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MLB - Is Xander Bogaerts Finally Coming Into His Own?

7/12/2015

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by  Richard Rowell,  Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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The struggles of Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts in 2014 are well-documented. Whether it was confidence issues created by being shifted to third base where he struggled mightily on defense or the inability to make adjustments to major league pitching, those issues seem to be fixed this season. Now installed full-time at shortstop, Bogaerts has been the second-best shortstop in the league according to FanGraphs' WAR leaderboard,. His 2.2 WAR at the All-Star break is second only to the Giants' Brandon Crawford, who has 2.9 WAR.

The majority of his improvements have come on defense at shortstop. He's been a +3 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) defender this season compared to -9 DRS last season at shortstop alone, adding another -7 DRS at third base. He essentially cost the Red Sox a win and a half in 2014 simply with poor defense. Because shortstop has been such a less-than-stellar position overall recently, however, Bogaerts managed to still be worth about 0.4 WAR despite having a batting line of about 18 percent below league average.

So is Bogaerts finally about to become an above-average starting shortstop? He has been so far. But there are warning signs. His batting line of .302/.337/.412, while excellent and about 6 percent above league average, is being propped up by a .350 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).  His career low walk rate of 4.8% isn't encouraging but his 14.8 K% is a huge improvement compared to his 23.2% last season. He's using his speed to much greater effect, with 16 infield hits on the season after having that number in all of 2014. So a higher BABIP is probably sustainable., although perhaps not at this level

Another thing to look at is his pitch values. The sinker and slider devastated Bogaerts last year. He posted -3.81 and -2.57 runs/100 pitches against sinkers and sliders, respectively. This season, those numbers are -.032 and -0.05. He's making better quality of contact by being more aggressive.

If Bogaerts keeps up the defensive improvements and can continue to bat at around a league average clip, Boston may truly have their shortstop of the future. He may never be the perennial All-Star they were hoping for, but right now, he probably is the best shortstop in the American League. With all that's gone wrong with the 2015 Red Sox, Bogaerts has been strong and steady.

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Boston Red Sox Acquire Catcher Sandy Leon

3/30/2015

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by  Richard Rowell,  Write W.A.V.E. Media  Staff
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With Red Sox starting catcher Christian Vazquez dealing with an elbow injury that could potentially end his season, the team went out and acquired catcher Sandy Leon from the Washington Nationals. It's unknown at this point what the Red Sox promised the Nationals in acquiring him, but it will likely be cash considerations or a player to be named later. As Leon was out of minor league options, were the Nationals to send him to the minor leagues, he would have had to pass through waivers.

Despite only being a back-up caliber catcher, Leon's cannon arm and above-average defensive skills behind the plate would have been picked up by a number of teams for free. This way, the Nationals will at least get some value for letting the Red Sox enjoy his services. Leon is a veteran of 34 games across 3 seasons with the Nationals, hitting only .189/.280/.253 in that time. He hasn't been much of an offensive force in the minors, either, outside of a 117 wRC+ run in 40 games at AA in 2012, followed by an incredible outburst of 188 wRC+ in 19 games at AAA which earned him his first call-up.

The projection system ZiPS projects Leon for a .217/.285/.317 batting line in about 300 plate appearances, which is worth about a 69 wRC+ or 31 percent below league average.. He's also projected to save about 13 runs on defense. in 83 games, making him overall worth about 12 runs above replacement level. While it's doubtful that the Red Sox would need to turn to Leon for that many games, he is a better option than veteran Humberto Quintero, who is decent on defense, but projected to be even worse on offense.. Quintero also isn't on the 40-man roster, meaning the Red Sox would have to make a move to put him on it. Top prospect Blake Swihart is on the 40-man roster, but the Sox would prefer to send him to AAA Pawtucket for further seasoning.

Leon should serve as a more than serviceable back-up to the Sox's other catcher, Ryan Hanigan, until Vazquez returns or Swihart proves he's ready for the big leagues. It's a good value pickup for the Sox in any case.
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Did the Red Sox Fail Xander Bogaerts?

10/5/2014

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Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia in 2014. Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
by Richard Rowell, Staff Writer
On May 20th 2014, Xander Bogaerts had some good offensive numbers. Sure, in the field he was having some mental lapses, but at the plate, he was flirting with a .400 OBP with a respectable batting average hovering around .300. After only a .378 SLG in May, the power began to come. But with an injury to the ineffective Will Middlebrooks the Red Sox made the strange decision to give Stephen Drew $10 million to come back and play shortstop.

Now on the surface, okay, this doesn't look terrible. You move Bogaerts over to third base and let Drew handle the position that he's best at. The Red Sox knew that no one would sign Drew until after the Amateur Draft in June. Because the Red Sox offered Drew a $14.1 million qualifying offer in the off-season, any team that signed him before the early June draft would have to surrender a first-round draft pick and the Red Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick in return. Because of the situation, the draft pick would have been no longer applicable. There were teams that wanted Drew, but were patient enough to wait. But the Red Sox, with their season not going so well, decided to pay Drew the pro-rated amount of the $14.1 million they originally offered him. Scott Boras really must have talked Ben Cherington into it.

At the time, I was not crazy about the move, but I couldn't have even imagined how badly Drew would go on to play, and how destroyed Xander Bogaerts' confidence would become.

Bogaerts was not a very good defensive shortstop in those first two months. But he would be even worse at third base. He would rack up -7 Defensive Runs at the position in only 385 innings (read: very bad) with a -28.8 UZR/150 (read: very, very bad.) In June his batting line would be .135/.176/.250, something resembling a pitcher's batting line in the National League. In July, he started to come around, but not by much, batting .228/.253/.342. By this point, Drew was already playing himself off the team, with his own .176/.255/.328 batting line. To be fair, defensively he was okay, recording a modest 2 DRS saved with the Sox in around 300 innings. He saved the Red Sox perhaps a few runs in the field. But his lack of offense was so bad that they shipped him off to the Yankees on July 31st - plus cash - for Kelly Johnson. Johnson didn't even last 10 games before being shipped off in a waiver wire deal to the Orioles that included Jemile Weeks.

With Bogaerts now free to play shortstop again, in August, he played in fewer games and did even worse. He was perhaps the worst offensive player in baseball, with a .123./.195/.167 batting line in 21 games. In September, though, Bogaerts regained his confidence and in 24 games, he hit .313/.317/.490 with 4 home runs. While it’s not good that the plate discipline evaporated, it’s good to see the power and average return. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury ended his season early as they held him out in the last few games as a precautionary measure.

The good news is that it appears Bogaerts was not irreparably broken by the Red Sox's clear mistake in seeming to give up on him. They never actually gave up on him. But they didn't bother to realize how much signing Drew and not letting a young player that was excelling on offense a chance to work through his struggles. Brian Butterfield is a legendary infield coach. Derek Jeter has for years been below average defensively as a shortstop - at least according to the defensive metrics - and he's a sure-fire Hall of Famer! Bogaerts was displaying incredible plate discipline and while the power wasn't developing quite as quickly as the Sox had hoped, he was showing exactly why a 21-year old was in the Major Leagues.

Clearly, being forced over to third base with the looming prospect of Will Middlebrooks - who the Red Sox have given far too long a leash to - returning from injury really got inside Xander's head. Fortunately for Xander, Middlebrooks kept having complications, so he still kept playing - and playing - and playing very badly.

But you had Stephen Drew making $10 million and playing a solid defensive shortstop. So, nope, sorry, Xander, keep sucking at third. His defensive struggles clearly destroyed his focus at the plate and he turned into a nearly useless hitter for three months. The Sox could have had an above average starter at shortstop despite his defensive struggles. Instead, they got a replacement level shortstop and a below replacement level third baseman - for $10 million and a lot of grief on poor Xander's part.

I put the blame squarely on Ben Cherington for allowing himself to make such a stupid desperation move to sign Drew and put manager John Farrell in the impossible position of having to continue to play a young player whose confidence had been destroyed at a position where he was clearly uncomfortable and blowing seemingly easy plays.

Of course, the struggles of the Red Sox go far beyond that. Dustin Pedroia was playing all season with a bum left hand, destroying his power numbers. Mike Napoli, likewise, displayed next to no power this season due to his own ailments. David Ortiz was fantastic, yes. But for a long time, Brock Holt was the second-best hitter on the Red Sox, playing way over his head. Mookie Betts was that man for the rest of the season.

The good news is that shortstop belongs to Xander Bogaerts in 2015. Now he has to rediscover his plate discipline, as he has clearly become far more aggressive at the plate. Honestly, they should let Bogaerts be the player he was clearly becoming in May. This guy has the ceiling of a Derek Jeter-like player. You can lose a few runs on defense to have an extraordinary offensive shortstop. Remember Derek Jeter!? The guy that Xander idolized? The guy that you honored at Fenway in his last ever Major League Baseball game? Yeah, that guy.

The Red Sox definitely blew this season for Bogaerts. It was just one major mistake in a season full of nagging injuries, poor performances, absolute disasters and lack of execution on the part of most of the roster. Besides Joe Kelly, the Red Sox starters have been awful since the departure of Jon Lester and John Lackey. Buchholz had four good starts in a row before returning to his previous form. This team hasn't been mediocre. They've been atrocious. Without John Lackey’s and Jon Lester’s performances, they easily would have had the worst record in baseball.

I just hope they didn't break Bogaerts. I don't think they did, but wow, they failed him this year. As for what will happen with Will Middlebrooks, I'd rather take my chances by signing Chase Headley - who should be an off-season bargain. I'd rather have a Gold Glove third baseman with league-average offense than a guy who just strikes out all the time and is below average at the hot corner. Fortunately, Xander is still a special player and should be a fixture up the middle in Boston for years to come.

(Postscript December 4, 2014 - Fortunately for Xander, the Red Sox signed Pablo Sandoval to play third base for the Red Sox for at least five years and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. So Xander's future at shortstop for the Red Sox looks quite secure.)

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Do the Red Sox Miss Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

10/4/2014

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by Richard Rowell, Staff Writer
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
There were not a lot of people that thought Jarrod Saltalamacchia would build off of what was easily a breakout 2013 campaign. "Salty" was a major component of the Red Sox improbable run to the World Series. Despite his defensive handicaps, he put up very strong offensive numbers for a backstop, compiling 2.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to Baseball-Reference. The Red Sox decided that he was only worth a two-year contract, and although Saltalamacchia wasn't looking for big money, he desperately wanted that third year. The Minnesota Twins and the Miami Marlins came calling with three-year pacts. The Twins offered a bit more money than the Marlins, but being from Florida, "Salty" took a bit less money to "go home."

It's been a rough season for Salty in Miami. He's essentially been worth about replacement level after his bat has seemingly abandoned him in 2014. He's been fine at home with a .748 OPS, but away he's had only a paltry .611 OPS - oddly enough with a higher walk rate. His defense is about as mediocre as it's been, as well.

The Red Sox decided to go defense-first at catcher and signed the veteran A.J. Pierzynski, long known as a controversial player, to a one-year contract worth about $8 million. While defensively he was perfectly fine and a huge upgrade over Salty's questionable abilities, he simply could not hit. He was worth -0.3 WAR to the Red Sox in 72 games before being flat out released in July. He was picked up by the Cardinals who were desperate for a catcher after All-Star Catcher Yadier Molina went out with injury. He proceeded to be even worse, racking up -0.6 WAR. Pierzynski looked finished after 2013, and he most certainly is now.

So from a straight "do the Red Sox miss Salty" standpoint, it would actually stand to reason that they in fact do, but fortunately the Red Sox have Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez hasn't hit for beans, he's made outstanding plays behind the dish that have made him worth 1.1 WAR in only 55 games according to Baseball-Reference (0.7 WAR according to FanGraphs). David Ross has played at about replacement level as his back-up.

While I can't see the Red Sox really going forward with Christian Vazquez as the number one catcher next year, it appears that they are willing to do so at the cost of offense. Vazquez is as good as advertised and will probably end up being a Gold Glove catcher in the near future. But he's going to top out as an elite back-up for a good team. The Sox need someone like a Russell Martin for at least 2015 and 2016 while they see what top prospect Blake Swihart really is. But the fact is that the Red Sox knew Vazquez's defense would be worth his poor showing at bat, and he may yet improve a bit.

So do the Red Sox miss Salty? Not that horribly yet. Vazquez has been more valuable than Salty this year with his back-stop work. Maybe the Sox were right to let Salty go, but man, they should've just given the job to Vazquez, then.


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Will the Red Sox Miss John Lackey?

10/2/2014

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
PictureJohn Lackey; Image: Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
At the July 31st trade deadline, the Red Sox traded pitcher John Lackey to the St. Louis Cardinals for outfielder Allen Craig and pitcher Joe Kelly. The Cardinals seemed to have given up on both players, and needing some rotation help, the Cardinals were happy to get a veteran presence in their rotation with postseason experience. Also, Lackey has the ridiculous $500,000 club option for next season due to the clause that Theo Epstein put into his contract when he was signed before the 2012 season were he to miss time with elbow injury - which he did.

After a major comeback season in 2013 after missing all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lackey was fine in 2014 for the Red Sox. He was well on the way to another one of his better seasons when he was traded. Upon joining the Cardinals, he ran into some poor luck on balls in play, and through 10 starts has a 4.30 ERA. Baseball-Reference has him being worth -0.3 WAR based on runs allowed, but he's actually pitched alright. Fortunately for him, he'll get to the playoffs with the Cards, as they clinched a spot. The Cardinals know all about Lackey's post-season pitching prowess as they faced him in the clincher in the 2013 World Series. Lackey's also promised to honor that option for next season, so the Cardinals aren't just getting a rental and he's shown no signs of deteriorating at 35 years old. He probably easily has one more very good season left in him.

Allen Craig has been dealing with some injury problems this season, especially in his foot. His power evaporated and for a time was one of the worst position players in baseball. With 3 years remaining after this one on his contract, the Cardinals were happy to jettison him onto the willing Red Sox. It was a bizarre looking throw-in for the Sox who didn't really have room for him to play. Since joining the Sox, Craig has been horrendous, batting .128/.234/.191 in 107 at-bats, and cost the Red Sox half-a-win (-0.5 WAR) in the process. As it is, 2014 has just been a lost season for Craig, so the Red Sox are hoping he'll rebound next year, although it's hard to say where he fits into the 2015 lineup.

Joe Kelly was really the prize of the deal, and since coming to the Red Sox, he's been a bit inconsistent. At times, you see the top-of-the-rotation potential clearly obvious. Other times, he starts walking everyone. His 41-to-32 strikeout to walk ratio since joining the Red Sox is not pretty, but as far as results, he's earned 0.3 WAR in his 10 starts. Also, before coming to the Red Sox, Kelly wasn't bad in 7 starts for the Cardinals. If Kelly can improve his command somewhat, he's a fairly valuable pitcher, easily a #3 starter. But until he gets those walks under control and can avoid that "one bad inning" syndrome he's long had, he may only be a guy to run out there every fifth day. If so, you have an extremely good #5 starter. But there's upside here, maybe not quite ace potential, but he's not arbitration eligible until after 2015. So the Red Sox have him under control for a while, making him very easily a long-term asset as long as he stays healthy and can improve his performance slightly.

If in the next three years Allen Craig returns to previous form and Joe Kelly tops out as a #3 or even #4 starter, the Red Sox will "win" in this deal. But the Cardinals got a very good pitcher out of this. It's possible that Craig is just a pumpkin at this point, but they had to take him in order to get Kelly, I'm sure - the way that the Red Sox took Lowell to get Beckett. Yes, I am hoping that this trade turns out much like that now-famous trade with Florida - in which the Red Sox gave up Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez (the latter of whom the Red Sox would actually miss, the former who only found his groove with the Tigers). Lowell, of course, went on to be very good with the Sox until injuries ended his career during his last season and a half with the team. Beckett would be very good for a few years before going in the mega-deal with the Dodgers.

The only difference here is that the Red Sox only gave up Corey Littrell, not a major prospect, Lackey and cash. It was not a bad trade for the Cardinals, but the Red Sox probably won't miss Lackey's 2015 all that much unless Corey Littrell turns out to be special. If just Craig or Kelly do well, the Sox won't miss Lackey at all.




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Will Clay Buchholz Bounce Back?

10/2/2014

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
PictureClay Buchholz, Red Sox; Image: Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain
After 78 pitches through seven strong innings on September 23, 2014, Clay Buchholz was sent back out to the mound for the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays. From a pitch count standpoint, Buchholz should have had no problem going back out for the eighth inning. But after 28 pitches, Buchholz had surrendered 5 runs to the Rays, and the Sox went on to lose 6-2. It was a meaningless game and for Buchholz to suffer that sort of embarrassment just puts an exclamation point on what's been a horrible season for the right-hander.

Never mind why bother sending one of your more valuable pitchers (perhaps the most valuable pitcher the Sox have at this point!) back to the mound for an eighth inning in a meaningless game while you're up in the game. His control simply abandoned him. He walked a batter and hit two batters. Cespedes did horribly misplay a ball off of the Green Monster in left field which didn't help the cause. Why Farrell didn't immediately get him out of there is beyond me. He's had a rough enough season. I would have just let him go seven and pulled him, patted him on the back, and said get ready for your last start against the Yankees.

In his final start of the season against the Yankees, he wasn't all that great either. He surrendered four runs in six innings, although he only walked one batter and only gave up five hits, although they were hard hits. As it turns out, Craig Breslow would give up five more runs and never record an out, so it was a bit of a tough loss for Buchholz who still had a chance to win until the Yankees blew it open.

Sure, Buchholz has been an enigma for quite a long time. He's racked up tons of time on the DL. Last season, though, when he did pitch, he was brilliant. That is, until the playoffs. He was not good whatsoever. But in the 2013 season, he had a ridiculous 1.74 ERA in 16 starts. His peripheral numbers didn't quite back him up, but he was truly an ace when he was out there.

The Red Sox have some decisions to make about Buchholz. He is signed for $12 million next season, a hefty raise from the $7.7 million he's earned in 2014. He then has two options worth $13 million and $13.5 million for 2016 and 2017, respectively. Both have very inexpensive buyouts: $245,000 for 2016 and $500,000 for 2017. Whatever happens, the Red Sox will have Buchholz for $12 million in 2015, unless they trade him - and right now, who would want him?

While I'm personally high on Joe Kelly being a solid contributor to the Red Sox for 2015 and beyond, he's not an ace - at best a #2 starter, perhaps. Buchholz is the best pitcher currently on the Boston Red Sox. Matt Barnes and Henry Owens have potential, but they are unknowns. We all know Buchholz has the ability to be an ace-level starter. The Red Sox obviously won't give up on his 2015. The question is, will he rebound after all of the wear and tear on his body and his obvious lapses in control and command? Plus, he had some minor meniscus surgery on his knee shortly after his last start, which while perhaps not a big deal, could be an injury that explains some of his inconsistency this season. He did still end up pitching 170 innings, albeit of poor 5.34 ERA ball (over five runs per nine innings), but he did still get out there fairly often.

For 2015, there's not much the Sox can do but hope and pencil him into the rotation. The raise in salary doesn't help the Sox, but if he does bounce back, they have team control for at least 2 seasons. But for what little he's done for the team in 2014, it's hard to see that happening. Basically, if he can stay healthy and avoid these major pitfall innings, he should be fine. But there are no promises. The Sox just have to hope 2015 is his best year yet - they'll need it.




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