they are going the route of the Twins and Tigers in picking up players on buy-low contracts to hopefully catch lightning in a bottle. Owings doesn’t strike me as the trade chip type, although he could have value to a competitive team needing a glove-first guy with some speed off of the bench. In any case, it’s a respectable move.

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Jonathan Schoop Signs with the Minnesota Twins

12/6/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Minnesota Twins decided it was worth taking a one-year gamble on second baseman Jonathan Schoop. The pact is for the 2019 season at $7.5 million guaranteed with potential incentives. This is a significant pay-cut from the $8.5 million Schoop received in arbitration in the 2018 season. This was his last season of eligibility for arbitration and he was expected to earn about $10 million before becoming a free agent.

After a 32 home run 3.8 WAR career year in 2017 with the Orioles, he stumbled badly in 2018. He was traded to Milwaukee, where the Brewers hoped to give him a chance of scenery. He struggled even more badly and was non-tendered by the club, since they had no intention of paying him the $10 million he likely was going to receive in an arbitration hearing.

You may wonder how someone that hit only .233/.266/.416 could get that much money. He did still hit 21 homers and drive in 61 runs. Home runs are not an unknown for Schoop, who hit 16 in 2014, 15 in 2015, and 25 in 2016. While he’s not a Gold Glove second baseman, he also doesn’t hurt you. He had 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2014, 2 DRS in 2017, and 3 DRS in 2018. He was only slightly below average in 2015 and 2016. The glove isn’t a problem.

So, Schoop has power and he has a decent glove at the keystone position. These are two-thirds of what Schoop needs to really get paid in free agency. There were certainly other teams in on Schoop, but after losing their stalwart second baseman Brian Dozier to free agency, the Twins are in the position to be able to take a risk. Since he is extremely unlikely to suddenly fall apart in the field and he’s pretty much a lock for 20 HR, there isn’t really much to worry about if he finds himself.

The projection for 2019 by Steamer is .256/.298/.450 with 22 HR and 68 RBI and 1.6 WAR in 122 games. That’s very similar to Schoop’s 2016. At $7.5 million, Schoop is actually a bargain with those numbers, even if his salary is increased by some incentives. If he plays closer to 150 games, he’s pretty much a 2-win player, which is worth something like $15 million a year on the open market.

The Twins are actually making an intelligent move here. They are pretty much paying him to be a stopgap second baseman who could produce as little as 1 WAR in 2019 and be worth his contract. Of course, he was worth a mere 0.5 WAR between the O’s and Brewers in 2018, but it’s unlikely he falls flat on his face again. He was a bit unlucky on balls in play - .261 batting average on balls in play VS a .296 career mark.

Sure, Schoop doesn’t walk, but his power alone is pretty much enough to make him a league average hitter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when you consider he’s steady with the glove. It’s a bit concerning that StatCast saw his expected batting average was only .227 and his expected wOBA only .266, when his true numbers were .233 and .290. Of course, that just means that his batted ball profile was terrible. Anyone who saw him play much at all last year could tell he was just not himself.

It won’t take much for Schoop to return to form. This is a guy who can be a steady league-average second baseman, and if he catches fire like he did in 2017, he could be an occasional All-Star, too. The Twins are hoping that he does just that, and since they don’t plan to contend, be a useful trade chip. If he falls flat, he’s not blocking anyone in the farm system. He does displace Ehire Adrianza - who isn’t much more of a hitter than Schoop was last year - but Schoop has far more upside with his power.

The Twins suddenly have a ton of infielders, especially with Ronald Torreyes joining the fold, as well if he makes the major league roster. But, Schoop is worth the gamble, and the Twins are in the position where if they lose the roll of the dice, it will hardly kill them. Even then, Schoop’s upside is such that they still may get some value for him. It’s a hard move not to like.

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Ronald Torreyes Signs with Minnesota Twins

12/6/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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While the Minnesota Twins signed an infielder with a more familiar name in Jonathan Schoop to a one-year Major League contract, they also signed another infielder by the name of Ronald Torreyes. The former Yankee is expected to earn only $800,000 if he reaches the major leagues. He has played second, third, and shortstop adequately in the major leagues, and has also appeared adequate in right field.

The word “adequate” could be thrown a lot with Torreyes. He is adequate at making contact, adequate at running the bases, and adequate enough overall to be slightly above replacement level. That’s all you’re asking from Torreyes with that sort of contract - to be worth a couple runs (0.2 WAR) above some AAA scrub.

However, let’s take a deeper look at Torreyes’ batting profile. This is a .281 career hitter. Yes, that’s an empty batting average, but that is not nothing. In his career, he’s made contact with 91.5% of pitches he’s swung at in the zone. He’s also made contact with 77.5% of pitches swung at outside of the zone. Torreyes hits the ball. He doesn’t hit it far, but he hits it.

The real problem with Torreyes is that he also swings at over 40% of the pitches he sees out of the zone. Yes, he makes contact on a lot of them. But the best you’re going to hope for with his anemic career .094 ISO (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which is a measure for raw power) are a bunch of singles.

With Torreyes’ steady, if not spectacular glove, hitting .280/.310/.375 is going to keep you on a Major League baseball roster. But last year, he had a 15.7% strikeout rate and only a 2% walk rate. That’s not good. However, this is where things could turn around. If Torreyes can just take a few more pitches out of the zone, he’s going to get better pitches to hit. This is a guy who had a 6-7% walk rate in the minor leagues. If he gets back to that sort of plate discipline, his contact skills alone are enough to make him a .290 hitter, as we’ve seen in the past.

Torreyes could end up being a really solid utility infielder going forward. He’s not turning 27 until September 2019. The Twins are probably hoping that they get the guy the Yankees always hoped that Torreyes would be: a steady 1.0 - 1.5 WAR utility infielder that get can hot and anchor the bottom of the lineup. He’s got two more years of team control through arbitration, and guys like Torreyes don’t get pricey. This is a great signing that could prove to be great for both sides.

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Nathan Eovaldi Re-Signs with the Red Sox

12/6/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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When the Boston Red Sox re-signed pitcher (and playoff hero) Nathan Eovaldi to a four-year, $67.5 million contract, it gave me pause. That’s not to say that it’s a bad contract. After all, Eovaldi was highly sought after. When healthy, he’s one of the better mid-rotation starters out there. So, is this actually a good contract?

From a pure on-paper baseball perspective, this is an awesome move. This fills out the Red Sox rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi. Brian Johnson is still there, too, and he’s a decent “sixth” starter. Also, if Eovaldi’s arm holds up, he’ll be an anchor for the rotation along with the recently-extended Chris Sale after Rick Porcello leaves in free agency - although not a given, it’s very likely he will leave for “greener” pastures.

Let’s look at it as far as projections are concerned. Eovaldi projects for a 3 WAR in 2019 according ot Steamer. That feels about right. A 3.75 ERA, 8.3 K/9 (strikeout rate), and 2.3 BB/9 (walk rate) aren’t ridiculous to expect - although I’ll point out that his career walk rate is 2.74 BB/9. If he keeps the home runs down like he has throughout his career, though, a few more walks doesn’t hurt him that badly.

We’ll say that a “win” or 1 WAR of value is worth $8 million. So, 3 WAR/season would be worth about $24 million on the open market. Of course, Eovaldi has had two Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgeries in his career. So, there is certainly a discount on that injury uncertainty - but that really is true of any pitcher. At only 29 years of age in 2019, we can easily project him on a gentle aging curve

2019: 3 WAR (age 29)
2020: 2.7 WAR (age 30)
2021: 2.4 WAR (age 31)
2022: 2.1 WAR (age 32)

These projections do “guess” that he’s going to wear down as he reaches his age-32 season. But, as we’ve seen in the past, successful comebacks from Tommy John surgeries do tend to help a pitcher’s overall longevity. So, he could be a 3 win pitcher every year, and this contract is an absolute bargain. It’s not insane to think.

Of course, with that basic projection, you’re talking about a pitcher who’s worth 10.2 WAR over four years, or roughly 2.5 WAR. That makes a $16-17 million annual salary still feel slightly like a bargain. So, why is there skepticism?

Simply put, most long-term contracts for pitchers tend to look pretty bad. Look at Jordan Zimmermann, who signed with the Tigers for 5 years and $110 million,  after being a very solid pitcher for the Nationals. Eovaldi’s stuff is probably a bit better than Zimmermann’s, but look how far south Zimmermann went. His contract is now an albatross.

Of course, Eovaldi is owed about two-thirds of the money as Zimmermann, and Dombrowski didn’t offer that contract, as he joined the Red Sox a few months before that contract was signed. When Dombrowski signs a player, he feels the risk is worth it. (Miguel Cabrera’s monster mega-deal was forced on him by management in Detroit.) We’ve seen how well J.D. Martinez’s contract is working out so far - and that contract has an opt-out clause that is likely to be used.

Eovaldi’s contract isn’t going to kill the Red Sox, even if he suddenly declines - of which there isn’t any indication right now. This is a move that is made with 2020, 2021, and 2022 in mind. While this guaranteed salary does push the Sox close to their limit with offseason spending, it’s highly likely they don’t resign Kimbrel - and this was probably the better use of money anyway.

While I’m not sure that Eovaldi actually meets those fairly reasonable projections, this is a good deal on paper. Baseball experts agreed that Eovaldi would probably get a four-year deal in the $60 million range because of his age and past results. This isn’t an overpay for a World Series hero. Eovaldi is good and good right now. He’s not old, going into what should be the prime of his career. In fact, in relation to recent deals, even the very solid Patrick Corbin who got a ton from the Nationals, he’s actually a bargain.

Updated 3/29/2019

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Patrick Corbin Signs With Washington Nationals

12/4/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Washington Nationals continued their 2018-2019 offseason overhaul by hauling in the biggest free agent starting pitcher on the free agent market. He is reported to receive $140 million over 6 years, although there is $10 million in deferred money to be paid after 2025. He’ll be paid $23.33 million a year from 2019 through 2024.

Corbin was a 3 WAR pitcher in 2017 and a 6.3 WAR pitcher in 2018 in a career season. It's perfectly fine to believe that he's a 3.5 WAR pitcher going forward with potentially more upside. In fact, Steamer projects his worth to be 3.5 WAR on the nose in 2019. That makes him worth about $28 million a year on the open market. So, so far this contract looks OK.

Let's project this out a little further. As Corbin is going into his age-30 season, we can try and project his future WAR along an aging curve, where he loses roughly 0.3 WAR per season. Then, we have these numbers:

2019: 3.5 WAR
2020: 3.2 WAR
2021: 2.9 WAR
2022: 2.6 WAR
2023: 2.3 WAR
2024: 2.0 WAR

It's not unreasonable to expect that Corbin, barring serious injury, could produce a total of 16.5 WAR over 6 seasons. That's roughly 2.75 WAR a season, which would be worth about $22 million  a season if we value a 1 WAR performer at $8 million.

It was thought that Corbin would recieve a contract in the area of 6 years and $126 million or $21 million a season. Left-handed pitchers do tend to age more gracefully than right-handed pitchers, it seems. There's no saying that Corbin won't fall off a cliff. But, that's true of any pitcher. Personally, I'm hesitant to give any player over 30 a six-year guarantee. That guaranteed sixth year came with the cost of deferred money. I think that the Nationals pretty much paid market rate here.

That being said, it's not a bad move for the Nationals. Corbin will be 35 when this contract expires, and if he's as good as those basic projections suggest, this is going to be a good deal. Of course, he may be better than 3.5 WAR in 2019. But, in any case, this is a good deal on the surface.  If he keeps up the gains in his strikeout rate from 2018, this guy is probably a really good bet to pair with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg as the best 1-2-3 starter punch in the game.
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The Jean Segura Trade: Mariners & Phillies Swap Assets

12/4/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Some baseball fans may be surprised that the Mariners traded their all-star shortstop Jean Segura to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. But, as the Mariners are clearly in a rebuilding stage, it makes sense to move whatever trade chips you have in order to aim for the future.

But many have said that the Mariners return doesn’t look right. Of course, I plenty to say about that.

The trade:

Phillies get:
Jean Segura
Juan Nicasio
James Pazos

Mariners get:
J.P. Crawford
Carlos Santana


You may wonder, why would the Mariners trade their All-Star caliber shortstop? He’s arguably one of the better free agent signings of recent years. Well, he is making $17 million for 2019, 2020, and 2021, with an option for 2022 that has a $1 million buyout.

Plus, you shed a reliever about to make $9 million in 2019 - like you need that on a rebuilding team. Pazos may still have promise and is cheap and controllable. And, while Nicasio had a 6 ERA and knee troubles in 2018, his high strikeout rate and low walk rate suggest he’s actually worth that $9 million if healthy in 2019.

But then, the Mariners take on Santana’s $42 million and an unproven shortstop with upside not quite that of what Segura is in the middle of doing. This trade doesn’t look as good for the Mariners as the trade with the Mets did in the end. But, outside of obvious cost savings in the long run, what is this trade really?


Phillies Get Jean Segura

The Phillies are in win-now mode as their rebuild is ahead of schedule. The Phillies get out of the mistake they made with Santana and move young slugger Rhys Hoskins out of left field and to first base where he belongs. They also get the shortstop they need right now in Segura, who is much different than the - supposedly - on-base and glove-first Crawford.

Segura is far from expensive when you consider he’s a 3 win shortstop. He only made $9 million in 2018, and will earn $14.2 million a year from 2019 through 2022. He also has a $17 million option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout. He’s going into his age-29 season and is projected for about 2.6 WAR in 2019 by Steamer. That means he is looking to decline, so I will easily take the over on this projection, as will the Phillies.

But, even if that projection is spot on and even if he declines slightly each year going forward - something like 2.6 WAR in 2019, 2.3 WAR in 2020, 2 WAR in 2021, and 1.7 WAR in 2022, that’s still a total of  9.6 WAR, which would be worth something like $76 million over 4 years on the open market. They’ll only owe him $58 million or so. This is an excellent contract.

Really, the only issue with Segura is that he’s considered to be a disturbance in the clubhouse. He’s apparently not a very well-liked player. The Phillies don’t seem to have any issues with his makeup, though. So, the Mariners gave up a really good player. However, $14.2 million is a lot to pay for a win-now shortstop when you’re not in win-now mode.

Let’s also remember that the Mariners get the Phillies’ shortstop in return. We’ll get to him in a bit.

Phils get Nicasio and Pazos

Nicasio did have a knee issue, but he’s a known quantity. He was once a useful starter who’s become a more useful relever. The Mariners didn’t really need a guy making $9 million though. However, the Phillies can use him. Also, they are essentially eating the $9 million he’s earning in exchange for getting Segura. The good news for the Phillies is that he’s probably a strong contributor.

Pazos has promise, and unlike Nicasio who’s probably a buy-low candidate, he’s a sell-high candidate here. He makes absorbing Nicasio’s salary a little more tolerable perhaps. When you’re building for 2021, the Mariners are not going to need to stockpile relievers anyway. But, the Phillies could use him as a lefty out of their pen for a couple of years and be happy about it. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Between Nicasio and Pazos, the Phillies probably gain 0.5 a win. So, when you consider that even a slight disappointment from Segura is still surplus value, this is even better.


Mariners get JP Crawford

Crawford has a lot of upside which hasn’t been evident at the major league level so far. But Crawford could easily provide pretty much the same value as Segura in the long run, but in a different way. While Segura is contact oriented with average-ish defense, Crawford is seen as a plus defender with strong on-base skills. They are both valuable, just in different ways. Crawford is also younger and much, much cheaper.

Crawford is only looking at his age-24 season in 2019, meaning he’s not even yet in his prime! Steamer projects him for a .228/.321/.361 batting line while being about 4 runs above average on defense. That’s good for a 1.9 WAR in 146 games. That’s while making $555,000 in 2019. That’s not what Segura is doing, of course, but that’s almost a league average shortstop for next to nothing. Plus, his first year of arbitration is in 2021. Right there, the Mariners save about $27 million over the next two years.

However, the money savings isn’t really the main draw here. Crawford has shown flashes with both the glove and the bat. Scouts agree that he still has some modest raw power he could grow into. If J.P. pops a few more home runs or becomes more steady on defense, Crawford is easily a 3 win player, about what Segura is expected to be for the next couple of years. In arbitration, Crawford will likely not attain anywhere near $14.2 million in 2021 or 2022 by arbitration.

Of course, the Mariners may decide to sign Crawford to a team-friendly deal. If Crawford becomes more of a glove-first player, they will get a real bargain. That’s exactly what the Mariners are counting on. It’s not that they didn’t like Segura. It’s just that Crawford could offer the same value for less, and there’s still upside.

Carlos Santana

Santana is hardly a negative, really. In fact, he will likely replace a lot of the lost offensive runs from losing Segura. He actually gives the Mariners lineup an anchor outside of Mitch Haniger. Remember, this is a team that just lost Nelson Cruz. He basically fills that role.

Santana is due $17 million in 2019 and $17.5 million in 2020. He’s also due a signing bonus of $3,333,333 in each of those seasons. There’s also a $500,000 buyout on a team option for $17.5 million in 2021. Essentially, he’s owed $40.5 million. But, if you take Nicasio’s $9 million out of that exchange, that becomes closer to $31.5 million.

So, you’re basically paying Santana $11 million in 2019 and $20.5 million in 2020. At 33, Santana still projects as a 2.5 WAR player in 2019 and probably a 2 WAR player in 2020. For that money, and considering he can DH, that’s pretty good. Also, Santana was actually a neutral defensive player at first base  in 2018. So, he’s actually not a negative in the field.

Santana still walks a ton, strikes out less than he walks for the most part, and hits 20-25 home runs a year. That isn’t quite what Nelson Cruz just gave the Mariners, but it’s good enough. You’re not getting a better deal to anchor your lineup for the next couple of seasons.



Did The Mariners Get Better or Worse?

On paper, if you trust in the projections, the Mariners are probably better without Segura if you consider Santana’s steady offensive presence and Crawford still being useful. Of course, the Phillies are a better team with Segura right now than Crawford and don’t actually get worse without Santana, as Rhys Hoskins will no longer butcher in left field (-24 DRS in 2018!)

Essentially, this is a redistribution of resources. The Mariners save a significant amount of money in the next couple of seasons and only have to give some of that money to Crawford in 2021 and 2022 if he’s good. Of course, Crawford could never pan out. But, I still say the Mariners aren’t in that bad of shape. They may be slightly worse on paper, but they gained financial flexibility.

Did the Phillies Get a Lot Better?

Considering that Crawford was worth only 0.5 WAR in 2017 and 0.3 WAR in 2018 for the Phillies, Segura is an obvious upgrade. Rhys Hoskins can now slug from first base, which opens left field up for the underwhelming Nick Williams who at least won’t give away 2 wins of value in the field. The Phillies lose Santana who was about a league-average first baseman, but that’s made up by the gains at shortstop and the addition-by-subtraction of moving Hoskins to first.

Also, the Phillies take only very little extra money in 2019 with Nicasio while potentially getting a fine reliever. They actually save some money in 2020. They also get a cost-controlled shortstop that is likely league-average or better with a market value team option in 2023. The Phillies are a clearly better team now. Did they win this trade?

Who Won the Jean Segura Trade?

Whoever wins the Jean Segura - JP Crawford trade really depends on what Crawford does in 2019-2022. Segura would have to be absolutely terrible for this to be a loss for the Phillies. As is the case with most trades, they are meant to be pretty fair for either side. I like this trade a lot for both teams. The Mariners gain some flexibility financially for 2021 and 2022 while getting a player with upside and a middle-of-the-order bat to stay respectable. The Phillies aim to win the National League East.

The Mariners are rebuilding, but they’re hardly tanking. The Phillies were happy to match up with them and do some asset redistribution. It’s probably not the end for the Mariners but the Phillies are probably feeling pretty good right now. Both teams should after this trade.

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Mets - Mariners Trade Analysis: Who Won the Deal?

12/3/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Much digital ink has been spilled about the blockbuster Mets - Mariners trade that sent Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20 million to New York for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and three decent prospects - Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista. On the surface, this looks like this trade could be a win for either side. On paper, this looks like a fair trade.

The net result is that the Mets get Robinson Cano for essentially 5 years and $63.5 million - roughly $12.7 million annual average value. They also get one more year of Edwin Diaz at the MLB league minimum. The Mariners eat a good chunk of Cano’s contract by absorbing Jay Bruce’s and Anthony Swarzak’s contracts and send $20 million or so to help pay for years three, four, and five remaining on Cano’s deal.

For the Mets, this clearly looks like a win-now move. They get one of the best young closers in baseball, plus a guy who even at 36 is still an above average second baseman who will likely still be at least league average at 37. Plus, Cano can slide over to first and still be a productive player likely at 38. He’s probably a lost cause for the last two years of that deal. Diaz, on the other hand, comes with 2019 plus three additional years of team control in the form of arbitration eligible seasons.

While Diaz could get pricey, he is probably well worth whatever salaries he gets in arbitration, as long as he doesn’t flame out. Cano gives the Mets a pretty good player while dumping two players who were in dire need of a change in scenery. The Mariners look like they’re going backwards - and they probably are - but as we’ll see as we break this down, they may end up coming out ahead here.


The Mets’ End & Robinson Cano

Obviously, Cano loved the idea of returning to the Big Apple, even if it’s in Queens. Cano instantly makes the Mets a better team by perhaps 3 wins in 2019 and probably 2 wins in 2020 - taking at bats away from the now departed Bruce in the lineup essentially. As we’ve said already, the last three years of that deal may be a lost cause, but while he’s going to decline, it may not be as sharp as the majority of players.

Steamer thinks that Cano will be worth about 3.1 WAR in 2019 with a .283./343    .460    slash line, assuming slightly below average defense. There’s no reason for me to believe that he will be much less than average at first, second, or third base, wherever he ends up playing. But, I think that 3 WAR is reasonable. That’s worth about $24 million, or what he’s actually making on an average annual basis.

If Cano is worth 2 WAR in 2020 and 1 WAR in 2021, that’s $24 million in value. So, can the Mets get about $15.5 million out of his last two seasons? As a bench bat hitting from the left side with power, it’s possible he ekes out a win or win and a half in those last two years. That’s still a slight negative. But, when you consider Bruce and Swarzak dead weight - money you were going to pay anyway over the next couple of seasons, plus the Mariners cash - you’re almost breaking even.

Because I’m a bit more bullish on Cano’s defense, I’d say a 4 WAR season isn’t out of the question in 2019 or 2020. If he has a great 2019 and the Mets fans are smiling and he defies his age at 38 in 2020, this trade is already looking fair for the Mets.

The great news is, this is before you even count Diaz!


Edwin Diaz

It’s well-known that Edwin Diaz was a major part of the Mariners being an extremely lucky team in one-run games in 2018. He was worth 3.5 WAR, a feat that would make him “worth” about $28 million on a one-year deal on the open market. That’s assuming that a 1 WAR player can fetch about $8 million a year. Of course, can we really expect that sort of performance again?

Popular projection system Steamer projects Diaz for only 1.3 WAR next season. The general consensus is that he’s probably more of a 2 WAR player next year even taking a step back. If we’re conservative and say he’s worth 2 WAR in year one, 1.5 WAR in year two, 1 WAR in year three, and 0.5 WAR in year four, that’s $40 million of value over 4 years. His arbitration salaries will likely not amount to that, so that would be considered “excess value” which is always a good thing.

Even if Cano doesn’t live up to being a league average player in each of the three seasons overall - counting 2022 as a potential wash - this still looks to be an even deal for the Mets with a slight chance they come out ahead in the end.

But, even with the Mariners apparently going backwards… are they really?



The Mariners’ End

Jay Bruce was worth 0.1 WAR in 94 games for the Mets in 2018. Yes, that’s pretty dreadful. But in 2017, he was worth 2.6 WAR for the Mets and Indians. That led to a contract that brought Bruce back to New York and paid him $13 million in 2018 and will pay him $13 million in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, Bruce will be 32. He’s not necessarily washed up.There’s a cause for optimism in that the Mariners scouts saw something that will make him a useful role player on the 2019 and 2020 teams.

The real hope is that Bruce is able to be some sort of respectable in 2019 and 2020, enough to potentially flip him for a fringe prospect as a bench bat for the stretch run in 2020. After all, Bruce’s power is still in there. While .223/.310/.370 is hardly a good slash line, his 11.4% walk rate was a career high and his 20.8% strikeout rate isn’t bad at all - one of his better seasons in that regard actually.

Steamer projects Bruce to be worth 0.5 WAR in 119 games with a .229/.304/.425 slash line which amounts to something like league average but with decidedly below average defense. That’s not worth anywhere close to $13 million in value. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility he hits slightly better and is worth closer to a win. Considering he’s sharing at-bats with Ben Gamel and Ryon Healy means that he may actually - believe it or not - not be a negative. With the Mariners picking up Carlos Santana, too, in a separate trade, Bruce may never have to face a left-handed pitcher in a big spot at all.

Dee Gordon will slide to second base now, presumably. Bruce will probably find at bats at first base, left field, and designated hitter against predominantly right-handed pitchers. It’s not impossible that Bruce hits .240 with his usual good walk rate and manageable strikeout rate with his typical power. He’ll probably never be worth more than 2 WAR total over the next two years, but that gives you about $16 million in value.

Keep in mind that Bruce could catch fire and be worth 3 WAR. Then another team may be willing to take him if the Mariners eat some of his salary in exchange for a fringe prospect. That’s probably what the Mariners are hoping. But, if he’s a net-zero, the Mariners will live with two years of keeping him on the roster as a decent power option from the bench.


Anthony Swarzak

Swarzak has been mightily inconsistent. However, there’s plenty of reason to believe that 2018 was just an unlucky year. After all, a .344 batting average on balls in play is pretty unusual. While Swarzak had a 6.15 ERA and 6 home runs surrendered in only 26 ⅓ innings, his expected FIP (xFIP) was only 4.33. xFIP takes into account the high BABIP and HR/9 rate which aren’t really sustainable.

Positive regression leads projection system Steamer to see a 0.5 WAR mark for Swarzak in 2019. That’s with a 3.64 ERA in 65 innings. While that doesn’t live up to his $8 million salary, keep in mind this guy has been a shutdown reliever before. He may easily recoup $4 million in value here. Plus, it’s only for one year. He may not become the closer of the Mariners, but he well may, being probably the best reliever left on the roster. That’s especially true with Juan Nicasio and James Pazos being traded.

So far, it looks like the Mariners are only recouping about $20 million in value out of the $36.5 million in salary they’re taking on. But, these are short-term commitments.

It’s the other three guys that could make this trade a win for the Mariners.

Jarred Kelenic

Kelenic is considered the “get” of the deal for the Mariners. He’s expected to be a regular contributor by 2021, so he’s a couple years away. He’s still raw, but his raw power, arm, and speed make him intriguing. It’s too early to project him accurately, but his debut should come when the Mariners are truly ready to content in a couple of years. That was the idea here.

Justin Dunn

Dunn is very likely a useful pitcher for the Mariners by 2020, maybe even sometime in 2019. He’s got a good fastball and slider and decent enough curveball. Improvements of his command and of his changeup will determine if he’ll be a mid-rotation starter, back-end starter, or bullpen guy. Even if all they get out of Dunn is a decent reliever, the Mariners could make out well. It’s also possible that the former first-round pick becomes a trade chip.

Gerson Bautista

Bautista may be the most interesting guy in this trade right now. His numbers from 2018 look terrible, but they are based on extremely unlucky numbers on balls in play.  His 5 game debut with the Mets last year was atrocious. But, this guy has a big fastball, a decent changeup, and a developing slider. It’s possible that Bautista becomes the Mariners’ closer of the future, in which case losing Diaz doesn’t feel so bad.

The Salary Relief

The real reason that the Mariners made this trade is simple: it was a salary dump. The Mariners save something like $63.5 million over the next five years. The majority of that is in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This means that the Mariners could potentially sign an all-star caliber player to a three-year deal in those years. They also get two major league players who may never play up to their contracts, but could catch lightning in a bottle with one or both of them and flip them for fringe prospects.

Also, while Diaz was making peanuts in 2019, it’s not unrealistic that Diaz was going to make $8-9 million in 2020 in arbitration, and potentially $10-12 million in 2021 and 2022. While great closers are great, obviously, they are not musts for rebuilding teams. Also, as we’ve seen, Bautista could end up being Edwin Diaz lite. Maybe not, but that’s the risk you take in these deals.

What we do know is that the Mariners saved a ton of money. Also, Bruce and Swarzak were buy-low candidates who could certainly just be washed up, but it’s just as likely they’re still useful. They’re selling high on Diaz, and a lot of people think that Diaz alone could’ve netted more. But in the end, the financial flexibility cannot be overstated.


Overall Grade of the Mets-Mariners trade.

I’m actually going to say that I definitely prefer the Mariners side of this trade. A lot of people have graded the Mariners return as a B and the Mets return a C. That’s because three of those five Cano years could be a disaster. Also, Diaz could flame out, although unlikely. The Mariners get three really intriguing young guys. Also, my personal feeling is Bruce and Swarzak are being discounted as mere replacement level players who may actually have real value left in the tank. They will absorb at-bats and innings that the Mariners will have to make up somewhere anyway, without blocking anyone.

As I’m writing this, the Mariners have also traded shortstop Jean Segura, plus relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos to the Phillies for shortstop J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana, saving them even more money. The rebuild for the Mariners is well underway, and honestly, this team may not suffer nearly as badly as people might think.
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Sam Howard - An Underrated Future MLB Starting Pitcher?

12/1/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Colorado Rockies finished off the month of November by not tendering a contract to left-handed pitcher Sam Howard. While he had a decent four-game cup of coffee in his major league debut with the Rockies, Colorado decided that they didn’t really need him as part of their 40-man roster. It would seem that he profiles as a lefty middle reliever, but perhaps there is more here to Howard than his mere stats would suggest.

Sam Howard’s 2018 at AAA

Having a 5 ERA in AAA is hardly great for projecting your future value, and the projection systems aren’t kind based on past results. But let’s see what Howard really is. He’s a former Rockies 3rd round pick and he’s posted decent results in the past. The Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s league, and Albuquerque where the Rockies’ AAA affiliate plays is well known for being rough for young pitchers.

It’s hard to say how “unlucky” that Howard was, though, at AAA. His 2018 AAA FIP was 5.03 and ERA is 5.06. His strand rate was a pretty low 70.8 percent and his HR/9 rate of 12.6 percent was slightly high. His expected FIP of 4.67 is probably more in line with his actual performance.

Sam Howard’s MLB Debut

The Rockies saw enough to give Howard a shot out of the bullpen. He pitched only 4 innings with a single strikeout and three walks, but only surrendered a single run. He also had a crazy high 89 percent strand rate. While it’s hardly a back debut, it doesn’t tell us much. However, we did learn a couple things if we dig deeper into his Fangraphs player profile.

Sam Howard’s Future Value

According to FanGraphs, Sam Howard has a below-average fastball in the 90-92 range, an average-ish slider and an average to above-average changeup. His projected future value of a 40 suggests that he probably is doomed to the back of a major league bullpen. That’s hardly terrible, but there are a couple things that suggest that he may be better than that.

The thing that really stands out about Sam Howard is that his changeup is clearly his best pitch, yet he doesn’t throw it all that much. He’s pretty much strictly a fastball/slider pitcher with an occasional changeup. In his very limited debut, he threw his fastball 49 percent of the time, his slider 42 percent of the time, and his changeup only 9 percent of the time.

His scouting report and the pitch value of his changeup certainly lineup, as his changeup was worth 0.5 runs above average, which is a staggering 6.55 per 100 pitches. Compare that to his fastball (0.58 per 100) and his slider (-4.84 per 100). His slider is likely much better than that.



Should Sam Howard Focus on His Changeup?

While projections see him as essentially a replacement level reliever who should mostly face lefties - he was torched for .385/.529/.538 against righties in his 4 MLB games - there is that changeup. While it’s a small sample size, the scouting reports suggest that is his best pitch, yet that is not how he’s been utilized. A changeup is one of the best pitches for a left-handed pitcher versus right-handed batters.

That isn’t to say that doubling his changeup usage while throwing fewer sliders and slightly fewer fastballs will turn him into a back-end starter. But, at the very least, Howard is better off throwing more change-ups. If a team recognizes this, he could turn into a pleasant surprise as a middle reliever who won’t get beat badly by righties. He could perhaps develop into even a swingman type, since he has the endurance. That’s actually pretty valuable.

The Rockies should definitely consider bringing Howard back if they’re willing to see that his changeup could be his path to success. Otherwise, there are plenty of teams that could use a lottery ticket like Howard at the league minimum for a couple of years.

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Photos used under Creative Commons from slgckgc, Keith Allison, Keith Allison, slgckgc, Gerry Dincher