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Why I Believe Mark McGwire Belongs in the Hall of Fame

9/6/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Lifelong Baseball Fan
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A recent conversation with my buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. So, naturally, I needed to get down my thoughts about the “big boys” in McGwire, Sosa, and of course, Barry Bonds.

The opinions I have on these players may not be the most popular. However, for sports card hobby fans, you may actually like my opinions on Mark McGwire, and why - like Roger Clemens - he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame anyway.

Warning, lots and lots and lots of “advanced,” “dopey,” “geeky” statistics to follow… :D


Mark McGwire Set HR Records Early On!

Mark McGwire was a star with the bat very early on, starring in college for USC and hitting 53 home runs in his three years there. Thirty-one of those homers came in his junior year in only 65 games. He also hit .388. Unsurprisingly, those 31 HR broke the USC single-season record set just the season before of 19 by, hey, Mark McGwire!  

After being drafted 10th overall by the Oakland A’s and starring the 1984 Olympics, “Big Mac” would be underwhelming in his first minor league action. McGwire quickly made adjustments, of course, and promptly began crushing the minor leagues starting in 1985. After a strong showing at A, McGwire took AA and AAA by storm in 1986, resulting in a cup of coffee in late 1986. It wasn’t an exciting beginning to his career, but he did hit his first 3 of his 583 homers he’d eventually hit in his career.


Mark McGwire’s Massive Rookie of the Year Campaign

Obviously, McGwire blew away the competition for Rookie of the Year. But, beyond the baseball card stats, McGwire’s rookie season was particularly exceptional because of his ISO (Isolated Power) mark. ISO is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to get an idea of that player’s true raw power display. With that .329 ISO mark, McGwire was truly dominating with the bat.

While McGwire would have a few more big seasons with the bat early on, it took awhile for “Big Mac” to replicate that raw power. Part of that is playing at the Oakland Coliseum, known as a park not all that friendly to home run hitters. It seemed over the next few years that McGwire was going to develop into a “true three outcomes” type of hitter: meaning whenever he stepped to the plate, you’d expect a walk, strikeout, or home run. Of course, that wasn’t a problem as long as he was producing, even when the batting averages began to dip.

That is, until 1991.


What Happened to McGwire in 1991?

The back of the baseball card tells part of the story: .201 batting average, only 22 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, the A’s weren’t too great in 1991, either. But, it was Big Mac’s first below average season. To save the humiliation of potentially having his average dip below .200, manager Tony LaRussa actually sat him for the last game of the season. Fortunately for McGwire, that poor batting average was in part because of a .214 BABIP, which obviously is extremely low. Mac’s strikeout rate didn’t rise all that much and his walk rate was still stable. 

There were some other easy explanations for that dramatic drop in production. McGwire was having marriage problems that would inevitably end in divorce. He said he didn’t “lift a weight” all season, so conditioning was certainly a problem. But, McGwire also received vision therapy, something that would improve his already above-average plate discipline even more so in the second half of his career.


McGwire’s Bounceback Season of 1992

In 1992, the world pretty much forgot about his awful 1991 because he came back in a big way with a .268 batting average, 42 HR and 104 RBI. That performance was backed up by a .385 on base percentage and .585 slugging percentage, good for a 176 OPS+. Keep in mind that OPS+ is park-adjusted, and he played half his games in Oakland. That meant his performance was 76 percent better than league average. That’s pretty incredible. Most notably his ISO was back up to .317, his highest mark since his rookie year. 

He would start to build on that rebound, too, until something happened in 1993 that likely changed the course of his career - for better or for worse.


The “Lost” Seasons of 1993 and 1994 for McGwire & the 1995 & 1996 Monster Years

The 1993 season got off to a fantastic start for McGwire who hit .333/.467/.726 in his first 27 games before foot injuries essentially ended his season. He’d try to come back in 1994, and hit “only” .252/.413/.474 in 47 games, still struggling to stay on the field. It was also during this time that McGwire started using more steroids. He’d started using them in the 1989-90 offseason, but started using them more so to recover from injuries. At least, that’s what McGwire claimed.

Something definitely happened, though, because when McGwire got back into playing full time in 1995, he hit a massive .274/.441/.685 (good for a 200 OPS+!) with 39 HR and a huge .410 ISO. In just 104 games, McGwire was worth 5.5 WAR. Then, in 1996, McGwire launched 52 HR with a crazy .312/.467/.730 batting line (196 OPS+) and a .419 ISO. In 130 games, McGwire was worth 6.4 WAR. Trouble was, both of those A’s teams were terrible. Also, McGwire’s contract was up after the 1997 season. So, what would the A’s do?


The Mark McGwire Trade and the St. Louis Years

In 1997, McGwire wasn’t slowing down. He hit .284/.383/.628 with 34 HR in 105 games. It wasn’t quite the same crazy isolated power... not yet. The A’s, needing desperately to inject some fresh blood into the team, decided to trade their superstar slugger to the St. Louis Cardinals for three pitchers. Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein never amounted to much, although T.J. Mathews pitched some decent innings. Of course, in retrospect, it was a very underwhelming trade.

McGwire went on to hit 24 more HR with a .253/.411/.684 batting line - and an isolated power of .431. I don’t think I have to say much about how ridiculous that is, but consider that old Busch Stadium was a lot friendlier to hit at than the Oakland Coliseum. In fact, in 280 career games at Old Busch Stadium, McGwire hit .286.450.726 with 119 HR. That’s compared to .252/.380/.535 with 166 HR in 654 games! Such is the difference a ballpark can make.

Of course, Busch Stadium helped, but in 1998, McGwire would take it all to a brand new level. While the A’s hoped that McGwire would return to Southern California, and hopefully the A’s, McGwire approved of his new Missouri digs and re-upped with the Cardinals. It would be a good decision.


The Record Year: McGwire Beats Maris, Sosa, and the World (‘til Bonds, of course)

Of course, from McGwire’s own admissions in 2010 of having used steroids, 1998 was the key year that he used performance enhancing drugs. At this point, St. Louis had suffered through some mediocre years and baseball was still reeling from the player’s strike just three years before. The 1998 Cardinals wouldn’t be a world beating team, but they would be a winning one. It’s fair to say a lot of it had to do with their first baseman.

It also didn’t hurt that the 1998 Cardinals were actually a decent hitting team, with Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan having fine seasons, along with Delino DeShields and a young third baseman named Fernando Tatis. (Yes, the dad of Tatis Jr.) Unfortunately, a young Matt Morris and still effective Todd Stottlemyre couldn’t save a mediocre pitching staff.

In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa got into one of the craziest home run races in recent memory. It would end up becoming historic. Ken Griffey Jr. was in the hunt for awhile, but he’d match his 1997 total of 56 in th end. It would be Mark McGwire that would break Roger Maris’ single-season record of 61, hitting his 62nd home run of 1998 against - most appropriately - Sosa and the Cubs. Of course, the Cubs and Cardinals being such major rivals made the home run race all that much more exciting. Sosa would finish with 66 HR. McGwire would finish with 70 HR.

Not only did McGwire finish with more home runs, setting the single-season record that would stand until Barry Bonds would eventually break it himself. McGwire just had a monster season overall, with a massive .299/.470/.752 batting line good for a ridiculous 216 OPS+. By contrast, Sosa would manage just a 160 OPS+.

Of course, it didn’t end there.


McGwire’s Final Years

1999 would be a step back for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they would go on to post a losing record. However, it was at no fault of McGwire, who would hit .278/.424/.697 for a 176 OPS+ with 65 HR. It would also be the year he’d hit his 500th HR, seemingly cementing his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

By 2000, though, as the Cardinals were getting better, McGwire’s body was breaking down. Incredibly, in 2000, McGwire still hit .305/.483/.746 with 32 HR  in only 89 games. He’d also hit a big home run in the playoffs. The 2001 Cardinals would be extremely good, but unfortunately, it was also the end of the road for the 37 year old slugger. He’d hit just .187/.316/.492, although he’d add 29 HR to his final career total and still manage a league-average-ish OPS of 105+. Even at the very end, Big Mac was still all about the home run.

Of course, it’s pretty obvious now that McGwire had some help. Yes, the ballpark move helped. But, that’s a crazy power spike to come seemingly out of nowhere.

Yeah, we know now, there was a reason for it. But, was it all the steroids?


So, Would McGwire Have Hit 70 HR Without Steroids?

McGwire maintains that he only used steroids to recover from injuries, for health reasons, not just to bulk up. While there’s likely some truth to that, there’s absolutely no doubt that McGwire realized the benefits to using steroids for bulking up. So, of course, there needs to be some asterisks put on those massive numbers. But, as we learned later from Jose Canseco, the number of players using steroids was so many… so, did it really lead to an unfair playing field?

Many people are hardliners on the use of performance-enhancing drugs like steroids. I certainly was a hardliner at one point. But as the years have gone on, I now feel that there is perhaps a chance to give at least one of those steroid-era sluggers a chance. I’ll look at other cases such as Raffy Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds later. But, I really feel like McGwire should still get a plaque in Cooperstown.

I feel that Oakland Coliseum probably stole a few home runs here and there from McGwire. Since home runs have such a massive impact on slugging percentage (as they count as four total bases, which is how slugging percentage is figured), losing just a handful here and there makes a big difference in overall batting lines. Here’s the thing. If steroids actually added about 100 points to McGwire’s slugging percentage, would McGwire still have been a Hall of Famer? 

McGwire’s career OPS+ is 163.  If we were to regress his slugging percentages even 100 points in those monster seasons, it’s likely that the total decreases significantly. But even if you subtract 20% of his home runs 1998 forward, you still have a Hall of Famer. The point is that steroids may have helped, but…


Did McGwire Just Become a Better Hitter?

Mcgwire claims that he didn't need the steroids to hit more home runs. He says that his vision therapy, close study of pitchers, and shortening his swing is what led to the home run rampage. Are these difficult to quantify improvements enough to relax the impact of steroids and brute strength alone?  

It has been proven time and time again if you are looking to hit home runs, and you have the raw ability to do so, you will hit more of them. Usually, however, there is a trade-off. Not with McGwire. Of course, steroids do not improve your plate vision. Hitting home runs, however, can indirectly improve your walk rate. That's because naturally pitchers are going to pitch around you more.

Yes, McGwire did have intentional walks. But not as many as you may think. He had 28 in 1998, which didn't even lead the league. He had 21 in 1999, which led the National League. But in 2000, he only had 12. Yes, he played only about half a season, but that’s still not a lot. 

The point of this boring story, as Chris Bodig at Cooperstown Cred likes to say, is that those walks were more a function of those Cardinals teams not really being that great. He was by far the best hitter on the team. Even if he were early career Mcgwire, those intentional walks still would've happened I would argue. Sure, he got quite a few intentional walks but not an absurd amount of them.


The Launch Angle

So, yes, I believe that a good amount of Mcgwire’s home run hitting was skill. Also keep in mind that the great hitters of the era such as Mcgwire, Sosa, and Bonds all to some.extent figured out the launch angle. Griffey Jr was a natural at it. He had such quick bat speed that if he hit the ball at a decent angle, it was usually gone. Probably the best example of the perfect EV plus LA swing was Hank Aaron's natural stroke.

I've speculated for years why the “Bash Brothers” McGwire and Canseco started juicing in the 1989-1990 offseason as Canseco claimed in his book and McGwire later admitted. Of course, Canseco always claimed it was to beef up and hit home runs. Mcgwire said it was for recovery purposes. I think in fact they are both correct. After all, Mcgwire did struggle with a couple of essentially lost seasons. But, I think that the timing of the juicing is awfully coincidental.

Keep in mind that 1989 was the year that “The Kid” Ken Griffey Jr was unleashed on baseball. Also, keep in mind how pretty much everyone in baseball saw him smashing all the records. A lot of other players, especially the sluggers, saw what this kid could do. I wouldn't say it was out of jealousy. Griffey Jr. wasn’t truly exceptional until 1990. But, I'm sure there were many sluggers in the game that wanted to emulate what Griffey could do to a baseball. Who wouldn't?

As we know today, the key to hitting home runs is "barrelling" the ball by finding the sweet spot between batted ball exit velocity and launch angle. Steroids were some sluggers way to bulk up to get that extra oomph behind the ball. But even back then, it was clear that the long ball became more of a priority after Griffey arrived on the scene. 

Looking back now, there was swing tweaking for sure and sluggers started working out and building muscle harder than ever. Remember,steroids are not magic pills. you still have to put in the work and you still have to be very talented with your sport. All they do is give you a bit of an edge.

 In fact, had Mcgwire and canseco not spent so many years in Oakland, their home run numbers would undoubtedly have been significantly higher. Griffey Jr could hit a ball out of anywhere on pure.talent alone. So yes, I am insinuating that there was some compensation going on to keep up with one of the greatest raw talents baseball has ever seen. I'm sure there was talk behind closed doors. 

Baseball is entertainment. Home runs are entertaining. If the whistle had never been blown by Canseco, we may never have known better.


So Why Should McGwire Be in the Hall of Fame?

McGwire’s feats probably saved baseball. Yes, steroids were bad for the game. It allowed a few guys to post video game numbers. But did the home run race destroy competitive balance? Absolutely not. The best team in 1998 was a New York Yankees team that win with pitching and a lineup that was more interested in working counts and taking bases rather than hitting lots of home runs. 

(The elephant in the room here of course is Roger Clemens, who allegedly used steroids to extend his career. I will certainly get to the Rocket in a future article!)

The Cardinals were not a good team. The Cubs were good, and won 90 games, but having someone hit 65 home runs does not win you playoff games. Are steroids cheating? Yes. Do they destroy the competition? Looking at the teams who inevitably made the playoffs and made deep runs. I'd say most certainly not. 

Also, I'm sure the list of steroids users is much longer than we know. I'm sure Canseco was right and the majority.of the game was probably juicing. In that case it's hardly unfair… The real issue, then, is how do these juiced numbers affect the record books, and just how sacred all those numbers?

We may never know.


Did Steroids Extend McGwire’s Career?

So, for me, the real argument against McGwire being in the Hall of Fame is this: did steroids extend his career? Without the steroids, would have McGwire's career instead petered out in Oakland? I'll spoil my Clemens article a bit by saying this, but I will say they likely helped a bit. But, we will just never know. Clemens certainly reinvented himself a bit as a pitcher in the second half of his career, and McGwire certainly showed great maturity as a hitter after the personal distractions and lost seasons.

I believe that with McGwire having opened up about his steroid use, and still being one of the most popular players of all time, I think Big Mac should get a chance to be in the Hall of Fame. If you choose just one of he, Bonds, and Sosa, to eventually get in, it seems the easy choice is Big Mac. I’m sure a lot of fans will agree. 

Is that to say I don't think that Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, and other exposed steroid users should get in? Each of those players deserves their own in depth look. As for McGwire, it may take awhile. Still, for the sake of representing history, McGwire should be inducted, even if his records are forever tainted. He was fun to watch and made coming to the ballpark and watching his teams play a joy. After all, isn't that what baseball about?

Also, watching Pedro Martinez strike McGwire out at the 1999 All Star Game. That, too.


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1973 Topps Luis Aparicio - Cards Your Mom Threw Out!

4/29/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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In 2010, Topps created a series of cards called “Cards Your Mom Threw Out” featuring vintage Topps cards with either a new “CMT” back or the original back. These are actually fairly sought after cards by collectors, especially those with the original backs. For me, as a Red Sox fan, the Luis Aparicio CMT-138 is one that’s a nice card to have, as 1973 was not only the last hurrah for “Looie,” but also a pretty good season overall.

Aparicio came to Boston before the 1971 season for second baseman Mike Andrews and infielder Luis Alvarado. Andrews had some nice years for Boston, and would have one more good year in 1971 before fading away. Alvarado never did much of anything. 1971 was a down year for Aparicio and was actually worse than replacement level according to Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (-0.5 WAR). He’d rebound in 1972 to be a league average shortstop (2.0 WAR). But 1973 was a nice final season for the future Hall of Fame shortstop.

In 1973, Aparicio hit only  .271/.324/.309 with the bat, which wasn’t too good, but he did walk more than he struck out and added 13 stolen bases. He was only caught once, too. During the season he passed the 500 SB milestone to finish with 506 steals. Besides his value on the base paths, Aparicio was worth a whopping 11 runs above average according to TotalZone. That was after being “worth” -8 runs in 1971 and -4 runs in 1972. In his career, Aparicio would be worth 149 runs above average over 18 seasons. He won nine Gold Gloves in his career as an elite defender.

Luis Aparicio’s original 1973 Topps card is hardly a pricey one. You can find one graded PSA 8 for under $10 and one in PSA 9 for around $20 to $25. There are only 8 PSA 10 1973 Topps Aparicio cards, and those can fetch several hundred dollars. Aparicio would also have a 1974 Topps card.that are actually similarly priced, with only 4 PSA 10 copies currently graded. Luis Aparicio’s later cards with the Red Sox aren’t super expensive, but since he’s a Hall of Famer who made a living with his speed and glove, he’s worth adding to any vintage baseball card collection.
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Most Valuable Red Sox Baseball Cards: George Kell

2/18/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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Most people think of Baseball Hall-of-Fame third baseman George Kell as a Detroit Tiger. That’s not surprising, as he played in parts of eight seasons with the Tigers and was a Tigers broadcaster for thirty-seven years. But, he started out with the Philadelphia A’s, and the Tigers actually traded Kell to the Boston Red Sox in 1952!

George Kell was part of a nine-player trade that involved Red Sox legend Johnny Pesky going to Detroit. After the trade, Kell hit .319/.390/.453 for the Sox in 75 games. In 1953, Kell would hit 307.383.483 and enjoy a 3 WAR season.

Unfortunately, 1953 would see Kell hit only .258/.361/.290 in 26 games for the Sox. He’d be traded to the White Sox for infielder Grady Hatton and $100,000. Hatton would finish out 1954 well with the Red Sox. Kell would have one more good season with the White Sox in 1955.


There are actually a fair amount of George Kell baseball cards out there depicting the Hall of Fame ballplayer on the Red Sox. The most valuable are graded examples of 1953 Topps #138 and 1954 Bowman #50.

George Kell’s 1953 Topps card is valued around $300 for PSA 8 (Near Mint POP 76) examples, over $600 for PSA 8.5 (Near-Mint+ POP 5), and $1,750 for PSA 9 (Mint POP 8)!

Kell's 1954 Bowman is much more affordable at around $80 for a PSA 8 (POP 84 + 7 with an Off-Center Qualifier), $115 for a PSA 8.5 (POP 3) and $475 for a PSA 9 (POP 9)! There are about the same amount of PSA 8 and PSA 8.5 of each of these cards in existence, but they are still fairly rare.


While George Kell’s legacy is as a Detroit Tiger, his short, fairly productive time with the Boston Red Sox makes his key cards quite valuable to any serious Red Sox baseball card collector.

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Baseball Cards - 1994 Collector's Choice #131 Rickey Henderson

10/27/2017

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Rickey Henderson was a heck of a baseball player. He played for a million years for a million different teams. I’ve always been a fan of his play, and as he’s a Baseball Hall of Famer, I’ll collect Rickey Henderson cards. Even though this may only be a base card, this 1994 Collector’s Choice card was well worth picking up on Listia.

In 1993, Henderson played for both the Oakland A’s and the Blue Jays. He was traded by the A’s to the Jays for pitcher Steve Karsay and a player to be named later. Henderson was awful for the Jays, and after becoming a free agent returned to Oakland. So, this card shows him during his short and not so productive stint with the Jays. The upside is that he won a World Series ring with Toronto. Fortunately for Rickey, he’d go on to play until 2003 and was fairly productive for a few more seasons.

While this Upper Deck base card isn’t really close to a hallmark card for Rickey, it’s a card that I’m not sure that I have. Even if I did, the price I paid in Listia credits was very low, and you can’t ever go wrong with Hall of Famers.

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1990 Leaf Frank Thomas #300 Rookie Card -  Baseball Cards from 1990 Worth Money

10/23/2017

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Being a popular Baseball Hall of Fame player, Frank Thomas rookie cards have become quite popular. There's the 1990 Topps Frank Thomas No Name error baseball card that's been known to sell for quite a bit. But the Topps #1 Draft Pick card is not the most valuable Frank Thomas rookie card. There's the 1990 Leaf #300 Frank Thomas RC. Not only is it a nice looking card, but you can put some money in the bank if you happen to pay Beckett Media or PSA to grade it!

One BGS 10 (Pristine) Leaf Frank Thomas Rookie Card snatched $706 in August of 2017. As one of the more popular Hall of Famers in recent years, it's not surprising that this card fetched a high price. But, it's not a price that you'd expect for a 1990 baseball card that is simply a base card! But, the pose is great and the overall card design is clean and simple. It's very attractive to collectors.

That auction just shows how highly sought after 10's are from collected. Another 9.5 also graded by Beckett only fetched about $110 by PWCC auctions on eBay. It was still well worth getting the card graded. That's no number to sneeze at, but it's no $700! Likewise, a PSA 10 of the same card fetched only $77 by PWCC. In 2018,  $70 to $80 was the going price for PSA 10 copies of this card, with plenty of eBay sales at that price point.

But in late 2018 and early 2019, PSA 10 Frank Thomas rookie cards started eclipsing the $100 mark in auctions on a regular basis. Considering there are a ton of PSA 10 copies out there (3035 PSA 10 examples as of 2/9/2019), that's quite a jump in price. Of course, his demand makes sense, as he hit over 500 home runs and hit over a .300 batting average in his career (.301) - both milestones that card collectors appreciate.

In PSA 9 graded condition, however, there are over 9200 (!) PSA 9 copies out there. Because of the sheer volume available on the market you're lucky to get $25 for a PSA 9 copy. At about $10 to $20 a card, depending on how many cards you submit at once, grading isn't cheap. But, grading IS worth it for this particular 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas card if you can get it in a PSA 10. Due to essentially breaking even (or worse) on getting a PSA 9 back instead of a PSA 10, collectors are willing to pay a substantial premium for an already slabbed PSA 10 example.

So, what if you don't want to put the time and money into grading? Well, the great news is you can find this card raw under $5 in mint condition! Even better, you can find the entire 1990 Leaf set for $20 or less. The  set also has a Sammy Sosa rookie card that collectors are still buying today. If you do decide to grade the 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas, since there's a discount on grading more cards at once, there are other cards to consider submitting:

  • #12 Roger Clemens
  • #21 Nolan Ryan (HOF)
  • #25 Greg Maddux (HOF)
  • #63 Mark McGwire
  • #91 Barry Bonds
  • #98 Ryne Sandburg (HOF)
  • #125 Bo Jackson
  • #154 Tony Gwynn (HOF)
  • #160 Rickey Henderson (HOF)
  • #178 George Brett (HOF)
  • #180 Joey (Albert) Belle RC
  • #197 Cal Ripken Jr. (HOF)
  • #237 John Olerud RC
  • #245 Ken Griffey Jr.
  • #265 Nolan Ryan (No Hit King) HOF
  • #297 David Justice RC

Many of these cards can fetch $10 or more as graded PSA 10 examples. There are a few other Hall of Famers in the set, such as Eddie Murray, as well.

Frank Thomas continues to be a beloved, charismatic former ballplayer long after his Hall of Fame induction in 2014. While you may not be able to build a retirement fund around his most popular rookie card, it definitely is looking like a strong investment in any baseball card collection. So, thanks, Frank Thomas, for making the 1990 Leaf baseball set worth collecting!

Updated 2/9/2019

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Gaylord Perry - MLB Baseball Player Bio

10/22/2014

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Gaylord Perry is one of the most well-traveled Hall of Fame pitchers of all time. Of course, he spent most of his illustrious career with the San Francisco Giants (1962-1971), but also played for the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees (for only 10 appearances), Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, and the Kansas City Royals. He won over 300 games in his career with a career 3.11 ERA. Gaylord compiled 93.7 WAR in his 22 seasons, more WAR than Steve Carlton or Bob Gibson.

Perry didn't strike out a ton of guys (5.9 K/9), but didn't walk many guys, either (2.3 BB/9). He just knew how to keep hitters off balance and how to pitch complete games (303 of his 690 career starts were complete games.) He pitched over 300 innings in a season six times in his career. His durability and consistency were extraordinary and he continued to be an effective pitcher even after turning 40. He will be best remembered as a Giant (37 WAR), but he was actually even better as an Indian (29 WAR in half of the innings pitched).

Thanks for an amazing career, Gaylord Perry.

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons user Ghetto9678


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Greg Maddux - MLB Baseball Player Bio

10/22/2014

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Not much more can be said about legendary pitcher Greg Maddux, who was a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame in 2014, which was his first season of eligibility. To say he is a paragon of pitching excellence would be an understatement, and his career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total of 106.8 ranks 25th on Baseball-Reference surrounded by guys like Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and Lefty Grove.

However, Maddux didn't dominate by striking guys out. He wasn't an extreme ground-ball pitcher, either. He simply didn't walk guys and induced weak contact by keeping hitters off balance. No one has been better in the game at doing that since Maddux, and anyone would be hard-pressed to repeat his long trend of excellence.

He started out fairly well with the Cubs, but it was after signing for some big money with the Atlanta Braves in 1993 that his best years began. From 1993-2003, he amassed 66 WAR, for an average of 6 WAR per season. That is a pretty ridiculous peak, and that's not even including his 9.2 WAR year with the Cubs in 1992. Even after leaving Atlanta in 2004 and returning to the Cubs, Maddux was still an above-average pitcher in 2004 and 2005. He would only have one more truly good season, 2008 with the Padres (2.6 WAR), but that was mostly due to arm fatigue from pitching all of those thousands of innings over such a long period of time.

It should also be noted that Maddux had quite a postseason career, as well, due to all those years with those many Braves playoff runs. While he wasn't the most dominating pitcher, he had a career 3.27 postseason ERA in 198 innings, but an 11-14 record due to an incredible lack of run support.

Greg Maddux is one of the greatest pitchers that has ever played the game of baseball. I was lucky to see many of his starts on TBS in my youth and will never forget the impeccable command he had with his pitches and his amazing ability to read hitters and keep them off balance. He definitely deserved his Hall-of-Fame induction in Cooperstown!

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons


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Barry Larkin: Hall of Fame Shortstop

10/20/2014

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Joining Ron Santo in the 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame class, Barry Larkin is enshrined forever in Cooperstown after a nineteen-year career that spanned from 1986-2004. During that time, he helped the Reds win the 1990 World Series, became the first ever shortstop to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season, and played his entire career in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. As a hitter, he regularly walked more than he struck out, and in the field was a capable shortstop.

Statistically, as far as shortstops go, he stacks up pretty well against his Hall-of-Fame counterparts, with a career line of .295/.371/.444 for an above average OPS of .815 of in over 9000 plate appearances. He did not reach any of the major milestones that many Hall of Famers have, such as 3000 hits, but he did hit 198 home runs (an excellent number for a shortstop) and racked up 379 stolen bases. It's also likely that if he had not missed significant parts of several seasons that his numbers would have finished considerably closer to many of his now peers in the Hall of Fame such as Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith.

Larkin Compared to His Hall of Fame Peers  

While Larkin's traditional counting statistic totals of hits, home runs, RBI and stolen bases aren't nearly as “sexy” as those of his Hall of Fame peers, especially those of Ernie Banks and Cal Ripken Jr. (although Cal played third for the last quarter of his career). Larkin’s numbers are certainly very respectable and notable for any ballplayer, especially one who played nearly two decades of Major League Baseball. Interestingly enough, however, he actually has a better career OPS than Cal Ripken (who has a .787 mark) and one very close to Ernie Banks (with a mark of .833). Yes, Banks hit over 500 home runs, and Cal certainly was a middle of the order power hitter. Larkin was a prototypical lead-off hitter, and with his high on-base skills and base-running abilities, he produced about the same as those two icons in a somewhat different way.

As far as saber-metric stats like WAR are concerned, Larkin racked up nearly 71 WAR during his 19-year career, a number very comparable to Ernie Banks’ 74 WAR or Ozzie Smith's 70. Ripken's WAR total is nearly 100, but he also played in more games than Larkin, hit for more power, and was actually an even slicker fielder (by current fielding metrics) than the career Cincinnati Red. From WAR totals alone, it's pretty clear that Larkin belongs in the Hall.

Barry Larkin Compared to the Other Candidates for the Class of 2012  

Of those that didn't make the cut for the Hall of Fame induction this year, Jeff Bagwell probably should have joined Larkin. Long time workhorse pitcher Jack Morris was not far behind in voting, and nearly joined Barry in Cooperstown. Tim Raines, certainly one of the more underrated players of his time, earned enough votes for another shot at the Hall in 2013.

Barry Larkin was inducted along with the late Ron Santo, who was elected earlier in 2012 by the Veterans Committee. Of course, Santo passed away several years ago now, and many fans are upset that this honor came posthumously. There are many people on both sides of the argument on whether Santo should be in the Hall of Fame or not. While he wasn't known as a huge offensive player, he played in a pitcher's era and still hit 342 home runs and had a well above average OPS of .826, a number very similar to Larkin's. He also was, like Barry, a good, if not spectacular, defensive infielder (although shortstop is certainly a tougher position to field than third base.) So if Larkin made it into the Hall, Santo certainly deserves to be there, as well.

Looking Ahead to the Class of 2013  

Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame induction was certainly not a huge shock to anyone, as all of the other candidates had their fair share of doubters, besides Bagwell who may make it one day, simply on the strength of his domination as a hitter. However, Bagwell did play during the steroid era, and though by all accounts he was clean, he very well could end up being snubbed a spot in the Hall because of the cheating of his peers.

Bagwell, Jack Morris, and Tim Raines all have a lot of competition in 2013, however. This will be the first year on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, and Craig Biggio. It's pretty much a safe assumption that Biggio will eventually make it in. Piazza may take some time to get in because of steroid allegations, but I think most fans agree he belongs in the Hall. Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa likely will never get in for various reasons, none of which had to do with on-field performance.

Curt Schilling had a great career, and won two of the biggest World Series in recent memories (the 2001 Diamondbacks win against the Yankees and the 2004 Red Sox victory) plus a third in 2007 with the Red Sox. He may sneak in because of those memorable moments and the fact he could easily have more wins on his record if he hadn't pitched for some awful Phillies squads. He also was hands-down a far superior pitcher to Jack Morris. Just look at Schilling's stats versus Jack Morris' stats. There is really no comparison.

So congratulations to Barry Larkin on a well-deserved induction. While this year's choice was a fairly easy call, next year will be quite controversial.

(Thanks to Baseball Almanac's list of Hall of Fame Shortstops (pre-Larkin induction) for helping with this fascinating research. I also must thank Fangraphs as always, for their comprehensive player database with all the stats you could ever want. Also, Baseball Reference continues to be the go to source for many things baseball.)

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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Roy Halladay - MLB Baseball Player Bio

10/19/2014

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Roy Halladay was one of the best pitchers in baseball at one time. In 2003 and 2010, Halladay won the Cy Young Award and was in the conversation in 5 other seasons. Over his 16 year career, he's pitched over 2700 innings with a 3.38 career ERA, 203 wins with a solid 3.58 K:BB ratio. While he's never had particularly high strikeout rates (only 6.9 K/9 in his career) he's been very good at getting groundballs (54% career) and induces plenty of weak contact.

Halladay compiled 65.9 WAR according to Baseball-Reference, which exceeds the total of Hall-of-Fame pitchers Bob Feller, Juan Marichal, and Hal Newhouser. FanGraphs agrees with this total with an even higher number, 67.6 WAR, which is based on his career 3.39 FIP. It goes to show that both the traditional ERA and sabermetric FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) metrics both agree he has been an exceptional pitcher over his career.

Halladay's 2012 wasn't wonderful, but even then he was still worth 2.5 WAR according to FanGraphs. His 2013 was pretty disastrous, however, compiling a -0.8 WAR. As it turned out, Halladay threw his last Major League pitch in 2013. The Steamer projection systems still saw Halladay being able to pitch 25 starts at a 3.8 FIP (3.9 ERA) level, compiling about 2.2 WAR. In early 2014, however, he decided to hang them up, signing a one-day contract with the Blue Jays to officially retire with Toronto. In any case, Halladay is definitely Hall-of-Fame material.

Tragically, however, in 2017 Roy was killed in a plane crash in the Gulf of Mexico while piloting his own private plane. Even more tragically, it was found during Roy's autopsy that he had died with several suspicious drugs in his system. Whatever reasons for those drugs to be in his system, it was a very untimely death for someone who was only 40 years old. He left behind a family and  a good position as a mental coach for the Blue Jays' young pitchers.

Roy became eligible for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019. He was  elected posthumously on his first ever ballot. Perhaps a good part of that was out of respect for his untimely passing. In any case, though, Roy Halladay belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Thanks for the memories, Roy.

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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Kansas City Royals Sweep 2014 ALCS and Advance to World Series

10/15/2014

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Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
by Richard Rowell, Staff Writer
Eight games. Eight wins. The Kansas City Royals have won every single game that they have played this postseason: the Wild Card Game against the Oakland Athletics, three straight games against the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series, and now four straight against the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Championship Series. After winning Game 4 by a score of 2 to 1, the Royals are going on to their third world series in team history, and their first since their victory in 1985. That team included the likes of George Brett and Bret Saberhagen. Most people expected some resistance from each the Angels and the Orioles, but the Royals extremely underrated pitching staff – which carried them to 89 wins during the regular season – came through when it mattered most.

Of course, the bullpen trifecta of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and closer Greg Holland was a bit part of why the Royals won all of these games. Anytime you only need six solid innings from your starter, and you go into the seventh inning with a lead with those guys in the bullpen, you’re not going to lose many games. Most people picked the Orioles to win this series, but you can’t win any series without producing offense. As Pedro Martinez pointed out in the TBS pre-game show, the absences of Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Matt Wieters – three of their best hitters - truly did show when their line-up needed them the most. Machado and Wieters suffered season-ending injuries early on, and Chris Davis was suspended late in the 2014 season for the use of amphetamines – after already not having one of his better years.

It helps that the Royals had some offensive stars during the postseason on a team that isn’t known for their hitting prowess. Eric Hosmer led the way with a 1.370 OPS coming into today’s game (.462/.563/.808) with two home runs and seven runs batted in in 26 at-bats. But it’s been team speed (13 stolen bases in the post season against only 3 times caught stealing) that’s been the big difference. Also, the Kansas City defense, though it committed over 100 errors during the regular season, have shown their true prowess throughout the series with outfielders Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alcides Escobar leading the way with fantastic plays.

While the Orioles were basically in every game, the Royals bullpen was simply too much. As the TBS commentators pointed out at the clinching game’s conclusion, power pitching beats power hitting, and the meat of the Royals bullpen is all power. The Orioles lost Game One 8-6 (in a surprising slugfest), Game Two 6-4, and Game Three 2-1. Every game was decided by two runs or less, an area which is something that the Royals have excelled in all season.

At this time, Game 4 of the National League Championship Series between the San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals is yet to be played. Both would make a great matchup for the Royals who will be opening the World Series at home in Kauffman Stadium, due to the American League winning the World Series home field advantage during the 2014 All-Star Game. The Royals definitely look like the team to beat this year, and after I picked the Orioles to win in six games, I really find myself with no choice but to ride the hot hand and pick the Royals in five.

The Royals are the team of destiny. Now they just have to #takethecrown.

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Pedro Martinez: Baseball Hall of Famer

10/13/2014

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Is Pedro a Hall-of-Fame Pitcher? Yes!

As one who grew up watching the exploits of Pedro Martinez on the mound for the Boston Red Sox, I can tell you without a doubt that he is the greatest pitcher I have ever watched. I can quote a bunch of numbers from Baseball Reference that are pretty impressive. But there are others that will say he only had five truly elite seasons. Looking at the raw numbers, that argument could certainly be made.

Overall, over 18 seasons of Major League Baseball, Pedro accumulated 409 starts (219-100 W-L), 3154 strikeouts against 760 walks (4.15 K/BB per 9 innings) and 82.6 WAR.


Pedro's Early Career

Pedro began his MLB career with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1992. He had one start and one relief appearance. In 1993, he was given a full-time bullpen job. While he did make 2 starts, he appeared in 65 games overall, and over 107 innings, he recorded 119 strikeouts, but also collected 57 walks. All in all, Pedro was worth almost 3 WAR just as a reliever. He clearly had talent, and looked like he deserved a shot to prove himself in the starting rotation.

That chance would happen not in Los Angeles for Pedro, as he was traded to the Montreal Expos for second baseman Delino Deshields. This proved to be a steal for then General Manager Dan Duquette of Montreal. In 1994, the strike-shortened season, Pedro was a part of a pretty good Expos team, and made 23 starts with decent results. He finished with a 3.42 ERA, As a 22-year old, though, he was still a bit raw. He walked fewer batters than he had the season before, he also hit 11 batters. As it would turn out, though, it was because Pedro was never afraid to pitch inside, something that would make him a very special pitcher.

In 1995 and 1996, Pedro was a good, if not spectacular pitcher for the Expos. He was solid, but still struggled with his command a bit. Still, it was clear he had the talent to be an ace, something that in 1997 finally was realized.

The Greatest 5 Pitching Seasons on Record?

Pedro's first truly dominant season in 1997 was one of the most dominant seasons on record for any pitcher. This included 13 complete games and 4 shutouts. His baseball card stats were phenomenal: 17-8, 1.90 ERA in 241 1/3 innings with 305 strikeouts against only 67 walks (for an 8.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference.) This earned him his first of 3 Cy Young awards.

This dominant led the Boston Red Sox to trade for Pedro after that season, surrendering top pitching prospects Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. While his first season in Boston was nothing like his 1997 season, he still finished second in Cy Young voting. His numbers were definitely ace-worthy as well: 19-7, 2.89 ERA (63% below league average), 251 strikeouts to 67 walks, and was worth 6.9 WAR to Boston. He would be worth 45 WAR more to the Red Sox over the next six seasons (including an injury-plagued 2001 season). Four of those seasons may be four of the best pitching seasons (especially with the high-powered offenses of the American League) of all-time.

The next two years, 1999 and 2000, would be the two best of Pedro's career. In 1999, Pedro had a win loss record of 23-4 in 29 starts with 5 complete games. He led the league with a career high 313 strikeouts against only 37 walks, a rare feat to be sure. He was worth 9 and a half wins that year to the Red Sox (9.5 WAR). The next season in 2000, he had a record of 18-6 again in 29 starts, but an even lower ERA and 284 strikeouts against 32 walks. He won the Cy Young Award in the American League both seasons. In 2000, he had the highest WAR of his career (11.4 WAR), adding about 11 wins to his team that year.

To put a WAR of 11.4 in perspective, Babe Ruth had a 11.5 WAR in 1920 and an 11.4 WAR season in 1924, Lou Gehrig had a 11.5 WAR in 1927. The last pitcher to post a WAR total that high was Roger Clemens in 1997 with 11.8 WAR for the Blue Jays. The only other pitchers beside Walter Johnson in the 1910's and 1920's to post higher single-season WAR totals are Dwight Gooden (13 WAR in 1985), Steve Carlton (12.1 WAR in 1972), and Bob Gibson (11.7 WAR in 1968). Johnson, Gibson, and Carlton are in the Hall of Fame. For awhile, it appeared Gooden could have been, as well, were it not for his personal issues.

Pedro would have an injury-marred 2001, but still managed to start 18 games and produce a 4.9 WAR. It's very likely barring the injury he could have had yet another Cy Young Award caliber season. He would return to form in 2002, however, with a 20-4 record and a 2.26 ERA (best in the league) and a 6.2 WAR.

However, it was clear that the injury had taken its toll on his strikeout rate, as he struck out "only" 239 batters in 199 innings. His walk rate was still excellent, however, as he walked only 40 in those innings. But he would not win the Cy Young Award that year, or in fact, ever again, as he lost the crown to Barry Zito. Looking at the numbers, however, Zito was not really as good as Pedro. Zito won 3 more games and made 5 more starts. He didn't strikeout as many as Pedro (182) and walked more (78) in 229 innings (only 30 more than Pedro).


In 2003, Pedro had the last of his 5 most dominant seasons. For a second straight season, his strikeout rate fell slightly and he walked a few more batters than usual. Still he went 14-4 (a record very deceiving because he received a great deal of no-decisions that year) with 2.22 ERA in 29 starts. He did increase his WAR total, however, with a mark of 7.8 WAR. He'd never reach that mark again.

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The End of Pedro's Dominance

Without a doubt, 2004 marked the end of Pedro's run of dominance. While he was still a 5 WAR pitcher, he was clearly nowhere near the ace that he once was. Curt Schilling assumed that role that year with his 7.5 WAR. Schilling won 21 games against 6 losses, and Pedro won 16 against 9 losses. While win-loss record is not always indicative of true pitching performance, in Pedro's case, he was becoming inconsistent. A 3.90 ERA was not a number you would see from Pedro. It would actually come out to be the third highest season total of his career.

After the season, the Red Sox and Pedro decided to move on, and Pedro signed a lucrative four year deal with the New York Mets. In 2005, on paper, Pedro looked great for the Mets. But for the first time since 2005, he failed to strike out at least a batter per inning, although he walked fewer batters than in 2004. He was still an ace, though aging. But in 2006, the wheels began to fall off. He only pitched 137 innings in 23 starts and had a roughly league average 4.48 ERA. He was still a "good" pitcher, but his overall dominance was clearly gone and his arm began to really bother him at that point.

2007 would be a relatively lost season for Pedro, him having only 5 starts, although he pitched fairly well in those starts. In 2008, everything fell apart for Pedro and in twenty starts was practically a replacement-level scrub (-0.5 WAR). That looked like the very end for Pedro.
Pedro Martinez with the Philadephia Phillies
However, in the later half of 2009, Pedro decided to make a comeback with the Phillies. After doing fairly well in the minors, he was called up to the big club and made it into the playoffs. While he wasn't spectacular down the stretch for the Phillies, he was certainly useful, and won his only start in the NLCS. However, the Yankees beat him in both of his starts in the World Series on their way to the World Series title. That was the end for Pedro.


Pedro Compared to Other Hall of Famers

Pedro's career 80.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) puts him in 51st place all-time. In and of itself, that's a pretty special accomplishment. This puts him on par with Robin Roberts (career 80.1 WAR) and not far off from Gaylord Perry (career 84.5 WAR) and Steve Carlton (career 84.6 WAR). As all of those pitchers are in the Hall of Fame, Pedro's in very good company.

Even if you don't buy into the WAR statistic, looking at the career numbers of Roberts, Perry, and Carlton show that they pitched many more starts than Pedro. For Pedro to be able to amass the same Career WAR as pitchers with 600+ starts in only 409 starts is very impressive. Also, take into account that a good chunk of those later starts were with him wearing down considerably. Even though he had five truly dominant seasons, he also had five or six pretty good ones, on which most teams he would be considered an ace or at least a #2 starter.

Consider that he had 5 out of this world seasons and 5 All-Star level seasons on top of that, you could say that Pedro really had 10 very good years overall. He gave his teams tons of value whenever he pitched, except for that dismal 2008 season with the Mets. Even taking his lost season and that into account, he basically produced the same value as his potential Hall-of-Fame peers in far fewer starts.

Ryan Roberts had 609 starts over 19 years. Perry had 690 starts over 22 years. Carlton had 709 starts over 24 years. Pedro generally out-performed Roberts in 200 fewer starts and did almost what Carlton and Perry did in 300 fewer starts. Baseball fans can all agree that Roberts, Carlton, and Perry were all great pitchers that belong in the Hall of Fame. While he isn't quite to the level of Bert Blyleven (89.3), Randy Johnson (96.3) or Greg Maddux (101.6), he's in the neighborhood.

So by the overall numbers overall, he was probably the fifth best pitcher of his era, if you include Roger Clemens 100+ career WAR. But no one had 5 seasons like Pedro did. No one dominated the baseball scene the way he did. Watching Pedro pitch was watching a masterpiece almost every time he took the mound.

The memories alone are probably what make us think he was the greatest of all time. As we can now see, his top seasons most certainly were among some of the greatest of all time for pitching (by WAR standards). However, he's not quite the greatest of all time. He's still worthy of being in there, and in 2015, Pedro would indeed become enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in his first chance.

Since retiring, Pedro continues to work with young pitchers and does commentary on baseball broadcasts for TBS.

Thanks for such an awesome career, Pedro!


Photo credits: All pictures courtesy of Wikimedia Commons


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