Life... Successfully
  • Life Successfully
  • Intent-sive Nature
    • Gift Cards
    • Expert Publicity, Content, & Consultation >
      • Intent to Read Publishing
    • Jewelry
    • Healing Jewelry & Talismans >
      • What is the Meaning Behind Intent-sive Nature Healing Jewelry?
    • Healing Readings
    • Yoga & Meditation
    • Incense & Burners
    • Candles & Accessories
    • Crystals & Gemstones
    • Herbs
    • Essential Oils & Oils For Anointing, Magical Use, And Aromatherapy
    • Dream Catchers
    • Spells & Altar Supplies
    • Rune Sets & Accessories
    • Tarot & Oracle Decks, Books, & Accessories
    • Wands
    • Bath, Beauty, & Self-Care
    • Holiday
    • Books & Media
    • Music
    • Education & Homeschool Resources
    • Clothing
    • Baby Gear, Travel, Outdoors, & More
    • Baby Safety
    • Baby & Toddler Feeding
    • Toys
    • Decor & Home Accents
    • Wind Chimes
  • Writing, Web, Business, & Tech
    • Brand Shamans Brand Healing Journal
    • Write W.A.V.E. Media Thought Leadership & Tech Journal
    • Writing Tips Journal
    • The One-and-Only Internet Money Making Guide!
    • Writer's Resumes >
      • Lyn Lomasi >
        • Ask Lyn
      • Get Your FREE Writer's Profile & Online Resume
    • Be a Writer!
    • FREE Guest Post Submission >
      • Submission Guidelines
  • News
    • News Articles
    • Science and Nature Articles
    • Sports Break Journal >
      • NFL 2019 Squares
  • About Us & Contact
    • Become an Affiliate!
    • Promotional Banners
    • Disclosure, TOU, Dislaimer, & Privacy
  • Domains For Sale
  • Hire Us!
  • Family & Home
    • Mekai's Branches ~ Family Adventure Journal
    • Kymani's Travels ~ Family Travel Journal
    • The Nova Skye Story ~ Family Journal
    • Upstream Parenting Journal >
      • Upstream Parenting Book
      • The Pregnancy & Baby Care Guide EVERY Parent Needs!
      • The ONLY Potty Training Guide You'll Ever Need
      • Elementary Learning Supplies...
      • 10 Safe Toys
      • Soothe Crying Baby
      • Playing Cards With Kids
    • Life & Home Journal
    • Momtrepreneur Moments ~ A Business Mom's Journal
    • Successful Relationships; A Heart-Focused Journal
    • Better Plumbing Blog >
      • Hire Better Plumbing - Your Denver Plumber
  • Education & Literature
    • Heart 'N Mind Homeschool Journal
    • Free Learning Education Journal >
      • Two Affordable And Fun Toys For Teaching Kids To Read
      • Elementary Learning Supplies You Can Find At The Dollar Store
      • Free Counting Fun For Toddlers And Preschoolers
      • Why School Choice is Important in High School
      • Choosing Childen's Books That Create Smart Readers
    • Free Homeschool Worksheets
    • The Bibliophile's Library Journal - Book News, Reviews, & Info
    • Penning Your World ~ A Creative Writing Journal
    • Monsters Within Us ~ An Otherworldly Journal of Monstrous Incantations >
      • A Lighter Shade of Green
  • Health & Beauty
    • Whole Body Health, Healing, & Medicine Journal
    • Good Eats For The Soul ~ Vegan Diet, Recipes, & Food Journal >
      • Recipe Books By Lyn Lomasi
    • Fash Diva ~ A Clothing, Shoes, & Fashion Journal
    • Naturally Simple ~ A Self-Care & Beauty Journal
    • Senior Living
    • Disabilities Articles
    • Green Living Articles
  • Society & Causes
    • Causes We Support
    • Speak Up!; A Homelessness & Social Justice Journal
    • Animal Advocacy >
      • Pet Resources >
        • Heart 'N Mind Paw Rescue >
          • Pawsitive Parenting Pet Rescue Journal
        • Sounds of Nature
      • Animal Advocacy & Healthy Pet Parenting Journal
      • Positive Pet Parenting Journal
      • Raising Pet Positive Kids
      • Supermom ...Kind Of
      • Pawsitively Adventurous Pets
      • Purrely Pawsitive And Barkably Amazing Pet Training Tips
      • Dog Praising
      • Spirit of the Wild Lands and Animals
    • Motivational Friends Inspirational Journal
    • Straight Up LGBTQ Blog
    • Colorful Expressions
    • Inner Healing & Spirituality Journal
    • Naturally Connected Journey - Views On Life, Passions, & Interests
  • Travel
    • RV'ing Successfully ~ A Family Roadschooling & Travel Journal
    • Hometown Love ~ A Local Journal
  • Fun & Games
    • Gaming Successfully
    • Luna Starlight Comics
    • Crafting Successfully Arts & Crafts Journal
    • Culture Carnival; A Festival, Tradition, & Holiday Journal
    • Mouthy Momtrepreneur Journal
    • Clowning Around
    • Music Articles Journal
    • Entertainment Articles Journal
    • Humor Treasure Trove; A Funny Comedy Journal

Is Mike Yastrzemski a Legit MLB Outfielder?

9/17/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Baseball Fanatic
Picture
On September 17th, 2019, Boston Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski and his grandson Mike reunited at Fenway Park for the first time in awhile. It’s a dream come true for the 29-year old rookie outfielder for the San Francisco Giants who hails from Andover, MA. After playing four years at Vanderbilt, Mike has spent seven seasons in the minors, all for the Baltimore Orioles system until this year. His ascent to the Major Leagues was years in the making, and now he makes his debut at Fenway in left field, the position his grandfather roamed for many years for the Red Sox.

While it’s highly unlikely that we’re seeing the beginning of a Hall of Fame career for Mike Yastrzemski, his numbers in 2019 are pretty solid. Through 96 games, Mike hit .265/.324/.509 good for a 115 OPS+. Mike Yaz also had 19 home runs and 51 RBI. In his minor league career, he had decent, but sort of average numbers. In fact, the projection systems all saw Mike Yastrzemski as more of a 4th outfielder with some pop.

On that very first game at Fenway Park, Mike Yastrzemski hit his 20th home run of the season. It was a home run broadcast everywhere, a league-wide sensation. "Little Yaz" would finish the 2019 season hitting .272/.334/.518 with 21 HR. With the sudden success of a Hall of Famer's descendant, it's little surprise that Mike Yastrzemski rookie cards have been hot since that special moment at Fenway.


So, why is Mike Yastrzemski so good all of a sudden? Part of his success is fueled by a much better batting line on the road vs home and success against lefties as a left-handed batter. His 2019 season BABIP was .325, which isn’t incredibly high. Outside of a brutal month of June and some back issues, "Little Yaz" has actually been even better than his overall batting line would suggest for most of the season. But, is it sustainable success?


What Does StatCast Say About Mike Yastrzemski?

While Mike Yastrzemski is indeed related to Carl, it’s not fair to compare him to his Hall of Fame grandfather. But because his numbers don’t seem fluky on the surface, we need to look at his actual quality of contact. Right off the bat - pun not intended - StatCast shows us that he may be a bit lucky after all. But, it’s not that drastic. Mike’s expected batting average is .251, which is certainly significantly lower than his actual mark of .272. But, his expected slugging percentage of .484, when you filter out the loss in batting average, isn’t much off his current performance.

While Mike Yastrzemski may not develop into the slugger his grandpa was, StatCast’s expected wOBA of .341 isn’t that far off of his actual .357 wOBA, and still quite above league average. There are a couple of other things in his favor, too. StatCast tells us that Mike has above average sprint speed on the bases and an above-average jump on the ball in the outfield. While he has only stolen two bases, he’s been running the bases well, and he’s been a plus defender in the outfield, mostly in left and right field.

Although he’s hit some weak balls, he’s been barreling the ball well, and his hard hit percentage is in the 74th percentile. Having above average power and a respectable on-base percentage while adding above average baserunning and fielding to the mix is a decent package. Right now, Mike Yaz really looks like a league-average corner outfielder. He’s not blowing anyone anyway, but he was a really nice pickup for the Giants.



Why Did the Orioles Give Up on Mike Yastrzemski?

I’m not so sure that the Orioles expected Mike Yastzemski to become a solid regular all of a sudden. He was invited as a non-roster player in spring training and obviously showed enough to the Giants scouts that they wanted to trade for him. The Giants surrendered starting pitcher Tyler Herb, who would go on to pitch fairly well in AA Bowie for the Orioles before struggling mightily in AAA. It’s clear that the Orioles made a mistake with this deal.

Credit goes to the Giants scouting in clearly selecting a player who was ready to breakout. Soon as he went to AAA for the Giants, he tore the Pacific Coast League to pieces. Even though it’s an offense-friendly league, his .316/.414/.676 slash line with 12 HR in 40 games was obviously impressive. With the Giants outfield situation a mess for most of the year, Mike Yaz has found a home in left field alongside brilliant defensive outfielder Kevin Pillar. 

It’s safe to say the Orioles regret making that trade, because it’s very possible that Yaz would be roaming Camden Yards with Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander right now. While it’s not clear that Mike Yastrzemski is going to become much more than what he is right now - a very useful player - the Orioles have to be kicking themselves. The Giants are more than happy to have him, as he’s a legitimate MLB starting outfielder.
0 Comments

Baseball America 2019 High-A Minor League Player of the Year: Jarren Duran of the Red Sox!

9/13/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Minor League Baseball Fan
Picture
Congratulations to outfielder Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox for being recognized as the Baseball America High-A Player of the Year! For Salem in the Carolina League, Duran hit .387/.456/.543 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, and 18 SB in 50 games. That’s good for a 191 wRC+, which is obviously quite nuts.

However, Duran actually spent most of the 2019 season at Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs, where he hit a mere .250/.309/.325 with only 1 HR and 19 RBI. Even when you account for his 28 SB (against only 8 times caught), that’s good for only a 87 wRC+. However, despite his hiccup with the bat, Duran is a potential plus defensive outfielder, although he’s still transitioning from his original position of second base.

FanGraphs isn’t hugely big on his future potential value, giving him a 45 where 50 is a potential average Major League player. They’re high on his speed, of course, giving him a 70 out of a potential 80. But his other current and future potential values are not what you’d expect from a Player of the Year.

From Fangraphs

Hit: 40 / 55
Game Power: 30 / 40
Raw Power: 45 / 45
Speed: 70 / 70
Field: 40 / 50
Throws: 40 / 40
Future Value: 45

Of course, if Duran does become the plus defender in center field his speed and athleticism suggest, he would instantly be at least a league-average center fielder in the Majors. Saving runs in center field is extremely valuable. It should be noted that Duran was an excellent second baseman, but the Sox organization felt his athleticism was wasted at the position. The below-average arm doesn’t matter as much in center field, either.

The rest of the scouting report suggests that if he refines his baserunning instincts, he could be an easy 30 SB threat in the Majors. The question is if his hit tool develops enough to become a .300 hitter in the Majors. His plate discipline is decent enough and if he takes full advantage of his speed, the Sox have a really good player here.

It should be noted that the Steamer projection already sees Jarren Duran as a .281/.324/.402 hitter right now. Before you factor in his potential stolen bases, that’s already a 86 wRC+. Of course, that projection is heavily influenced by that Single-A outburst. But for a 23-year old with an ETA of 2022, the Sox could have a really nice late bloomer that can play both second base and center field.

What do you think of Jarren Duran as a prospect? I find it hard to get excited about a guy who dominates Single-A then stumbles so badly at Double-A. Of course, the former 7th-round draft selection Duran has his fans. Heck, he was included in the famous (infamous?) Gary Vee Direct 360 set. Unsurprisingly with the Baseball America prospect spotlight now placed on him, Jarren Duran’s cards are now listed in the $8 to $10 range.

As of this writing, the Gary Vee Direct 360 card is the only official Bowman rookie card for Duran and two minor league cards from the Salem Red Sox and New York Penn League (from his time in 2018 with the Lowell Spinners). Duran is definitely an intriguing prospect and I like his potential, but I tend to put my faith in FanGraphs scouting ratings. Could Duran blow away his ratings and ride his speed all the way to the top? He certainly could. Only time will tell.

0 Comments

Jose Canseco: The Red Sox Years

9/8/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
Picture
In one of the better trades the Red Sox made in the 1990’s, the Red Sox traded speedy, defensive minded outfielder Otis Nixon and infielder Luis Ortiz to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Jose Canseco. Obviously, it was a bit of a salary dump, with the Rangers clearly thinking they could replace Canseco’s bat with defense. To be honest, anyone with a brain at that time probably saw this wouldn’t work out.

Otis Nixon actually had an OK year for the Rangers in 1995, although Total Zone didn’t love his defense (-4 runs below average). He did, however, post a very good .354 OBP, and stole 50 bases - albeit being caught 24 times. He was worth 1.3 WAR, which isn’t terrible, of course. Luis Ortiz was… awful. Nixon would move onto the Blue Jays for 1996, so really the Rangers just saved some money..


Jose Canseco’s Solid 1995 Season with the Red Sox

With one year left on Canseco’s contract, the Red Sox were happy to take on a guy who hit 31 HR in just 111 games during the strike-shortened 1994 season. They wouldn’t be disappointed as he would help anchor a Red Sox lineup that included Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Tim Naehring, Troy O’Leary, and Mike Greenwell (who was in his last season as an above-average regular). Canseco would hit 24 home runs with a .306 batting average, his highest since 1988. Canseco also reached an important milestone, as his final home run of the season off of Jesse Orosco was the 300th of his career.

The Red Sox would make the playoffs, making it Canseco’s first postseason trip in five years.However, Canseco would go 0-for-13, with 2 walks, in the 1995 American League Division Series. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise good season.


Jose Canseco’s Hot Start to 1996 Season, Followed by Back Trouble

The Red Sox would resign Canseco in 1996. It all started off well, and in 96 games he would hit 28 HR and hit .289/.400/.589. Back troubles would cause Canseco to miss all of August and most of September.  In fact, Canseco hit 26 of his 28 homers before the All-Star break, and he wouldn’t even hit a home run after July 17th.

Still, in just 198 games between 1995 and 1996, Canseco was worth 5.6 WAR. I’d say that was more than worth a year of Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz…


Canseco Reunites with McGwire in Oakland, Red Sox Get Cash and “Wayback” Wasdin

After the 1996 season, Canseco would be reunited with “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire as he was traded back to the Oakland A’s for … “Wayback” John Wasdin & cash. While that sounds like a terrible trade, it actually would work out for the Red Sox in the long run. Despite his longball issues, Wasdin would overall be a useful pitcher. He’d eventually be a key part of a trade that brought Rolando Arrojo, Rick Croushore, and former Expo All-Star Mike Lansing to Boston. Lansing would be awful, and Croushore was ineffective in 5 games, but Arrojo was a nice find and put the Sox in the positive for that trade.

Of course, Canseco’s back troubles would linger in Oakland, but he’d still hit a few home runs along “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire. Then, of course, he’d put together a few more decent seasons, along with a monster season in Toronto in 1998, a very good season in Tampa Bay in 1999, and hung on in 2000 and 2001 to hit a few more home runs and still be a productive hitter when healthy.


My Thoughts on Jose Canseco’s Legacy

Of course, Jose Canseco is a very controversial figure in baseball. Canseco and his two books revealed the extent of the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) in baseball, which understandably upset a lot of people. Despite hitting 462 HR in his career with a very good 132 OPS+ over 17 years, Canseco will likely never get near the Hall of Fame for reasons that stretch beyond his own use of PEDs.

However, Jose Canseco remains a very popular figure in the baseball card hobby. Many collectors have created a sort of Cardboard Hall of Fame for Canseco and his cards are still highly sought after. Since his career began in the Junk Wax era and he was such a massively popular player in his time, there’s no shortage of Jose Canseco baseball cards to collect. Heck, Canseco continues to appear in current baseball card sets as recently as 2019! While he may never get a plaque at Cooperstown, Canseco will never be forgotten by the game of baseball.

...

P.S. Fun fact: Jose Canseco made his Major League pitching debut against, guess who, the RED SOX, in May of 1993. He gave up three runs on 2 hits and 3 walks...

Not so fun fact: Because of that pitching appearance, Canseco would need Tommy John surgery (elbow ligament replacement surgery) and miss the rest of the season. It also didn't help his back issues...
  Missing the rest of that season, and the extra damage to his already ailing back, also likely cost him the chance at 500 HR. What do you think?

0 Comments

The Year of Sonny Siebert - 1971 Red Sox

9/7/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
Picture
The Red Sox had some pretty good players back in the 1970’s. But, one you may not have heard nearly as much about was Sonny Siebert. A starting pitcher who was better known for his years with the Cleveland Indians, Siebert was mediocre in two of his four full seasons with the Red Sox. However, he was quite good in 1970, and won 15 games with a fine 3.44 ERA. He would be much better in 1971.

The Sox acquired Siebert along with Vicente Romo and Joe Azcue for Dick Ellsworth, Ken Harrelson, and Juan Pizarro. As Red Sox trades go, this was actually a good one for Boston. Azcue and Romo were replacement level, but Harrelson and Pizzaro only had one good year for Cleveland and Ellsworth never really did much after that. Pizzaro would have another good season later with the Cubs. Of course, that means the Red Sox won this trade, because although Siebert was mediocre in 1969 and 1973, he was quite good in between.


A lot went right for Sonny Siebert in 1971. Not only did he pitch very well, winning 16 games with a 2.91 ERA, but Sonny also had a great year with the BAT. That’s right, folks. American League pitchers still had to come to bat until 1973. What’s particularly incredible about Siebert’s 1971 season with the bat is that in no other season did he come close to being that good. In 1971, he hit .266/.289/.532 with 6 HR and 15 RBI. His career marks? .173/.204/.270 with 12 HR. Crazy fluke or not, it was a really nice year for Sonny.
0 Comments

Why I Believe Mark McGwire Belongs in the Hall of Fame

9/6/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Baseball Fan
Picture
A recent conversation with my buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. So, naturally, I needed to get down my thoughts about the “big boys” in McGwire, Sosa, and of course, Barry Bonds.

The opinions I have on these players may not be the most popular. However, for sports card hobby fans, you may actually like my opinions on Mark McGwire, and why - like Roger Clemens - he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame anyway.

Warning, lots and lots and lots of “advanced,” “dopey,” “geeky” statistics to follow… :D


Mark McGwire Set HR Records Early On!

Mark McGwire was a star with the bat very early on, starring in college for USC and hitting 53 home runs in his three years there. Thirty-one of those homers came in his junior year in only 65 games. He also hit .388. Unsurprisingly, those 31 HR broke the USC single-season record set just the season before of 19 by, hey, Mark McGwire!  

After being drafted 10th overall by the Oakland A’s and starring the 1984 Olympics, “Big Mac” would be underwhelming in his first minor league action. McGwire quickly made adjustments, of course, and promptly began crushing the minor leagues starting in 1985. After a strong showing at A, McGwire took AA and AAA by storm in 1986, resulting in a cup of coffee in late 1986. It wasn’t an exciting beginning to his career, but he did hit his first 3 of his 583 homers he’d eventually hit in his career.


Mark McGwire’s Massive Rookie of the Year Campaign

Obviously, McGwire blew away the competition for Rookie of the Year. But, beyond the baseball card stats, McGwire’s rookie season was particularly exceptional because of his ISO (Isolated Power) mark. ISO is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to get an idea of that player’s true raw power display. With that .329 ISO mark, McGwire was truly dominating with the bat.

While McGwire would have a few more big seasons with the bat early on, it took awhile for “Big Mac” to replicate that raw power. Part of that is playing at the Oakland Coliseum, known as a park not all that friendly to home run hitters. It seemed over the next few years that McGwire was going to develop into a “true three outcomes” type of hitter: meaning whenever he stepped to the plate, you’d expect a walk, strikeout, or home run. Of course, that wasn’t a problem as long as he was producing, even when the batting averages began to dip.

That is, until 1991.


What Happened to McGwire in 1991?

The back of the baseball card tells part of the story: .201 batting average, only 22 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, the A’s weren’t too great in 1991, either. But, it was Big Mac’s first below average season. To save the humiliation of potentially having his average dip below .200, manager Tony LaRussa actually sat him for the last game of the season. Fortunately for McGwire, that poor batting average was in part because of a .214 BABIP, which obviously is extremely low. Mac’s strikeout rate didn’t rise all that much and his walk rate was still stable. 

There were some other easy explanations for that dramatic drop in production. McGwire was having marriage problems that would inevitably end in divorce. He said he didn’t “lift a weight” all season, so conditioning was certainly a problem. But, McGwire also received vision therapy, something that would improve his already above-average plate discipline even more so in the second half of his career.


McGwire’s Bounceback Season of 1992

In 1992, the world pretty much forgot about his awful 1991 because he came back in a big way with a .268 batting average, 42 HR and 104 RBI. That performance was backed up by a .385 on base percentage and .585 slugging percentage, good for a 176 OPS+. Keep in mind that OPS+ is park-adjusted, and he played half his games in Oakland. That meant his performance was 76 percent better than league average. That’s pretty incredible. Most notably his ISO was back up to .317, his highest mark since his rookie year. 

He would start to build on that rebound, too, until something happened in 1993 that likely changed the course of his career - for better or for worse.


The “Lost” Seasons of 1993 and 1994 for McGwire & the 1995 & 1996 Monster Years

The 1993 season got off to a fantastic start for McGwire who hit .333/.467/.726 in his first 27 games before foot injuries essentially ended his season. He’d try to come back in 1994, and hit “only” .252/.413/.474 in 47 games, still struggling to stay on the field. It was also during this time that McGwire started using more steroids. He’d started using them in the 1989-90 offseason, but started using them more so to recover from injuries. At least, that’s what McGwire claimed.

Something definitely happened, though, because when McGwire got back into playing full time in 1995, he hit a massive .274/.441/.685 (good for a 200 OPS+!) with 39 HR and a huge .410 ISO. In just 104 games, McGwire was worth 5.5 WAR. Then, in 1996, McGwire launched 52 HR with a crazy .312/.467/.730 batting line (196 OPS+) and a .419 ISO. In 130 games, McGwire was worth 6.4 WAR. Trouble was, both of those A’s teams were terrible. Also, McGwire’s contract was up after the 1997 season. So, what would the A’s do?


The Mark McGwire Trade and the St. Louis Years

In 1997, McGwire wasn’t slowing down. He hit .284/.383/.628 with 34 HR in 105 games. It wasn’t quite the same crazy isolated power... not yet. The A’s, needing desperately to inject some fresh blood into the team, decided to trade their superstar slugger to the St. Louis Cardinals for three pitchers. Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein never amounted to much, although T.J. Mathews pitched some decent innings. Of course, in retrospect, it was a very underwhelming trade.

McGwire went on to hit 24 more HR with a .253/.411/.684 batting line - and an isolated power of .431. I don’t think I have to say much about how ridiculous that is, but consider that old Busch Stadium was a lot friendlier to hit at than the Oakland Coliseum. In fact, in 280 career games at Old Busch Stadium, McGwire hit .286.450.726 with 119 HR. That’s compared to .252/.380/.535 with 166 HR in 654 games! Such is the difference a ballpark can make.

Of course, Busch Stadium helped, but in 1998, McGwire would take it all to a brand new level. While the A’s hoped that McGwire would return to Southern California, and hopefully the A’s, McGwire approved of his new Missouri digs and re-upped with the Cardinals. It would be a good decision.


The Record Year: McGwire Beats Maris, Sosa, and the World (‘til Bonds, of course)

Of course, from McGwire’s own admissions in 2010 of having used steroids, 1998 was the key year that he used performance enhancing drugs. At this point, St. Louis had suffered through some mediocre years and baseball was still reeling from the player’s strike just three years before. The 1998 Cardinals wouldn’t be a world beating team, but they would be a winning one. It’s fair to say a lot of it had to do with their first baseman.

It also didn’t hurt that the 1998 Cardinals were actually a decent hitting team, with Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan having fine seasons, along with Delino DeShields and a young third baseman named Fernando Tatis. (Yes, the dad of Tatis Jr.) Unfortunately, a young Matt Morris and still effective Todd Stottlemyre couldn’t save a mediocre pitching staff.

In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa got into one of the craziest home run races in recent memory. It would end up becoming historic. Ken Griffey Jr. was in the hunt for awhile, but he’d match his 1997 total of 56 in th end. It would be Mark McGwire that would break Roger Maris’ single-season record of 61, hitting his 62nd home run of 1998 against - most appropriately - Sosa and the Cubs. Of course, the Cubs and Cardinals being such major rivals made the home run race all that much more exciting. Sosa would finish with 66 HR. McGwire would finish with 70 HR.

Not only did McGwire finish with more home runs, setting the single-season record that would stand until Barry Bonds would eventually break it himself. McGwire just had a monster season overall, with a massive .299/.470/.752 batting line good for a ridiculous 216 OPS+. By contrast, Sosa would manage just a 160 OPS+.

Of course, it didn’t end there.


McGwire’s Final Years

1999 would be a step back for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they would go on to post a losing record. However, it was at no fault of McGwire, who would hit .278/.424/.697 for a 176 OPS+ with 65 HR. It would also be the year he’d hit his 500th HR, seemingly cementing his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

By 2000, though, as the Cardinals were getting better, McGwire’s body was breaking down. Incredibly, in 2000, McGwire still hit .305/.483/.746 with 32 HR  in only 89 games. He’d also hit a big home run in the playoffs. The 2001 Cardinals would be extremely good, but unfortunately, it was also the end of the road for the 37 year old slugger. He’d hit just .187/.316/.492, although he’d add 29 HR to his final career total and still manage a league-average-ish OPS of 105+. Even at the very end, Big Mac was still all about the home run.

Of course, it’s pretty obvious now that McGwire had some help. Yes, the ballpark move helped. But, that’s a crazy power spike to come seemingly out of nowhere.

Yeah, we know now, there was a reason for it. But, was it all the steroids?


So, Would McGwire Have Hit 70 HR Without Steroids?

McGwire maintains that he only used steroids to recover from injuries, for health reasons, not just to bulk up. While there’s likely some truth to that, there’s absolutely no doubt that McGwire realized the benefits to using steroids for bulking up. So, of course, there needs to be some asterisks put on those massive numbers. But, as we learned later from Jose Canseco, the number of players using steroids was so many… so, did it really lead to an unfair playing field?

Many people are hardliners on the use of performance-enhancing drugs like steroids. I certainly was a hardliner at one point. But as the years have gone on, I now feel that there is perhaps a chance to give at least one of those steroid-era sluggers a chance. I’ll look at other cases such as Raffy Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds later. But, I really feel like McGwire should still get a plaque in Cooperstown.

I feel that Oakland Coliseum probably stole a few home runs here and there from McGwire. Since home runs have such a massive impact on slugging percentage (as they count as four total bases, which is how slugging percentage is figured), losing just a handful here and there makes a big difference in overall batting lines. Here’s the thing. If steroids actually added about 100 points to McGwire’s slugging percentage, would McGwire still have been a Hall of Famer? 

McGwire’s career OPS+ is 163.  If we were to regress his slugging percentages even 100 points in those monster seasons, it’s likely that the total decreases significantly. But even if you subtract 20% of his home runs 1998 forward, you still have a Hall of Famer. The point is that steroids may have helped, but…


Did McGwire Just Become a Better Hitter?

Mcgwire claims that he didn't need the steroids to hit more home runs. He says that his vision therapy, close study of pitchers, and shortening his swing is what led to the home run rampage. Are these difficult to quantify improvements enough to relax the impact of steroids and brute strength alone?  

It has been proven time and time again if you are looking to hit home runs, and you have the raw ability to do so, you will hit more of them. Usually, however, there is a trade-off. Not with McGwire. Of course, steroids do not improve your plate vision. Hitting home runs, however, can indirectly improve your walk rate. That's because naturally pitchers are going to pitch around you more.

Yes, McGwire did have intentional walks. But not as many as you may think. He had 28 in 1998, which didn't even lead the league. He had 21 in 1999, which led the National League. But in 2000, he only had 12. Yes, he played only about half a season, but that’s still not a lot. 

The point of this boring story, as Chris Bodig at Cooperstown Cred likes to say, is that those walks were more a function of those Cardinals teams not really being that great. He was by far the best hitter on the team. Even if he were early career Mcgwire, those intentional walks still would've happened I would argue. Sure, he got quite a few intentional walks but not an absurd amount of them.


The Launch Angle

So, yes, I believe that a good amount of Mcgwire’s home run hitting was skill. Also keep in mind that the great hitters of the era such as Mcgwire, Sosa, and Bonds all to some.extent figured out the launch angle. Griffey Jr was a natural at it. He had such quick bat speed that if he hit the ball at a decent angle, it was usually gone. Probably the best example of the perfect EV plus LA swing was Hank Aaron's natural stroke.

I've speculated for years why the “Bash Brothers” McGwire and Canseco started juicing in the 1989-1990 offseason as Canseco claimed in his book and McGwire later admitted. Of course, Canseco always claimed it was to beef up and hit home runs. Mcgwire said it was for recovery purposes. I think in fact they are both correct. After all, Mcgwire did struggle with a couple of essentially lost seasons. But, I think that the timing of the juicing is awfully coincidental.

Keep in mind that 1989 was the year that “The Kid” Ken Griffey Jr was unleashed on baseball. Also, keep in mind how pretty much everyone in baseball saw him smashing all the records. A lot of other players, especially the sluggers, saw what this kid could do. I wouldn't say it was out of jealousy. Griffey Jr. wasn’t truly exceptional until 1990. But, I'm sure there were many sluggers in the game that wanted to emulate what Griffey could do to a baseball. Who wouldn't?

As we know today, the key to hitting home runs is "barrelling" the ball by finding the sweet spot between batted ball exit velocity and launch angle. Steroids were some sluggers way to bulk up to get that extra oomph behind the ball. But even back then, it was clear that the long ball became more of a priority after Griffey arrived on the scene. 

Looking back now, there was swing tweaking for sure and sluggers started working out and building muscle harder than ever. Remember,steroids are not magic pills. you still have to put in the work and you still have to be very talented with your sport. All they do is give you a bit of an edge.

 In fact, had Mcgwire and canseco not spent so many years in Oakland, their home run numbers would undoubtedly have been significantly higher. Griffey Jr could hit a ball out of anywhere on pure.talent alone. So yes, I am insinuating that there was some compensation going on to keep up with one of the greatest raw talents baseball has ever seen. I'm sure there was talk behind closed doors. 

Baseball is entertainment. Home runs are entertaining. If the whistle had never been blown by Canseco, we may never have known better.


So Why Should McGwire Be in the Hall of Fame?

McGwire’s feats probably saved baseball. Yes, steroids were bad for the game. It allowed a few guys to post video game numbers. But did the home run race destroy competitive balance? Absolutely not. The best team in 1998 was a New York Yankees team that win with pitching and a lineup that was more interested in working counts and taking bases rather than hitting lots of home runs. 

(The elephant in the room here of course is Roger Clemens, who allegedly used steroids to extend his career. I will certainly get to the Rocket in a future article!)

The Cardinals were not a good team. The Cubs were good, and won 90 games, but having someone hit 65 home runs does not win you playoff games. Are steroids cheating? Yes. Do they destroy the competition? Looking at the teams who inevitably made the playoffs and made deep runs. I'd say most certainly not. 

Also, I'm sure the list of steroids users is much longer than we know. I'm sure Canseco was right and the majority.of the game was probably juicing. In that case it's hardly unfair… The real issue, then, is how do these juiced numbers affect the record books, and just how sacred all those numbers?

We may never know.


Did Steroids Extend McGwire’s Career?

So, for me, the real argument against McGwire being in the Hall of Fame is this: did steroids extend his career? Without the steroids, would have McGwire's career instead petered out in Oakland? I'll spoil my Clemens article a bit by saying this, but I will say they likely helped a bit. But, we will just never know. Clemens certainly reinvented himself a bit as a pitcher in the second half of his career, and McGwire certainly showed great maturity as a hitter after the personal distractions and lost seasons.

I believe that with McGwire having opened up about his steroid use, and still being one of the most popular players of all time, I think Big Mac should get a chance to be in the Hall of Fame. If you choose just one of he, Bonds, and Sosa, to eventually get in, it seems the easy choice is Big Mac. I’m sure a lot of fans will agree. 

Is that to say I don't think that Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, and other exposed steroid users should get in? Each of those players deserves their own in depth look. As for McGwire, it may take awhile. Still, for the sake of representing history, McGwire should be inducted, even if his records are forever tainted. He was fun to watch and made coming to the ballpark and watching his teams play a joy. After all, isn't that what baseball about?

Also, watching Pedro Martinez strike McGwire out at the 1999 All Star Game. That, too.


0 Comments

Who Was the Best Red Sox Player in 1993? Danny Darwin!

9/5/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Red Sox Fan
Picture
Red Sox Trivia Time! Who was the best Red Sox player in 1993 by Wins Above Replacement? If you guessed Roger Clemens, you’d be wrong. Heck, even if you’d guessed young shortstop John Valentin you still won’t be correct. It was a 37-year old starting pitcher. His name: Danny Darwin.

Along with Frank Viola and a young Aaron Sele, Danny Darwin helped pick up the Red Sox pitching staff from an unusually poor season from Roger Clemens. Yes, Clemens was about merely average in 1993. Unfortunately, despite a pretty good starting staff, Paul Quantrill kept losing games - despite actually being a pretty decent reliever for most of his career. 

Also, despite Mo Vaughn having a good year, Mike Greenwell putting up one of his typically good years, and John Valentin being a very nice young player, the lineup wasn’t great. That’s with future Hall of Famer Andre Dawson at DH, being, sadly, rather mediocre. Those Red Sox finished 80-82 under Butch Hobson.

Of course, none of that was Danny Darwin’s fault. 


Danny Darwin’s Career Before the Red Sox

Actually, Darwin had a very interesting career. He actually only made 371 starts in his career out of his 716 career appearances. He actually spent a good deal of his career in the bullpen and was bounced back and forth from the starting rotation and bullpen for most of his career. However, after a nice run with the Texas Rangers, he went to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he had one and a half above-average seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros. He pitched very well and returned as a free agent.

In Houston from 1986 to 1990, Darwin would be worth 13.4 WAR, 5.3 of that coming in his 1990 season when he won the NL ERA title with a 2.21 mark. Darwin started 17 games that year with 3 complete games while also finishing 14 games and saving 2 games. Still, the Astros saw fit to see him leave as a free agent. The Red Sox were only too happy to add the solid Darwin to their pitching staff.


Danny Darwin with the Red Sox

By the time he got to the Red Sox in 1991, the “Bonham Bullet” had already put together a pretty nice career as a “swingman” - a guy who worked both as a starter and a reliever. Unfortunately, Darwin’s first season with the Red Sox didn’t go so well. In 12 starts, he delivered a 5.16 ERA while dealing with shoulder problems and battling pneumonia. Fortunately for both the Red Sox and Darwin, this would not be a free agent bust.

In 1992, Darwin rebounded with one of his typical swingman seasons. He started 15 games and finished 21 more, appearing in 51 total games over the season. Overall, his efforts were worth 2.6 WAR. But where Darwin truly excelled in 1992 was in the starting rotation in the season’s second half. He pitched only one game out of the bullpen. In his 15 starts, he had a 3.50 ERA and 2 complete games. It was a precursor to his best season in the major leagues, 1993.

In 1993, Darwin started 34 games, pitching 2 complete games, 1 of them a shutout. Despite a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.068 WHIP, his 4.29 FIP was a harbinger of things to come. Darwin had a really nice season, but things would go south after that. 

In the strike shortened 1994 season, the wheels fell off for Darwin. He started 13 games, and while he went 7-5, had a miserable 6.30 ERA. He was up and down and had a couple of clunkers mixed in between brilliant performances. But arm trouble led to him blowing up in June, after which he was shut down. It looked like the beginning of the end for Darwin, and it was certainly the end of Darwin’s Red Sox career.


Danny Darwin’s Last Hurrahs 

After an awful 1995 season split between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers, Darwin caught on with the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 40. He actually pitched pretty well with a 3.02 ERA in 19 starts!  Darwin was good enough to net relief pitcher Rich Loiselle from the Houston Astros at the trade deadline. That trade actually was a win for Pittsburgh, who got a very good rest of 1996, a solid rookie campaign as closer in 1997, and decent returns in 1998 before he forgot where the strike zone was and was never good again. Meanwhile, the Astros, who’d been happy to reacquire Darwin, watched him struggle and get released at season’s end.

But, that wasn’t the end for Darwin. He’d catch on with the White Sox in 1997, pitching 21 games, 17 of them starts. His 4.13 ERA was a bit of a mirage, but it was good enough for the Giants to acquire him along with Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez in a trade that famously didn’t work out well for the Giants. The White Sox ended up with a solid closer in Keith Foulke and a decent set-up man in Bob Howry. Darwin and Alvarez would both be mediocre, Hernandez would be fine, but Alvarez and Hernandez would end up with the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays next season.

Darwin would hang around with the Giants for 1998, getting into 33 games, 25 of them starts, and wasn’t particularly good at all. In fact, Darwin was “worth” -1.1 WAR that season. That was the end of Darwin’s playing days. However, Darwin has hung around the game and as recent as 2019 is still a minor league pitching coach.


Danny Darwin’s Career Overview

Overall, Danny Darwin was worth 39.8 WAR over 21 seasons. That includes some really awful seasons where his WAR totals were negative. He was actually significantly better as a reliever, although overall he was a decent slightly better than league-average starting pitcher when he got the call.

Starter: 371 starts, 2396 ⅓ innings, 4.04 ERA, 53 complete games, 9 shutouts, 2.2 K/BB ratio
Reliever: 345 appearances, 620 ⅓ innings, 3.06 ERA, 171 games finished, 32 saves, 2.29 K/BB ratio

The obvious knock against Darwin were his platoon splits. 

Vs Right-Handed Batters: 6216 PAs,.234/.281/.361 - .641 OPS

Vs Left-Handed Batters: 6500 PAs, .277/.338/.437 - .775 OPS

In today’s analytically-driven game, Darwin probably would’ve been limited against left-handed batters and probably relieved much more than he started. It’s also possible he would’ve faced fewer batters per season, which may have saved him some of the arm trouble. Darwin was indeed “Dr. Death” on right-handed batters and more analytically-inclined deployment may have made Darwin one of the greatest swingmen of all time.

Of course, Darwin’s career was just fine as it was. He gave Red Sox fans a great 1993 effort and along with his above-average work in 1992 made that 4 year contract at least mostly worth it. He’s still in the game today passing on his extensive knowledge of pitching to younger pitchers. Here’s to a great baseball career that hasn’t even yet ended. Thanks for all your efforts, Danny!. 


0 Comments

Jason Varitek - The Red Sox Team Captain and His 2004 Career Year

9/2/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture
The last team captain of the Boston Red Sox, Jason Varitek spent parts of 15 seasons with Boston. He made his major league debut with a base hit in his first and only major league at-bat in 1997. Varitek was acquired by the Red Sox along with pitcher Derek Lowe in the infamous trade for relief pitcher Heathcliff Slocumb. It’s not even close who won that deal, even if Lowe had never done anything. Varitek was the starting catcher in 10 different seasons for the Red Sox and only wasn’t in 2001 due to injury.

Varitek was also one of the most popular players in recent Red Sox history. He was loved by the pitching staff and anecdotally was an above-average defensive catcher. While he was a bit below average in throwing out opposing base stealers, I can say that he worked with some pitchers that were notoriously slow to the plate. The defensive metrics see him as an overall defensive negative, but a lot of those negatives came from his brutal final season in 2011. From all the years I watched him play, I’d say he was at worst perfectly average behind the dish - but above average as a pitch receiver.


Jason Varitek Was Mr. Average


While being average is really not exciting, in baseball being average is extremely valuable. If you look at Jason Varitek’s 162 game average, you’ll see that would he hit 20 HR and drove in 79 RBI in an average season. Those are solid baseball card stats, especially for a catcher. Because of his solid work behind the dish, though, those league-average offensive stats allowed him to be an above-average regular by WAR in 6 out of his 15 seasons.

2001: 1.4 WAR (in only 51 games)
2002: 2.1 WAR (132 games)
2003: 3.0 WAR (142 games)
2004: 4.0 WAR (137 games)
2005: 3.9 WAR (133 games)
2007: 2.3 WAR (131 games)

He wasn’t bad in his first full season in 1999, either, with 1.9 WAR in 144 games. But, Varitek did have some poor seasons with the bat. His rookie year of 1998 wasn’t too hot, and neither was 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008, or 2009. But with a career OPS+ of 99, you can see that on the balance, he was perfectly average offensively. The good news is that Varitek’s dWAR (WAR from Defense) is a positive 8.8 for his career. So, in fact, Varitek was ever so slightly better than average, before you count his “intangibles” such as team leadership.



Why Jason Varitek and His 2004 Season Were His Career Best

Most fans may believe 2005 was Varitek’s best year in the Major Leagues. He won the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and made his second American League All-Star Game roster! OK, he did deserve the Silver Slugger.with a 122 OPS+. However, 2005 was also one of Varitek’s worst defensive seasons if you believe the defensive metrics from Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved. Still, his overall contributions were worthy of an All-Star appearance and were worth 3.9 WAR to the Red Sox.

Of course, in 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series for the first time in 86 years! Best season ever!

OK, that’s not why, but yes, Varitek was a big part of the Red Sox success that season. Despite no accolades, he was worth a career-high 4.0 WAR to the regular season 2004 Sox. He also hit a career high .296 and a career high on-base percentage of .390. His offensive contributions amounted to a 121 OPS+. Defensively, Varitek was 3 runs above average by Total Zone’s metrics and perfectly average by DRS. 

In the postseason, Varitek was OK in the Division Series. But, he was a major contributor in the classic ALCS against the Yankees. While Varitek was a non-factor in the World Series, it didn’t matter. 

Speaking of the postseason, in 2007, Varitek’s bat didn’t show up in the Division Series, but it did in the League Championship against the Indians and in the World Series versus the Rockies. So, Varitek really did help the Sox win their 2nd ring in 4 years.


Jason Varitek’s Legacy

Various injuries and trouble in his personal life did affect Varitek’s on-field performance at times. But, Varitek was loved by his teammates and is anecdotally one of the more underrated catchers of his era. In fact, I can’t think of another catcher that was as consistently league-average as Varitek. 

The only ones better I can think of offensively are Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mike Piazza. “Pudge” and Piazza are Hall of Famers and Posada has a case for a plaque. “Pudge” was easily the best defensively of his era. Joe Mauer was obviously great early in his career, too, which started towards the end of Tek’s own career. 

Sure, Tek isn’t a Hall of Famer. But, he did have a very nice peak and hit better than you’d expect from your typical catcher.The defensive metrics also mostly show that Varitek was in fact a very good catcher on defense. We don’t have pitch framing metrics for that time period, but I can almost guarantee he would’ve been among the league leaders. In fact, had Varitek not played in the same era as Pudge Rodriguez, it’s likely he’d be remembered as one of the best of his era without question, behind only Jorge Posada. 

It’s an old baseball saying that great teams are great up the middle. So, it’s no surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees had two of the best catchers in the game during their respective eras. Sure, Varitek didn’t come close to Hall of Fame standards. But, he was at least the #3 or #4 overall catcher in the American League in his peak years. Catchers like Tek don’t come along everyday, and you’d be hard-pressed to ever expect another one to come along. 


0 Comments

Trot Nixon - An Unsung Hero of the 1999 to 2005 Red Sox

8/30/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture
Christopher Trotman Nixon, better known as “Trot,” was a first-round selection of the Boston Red Sox. Despite how highly Nixon was regarded, his first few seasons in the minor leagues weren’t all that exciting. Nixon did get called up to the Major Leagues in 1996, and got 2 hits in 4 at-bats. His 1997 season at AAA Pawtucket was merely OK, although he did hit 20 HR and steal 11 bases.

But, it wasn’t until 1998 when he broke out at AAA in a big way, hitting .310/.400/.513 with 23 HR and stealing 26 bases. Trot was rewarded with a cuppa coffee in 1998 and didn’t do much to impress. The 1999 season, however, his true rookie season, would be a very good one.

As 1999 was the first season in which I personally began to watch MLB on a regular basis, Trot Nixon was a young star that I enjoyed watching play. In 126 games, Nixon hit .270/.357/.472 with 15 HR, 51 RBI, and stole 3 bases. Those Red Sox teams didn’t really run, after all. Also, despite 7 errors, Nixon flashed the leather with defense worth 15 runs above average thanks to his above-average range. 

Trot finished only 9th in Rookie of the Year voting, although it was a pretty stacked year in 1999. His own teammate, Brian Daubach, in his own first full season finished 4th. It was also Carlos Lee’s rookie year, although he didn’t outperform Trot, although Chris Singleton, who finished 6th in voting, actually did. The winner that year was Carlos Beltran, which was honestly a smart decision, especially considering the career Beltran would have.


Trot Nixon’s Solid Numbers and 2003 Career Year

Because of various injuries, Trot Nixon never would display his once above-average speed in the major leagues. So, while he was once thought as a 20 HR/20 SB threat, that never came to be. What did come to be was that Trot translated his spectacular plate discipline and above-average power to above-average major league performance. Injuries would also limit his range in the field, but he’d still be an above-average defender overall for the most part until the tail end of his career.

However, from 1999 to 2005, Trot was never a below-average player. Keep in mind that 2 WAR is a roughly average regular in the major leagues playing a full season.

1999: 2.9 WAR in 124 games
2000: 2,5 WAR in 123 games
2001: 3.8 WAR in 148 games
2002: 2.9 WAR in 152 games
2003: 5.1 WAR in 134 games
2004: 0.9 WAR in 48 games 
2005: 3.4 WAR in 123 games

Trot’s best year was 2003, a year that many expected the Red Sox to make the World Series. Of course, Aaron Boone made sure that didn’t happen… But Trot posted a career best slash line of .306/.396/.578 for a 152 wRC+ with 28 HR and 87 RBI. Those results were partially fueled by a slightly high .334 BABIP, but he did have a truly good year. He also hit very well in the playoffs and may have been the ALCS MVP that year had the Red Sox not been eliminated.

Nixon wasn’t a below average player until 2006, when he posted only 1.1 WAR in 114 games. Injuries finally caught up to him and he was never the same player again. He was truly awful after leaving the Red Sox for the Indians in 2007. and didn’t fare too well in 2008 with the Mets, either.


Trot Nixon’s Ability to Drive in Runs

There were a couple of knocks against Trot Nixon that limited his overall numbers. Firstly, he was dreadful against left-handed pitching (.630 career OPS vs LHP, ..872 career OPS vs RHP). The other major knock against him was that in the “clutch” it seemed like Trot was more likely to draw a walk rather than get a big hit. This may sound like a silly knock in today’s game where walks are much more highly valued. But, it is true that in high leverage situations, Trot hit just .256/.348/.433. That’s compared to .290/.380/.480 in medium leverage plate appearances and .270/.359/.466 in low-leverage PA’s.


However, I argue Trot was much more “clutch” than some commentators suggest. After all, Trot had 223 RBi in 864 plate appearances and 711 at-bats. That means Trot had an RBI for every 3.87 plate appearances and an RBI for every 3.19 at-bats. Those ratios are pretty spectacular. So, he made the hits he did get count! Trot was also an extremely good hitter in the 8th inning, with a career .879 OPS in that inning. 

The reason he has a poor reputation in the clutch? He was below average in the 9th inning, hitting merely .220/.332/.390 (.722 OPS), and he hit a dreadful .200/.304/.300 (.604 OPS) in extra innings. Those things being said, not all of those 9th inning plate appearances were high leverage situations and 71 PA’s in extra innings is an awfully small sample size. He also has positive career marks in WPA (Win Probability Added) and WPA/LI (Win Probability Added in Late Innings). The one downside is that his “Clutch” score was negative in every season except 2004 and 2005.

So, was Trot Nixon bad in the clutch? Perhaps, as far as the leverage indexes are concerned. What I can say is that Trot helped his teammates trot across home plate in high leverage situations on a regular basis. In that way, I’ve always felt he was underrated.


Trot Nixon’s Time with the Indians & Mets, Retirement, and Career Overview

Somewhat ironically, it was Trot Nixon who played for the Indians that the Red Sox came back to beat down three games to one in the 2007 ALCS. After a lousy regular season, Nixon was actually a good contributor for the Indians in the ALCS. It was a strange feeling for him, especially when he came back to Boston, where he received a very warm welcome.

Nixon retired before the 2009 season after a subpar stint with the Mets and a failed comeback in early 2009 with the Brewers. Trot went home to Wilmington, North Carolina to spend more time with his two children. He now serves as a co-host for a high school football highlight show called “The 5th Quarter” for a local channel.

As it turned out, the Red Sox turned to J.D. Drew to replace Nixon. Somewhat ironically, Drew took Nixon’s #7 with the Sox. While it was a frustrating five years for Drew, who dealt with many nagging injuries, overall he was actually a very similar player to Nixon. Drew, of course, had a great 2007 playoffs and helped the Sox win the World Series. But, replacing the popular Nixon, he never really endeared himself to fans. 

Trot Nixon wasn’t just a fan favorite for his consistent production, often underappreciated by non-Red Sox fans. He was a great teammate and his explosive temper actually endeared him to fans. Most of all, Boston fans loved him for his hustle and enthusiasm for the game. He constantly was getting his uniform dirty making great plays and hard slides on the basepaths. Trot became the inspiration for the term “Boston Dirt Dogs.” 

Had Nixon been a bit better against left-handed pitching, he may have posted even better numbers; the Red Sox often spelled Nixon against lefty starters for guys like Gabe Kapler, Wily Mo Pena, and other lefty mashers. Still, from a sabermetric standpoint, Nixon was an above average player for a long time, even playing through injuries and ineffectiveness against same-side pitching.

Trot, hope you’re having a great time with your new career and with your family!



0 Comments

Bernie Williams - The Yankees Star Even a Red Sox Fan Could Love!

8/29/2019

0 Comments

 
by   Phoenix Desertsong,  Sports Nut
Picture
When I began following baseball around the turn of the 21st century, the Red Sox and New York Yankees rivalry was as hot as ever. One of my favorite players to watch right from the beginning was Bernie Williams…of the Yankees. That's right. The long time Yankees center fielder spent all 16 major league seasons in the Bronx. I saw him right towards the end of his prime. Today, I feel like he's become vastly underrated.

For eight seasons, 1995 to 2002, Bernie Williams was consistently one of the best players in baseball. His counting stats were never that impressive, but someone who consistently hits 20 HR, 100 RBI, steals 10 to 15 bases, and hits over .300 is going to be damn valuable. Whether coincidence or not, it so happens that Bernie's peak almost perfectly coincided with the Yankees eight year Dynasty. What held him back, interestingly enough, was his "Gold Glove" defense.

That's right. The 4 time Gold Glove winner was actually a below average center fielder. Sure, he made the plays. The problem was that he didn't really have great range as a center fielder. I certainly never thought of Bernie as bad a fielder as the defensive metrics have him. In retrospect, he was probably better suited to a corner, but staying in center field is what gave him such impressive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) numbers. He finished with 49.6 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is nothing to sneeze at, but well short of the Hall of Fame standard.

However, Bernie was a postseason hero on several occasions and probably a better fielder than Total Zone would lead you to believe. He also won FOUR World Series with the Yankees and hit very well even in losing efforts. I always thought of Bernie Williams as a future Hall of Famer? Will he ever get a plaque in Cooperstown? It's highly unlikely, but he is on the Today's Game Committee ballot for 2022.

Then again, Chris Bodig makes an excellent case for Bernie Williams as a Hall of Famer on his excellent website Cooperstown Cred. I happen to agree with his arguments. But while I am usually a stats oriented guy like he, I'm going to look back at his peak performance merely as a fan…

Of course there will be some stats and a particular focus on his breakout career year. But, mostly, observations extrapolated from my experience and memories as a teenaged fan. Of course, even then I was obsessed with stats…


Bernie Williams and His Early Career 


Like many baseball stars I grew up watching, Bernie Williams' career began in the Junk Wax era of card collecting. In fact, Bernie's first cards debuted in 1987, the widely considered beginning over the Junk Wax overproduction. It's also the year of my birth.

Anyway, 1987 ProCards was the official cardboard debut for Bernie Williams. Several other minor league issues would follow in 1988 and 1989. Bernie's first official rookie card was 1990 Bowman, which thankfully has a glossy Tiffany version if you're looking for his key rookie card to collect. It's a great card. Bernie also appeared in 1990 Donruss, Topps, and Score. 

Bernie's major league debut wouldn't come until 1991, but by 1992 he would become an above average player in MLB. Bernie would post a 2.0 WAR Mark in just 62 games in 1992 and a 2.5 WAR Mark in 139 games in 1993. Building my "Junk Wax" Dynasty, I would be very happy to fill out my roster with a young Bernie Williams.



Bernie's Breakout Season of 1995

After a strong showing in the strike shortened 1994 season, Bernie would have his best season in the Majors by WAR. It would be the beginning of his 8-year peak. He would amass 6.4 WAR, with the best defensive season of his career by defensive WAR (1.7)... Ok, enough stats…

I wasn't watching baseball at that time, but 1995 was the year that Bernie was becoming the player I'd later admire. His 18 HR and 82 RBI were nothing to sneeze at. He did steal 8 bases, but was caught 6 times. However, he also hit .307. Keep in mind this is back when batting average was still far, far more important than on base percentage. These were stats that fans were excited about. 

The Yankees were getting really good, too. While the hobby was going into decline around this time, what kid didn't want to have some Bernie Williams rookie cards? He was a young star, and he was legit.


Bernie Williams: The Best Hitter of the Late '90s Yankees Dynasty, Who Was Almost a Red Sox...

Chris Bodig goes into it in great detail in his piece on Bernie Williams on Cooperstown Cred, but even as a more casual fan in the late 90's, I knew just by watching him that Bernie Williams was the best hitter on the Yankees. I often wished he played for the Red Sox. Well, ironically, it almost happened just as I was getting into following the sport seriously…

After the 1998 season, the Boston Red Sox actually made Bernie Williams a six year offer for $90 million - with a seventh year option on the table. Keep in mind, Mike Piazza signed a seven year $91 million deal with the Mets not long before that, at the time, the largest contract in baseball history. Arguably, that one worked out pretty well…

The great news for the Yankees is that they decided to offer a seven-year deal worth $87.5 million, which he accepted. The even better news is that the Yankees would've instead signed Albert Belle… and we all know where his career went after that. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they not only lost Mo Vaughn to the Angels, but they essentially replaced Vaughn with.Jose Offerman (who actually was quite good in 1999, believe it or not).

There's a non zero chance that had Bernie gone to Boston, the Sox may have won both the 1999 and 2000 World Series. In retrospect, the Yankees should consider themselves very fortunate that Bernie returned to the only organization he'd ever known. They likely would have won in 2003 and 2004, as well. (No one was beating Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2001.)

Oh, what could’ve been…


Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer?

From my observations, Bernie Williams was absolutely, positively a Hall of Famer. He had as many, if not a couple more, big hits in the postseason as Derek Jeter - who is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The Yankees not only may not have won all four of those rings - they may not have even gotten to the postseason some years without the consistent bat of Bernie Williams. As the Yankees primary cleanup hitter, he was the centerpiece of their offense. Period.

It also helps that Bernie Williams is also one of the most likable people to ever play the game of baseball. His second career as a jazz musician has also been a phenomenal success. Since he made so much money in his career, Bernie uses his musical talents mostly for charitable causes. If he’s not a Hall of Fame ballplayer, Bernie’s a Hall of Fame human being.

Bernie Williams is one of those guys who I’ll just throw WAR out the window and put him in the Hall of Fame anyway. As it is, modern center fielders are vastly underrepresented in the Hall. If he’s not elected into the Hall by the Today’s Game Era Committee in December 2021, I will be greatly disappointed. 

Bernie, I wish you  continued success in all you do!

You can visit Bernie’s official website: www.bernie51.com 
0 Comments

Boston Red Sox Cards - The Topps Heritage High Number Xander Bogaerts Rookie Card!

8/27/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture
I'm personally a BIG fan of the Topps Heritage product. While it may not have the big hits of Bowman Paper & Chrome, the card designs are classic and the sets have some fairly nice rookie cards. I've had my eye on the 2014 Xander Bogaerts High Number Rookie Card #H550 for a little bit. 

In early August 2019, this High Number rookie card had a PSA 10 pop of 189 and was selling for $20 to $25, with a high of $34. Raw, they sold for $10 to $15 like nuts on eBay! Interestingly, there are only 36 graded by BGS - one graded BGS 9, 31 graded BGS 9.5, and 4 graded BGS 10. But, by late August, there were only a few raw sales around $10 and very few of the PSA 10s were being listed. The only ones you’d find listed were anywhere from $60 to $75!

With Bogaerts easily one of the best, if not the best, current shortstop in the game, it's no surprise that people flocked to grab this affordable rookie card. Clearly, people decided to hold onto their copies. I expect PSA will grade more than a few of these before 2019 is out and with Bogaerts’ superstar play, it’s likely this will be the next of his rookie cards to see solid gains. 

The other of  Xander Bogaerts’ more popular rookie cards as far as grading is his 2012 Bowman Prospects card and its Chrome counterpart, both of which have exploded in price since June 2019. There are 159 PSA 10 graded examples of the Bowman “Paper” Prospect card. But, for some reason, I can’t find the population of the Chrome cards - PSA apparently omitted it from its POP report for that set. What I can say that the same card has 204 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint examples from Beckett, so the PSA pop of the Chrome card could be higher than its paper counterpart.

Anyway, the Chrome PSA 10 shot from about $20 shipped to $50 shipped in roughly a month. Now, that card is about a $70 example. Likewise, the graded “paper” card shot up from about $15-20 to over $40. Of course, the autographs are the more sought after cards, and they carry a $200-250+ price tag. That’s why the non-auto is so attractive, because of the significantly lower price point.

Topps Heritage High Number is not going to have nearly the same print run as something like 2012 Bowman and Bowman Chrome. So, it’s possible that the High Number Rookie Card could be an attractive long-term investment. At the very least, it’s a great rookie card of a Red Sox star with great eye appeal and a vintage feel.

What’s your favorite rookie card of Xander Bogaerts?
0 Comments

J.D. Drew is a Better Baseball Player Than You May Remember

5/24/2019

1 Comment

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture
J.D. Drew hit .278/.384/.489 with 242 home runs over a 14-year career. His glove was worth 69 runs in the outfield according to TotalZone. For his solid bat and above-average glove, Drew was worth a substantial 44.9 WAR. That’s comparable to Hall of Famer Edd Roush and Indians & Tigers legend Rocky Colavito. He has more career WAR than early 20th-century hall of famers Hugh Duffy and Roger Bresnahan. I’m not saying that J.D. Drew belongs in the Hall of Fame. But, at one time, there is a possibility that he could’ve gotten there.

Drew’s 1998 Fleer Update Rookie Card is a really nice looking piece. His card #U100 in the set got plenty of attention from prospectors in the baseball card hobby. As a can’t miss prospect, over six thousand J.D. Drew Fleer Update cards were sent in to PSA. As of May 2019, there are 819 PSA 8, 3477 PSA 9, and 2066 PSA 10 copies in existence. Today, you can buy a copy of a PSA 10 graded J.D. Drew rookie card for $4 to $5 plus shipping. What happened?

J.D. Drew and the St. Louis Cardinals Years

Actually, J.D. Drew turned out to be extremely good. After murdering AA and AAA in 1998, Drew had a torrid 14 game introduction to the major leagues, hitting .417/.463/.972. But, in 1999, after hitting well in AAA, his first rookie season was actually pretty mediocre with the bat (91 OPS+) but exceptional with the glove in center field (17 runs above average). So, in real life, he was worth 2.7 WAR, but that had to be a let down for everyone who had invested in his rookie card.


The 2000 season was a good one, though, for Drew. He’d hit 18 HR, steal 17 bases, and have a .880 OPS, good for a 121 OPS+. 2001 was a monster year, as he hit for a 160+ OPS. But even then, he started missing games here and there with nagging injuries. This would be a theme throughout his career. He would only play more than 140 games in a season three times. Even so, he racked up 18.1 WAR in 6 seasons with St. Louis.

J.D. Drew and His Career Year With the Atlanta Braves

After the 2003 season, Drew was traded along with Eli Marrero for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and Adam Wainwright. It would be a good trade in the end for the Cardinals as Wainwright blossomed into an ace pitcher. But it was also good for the Braves, who got Drew’s biggest season and the only season in which he hit more than 30 HR - .305/.436/.569 with 31 HR and 12 steals for 8.3 WAR.

Drew was looking pretty good at this point with 26.4 WAR in 7 seasons  Interestingly, though, Drew had zero All-Star game appearances, despite being an All-Star level player in all but 2003, and he only played 100 games that year and still collected 2.5 WAR. That’s because his power numbers were good, but not great, and he missed a lot of games with nagging injuries.

J.D. Drew, the Dodgers, and the Red Sox

A two-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers proved fruitful as he posted 3.2 and 4 WAR seasons. What’s most impressive is that his 3.2 WAR season was in an injury-marred 2005 campaign in which he played only 72 games. The Red Sox really liked what they saw in 2006 and gave Drew a five-year, $80 million contract.

While many Red Sox fans seem to remember only the beginning and end of that contract ,Drew actually was pretty good with the Red Sox. After an injury-marred 2007 in which he still managed to play 140 games but diminished at both the plate and the field, he was actually an important piece of the Red Sox’s run to winning the 2007 World Series. In 2008, Drew played very well and earned his first All-Star game appearance, and then he got hurt again...  

Fortunately, Drew managed to be just as good in 2009 and actually played 140 games. But in 2010, despite playing 139 games, his nagging injuries were clearly eroding his ability at the plate, although he was still a 3 WAR player thanks to still being above league average and very good on defense. In his first four seasons with the Red Sox, he collected 12.2 WAR. That’s not a horrible return on investment for $64 million over four years.

Unfortunately, at age 35 in 2011, the wheels just fell off for Drew. He would actually be “worth” -0.9 WAR for the Red Sox in 81 games, a season in which the wheels fell off for the Red Sox in general. Had he not been hurt, Drew could’ve helped save that 90-win season. But, he was clearly a washed-up player at that point. A lot of people remember the broken down Drew, and it’s too bad because he actually was a pretty good player.

Could J.D. Drew Have Ever Gotten Into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

The problem is that being “pretty good” doesn’t get you in the Hall of Fame, nor does it help you do well in the baseball card market. Drew was a very calm and quiet player and many people had the impression that he refused to play unless he felt one hundred percent. But, as someone who watched Drew a great deal, I can say that when he did play, he played very hard. He had a great batting eye and a great swing that could do a lot of damage when he was locked in.

Drew was also a very underrated fielder, I feel. His power numbers such as home runs and RBI weren’t eye-popping, but he made up for those with his on-base skills and overall ability to hit for extra bases. He was a perennial All-Star level player that just missed too much time and never really became beloved by any fan base.


Had Drew not missed substantial time in several seasons, it’s quite likely that he would be on the Hall of Fame bubble, right? It’s more likely that Drew’s quiet demeanor and unimpressive power numbers would’ve pretty much eliminated any chance of people seriously considering him for the Hall. Drew actually had a great career, considering how many injuries he suffered.

Still, he suffered his injuries playing hard and he stuck with the game he loved for nearly a decade and a half in the Major Leagues. That’s worth remembering. So, his rookie card being worth only $5 in top condition is actually quite a shame, although as far is the card market is concerned, it’s probably correct.


Still, J.D. Drew is a better baseball player than you may remember. I know he was better now than I realized back then. But, from a sports card investment standpoint, wow, did he let a lot of people down. Of course, it’s not Drew’s fault that over 6000 copies of a piece of cardboard were submitted to PSA for grading. (Plus who knows how many more to Beckett?) He just played the game he loved hard, and made the Cardinals look pretty good for choosing him fifth overall in the draft.

1 Comment

Junk Wax Dynasty - Bob Tewksbury and His 1992 Career Year

1/2/2019

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture1992 Topps Stadium Club Bob Tewksbury
Digging through all those generally worthless “junk wax” baseball cards of 1987 to 1993, you’ll occasionally find a card that commemorates a great season of a not so famous player. However, to celebrate Bob Tewksbury becoming the Mental Skills Coach of the Chicago Cubs, we take a look at his finest season, which happens to fall right in the Junk Wax era. In building a “Junk Wax Dynasty” it’s important to consider Tewksbury’s 6.4 WAR season with the 1992 St. Louis Cardinals.

The 1992 Cardinals didn’t do much; at 83-79, they placed 3rd in the NL East. Ozzie Smith, Ray Lankford and even Bernard Gilkey were all-star level players that year, but it wasn’t quite enough for them to make the playoffs. Tewksbury pitched like an ace that year, and he never again had a season quite like it, although he was decent in 1993 (2.7 WAR) and had two 3+ WAR years with the Twins at the end of his career.

Interestingly, FanGraphs sees Tewksbury’s 1993 season more favorably than his 1992 season. That’s because FanGraphs uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for its WAR calculation rather than ERA. But for purposes of “Junk Wax Dynasty” we are focusing on results, which is why we’re using Baseball Reference’s ERA/RA9 (Runs Allowed/9) based WAR. FanGraphs has Tewksbury’s 1992 season being worth 4.0 WAR and his 1993 season at 4.3 WAR, thanks to an inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

One thing that FanGraphs does show us, though, is that Tewksbury was probably a better pitcher than his Baseball Reference page may suggest. On Baseball Reference, Tewksbury was worth 21.3 wins in a 13 year career, 10 of those full seasons. But FanGraphs sees him as worth 31.3 wins. That’s because in his “worst” years, he actually pitched better than the results would suggest.

Tewksbury only had a career strikeout rate of 4.04 K/9, but a walk rate of merely 1.45 BB/9. He rarely gave up homers (0.71 HR/9), but with a batting average of balls in play of .300, he relied heavily on his defense. His career ERA of 3.92 belied an FIP of 3.65. So, in reality, he was actually a slightly-above average pitcher who just had some bad luck with defense behind him.

In retrospect, Tewksbury’s 1993 season is actually better peripherally than his 1992 season. In 1992, he had a strikeout rate of merely 3.52 K/9 but a walk rate of only 0.77 BB/9. His strand rate was a high 80.8% and his BABIP only .257, which are big reasons why his 2.16 ERA was a mirage compared to his 3.14 FIP. His 1993 season featured a 4.09 K/9 and a 0.84 BB/9. But he suffered from a .316 BABIP and a more “normal” 70.3% strand rate (career 68.5%).

Still, Tewksbury was actually the pitcher that a lot of teams thought that he was, a workhorse that kept you in games. Suffice it to say, the Yankees should’ve never traded Tewksbury for Steve Trout to the Cubs. Unfortunately for Tewks, he didn’t pitch well for the Cubs and spent a lot of time in the minors until the Cubs let him go and the Cardinals picked him up. He pitched quite well for the Cardinals at AAA, and the rest is history.

If you’re looking to build a team with players from only 1987-1993, consider adding a 1992 Bob Tewksbury to your pitching staff. Heck, even a 1993 Bob Tewksbury would make a fine fourth or fifth starter. At the very least, you know he’ll do all he can to keep you in the game. He was definitely a mentally skilled pitcher, and perhaps, was actually pretty underrated in his time.


Here are more baseball card articles you may enjoy:

- Junk Wax Dynasty - Dale Mohorcic and his 1987 Career Year in Relief
- Junk Wax Dynasty - Randy Ready and His Magical 1987 Season
0 Comments

Junk Wax Dynasty - Dale Mohorcic and His 1987 Career Year in Relief

12/30/2018

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture1987 Fleer #131 Dale Mohorcic Rookie Card
Relief pitchers are hardly a big deal in the baseball card hobby. Of course, guys like Dennis Eckersley and Lee Smith have their fans and collectors. But, a lot of the best relief pitchers out there, even the most consistent, don’t have much of a following. Still, when you’re building a dynasty baseball team out of cards from the Junk Wax era from 1987-1993, it’s good to find some diamonds in the rough, guys like Dale Mohorcic.

Who? Sure, Dale Mohorcic was never a household name. But in 1987, his efforts in relief for the Texas Rangers earned him 3.1 Wins Above Replacement for the Texas Rangers. That was a follow-up to a decent 1986 in which he earned 2.2 WAR. I’m sure you won’t hear people wax nostalgic about Dale, but he did have a couple of pretty good seasons as far as results are concerned.

Of course, with a strikeout rate of 4.3 K/9, that leaves a lot of your success up to the defense. Mohorcic’s FIP of 3.98 and FanGraphs WAR of 1.0 in 1987 (and 0.9 WAR in 1986) gives you more of an idea of the pitcher Mohorcic really was. Indeed, both his 1986 and 1987 seasons were fluky. He had a strand rate of 81.1% in 1986 and 80.1% in 1987, both of which are very high. He also had a BABIP of only .248, which is crazy low - although it was a more sustainable .295 in his good 1986 season.

So, who is Dale Mohorcic? Where did he come from, and what happened to him?

Dale Mohorcic the Journeyman

Mohorcic began his quest through the minor leagues began in the short-lived independent Northwest League with the Victoria Mussels. He was the ace of their staff in 1978 with a 2.02 ERA! Dale caught the attention of the Toronto Blue Jays, who purchased his contract. He was underwhelming in their farm system, though, and was released.

The Pirates were intrigued by Mohorcic, though, as a reliever. He actually enjoyed a fine season in 1980 mostly as a closer. The Pirates held onto him until after the 1984 season, trying him again as both a starter and a reliever, but he never really caught on. They let him go before the 1985 season.

He caught on again with the Texas Rangers and enjoyed a decent 1985 season in relief at AAA. He returned in 1986 and found his way to the majors.

After his strong 1987 season, he scuffled early on in the 1988 season. The Rangers decided to move on from him, deciding to try out Mitch Williams - who himself would struggle but become a pretty good pitcher soon after. Williams himself would be traded to the Cubs after the season in an otherwise underwhelming package for Jamie Moyer and Rafael Palmeiro, The Rangers won that trade. The Yankees picked up Mohorcic for Cecilio Guante, formerly a pretty strong reliever, but he only gave the Rangers 0.3 WAR for the rest of 1988 and 1989.

Mohorcic, on the other hand, actually pitched very well for New York, and gave the pinstripes 0.8 WAR in only 22 and two-thirds innings. He was dreadful in 1989 though, being “worth” -1.2 WAR. Mohorcic even spent time in the minors, where he actually pitched very well. Probably because of those good minor league innings, he did catch on in 1990 with the Montreal Expos, pitching well at AAA, and had OK results with 0.6 WAR in 53 innings with the big club. He hung up his cleats after that.

Dave Mohorcic as a Closer?

To be fair, Mohorcic isn’t really someone you’d consider a prototypical closer type pitcher. He walked guys liked a power pitcher, but struck out guys like a finesse pitcher. When he limited the walks, he was pretty successful. But, like a lot of relief guys that pitched to contact, you rely so much on the defense that it’s hard to stay consistent for long periods of time.

Mohorcic hearkens back to the old days of grinding out game after game. This is before bullpens became more specialized. You were either a mop-up guy or a back-end guy like a set-up man or a closer. Mohorcic gained a reputation in the minors as being a shutdown relief pitcher. While he didn’t blow anyone away with peripheral stats, it’s actually possible that Mohorcic could’ve kept pitching and ate some late innings for a few more years.

For my Junk Wax dynasty, I’d consider Mohorcic as a great candidate to serve as a middle reliever or a late inning guy strictly against right-handed batters in a 3+ run game. His platoon splits weren’t great (.247/.309/.364 against RHB and a whopping .305/.351/.446 against LHB). This was a guy who tied Mike Marshall for the major league record of pitching in 13 straight games. It’s hard not to want a guy like that on your team. He showed up and gave his best. In an age of bullpen specialization like today, he’d actually probably have fared a lot better.


0 Comments

Junk Wax Dynasty - Randy Ready and His Magical 1987 Season

12/30/2018

0 Comments

 
by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut 
1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready
In Junk Wax Dynasty, we look at players from the “Junk Wax” era of baseball cards and find the hidden gems from 1987 to 1993. For this installment, we take a look at the career year of a San Diego Padres utility player by the name of Randy Ready.

How many Randy Ready cards from 1987 were put into bicycle spokes? Probably a lot. Funny thing is, utility infielder Randy Ready actually had a career year in 1987. According to Baseball Reference, his performance that year netted the San Diego Padres 5.8 Wins Above Replacement. To put that in perspective, that’s the same number that a young Barry Bonds put up that year. Considering that the Padres acquired Ready in 1986 for a player to be named later that had a career War of -0.1 WAR, the Friars were quite pleased with his performance.

Before we get into that career year, though, it’s important to know what was going on in Randy’s life at the time. This dude dealt with tragedy the year before.. Check this out:

“On June 13, 1986, the day Ready played his first game as a Padre after having been acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers, [Randy’s wife] Dorene collapsed on the floor of their home in Tucson. She was unconscious for 7 to 10 minutes. During much of that time, her brain was deprived of oxygen.”

Oh, boy. That ended Ready’s season right there, so he could go be with his wife and three young sons. His wife had suffered a heart attack that left her with permanent brain damage, and she never recovered from it, So, Randy and his sister Cindy had to raise the children. Later, it would be found that some diet pills that his wife was prescribed were what gave her the heart attack. A few years later, a jury awarded the family more than $25 million in a settlement.

Of course, that eventual money couldn’t make up that loss. Baseball became Randy’s escape. So, it makes what happened that next season even more special.

Ready was a patient hitter who regularly walked more than he struck out. But in 1987, his bat exploded for a .309/.423/.520 batting line for a .943 OPS. That's a 153 OPS+ or 53 percent above league average. He hit a career high 12 home runs and batted in 54 runs. He added 7 steals but was caught three times, so he only added a bit of value there.

In 1987 he played second base, third base, left field, and right field. Ready was a steady average fielder at both second and third base and a bit below average in the outfield. But in 1997, Ready was worth 5 Total Zone runs above average in only 52 games at second base and 3 runs above average at third. He was even 3 runs above average in left field in only 16 games, partly thanks to an outfield assist. In all, he amassed 1.2 defensive WAR.

Unfortunately for Ready, a lot of this success was due to a .325 batting average on balls in play. His .211 ISO or isolated power was backed up by career highs in doubles with 26 and triples with 6. He'd never show that level of power again. So, with eventual career marks of .280 BABIP and .127 ISO, this was a major outlier.

Was Randy Ready in 1988?

Ready was not bad in 1988 but he would be traded to the Phillies along with John Kruk for outfielder Chris James. Obviously, Kruk would go on to be very good. But, it got worse for the Padres. James would be OK, but the Padres would trade James along with Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga for Joe Carter. Alomar and Baerga would go on to be very good for the Indians, and even Chris James had a strong year in 1990.

Of course, Joe Carter was a good player, but he went on to be terrible for the Padres. So, he was flipped along with Roberto Alomar (future hall of famer) for infielder Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff. McGriff would be good, but Fernandez would be underwhelming offensively. Imagine if the Padres had Kruk, both Alomar, Baerga, and Ready still… Somewhat hilariously, Fernandez would be part of what could have been an unassisted triple play started by - you guessed it - Randy Ready!

Fernandez would actually never be the player he was in Toronto again (with 2.2 WAR in 1991 and 1.1 WAR in 1992), but he would end up having a late career resurgence, ironically with Toronto in 1993, with Cleveland in 1997, and again very ironically with TORONTO in 1998 and 1999. Of course, the Padres only got one good year out of Wally Whitehurst (2.7 WAR). Man, the Padres made a lot of bad moves…

Anyway, back to Randy...

Randy Ready and the Rest of His Career

Anyway, Ready was never quite as good again after 1987. It’s not hard to imagine why, though, especially with what he had to deal with in his home life. His last really good year was 1991, in which he posted a 1.3 WAR in only 76 games. In that year, he hit .249/.385/.322 for a roughly league average .707 OPS. That batting line included a dreadful .207/.294/.207 (.501 OPS) against right-handed pitching, but a .265/.418/.367 (.785 OPS) against lefties.

The rest of Ready’s career was plagued by some inconsistency with the glove - having some good defensive seasons and some bad - that overshadowed his strong plate discipline. The good news is, he stuck around in the majors until 1995 and played in Japan for a year in 1996. But looking back now, the real thing that held Ready back from being an above-average super utility player were his platoon splits.

Career vs RHP: .246/.341/.356 - .697 OPS in 1180 PA
Career vs LHP: .271/.375/.415 - .790 OPS in 1308 PA

In today’s analytically driven game, Ready would have been strictly a platoon bat that could play second base, third base, and the outfield corners. He would’ve probably been worth 1.0-1.5 WAR in part time duty and perhaps he would’ve settled in at one position, either at second or third base with occasional starts in Left Field or Right Field against a left-handed pitcher. He was also not utilized nearly as much as a pinch hitter as he likely should have, especially in the National League. Still, he cobbled together a decent career as a 25th man, which is hardly something to sneeze at. It’s just interesting that he wasn’t utilized better.

Randy Ready as a Coach and Manager

Randy never really left the game, either. He returned to the game as a minor league manager in 2002 and served as the Padres hitting coach for a bit. That stint as hitting coach proved disastrous as the Padres had one of the worst lineups in baseball. Was that his fault, though? Probably not. Anyway, he has continued in the game as a minor league coach and manager. In 2017, he became a minor league manager in the Marlins system.

Ready is definitely well-liked in the game. The teams he’s managed have often made the playoffs and he’s been an overall winning manager. It’s a shame that his playing career really only had a couple of bright spots (1987 and 1991), but he did have quite a ride.

So, the next time you come across a Randy Ready baseball card, especially from 1987 or 1991, don’t be so quick to dismiss them. In fact, he’s the top utility player in my Junk Wax Dynasty. He deserves to be remembered, even if it’s just for that amazing 5 WAR season in the wake of family tragedy.


0 Comments

Troy Tulowitzki Released by Blue Jays - What’s Next for Tulo?

12/11/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
With two years and $38 million remaining on his contract, the Toronto Blue Jays decided to release the oft-injured shortstop and buy out his remaining two years. While that is a staggering amount of money to pay a player to simply go away, there is good reason for this move.

The Jays already have a fairly good young shortstop in Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Plus, Devon Travis is still there at second base, with Brandon Drury backing him up. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. will be holding down third base. While it would seem prudent to give Tulo a shot at rebuilding his value, keeping him around simply didn’t make sense for a team that has youth on their side.

As for the 35-year old shortstop, it’s hard to say if he can even remain at shortstop for a full season. Indeed, the projection systems see him as a part-time player at this point. But, this is actually where things get interesting.

His 2019 Steamer projection: 68 games, .252/.312/.422 with 10 HR, and average-ish defense at shortstop for 1 WAR.

While those numbers are a far cry from what the baseball world came to expect from Tulo before his injury-marred 2017 and his lost 2018 (due to bone spurs in both ankles) that means if he can even play half-a-season, he’s still valuable. Now that the Blue Jays bought out his contract, Tulowitzki’s services can be had for the league minimum for each of the next two seasons. So, who wants Tulo for two years and roughly $1.2 million total?

The question is, where does he play at this point? It’s possible he could play first, second, third, or shortstop. With league-average offense and the ability to not embarrass with the glove, it seems like he could fit anywhere, right?

Tulowitzki to the Orioles?

The Baltimore Orioles have Jonathan Villar at the top of their Shortstop depth chart. While speedy and not a zero with the bat, it’s possible that Tulo is still the better fielder at this point. There’s Breyvic Valera, too. Also, second base is pretty wide open, although the solid Renato Nunez probably can hold down third base. Still, there’s some sense here, especially at league minimum for a year.

No one else in the AL East is in desperate need of a shortstop. The Indians, Twins, and Royals certainly don’t need one. The White Sox are committed to Tim Anderson at short. So, who’s next?

Tulowitzki to the Tigers?

As a team that really needs to rebuild, Tulo may make some sense for the Tigers. Ronny Rodriguez tops their depth chart at short. While he’s probably about as good as Tulo at this point, second base is pretty open, too. So, a one-year deal for league minimum makes sense here, too. Like the Orioles, the Tigers have a solid young third baseman in Jeimer Candelario.


In the AL West, the Angels infield is solid. The Astros have Carlos Correa. The A’s have Marcus Semien. The Mariners are probably OK with JP Crawford. Elvis Andrus isn’t what he was with the Rangers, but still more a given than Tulo.

That makes only two teams in the AL that could realistically use TUlo. Neither of those teams would surrender talent for Tulo or take on that contract. He’s pretty much a veteran clubhouse leader who can provide some value off the bench for those two. Both the Orioles and Tigers could benefit from him just being there.

What about in the NL?

Tulowitzki to the Marlins?

While the Braves, Mets, Natinoals and Phillies are set at shortstop, the Marlins shortstop situation is a bit more unclear. Of course, they are in talks about Miguel Andujar - who can technically “play” shortstop. Right now, J.T. Riddle tops their depth chart. Miguel Rojas is there, too. The Marlins also have veteran Martin Prado hanging around. Still, you could see how Tulo could be a nice veteran presence on a rebuilding club. If he ends up playing mostly full-time and clobbers 20 homers, that would be nice. But he makes less sense in Miami than in Baltimore or Detroit. Also, would Tulo even want to play there?


Tulowitzki to the Brewers?

While this isn’t a perfect fit necessarily, the Brewers have Hernan Perez topping their second base depth chart and Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Really, it depends on how much stock you put in Arcia, but at this point, Tulo is projecting roughly as valuable as Arcia in about half the playing time. Plus, he’s far more valuable than Perez, and that means that Arcia can just play where Tulo doesn’t. Then again, the Brewers want to compete and Tulo’s health is not a given. That being said, the commitment is so minimal. It could be a creative fit.

Tulowitzki to the Cubs?

With Addison Russell’s future with the Cubs up in the air - due to the domestic violence allegations - Tulo seems like he could be a stopgap solution. While not a natural fit, he could still be a useful utility infielder even with Russell there.

While no one else in the NL Central needs a shortstop, there is an intriguing possibility in the NL West…

Tulowitzki to the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks are in a weird place. They aren’t quite in a rebuilding phase, as they are still a team that can contend, but they also just traded Goldschmidt - whose contract was expiring after 2019 anyway - and are looking to trade Zack Greinke. They also just lost Patrick Corbin in free agency. This is a team that needs to retool on the fly. Tulowitzki is not only cheap, but moving back to high altitude in Phoenix, Arizona - albeit not quite as high as Denver, Colorado - could boost his offensive numbers a bit. It may be worth a shot.

Tulowitzki to the Padres?

With the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies set at shortstop, the only other possible landing spot for Tulo would be San Diego. The Padres are just a mess, with Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. topping the depth chart at shortstop. Second base doesn’t look much better. Tulowitzki would at the very least make things interesting. The price is certainly right and it’s not like he’s blocking anyone.


So, the potential landing spots for Tulowitzki are:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres

Of course, some other team could take a flyer on him as a utility infielder (a reunion with the Rockies perhaps?) but these are the only teams that make sense to me. We’ll see where he lands.

0 Comments

Red Sox 2019 MLB Sleepers - Matthew Kent

12/11/2018

0 Comments

 
by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Picture
The 26-year old left-handed starting pitcher, Matthew Kent, is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the Boston Red Sox farm system. He’s no longer considered a prospect at his “advanced” age, but he looks to be a pretty solid pitcher due for a chance to debut in the MLB in 2019 or 2020. He just broke into AAA last year, and it wasn’t a pretty first start. But, Kent’s track record since being taken in the 13th round of the 2015 MLB draft has been very solid.

Matthew Kent 2019 Projections

Steamer: 4.74 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9
ZiPS: 4.79 ERA (4.49 FIP) 5.45 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 1.3 WAR

In his minor league career, Kent’s never struck out many batters, but he hasn’t walked many, either. He’s had a fairly consistent 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is definitely above-average. Kent held left-handed batters to a .241 average in 2018 in AA, but only a .264 average against righties. So, he doesn’t have obvious platoon splits, meaning he’s a realistic multi-inning option.

The MLE’s (Major League Equivalents) for Kent in 2019 aren’t fantastic, but they are passable. He’s never been that susceptible to long balls, so the ZiPS projection of 1.02 HR/9 is probably more in line with his past history. It’s possible that the strikeout rates are a bit low and the walk rates may be a bit high. Even then, a starter being worth 1.3 WAR is worth about $10 million on a one-year deal on the open market. This guy has potential.

That Kent projects so well to essentially be the Sox’s 6th starter speaks well to his ability. He’s not someone you ever hear much about either. He could log meaningful MLB innings late in 2019 or 2020.

0 Comments

Red Sox 2019 Preview: Third Base

12/11/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
There’s no way this author can talk about the Red Sox third base situation without continuing to grieve over the loss of Travis Shaw. Alas, he was traded - along with three minor leaguers - to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Yes, that Tyler Thornburg… he of the lost 2017 season and replacement level 2018 season in 24 innings. He was so bad that the Red Sox didn’t even guarantee his $1.75 million contract for the 2019 season…

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has been raking at Miller Field, while all the while playing his usual brand of solid defense at third base and even second base. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 WAR in 2018! That’s while making the league minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, he’s due for another 2.6 WAR according to Steamer… Whoops…

The good news for the Red Sox is that master team-builder Dave Dombrowski is able to cover for his only major misstep with the team. The Sox have a very solid young player in Rafael Devers - who could be just as valuable as Shaw in 2019. They also have two young players that may be decent players at the hot corner at some point, as well. Let’s see what the Sox have here.


Rafael Devers

2019 Steamer Projection: 560 PA, .270/.328/.476, .340 wOBA, 7.1 batting runs, 0.8 baserunning runs, -2.6 fielding runs. 2.6 WAR

2019 ZiPS Projection:  .265/.320/.480, -6 defense, 1.9 WAR

Devers is only 22 years old. He had a 1 WAR season with a .240/.298/.433 batting line and 21 HR. That’s not bad for a 21 year old, who was probably a bit overmatched. His -13 Defensive Runs Saved and -5.2 UZR/150 show he wasn’t quite ready with the glove, either. If the projections are right and he becomes simply below average with the glove, he’s an above average player. ZiPS is probably right to be skeptical about his defense. Even then, he’s probably at least an average regular - which for the league minimum and his power upside, the Sox will be happy to take.

Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez are certain to see perhaps a dozen games apiece at third base. But, you really don’t want either holding down the position all year. The good news is that the Red Sox are not devoid of third base prospects.


Michael Chavis

2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.300/.439, -0.1 defense
2019 ZiPS Projection: .242/.299/.449, -1 defense, 1.1 WAR

Chavis isn’t even on Steamer’s radar to have much more than a 7 at-bat cup of coffee. However, it agrees with ZiPS that Chavis is very likely to be about what Devers was last year in 2019 if he played full-time in the Majors. Of course, he’s going to be 24 in August 2019. His defense is known to be shaky, too, which is why he’s been shifting towards first base. The good news is that Chavis could still have some value. He would actually worth be giving a shot if he shows promise at AAA and Devers is failing or hurt.

After all, Chavis did hit .303/.388/.508 in 139 AA at-bats and .273/.294/.545 in 34 AAA at-bats, with an 80-game PED suspension mixed in. The power is real, and he has enough plate discipline to not embarrass himself. If he can become a passable third baseman, or even first baseman, he actually does have a future. It could even be late 2019 or early 2020.


Bobby Dalbec

2019 Steamer Projection: .229/.295/.432, 0 defense

2019 ZiPS Projection: .200/.280/.407, 0 defense, 0.5 WAR

Dalbec probably has no business being in the MLB in 2019, but if he got 450 or so at-bats, he’s probably going to be fairly above replacement level. Of course, that’s considering neutral defense. Scouts consider his defense to be adequate and he has an above-average arm. So, netural defense is probably fine to consider.

In 2018, Dalbec destroyed A+ ball with a .256/.372/.573 and 26 HR in 419 plate appearances, albeit with a 31% strikeout rate. He hit .261.323.514 in 124 plate appearance, but with a 37% strikeout rate. Steamer is a bit more optimistic about Dalbec’s bat than ZiPS going into his age-24 season. The strikeouts are concerning, though.

If Dalbec can trim the strikeouts and fare OK at AAA, there’s still a possibility that Dalbec tastes the majors in 2020. At any rate, he’s the Sox #12 prospect at the moment.

Even after essentially giving away Travis Shaw, it seems like the Sox aren’t in that bad of shape. Of course, one of Chavis or Dalbec becoming at least a passable regular at either first or third base would be a grand development for the 2020 season. If both pan out, along with Devers, the Red Sox are in good shape. Otherwise, that Travis Shaw trade could haunt the Red Sox for awhile. Still, when that’s the worst move you make and still win a championship, you’re doing OK.


Red Sox Third Base: B-minus

0 Comments

Red Sox 2019 Preview: Second Base

12/11/2018

0 Comments

 
by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Picture
After Ian Kinsler didn’t hit for the Red Sox after being acquired by them late in the season, Boston is looking forward to the return of Dustin Pedroia in 2019. Not only is Pedroia coming off an injury, but he’s not getting any younger, either. The good news is that he projects to be a league average player, and if his knee is sufficiently healed, he could be better. The Sox also hope for more of the same from super-utility player Brock Holt and a rebound from Eduardo Nunez.

Dustin Pedroia  

2019 Steamer Projection: 518 PA, .272/.344/.390, .321 wOBA, -1.5 Batting Runs, -1.8 Baserunning Runs, 4.0 Fielding Runs, 2.0 WAR

Going into his age 35 season, it remains to be seen what Pedroia has left in the tank after missing most of 2017. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his batting line will be close to the Steamer projection, but many Sox fans will take the over if he’s healthy. Also, depending on his knee’s health, he could provide even more value on defense and hopefully, even be a positive on the basepaths.

He’s earning $15 million in 2019, so if he’s just a 2 win player, he’s earned it. He earns $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It’s not like Pedroia is an albatross, but it would be really nice to see him finish his career as at least a league-average regular before bowing out after 2021.


Brock Holt

2019 Steamer Projection: 105 PA .260/.340/.375, .315 wOBA, -0.80 batting runs, .1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.3 WAR

As a super-utility player is meant to do, Holt kept the Red Sox at least respectable at second base in 2018. He was actually 6th in position player WAR for the 2018 Red Sox. One of the best utility men in baseball in 2014 and 2015, he was mediocre in 2016 and terrible in 2017. Only 30 years of age, Holt is very likely to match his projection, and possibly beat it in overall value if he racks up the plate appearances. Struggles from Rafael Devers at third could mean more time for Holt, as well. He was worth 1.4 WAR in 2018, and it’s not impossible for him to be worth that again - although hopefully the majority of that value is distributed among other positions, too.

Eduardo Nunez

2019 Steamer Projection: 63 PA .284/.318/.424, .319 wOBA, -0.3 batting runs, -0.1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.2 WAR

Nunez was a great pickup for the 2016 Sox. It wasn’t hard to see why the Red Sox signed him to a $6 million one-year deal with a $5 million player option - which Nunez picked up in late October 2018. Unsurprisingly, Nunez isn’t expected to receive many plate appearances at second base with Pedroia and Holt around. If he does have a batting line close to his career average - which is what he’s projected to do - and continues to be neutral on the bases and in the field, he’ll be easily worth his $5 million. He still serves as insurance for Pedroia, as long as he doesn’t repeat a -14 Defensive Runs Saved at second...

Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Rodriguez are also in the second base picture, but if the team has to give them at-bats, something has gone wrong.  They are depth you hope you don’t find yourself having to test. Overall, this is a group that projects for about 2.5 WAR, and the over is not hard at all to see if Pedey is actually healthy.

2019 ZiPS Insights

With the release of the 2019 ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski, there are a few more projections to consider. The most interesting is the departing Ian Kinsler. He had a decent 2018 season overall, although he struggled badly with the bat with the Sox. He projects for .252/.317/.386 plus 8 defensive runs for 1.9 WAR over a full season. It’s unlikely they reunite with Pedroia locked up, though.

Farm hand Tony Renda projects about replacement level, as does Ivan De Jesus.  Chad La Guerra and Brett Netzer aren’t looking to help at the MLB level any time soon, either. Second base is definitely a position that has little depth after Pedroia and Holt - Nunez is a stretch as we saw in 2018 at the position. Still, if Pedroia is capable, this is a position where the Sox should be fine.

Red Sox Second Basemen - Solid B

0 Comments

Red Sox 2019 Preview: First Base (1B)

12/9/2018

0 Comments

 
by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Picture
In Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Red Sox have a roughly league-average platoon at first base. Moreland can play against right-handed pitching and Pearce can play against lefties, who he mashes. Sam Travis and Blake Swihart are in the mix there, as well.

The most interesting outside candidate is Michael Chavis, coming off PED suspension and mediocre results, who is projected for a .248/.300/.439 batting line. The good news is that the Steamer projections are fairly conservative in this author’s opinion. Let’s take a look.

Mitch Moreland

Steamer 2019 projection: 350 PA, .251/.325/.441.329 wOBA, 1.1 Batting Runs, -1.1 Baserunning Runs, 1.8 Fielding Runs, 0.7 WAR

Moreland was a shrewd signing by the Red Sox in the 2016 off season that worked out very well. His subsequent two-year deal has also worked out well, although you’d want more out of your starting first baseman than 0.6 WAR. In a pure platoon situation, it’s very possible that Moreland greatly outperforms his .251/.325/.441 batting line projection. In 2018, he hit only .242/.305/.379 against lefties and .246/.331/.450 against righties. He’s only earning $6.5 million in 2018, just as he did in 2017, so he’s not exactly breaking the bank. Also, he is a plus fielder. With a little luck and having Pearce around all season, he could break 1 WAR

Steve Pearce

Steamer 2019 projection: 280 PA, .266/.344/.470, .350 wOBA, 5.7 batting runs, -0.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.6 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Since Pearce is primarily a lefty masher, it’s not outrageous to expect about 1.1 WAR from Pearce. He’s making $6.25 million in 2019, about the same as Moreland. He’s a worse fielder, but if he mostly plays first, that won’t matter so much. Also, if he keeps up his improved walk rate from 2018, he’s likely even more valuable than this.

The other guys may not amount to much, although Chavis is interesting in that he projects for a nearly league-average batting line. He also can play third base, if erratically. If Chavis shows something this year in AAA, the Sox may call him up in 2019.

All in all, this is an above average group at first base. It’s hardly exciting, but there’s a little upside here. This is not an area the Sox have to work on right now, especially if Chavis / Sam Travis can essentially replace Moreland in 2020.

Red Sox First Basemen: C-plus

0 Comments

Red Sox 2019 Preview: Catchers

12/9/2018

0 Comments

 
by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Picture
As a group, the Boston Red Sox are a bit underwhelming at the catching position. Steamer projects the three catchers on the Red Sox roster - Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart - for 1.6 WAR. That’s a bit below league average, although both Vazquez and Leon are above average catchers defensively. Of course, Vazquez and Leon combined for NEGATIVE 1.7 WAR last season, when the team won 108 games. It’s most likely that they don’t repeat that. Let’s take a look.


Christian Vazquez

2019 Steamer: 384 PA .256/.305/.367, .293 wOBA, -10.0 batting runs, -0.8 Baserunning Runs, 1.7 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Vazquez had a dreadful year with the bat in 2018, but it was mostly due to a .237 batting average on balls in play (career .293 BABIP). He’ll probably never be a fantastic hitter, but the Sox hope he’s more like his 2017 with the bat. If he hits .290/.330/.400, he’ll be about a league average catcher with his glovework and positive pitch framing marks. Even if he’s closer to .260/.300/.370, he’s still a decent “real life” catcher, although you wouldn’t want to touch him in fantasy baseball..

Sandy Leon

2019 Steamer: 192 PA, .225/.285/.346 .277 wOBA, -7.5 Batting Runs, -0.5 Baserunning Runs, 1.0 Fielding Runs, 0.3 WAR

Like Vazquez, Sandy Leon had a terrible regular season with the bat in 2018. Also like Vazquez, he had horrible luck on batted balls in play (.226 BABIP / .290 BABIP career). While it’s unlikely he’ll have another year like his 2016 - .310/.369/.476 in 78 games for 2.5 WAR (!) - it’s not impossible.  Still, his Steamer projection is in line with his career numbers, and 0.3 WAR is acceptable.

Blake Swihart

2019 Steamer: 64 PA, .235/.300/.353 .287 wOBA, -2.0 Batting Runs, 0.1 Baserunning Runs -0.1 Fielding Runs, 0.1 WAR

Swihart is a fairly forgotten man at this point. It’s very likely he greatly outperforms that projection. He’s expected to remain at catcher, although he’s been passable in left field and first base. The bar is so low for catchers at this point that if he impresses in spring training, he may even be trade bait if the Sox have no room for him on the roster - which is likely.

While catcher is definitely not a strength for the 2019 Red Sox, it’s very easy for them to beat what they got out of the position in 2018. It’s not a position of clear weakness that the Sox need to address, and Vazquez still has upside. Plus, Leon has shown the tendency to get hot, so this could end up being a lot better than the C-minus grade we have to give them right now.

Red Sox Catchers: C-minus

0 Comments

Cameron Rupp Signs With San Francisco Giants

12/8/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
In their search for a strong backup catcher to play behind Buster Posey, the Giants signed Cameron Rupp. Formerly a solid backup catcher with power with the Phillies, Rupp bounced around in 2018, playing with three different teams at their AAA affiliates.

Rupp caught fire with the Rangers AAA team, hitting .274/.346/.540 albeit with a 34.6 percent strikeout rate. Then the Rangers let him go, where Rupp would go on to struggle with the Twins and Mariners. Overall, it was a pretty forgettable and frustrating season for him.

Defensively Rupp is not known for his framing skills. Really, he's not well regarded as a backstop overall. However, he has power, and he could work with Posey on some things.

Projection system Steamer doesn't like him at all in 2019. It projects a .202/.275/.350 batting line with no playing time. Rupp should display more raw power than that. Baseball reference lists his Marcel projection, which is .233/.302/.414 in 233 plate appearances. That seems like a more likely outcome.

Currently, the Giants have Aramis Garcia as their backup catcher. He's a better defensive catcher, but offers nowhere near Rupp's power potential. It will be interesting to see if Rupp displaces Garcia when spring training is out in 2019.

0 Comments

Andres Blanco Signs With Atlanta Braves

12/8/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
The Atlanta Braves added a potential utility player in Andres Blanco. Entering his age 35 season, he figures to add some roster depth. A perfectly adequate defender at second base and shortstop, the Braves are happy to have his veteran presence around.

Blanco has never hit much in the major leagues outside of a hot 2015 where he did a lot of damage off the bench as a pinch hitter and third baseman. That year he hit .292/.360/.502 with 7 home runs. Interestingly, third base has been Blanco's worst position defensively.

However, after a couple of down years, Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 at AAA for the Brewers in 2018. Steamer projects Blanco for a .232/.298/.355 batting line. With his league average defense at second and third base, as well as the ability to cameo at third base, first base, and the outfield corners, he provides useful depth. If he catches fire, the Braves could enjoy one last hurrah from Blanco.

0 Comments

Paul Goldschmidt Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals by the Arizona Diamondbacks

12/7/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
Plenty has already been written about Paul Goldschmidt joining the St. Louis Cardinals on the last year of his contract. The Arizona Diamondbacks received five years of control of a mid-rotation starting pitcher, a decent catcher who could contribute as early as 2019 or 2020, a solid utility player, and a top-80 draft pick in the 2019 draft.

Goldschmidt is due $14.5 million in 2019 for his services, which is, honestly, pretty inexpensive for one of the best hitters in the majors. He projects to be worth about 4.2 WAR in 2019 according to Steamer with a conservative .277/.385/.488 batting line. At age 31 in 2019, a slight dip in his batting line is possible. His defense at first base is usually above average, although UZR didn’t like his defense last year while DRS did at +6.

The Cardinals are obviously instantly better with this move. Matt Carpenter moves back to third base, where his already strong bat becomes even more valuable. On the open market, Goldschmidt’s projection would be worth about $34 million in value. So, was the Diamondbacks return good?

The Diamondbacks Receive Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young

Besides the top-80 draft pick, the Diamondbacks get 5 years of Luke Weaver, six years of Carson Kelly, and a AAA minor leaguer in Andy Young. Weaver is the most MLB ready of the three, and he’s expected to slide right into the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Kelly and Young could also make an impact in 2019.

Luke Weaver was excellent for the Cardinals in 2017, but took a step back in 2018. Even in a down year, he was still worth 1.3 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR that uses FIP not ERA as a measure of value.) Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR in 2019. At only 25, Weaver is still looking ahead to his prime. If he’s a 2 WAR pitcher for even just three out of the next five seasons, this trade already looks like a win for the Diamondbacks.

The best thing about Weaver is he’s cheap, making the league minimum for 2019 and 2020, plus three more years of arbitration-eligible seasons. He’s easily the gem of the deal and really just has to stay healthy and be a roughly league-average starter.

Carson Kelly hasn’t been exciting in the major leagues so far as the heir apparent to Yadier Molina with the Cardinals. However, his minor league numbers and plus defense suggest he should be able to help the Diamondbacks in some capacity in 2019. Steamer projects him for 0.8 WAR with a .242/.316/.370 batting line and +4.8 runs on defense in only 53 games. He’s had very poor luck on batted balls in play so far in his MLB career, so that projection could easily be correct. Over the course of a full season, he could easily be a roughly league-average backstop. He’ll back up Alex Avila for now.

Already, the Diamondbacks seem to have “won” this trade. But that’s before we also consider Andy Young, the former 37th round pick. In many ways, Young is a lot like a guy that the Diamondbacks just let go in Chris Owings. Like Owings, Young plays second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield. Steamer projects Young for a 12 game cup of coffee in 2019, hitting .253.307.408 with adequate defense for 0.1 WAR. Project that over a full season, and you have something like a 1.1 WAR player who can cover the whole infield and the outfield corners. They also control Young for six seasons.

It’s hard to fault the Cardinals for making this move, though. This was going to be the cheapest way for them to anchor their lineup. The Cardinals probably won’t miss any of those three players. Also, because they traded for Goldschmidt before the season started, the Cardinals can still extend a qualifying offer to him after the season. If he rejects it - a one-year offer in the range of $18 million or so - the Cardinals can recoup a draft pick. The Diamondbacks were happy to get a good pick already - not much worse than what they would’ve gotten out of a Goldschmidt qualifying offer being rejected.

Also, while this was probably not in the Diamondbacks’ line of thinking - what if this is the year that Goldy begins to decline? His value is never going to be higher than it is now. Both sides did what they needed to do. The funny thing is, the Diamondbacks may not even be that much worse this year.

0 Comments

Chris Owings Signs with Kansas City Royals

12/7/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
In their quest to rebuild without actually rebuilding, the Kansas City Royals made a decent shrewd free agent signing of a utility player named Chris Owings. Formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Owings has played second base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions in his career. He had a dreadful 2018 with the bat, so he’ll be looking to get back to at least his career averages.

The Royals are only guaranteeing Owings $3 million, plus $500,000 in incentives. The plus with Owings is his positional versatility. While Whit Merrifield holds down second base and Adalberto Mondesi holds down shortstop for the Royals, Owings is a plus in the outfield. In 2018, he was worth +10 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, with 5 DRS in right field in only 314 innings, 4 DRS in center with only 109 innings (!), and 1 DRS in 26 left field innings. He’s definitely a plus in the outfield.

There’s also a chance Owings plays some third base - not a position he’s played much in the major leagues - although he can handle it. Hunter Dozier is the Royals’ best third base option, and he’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. The Royals have four decent outfielders: Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, and Jorge Soler. So, it seems third base is his most clear route to playing time.

Steamer projects Owings for a .252/.300/.378 batting line, 10 stolen bases, essentially neutral defense, and 0.4 WAR. These are basically in line with his career averages, although he could be more of a plus on defense - especially if he plays mostly in the outfield. 2018 was not kind to his usually solid second base defense and his typical below average play at shortstop. The Royals paid the market rate for Owings if he matches his projection - which is hardly a bad thing.

Of course, being a rebuilding team - or a team that should be rebuilding - Owings is a fine fit. Of course, there’s ongoing speculation that Whit Merrifield will be traded at some point. Merrifield is still making the league minimum in 2019, followed by three years of arbitration, making him one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. So, Owings can hold down second base in that case - although he is a massive downgrade - if the Royals decide to go in that direction.

Royals fans should hope that they are going the route of the Twins and Tigers in picking up players on buy-low contracts to hopefully catch lightning in a bottle. Owings doesn’t strike me as the trade chip type, although he could have value to a competitive team needing a glove-first guy with some speed off of the bench. In any case, it’s a respectable move.

0 Comments

Jonathan Schoop Signs with the Minnesota Twins

12/6/2018

0 Comments

 
by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
Picture
The Minnesota Twins decided it was worth taking a one-year gamble on second baseman Jonathan Schoop. The pact is for the 2019 season at $7.5 million guaranteed with potential incentives. This is a significant pay-cut from the $8.5 million Schoop received in arbitration in the 2018 season. This was his last season of eligibility for arbitration and he was expected to earn about $10 million before becoming a free agent.

After a 32 home run 3.8 WAR career year in 2017 with the Orioles, he stumbled badly in 2018. He was traded to Milwaukee, where the Brewers hoped to give him a chance of scenery. He struggled even more badly and was non-tendered by the club, since they had no intention of paying him the $10 million he likely was going to receive in an arbitration hearing.

You may wonder how someone that hit only .233/.266/.416 could get that much money. He did still hit 21 homers and drive in 61 runs. Home runs are not an unknown for Schoop, who hit 16 in 2014, 15 in 2015, and 25 in 2016. While he’s not a Gold Glove second baseman, he also doesn’t hurt you. He had 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2014, 2 DRS in 2017, and 3 DRS in 2018. He was only slightly below average in 2015 and 2016. The glove isn’t a problem.

So, Schoop has power and he has a decent glove at the keystone position. These are two-thirds of what Schoop needs to really get paid in free agency. There were certainly other teams in on Schoop, but after losing their stalwart second baseman Brian Dozier to free agency, the Twins are in the position to be able to take a risk. Since he is extremely unlikely to suddenly fall apart in the field and he’s pretty much a lock for 20 HR, there isn’t really much to worry about if he finds himself.

The projection for 2019 by Steamer is .256/.298/.450 with 22 HR and 68 RBI and 1.6 WAR in 122 games. That’s very similar to Schoop’s 2016. At $7.5 million, Schoop is actually a bargain with those numbers, even if his salary is increased by some incentives. If he plays closer to 150 games, he’s pretty much a 2-win player, which is worth something like $15 million a year on the open market.

The Twins are actually making an intelligent move here. They are pretty much paying him to be a stopgap second baseman who could produce as little as 1 WAR in 2019 and be worth his contract. Of course, he was worth a mere 0.5 WAR between the O’s and Brewers in 2018, but it’s unlikely he falls flat on his face again. He was a bit unlucky on balls in play - .261 batting average on balls in play VS a .296 career mark.

Sure, Schoop doesn’t walk, but his power alone is pretty much enough to make him a league average hitter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when you consider he’s steady with the glove. It’s a bit concerning that StatCast saw his expected batting average was only .227 and his expected wOBA only .266, when his true numbers were .233 and .290. Of course, that just means that his batted ball profile was terrible. Anyone who saw him play much at all last year could tell he was just not himself.

It won’t take much for Schoop to return to form. This is a guy who can be a steady league-average second baseman, and if he catches fire like he did in 2017, he could be an occasional All-Star, too. The Twins are hoping that he does just that, and since they don’t plan to contend, be a useful trade chip. If he falls flat, he’s not blocking anyone in the farm system. He does displace Ehire Adrianza - who isn’t much more of a hitter than Schoop was last year - but Schoop has far more upside with his power.

The Twins suddenly have a ton of infielders, especially with Ronald Torreyes joining the fold, as well if he makes the major league roster. But, Schoop is worth the gamble, and the Twins are in the position where if they lose the roll of the dice, it will hardly kill them. Even then, Schoop’s upside is such that they still may get some value for him. It’s a hard move not to like.

0 Comments
<<Previous

    RSS Feed

    Picture

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    ALL STAFF

    Lyn Lomasi Rowell
    Richard Rowell
    Laurie Childree
    Stephanie Laursen-Nolan

    OWNERS

    Picture
    Lyn Lomasi & Richard Rowell  are life & business partners. Owners of the Brand Shamans network, we are your brand healing, soul healing, marketing & content superheroes to the rescue!

    Running our network of websites, tackling deadlines single-handedly, and coaching fellow writers, brands, & entrepreneurs to be thought leaders is our top priority.

    While rescuing civilians from boring content and brands, we conquer the world, living the RV life and managing our Intent-sive Nature with our awesomely crazy family while taking our kids on Upstream Parenting adventures & lessons.

    We also strive to one day cuddle with lions and giraffes. Until then, we’ll settle for furry rescue kitties and doggies.

    We support many causes via our business ventures, such as homelessness, support for trans youth, equality, helping starving artists, and more! A portion of all proceeds from Intent-sive Nature goes toward helping homeless pets in local shelters.

    Categories

    All
    2014 MLB Playoffs
    2018 MLB Playoffs
    2019 MLB Sleepers
    Abdullah
    Arizona Diamondbacks
    Athlete Profiles
    Atlanta Braves
    Baltimore Orioles
    Baseball
    Baseball America
    Baseball Cards
    Baseball Hall Of Fame
    Baseball Mogul 2016
    Baseball News
    Baseball Player Biographies
    Baseball Player Bios
    Basketball
    Basketball Cards
    Blue Jays
    Boston
    Boston Red Sox
    Boxing
    Card Collecting
    Chicago Cubs
    Chicago White Sox
    Cincinnati Reds
    Clay Buchholz
    Cleveland Indians
    Colorado Rockies
    Console Baseball Games
    Daniel Murphy
    Detroit Tigers
    Fantasy Baseball
    Florida Marlins
    Football
    Football Card Investment
    Football Cards
    Football Pool
    Football Squares
    Free Printables
    Golf
    Hockey
    Houston Astros
    Houston Colts
    Husain Abdullah
    John Lackey
    Junk Wax Dynasty
    Kansas City
    Kansas City Royals
    KC
    KC Royals
    Listia
    Los Angeles Angels
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    Lyn Lomasi
    Major League Baseball
    Miami Marlins
    Milwaukee Brewers
    Minnesota Twins
    MLB
    MLB 2019 Preview
    MLB Baseball
    MLB Hot Stove
    MLB Player Bios
    MLB Players
    MLB The Show
    NASCAR
    NBA
    NCAA
    New York Mets
    New York Yankees
    NFL
    NHL
    Oakland Athletics
    Office Pool
    Office Squares
    PC Baseball Games
    Pedro Martinez
    Penalties
    Philadelphia Phillies
    Pittsburgh Pirates
    Playoffs
    Playstation Baseball Games
    Portland Sea Dogs
    Prayer
    Prayer In Sports
    Racing
    Red Sox
    Red Sox Cards
    Rookie Card Review
    Rookie Cards
    San Diego Padres
    San Francisco Giants
    Seattle Mariners
    Sports
    Sports Card Market
    Sports Cards
    Sports Collectibles
    Sports Films
    Sports Games
    Sports Simulation
    St Louis Cardinals
    St. Louis Cardinals
    Superbowl
    Super Bowl
    Super Bowl Squares
    Superbowl Squares
    Tampa Bay Rays
    Texas Rangers
    Topps Heritage
    Topps Update
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Vintage Baseball Cards
    Xander Bogaerts
    Yahoo Fantasy Sports

    Archives

    June 2020
    April 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    July 2018
    May 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    October 2017
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    January 2016
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    April 2014
    January 2014
    November 2013
    October 2013

COMPANY & SUPPORT

About Us & Contact
Brand Healing Journal
Become an Affiliate!
Disclosure, TOU, Disclaimer, & Privacy Policy
Write For Our Sites!

ALL SITES

Brand Shamans
Life Successfully
Intent-sive Nature
Write W.A.V.E. Media
Pawsitive Parenting

Guest Post Writers

Daily Cashouts
GoSteady.me
Poverty And Homelessness
Article Writer For Hire
Lyn Lomasi
Heart 'N Mind Homeschool    
Pre-K Yoga
Kids Chakra

Legit Cash Now
Souls Within
Better Plumbing (Partner Site)
Heart 'N Mind Paw Rescue
© 2005-2020 Life... Successfully by  Brand Shamans
Photos used under Creative Commons from slgckgc, Keith Allison, Keith Allison, slgckgc, Gerry Dincher