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Paul Goldschmidt Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals by the Arizona Diamondbacks

12/7/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Plenty has already been written about Paul Goldschmidt joining the St. Louis Cardinals on the last year of his contract. The Arizona Diamondbacks received five years of control of a mid-rotation starting pitcher, a decent catcher who could contribute as early as 2019 or 2020, a solid utility player, and a top-80 draft pick in the 2019 draft.

Goldschmidt is due $14.5 million in 2019 for his services, which is, honestly, pretty inexpensive for one of the best hitters in the majors. He projects to be worth about 4.2 WAR in 2019 according to Steamer with a conservative .277/.385/.488 batting line. At age 31 in 2019, a slight dip in his batting line is possible. His defense at first base is usually above average, although UZR didn’t like his defense last year while DRS did at +6.

The Cardinals are obviously instantly better with this move. Matt Carpenter moves back to third base, where his already strong bat becomes even more valuable. On the open market, Goldschmidt’s projection would be worth about $34 million in value. So, was the Diamondbacks return good?

The Diamondbacks Receive Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young

Besides the top-80 draft pick, the Diamondbacks get 5 years of Luke Weaver, six years of Carson Kelly, and a AAA minor leaguer in Andy Young. Weaver is the most MLB ready of the three, and he’s expected to slide right into the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Kelly and Young could also make an impact in 2019.

Luke Weaver was excellent for the Cardinals in 2017, but took a step back in 2018. Even in a down year, he was still worth 1.3 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR that uses FIP not ERA as a measure of value.) Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR in 2019. At only 25, Weaver is still looking ahead to his prime. If he’s a 2 WAR pitcher for even just three out of the next five seasons, this trade already looks like a win for the Diamondbacks.

The best thing about Weaver is he’s cheap, making the league minimum for 2019 and 2020, plus three more years of arbitration-eligible seasons. He’s easily the gem of the deal and really just has to stay healthy and be a roughly league-average starter.

Carson Kelly hasn’t been exciting in the major leagues so far as the heir apparent to Yadier Molina with the Cardinals. However, his minor league numbers and plus defense suggest he should be able to help the Diamondbacks in some capacity in 2019. Steamer projects him for 0.8 WAR with a .242/.316/.370 batting line and +4.8 runs on defense in only 53 games. He’s had very poor luck on batted balls in play so far in his MLB career, so that projection could easily be correct. Over the course of a full season, he could easily be a roughly league-average backstop. He’ll back up Alex Avila for now.

Already, the Diamondbacks seem to have “won” this trade. But that’s before we also consider Andy Young, the former 37th round pick. In many ways, Young is a lot like a guy that the Diamondbacks just let go in Chris Owings. Like Owings, Young plays second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield. Steamer projects Young for a 12 game cup of coffee in 2019, hitting .253.307.408 with adequate defense for 0.1 WAR. Project that over a full season, and you have something like a 1.1 WAR player who can cover the whole infield and the outfield corners. They also control Young for six seasons.

It’s hard to fault the Cardinals for making this move, though. This was going to be the cheapest way for them to anchor their lineup. The Cardinals probably won’t miss any of those three players. Also, because they traded for Goldschmidt before the season started, the Cardinals can still extend a qualifying offer to him after the season. If he rejects it - a one-year offer in the range of $18 million or so - the Cardinals can recoup a draft pick. The Diamondbacks were happy to get a good pick already - not much worse than what they would’ve gotten out of a Goldschmidt qualifying offer being rejected.

Also, while this was probably not in the Diamondbacks’ line of thinking - what if this is the year that Goldy begins to decline? His value is never going to be higher than it is now. Both sides did what they needed to do. The funny thing is, the Diamondbacks may not even be that much worse this year.

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MLB Free Agent Winners and Losers - Oliver PerezĀ  and the Arizona Diamondbacks (2014 & 2015)

10/29/2016

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Today on Free Agent Winners and Losers, we take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks' signing of left-handed pitcher Oliver Perez in March of 2014. This would actually turn out to be a nice little signing for Arizona.

Here's my  take on the signing from back  in March 2013:

"
The Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen issues in the past several years have been well-documented, and after giving up top prospect Matt Davidson for White Sox closer Addison Reed earlier in the off-season, they've also acquired several other arms, as well.

Most recently, they have added left-hander Oliver Perez on a two-year contract worth only $4.25 million – not a lot for a good reliever. After his career as a starter went south in ways no one could have predicted, Perez has reinvented himself as a relief pitcher in the past two years with the Mariners. His 2013 was very good, amassing 0.7 WAR as a reliever – a solid total.

Perez is not just a lefty specialist. He deals with right-handed batters fairly well, but he is definitely tougher on left-handed batters. It was a bit surprising that he signed so late in the off-season, but the Diamondbacks should have a good deal here. Left-handed relief is definitely a need for them, and Perez fits the bill well without breaking the bank. While Arizona's moves in recent years and even this off-season have been greatly questioned by many, this deal is a good one."

2014 & 2015 Breakdown:

As it turns out, the Diamondbacks were extremely awful in 2014. However, Oliver Perez was definitely not the reason for it, compiling 0.4 WAR (0.6 WAR according to FanGraphs), which is a great total for a reliever, with a 2.81 ERA (3.15 FIP) and a 11.5 K/9 vs a 3.28 BB/9. It was actually an improvement over his very good 2013 with the Seattle Mariners. The Diamondbacks did get a steal with Perez.

Not only that, but Perez was good for the Diamondbacks again in 2015 - 0.4 WAR. They ended up trading him to the Houston Astros for minor league pitcher Junior Ortiz in an August waiver wire deal. While Ortiz hasn't panned out as of the end of the 2016 season, it would be a good deal. Perez blew up for the Astros, costing them -0.7 WAR in only 12 innings pitched in 22 games! Perez went to the Nationals in 2016 and was roughly replacement level.
 
The D-Backs signing of Oliver Perez is the perfect case of getting the most value out of a bargain, then knowing when to let him go. Too bad they haven't been this successful on most of their other moves.
 
Verdict: Winner

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MLB - Jeremy Hellickson is Really Good at Home in 2015

8/4/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Photo credit: Flickr user Keith Allison
The Arizona Diamondbacks weren’t expected to be good this year, but they’ve hung around .500 for much of 2015. Part of their struggles have to do with the amount of home runs their pitching staff has given up. Some of that has to do with the homer-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix. While Rubby De La Rosa has been victimized by homers both at home and on the road, fellow offseason acquisition Jeremy Hellickson has actually pitched quite well at home. He has given up fewer homers at home than on the road (7 vs 10) and has a far lower home ERA (4.03 vs 5.94).

While Hellickson isn’t going to be the ace of a staff (although he looked like a potential ace in 2011 with Tampa Bay), he’s not as bad as he’s been on the road. His strikeout rate and walk rate have almost perfectly matched his career bests this year, and he has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. Were it not for those extra few homers and unlucky .321 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) on the road, we’d be looking at a mid-rotation starter. While Hellickson probably is a league-average starter at best, the Diamondbacks will be more than happy to have that. If he resolves his struggles against left-handed batters, Hellickson may even be a bit more.
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MLB - Rubby De La Rosa is Really Unlucky

7/12/2015

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by  Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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Not much at all has gone right for the 2015 Arizona Diamondbacks. But they have one pitcher that has simply had a case of unsustainable gopheritus. His name is Rubby De La Rosa. He was acquired from Boston along with pitcher Allen Webster for lefty Wade Miley. Webster has been an absolute disaster and is currently in the minor leagues. After today's start, De La Rosa has an ERA north of 5.00, but it's all due to the fact that he's allowed an alarming number of home runs this season.

Prior to today's start, De La Rosa has surrendered a home run on 19% of all flyballs he's surrendered. and 1.5 HR/9 (home runs per 9 innings). That's a pretty ridiculous amount, especially when you consider that he's had a decent strikeout rate (8.18 K/9) and a decent walk rate (2.28 BB/9). With peripherals like that, ERA estimator xFIP suggests that his ERA should be about 3.30.

So is Rubby simply really unlucky? James Shields has had a similar issue with home runs this season, with a 17.9% HR/FB.. Shields had a similar HR issue in 2010 when he had a 1.50 HR/9 and 13.8% HR/FB. His xFIP? 3.55. His peripherals were very similar to De La Rosa's, and they've stayed the same, with much more success, ever since. Shields is known to be a pretty good pitcher, and De La Rosa seems to demonstrate similar ability.

C.C. Sabathia has had pretty good strikeout and walk rates, suffering from HR issues as well in 2015. a 1.7 HR/9 rate is simply absurd for a pitcher of his caliber. Yes Sabathia isn't what he once was, but he's simply just giving up more home runs than he should be. His peripherals throughout his career have been comparable to De La Rosa's this season. He's a

If De La Rosa really can become anything like James Shields or C.C. Sabathia, that would obviously be a best case scenario. Top prospect Archie Bradley's struggled and ace Patrick Corbin still working his way back to regaining his prior pre-Tommy John surgery form. If De La Rosa turns things around in the second half to join surprising success story Robbie Ray as solid cogs in the rotation, the Diamondbacks may have at the very least a mid-rotation starter in the making. He still has ace upside and Arizona is right to stick with him.
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