Category: Boston Red Sox - Life... Successfully

A Guide to Willie McGee Red Sox Baseball Cards

10/29/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Willie McGee was a popular baseball player who mostly played for the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, but also played stints with two other teams: the Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox. While his time with the Red Sox was short, only 67 games in 1995, there are a couple of cards of the former 1985 MVP in a Red Sox uniform.

The 1995 Upper Deck “Traded” Willie McGee Baseball Card

If you want to collect Willie McGee baseball cards depicting him on the Boston Red Sox, you need only find two - three if you include a limited edition parallel. His first Red Sox card is featured in 1995 Upper Deck, card number 484. It features McGee running the bases - something he always did quite well - although McGee only stole 5 bases (and was caught twice) with the Red Sox.

This card is actually more scarce that you might expect, due to the fact that it was only available as a “Traded” redemption available from cards pulled from 1995 Upper Deck Series Two packs. Because of its limited distribution, you will have to keep an eye out for a copy, since they don’t very often come up for sale - partly because McGee was, and still is, a popular player in the hobby. The good news is if you are trying to collect a true “base set” of Willie McGee’s career, this card isn’t considered to count.

The 1996 Donruss Willie McGee Baseball Card

Fortunately, if you really can’t find a copy of the 1995 Upper Deck “Traded” card, you can find a much more easily acquired 1996 Donruss card. Despite this being a regular base card, it’s still not easily found for sale - although it’s certainly easier to find than the 1995 Upper Deck redemption.

Personally, I like this card more than the Upper Deck for a few reasons. The front depicts Willie swinging away, and the back features him showing bunt. It also features his complete career stat line through 1995. Also, there is a parallel of this card, a Press Proof with a print run of only 2000. Good luck finding that one.

If you were ever interested in completing a Willie McGee master set on the PSA Set Registry, you’d actually only need the base 1996 Donruss Willie McGee. Currently, as of late October 2019, there aren’t any PSA 10 copies - so whoever happens to submit the first gem mint copy will have a nice little achievement.

Of course, these Willie McGee cards are a must have for any serious Willie McGee baseball card collector or hardcore Red Sox collector. Unlike so many cards from the mid 1990’s, these are actually fairly difficult to find, making for a nice little hunt for interested collectors.

Bobby Dalbec - A Red Sox Top Prospect Rookie Card Review

10/28/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Unlike fellow Red Sox top prospect Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec may be close to his Major League debut. In 2019, Dalbec did plenty of damage at Double-A Portland in the Atlantic League. His first 30 game stint was encouraging, hitting 7 home runs without embarrassing himself. Dalbec will be 25 in June 2020, so very soon the Red Sox will want to see what they really have in their top prospect. Like Casas, Dalbec has immense raw power, rated a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Also Like Casas, Dalbec has a below average hit tool, meaning he doesn't really hit for average. Unlike Casas, he may never develop into more than a .250 hitter at the MLB level.

However, Dalbec has other things going for him. Dalbec has much more advanced plate discipline and tons of walks at Double-A. He has also been trimming his strikeout rate Which is another good sign. The only troubling thing so far is he walked very little on his promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket. That can partially be explained away by Dalbec potentially trying to prove himself at the minors most advanced level. He did show the power and didn't strike out more than he did at Portland.

The other plus with Dalbec perhaps is what will make him a much better real life player than may be ever reflected in his card prices. Casas may be a passable third baseman with his above average arm, but his future is likely as a slightly better than average first baseman on defense. On the other hand, Dalbec projects to be a better than average fielder with an excellent arm at the hot corner. Because he is likely much more versatile on defense, the Red Sox may be happy to just have him for his fielding ability and take any power he offers as a binus.

Obviously, Dalbec looks to be a nice useful player. But being on the doorstep of the major leagues with really only raw power, walk, and nice fielding skills to his credit, is there much potential for the hobby to embrace him?

Bobby Dalbec's key rookie card is 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft. While his auto is popular, it still sells for less than that of Single-A slugger Triston Casas. Is Dalbec undervalued, especially being so close to the majors? Or are hobby prospectors more intrigued by Casas' ceiling? Both have plenty of prospect hype, but Dalbec can likely help very soon at the MLB level. Considering you can find his base Chrome - and even the refractor - very recently in the dollar bin, he could be a nice player to hoard and flip very soon if that's what you'd like to do.

The big question is Dalbec ready for regular MLB duty. Many prospect evaluators Believe he has more room to grow. His Autos aren't super cheap, and there still is some prospect hype baked into thatorice. A lot has to do with how the Red Sox front office handles him. The red sox may not be the team he starts for in the near future, as the Red Sox may need to evaluate whether Dalbec is better off as a trade chip as they try to creatively rework their roster.

Of course, staying with the Red Sox may be good for his future, but if he can become a starter somewhere else and succeed, that’s even better for both Dalbec and his rookie cards. In any case, Dalbec seems to be very close to Major League action. Whether he becomes a backup corner infielder, a second-division starter (that is, for a below-average team), or an all-star is all up to how he fares once thrown into the MLB fire. His base Chrome would be my choice, although his auto is still cheap enough that if you believe he can carry his power, arm, and glove to a starting job somewhere, it’s worth a look.

Triston Casas - A Red Sox Top Prospect Rookie Card Review

10/27/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

Triston Casas is the type of baseball prospect that hobby prospectors salivate over. Many scouts believe that the Red Sox top prospect could develop into a middle of the batting order hitter. His Raw Power scouting grade from FanGraphs is a 70 with 80 potential - 80 being the top grade. His current in-game power grade is a 35 with a 65 potential.

As for results, his 137 wRC+ mostly at A-ball is fine, and just turning 20 and graduated to High-A ball, he still projects as at least an average Major League player. The big question with him is if his hit tool - ability to hit for average - will rise from the current 25 to the potential 50. The good news is he doesn’t strike-out a ton for a young power hitter and he does take some walks, so his profile is actually pretty good.

His key rookie card is the 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto. The last raw one that sold on eBay was mid October 2019 for $49.99 plus $3.50 shipping. We’ll call it a $50 to $55 card. The cheapest you’ll find on eBay the night of this writing is $60.

There are a couple of other Bowman Chrome Draft autos of Casas that are selling, however, that include the Class of 2018 auto (the refractor numbered to 250) and the Draft Night auto (refractors numbered to 99 and gold refractors numbered to 50). These are attractive targets because there are simply so few of them. The class of 2018 refractor auto you can find for about $40 plus shipping. The draft night auto you’ll be lucky to find for $85 - that comp is already graded PSA 10.

As a collector, I actually favor the serial numbered autos, but my opinion is that the refractors of the 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft auto are the best investment for ROI. That’s because it’s his official 1st Bowman card and the card with the biggest market. That being said, having already graded copies of extremely limited edition cards is a nice “go for broke” strategy. If you want to play it safe, there’s the non-auto 2018 Bowman Chrome Draft which you can find in high grade for $15-20.

Personally, I’d play it safe with Casas for the time being. Yes, he is the #1 Red Sox prospect, but he just hit .254 at A-ball. Yes, his batting eye is decent and he made noise when he did make contact. I need to see more progress before I would invest in his future, outside of maybe some raw Chrome 1st Bowman cards or colored parallels of his base Bowman Draft card.

All of these points about buying and selling sports cards are just my own informed opinions. They should NOT be taken as professional investment advice. Always do your own research, as the card market can shift drastically without much notice. Remember, this is a hobby, so you must be prepared to be stuck holding any cards you collect.

Transparency notice: As of this writing, I currently own no Triston Casas cards, but may purchase some Chrome base cards or colored parallels purely for Personal Collection purposes.

Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future?

9/16/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Brandon Workman has enjoyed a stellar career year for the Boston Red Sox. He’s been such a fantastic relief pitcher, in fact, that he’s become the Red Sox closer. His strikeout rate is off the charts and he’s allowed just one home run in 66 ⅓ innings! Perhaps even more incredible is despite seemingly unsustainable BABIP and HR/9 marks - and a high walk rate - Workman’s incredible season isn’t just a mirage.

It’s time to turn to my favorite statistical analysis tool for baseball: StatCast. Just look at these numbers:

Barrel Rate: 0.8% (Top 1% of league)
Expected Batting Average: .174 (Top 2% of league)
Expected Slugging Percentage: .237 (Top 1% of league)
Actual wOBA: .209 (Top 1% of league)
Expected wOBA: .256 (Top 5% of league)
Expected wOBA on contact: .311 (Top 5% of league)
Hard Hit Percentage: 28.9% (Top 6% of league)
Strikeout Rate: 35.5% (Top 4% of league)

(Note that all numbers are as of 9/16/2019)

The only bad number that StatCast spits out? His walk rate, 15.5%, which ranks in the bottom 1% of the league. Workman is simply not allowing much hard contact and he’s striking guys out, both things you really want a pitcher to do.

According to FanGraphs, the fielding-independent pitching metrics suggest that even with that high walk rate and miniscule HR allowed rate, his FIP is 2.52 and his expected FIP - which uses an average HR/9 rate - is 3.44. Obviously, those are all acceptable numbers for a closer. Overall, FanGraphs rates Workman as earning 1.9 WAR. Not bad for a guy that the ZiPs projection system saw as a barely above replacement-level middle reliever.

But Wait, It Gets Better for Brandon Workman!

By Baseball-Reference’s WAR, which instead uses Runs Allowed per 9 innings, and not the FIP metric, Workman has been worth 2.8 WAR to the Red Sox in 2019. When you realize that Workman has been worth 2.9 WAR in his entire career including 2019, you realize what an incredible breakout this has been.

So, what’s changed about Workman? Here’s a guy who had a decent rookie season back for the eventual 2013 World Champion Red Sox as a relief pitcher. Then, he had a brutal 2014 season as a starter, after which he missed all of 2015 and 2016 (except for a few brutal rehab appearances in the minors in ‘16) with arm injuries. But, Workman bounced back nicely in 2017, pitching excellently for Pawtucket and pitching pretty well between AAA and MLB in both 2017 and 2018.

In 2013 and 2014, Workman had a sinking fastball and a change-up in addition to his four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball. After arm troubles, when he returned to full health in 2017, those sinker and change-up were taken out of his repertoire. But he has the same three pitches in 2019 that he did in 2017 and 2018. So, what’s the difference?

One obvious thing that’s different is the average fastball velocity. Workman’s four-seam fastball has averaged 92.8 MPH this year. That’s up a lot from 2018 when it was 91.2, and even higher than 2017 when it was 92.2. The added velocity is definitely a big part of it, but what’s more incredible is the spin rate.

The spin rate on Workman’s fastball is 2121 rpm, up from 2003 and 1982 the previous two years. Those increases in velocity and spin rate have led to a whiff rate of 35.9 percent, a huge jump from 18.3% in 2018 and 17.0% in 2017. That nearly doubled whiff rate has made Workman’s fastball practically unhittable, with a measly .129 batting average and .145 slugging percentage against. StatCast agrees with those numbers with .135 and .174 expected marks.

Brandon Workman Loves to Throw You a Curveball, A Lot

Interestingly, Workman only throws the four-seamer 33.1% of the time, down from 38.9% in 2018 and 51.2% in 2017. What’s replaced many of those fastballs, and a few of his cutters, is his curveball. It’s pretty much the same pitch as 2018’s curveball, although with more spin than 2017. Despite a lower whiff rate of 28.9%, batters have only hit .133 against it. While StatCast sees that as unsustainable, it still expects a batting average of merely .193. You can’t go wrong with that curve.

The most interesting part of this StatCast pitch arsenal data has to do with his cutter. Despite only throwing it 19.8% of the time, it clearly has been the culprit of many of Workman’s issued walks in 2019. His cutter has a whopping 20.4% walk rate. And if that sounds high, it should, as his cutter has never had higher than a 10% walk rate since StatCast began tracking pitches in that way. But, there are a couple of upsides to the cutter. It has a whopping whiff rate of 43.6%, and despite only having a K% of 26.5, has been an effective third pitch overall. Batters have only hit .083 against it, although StatCast expects a .178 batting average. Still, that’s pretty good - even with all the walks it’s ended up creating.

What this data tells us is that Workman has thrown the curve more than ever in 2019, and it’s helped both his fastball and cutter play up. While it’s clear that we may not be able to expect him to replicate this success going forward, it is clear that Workman has found a really nice pitch mix that works for him.

How Will Brandon Workman Do in 2020?

Workman was eligible for arbitration in 2019, and settled for a $1.15 million contract. That’s turned out to be a massive bargain for the Red Sox. Going into his final year of arbitration, Workman should easily expect a substantial pay raise. Through 9/16/19, Workman has a 9-1 win loss record with 14 saves and 15 holds. He does have 6 blown saves, though, but not all of those were as a closer. You may not think wins hold as much water as they once did, especially for a reliever, but that does look awfully nice on his baseball card.

Of course, if Workman’s agent does his homework, there’s a lot to like about Workman going forward. All of this pitch data is very easily accessible. Being credited for 9 wins and 14 saves means something, too - in fact, Workman’s WPA+ (Win Probability Added) on the season through 9/16 is 8.98. Of course, there are two components to WPA (WPA+ and WPA-) and his overall WPA is 2.18, which is still quite good. That mark isn’t far behind one of the best relievers in baseball - Josh Hader - at 2.36, and just ahead of Liam Hendricks, the solid A’s reliever, at 2.16. So, Workman has been a very valuable reliever.

The advanced stats keep working in Workman’s favor in terms of StatCast expected stats, too. His expected wOBA of .256 ranks right in between the Houston Astros’ top relievers in Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna. Also, he’s not far behind his own teammate, Darwinzon Hernandez, at .253. That’s good company. His actual wOBA, though? Get this, it’s the lowest of any pitcher with 100 Plate Appearances. Workman’s performance has literally made Workman the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2019.

Talk about an arbitration case in Workman’s favor! Even if he stumbles a bit in the last couple weeks of the season, Workman has still been incredible. Should he be the Boston Red Sox closer going into 2020? There’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be.

Of course, there is Darwinzon Hernandez, who Jhoulys Chacin memorably compared to his former teammate Josh Hader. As the StatCast data shows, Chacin is right. If you believe the StatCast metrics - and there’s little reason not to - the Red Sox have one of the best 8th and 9th inning combos in the game going into 2020. Not a bad setup.

Because of this, it’s possible that the Red Sox explore a contract extension with Workman this offseason. It’s also equally possible that the Red Sox lean on his good, not great past performance and go into 2020 with Workman on a one-year deal to prove he’s for real. But as we’ve broken down here in great length, Workman is definitely a changed pitcher. If he can work on reducing the walks on his cutter, he could, in fact, be the best closer in ALL of baseball. That’s pretty incredible stuff.

Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future? Perhaps. Brandon Workman IS the Boston Red Sox Closer of RIGHT NOW, though, for sure. That future title may go to Darwinzon Hernandez, but you never know. Workman is only 31 years old, very young for a relief pitcher. As long as he’s not overused or overworked, Workman likely has a very nice late-inning career ahead of him.

Baseball America 2019 High-A Minor League Player of the Year: Jarren Duran of the Red Sox!

9/13/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Congratulations to outfielder Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox for being recognized as the Baseball America High-A Player of the Year! For Salem in the Carolina League, Duran hit .387/.456/.543 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, and 18 SB in 50 games. That’s good for a 191 wRC+, which is obviously quite nuts.

However, Duran actually spent most of the 2019 season at Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs, where he hit a mere .250/.309/.325 with only 1 HR and 19 RBI. Even when you account for his 28 SB (against only 8 times caught), that’s good for only a 87 wRC+. However, despite his hiccup with the bat, Duran is a potential plus defensive outfielder, although he’s still transitioning from his original position of second base.

FanGraphs isn’t hugely big on his future potential value, giving him a 45 where 50 is a potential average Major League player. They’re high on his speed, of course, giving him a 70 out of a potential 80. But his other current and future potential values are not what you’d expect from a Player of the Year.

From Fangraphs

Hit: 40 / 55
Game Power: 30 / 40
Raw Power: 45 / 45
Speed: 70 / 70
Field: 40 / 50
Throws: 40 / 40
Future Value: 45

Of course, if Duran does become the plus defender in center field his speed and athleticism suggest, he would instantly be at least a league-average center fielder in the Majors. Saving runs in center field is extremely valuable. It should be noted that Duran was an excellent second baseman, but the Sox organization felt his athleticism was wasted at the position. The below-average arm doesn’t matter as much in center field, either.

The rest of the scouting report suggests that if he refines his baserunning instincts, he could be an easy 30 SB threat in the Majors. The question is if his hit tool develops enough to become a .300 hitter in the Majors. His plate discipline is decent enough and if he takes full advantage of his speed, the Sox have a really good player here.

It should be noted that the Steamer projection already sees Jarren Duran as a .281/.324/.402 hitter right now. Before you factor in his potential stolen bases, that’s already a 86 wRC+. Of course, that projection is heavily influenced by that Single-A outburst. But for a 23-year old with an ETA of 2022, the Sox could have a really nice late bloomer that can play both second base and center field.

What do you think of Jarren Duran as a prospect? I find it hard to get excited about a guy who dominates Single-A then stumbles so badly at Double-A. Of course, the former 7th-round draft selection Duran has his fans. Heck, he was included in the famous (infamous?) Gary Vee Direct 360 set. Unsurprisingly with the Baseball America prospect spotlight now placed on him, Jarren Duran’s cards are now listed in the $8 to $10 range.

As of this writing, the Gary Vee Direct 360 card is the only official Bowman rookie card for Duran and two minor league cards from the Salem Red Sox and New York Penn League (from his time in 2018 with the Lowell Spinners). Duran is definitely an intriguing prospect and I like his potential, but I tend to put my faith in FanGraphs scouting ratings. Could Duran blow away his ratings and ride his speed all the way to the top? He certainly could. Only time will tell.

Boston Red Sox Cards - 1964 Topps “Sox Sockers” Carl Yastrzemski and Chuck Schilling

9/12/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

Even most casual baseball fans know who Carl Yastrzemski is, one of the greatest Boston Red Sox players ever. But on this 1964 Topps card entitled “Sox Sockers” who is this he’s sharing the card with? That’s the Red Sox second baseman at the time, the slick fielding Chuck Schilling.

Far as I know, Chuck Schilling is of no relation to the much more famous pitcher Curt Schilling. What I do know with great certainty is that Chuck Schilling was not a socker. OK, he did hit 8 home runs in 1963, with a .234 batting average and .610 OPS… 1963 was actually the last time Chuck would be above replacement level.

Meanwhile, Yaz had an awesome 1963, winning his first batting title and leading the American League in hits, doubles, walks, and OBP. It was also Yaz’s first All-Star nod. Schilling hit those 8 HR… and was worth 1 WAR with the glove. The poor OPS wasn’t enough to make Schilling valuable though. He was worth a mere 0.2 WAR in 146 games. He’d been about just as good with the glove in 1962, but even worse with the bat.

That all being said, Topps did have reason to believe that Schilling may eventually find his stroke at the major league level. After all, Schilling did bat .340 in the D league (today's A ball) and .314 at AAA. Those are obviously good marks. That offensive potential never came to be realized, but you can understand their optimism based on those performances.

However, Chuck Schilling DID have one very good season in MLB. That was his rookie year in 1961. Despite a mere .666 OPS, Schilling did have a .340 on-base percentage in a league-leading 737 plate appearances that year. His baseball stats didn’t look bad at all for a defensive-minded second baseman either: .259 batting average, 5 HR, 62 RBI, plus 7 stolen bases. However, he was caught 6 times, so his stolen bases weren’t so valuable.

But where Schilling really shined in 1961 was with the glove. He led the league in assists at second base, 2nd in double plays turned, and was worth a whopping SIXTEEN runs above average by Total Zone at the keystone. Obviously, that final stat led the league. Had they been awarded at the time, Schilling would’ve won the Gold Glove, and it would’ve been entirely deserved. His defensive WAR? 1.9!

Unfortunately, Schilling never really developed with the bat. Part of that was a wrist injury suffered in 1962. At least in 1963 his 25 doubles and 8 HR gave him some offensive value. By 1964, he simply was too much of a liability with the bat and his play in the field began to suffer. He sort of rebounded as a bench player in 1965 before being traded after the season to the Minnesota Twins. He’d be on the Twins roster to start 1966 - as rosters were allowed to have 28 players until May 15. But, when the rosters reverted to 25 men, he retired rather than be forced to accept a minor league assignment.

Chuck Schilling did OK for himself after that, teaching high-school math on Long Island and playing competitive softball all the way until he was 69. As of 2019, Chuck Schilling is still with us. Had Schilling not suffered that wrist injury, it’s likely he would’ve stuck around as a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman for quite a few years. Fortunately, we have this and other baseball cards to remember his career by.

Thanks for the memories, Chuck Schilling!

Red Sox 2019-2020 Offseason Outlook: J.D. Martinez

9/9/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

After their loss to the Yankees on September 8th, 2019, the Red Sox saw their playoff odds drop down to 0.4%. Being 17.5 games out of the American League East Division Lead and 8 games out of the second Wild Card spot, Boston fired team president of operations Dave Dombrowski. To me, and many other observers, the firing appears like a bit of an overreaction to an overall winning effort. But, it certainly sends a message to the rest of the organization after a very disappointing season.

With various injuries crippling some key players on both the pitching staff and in the lineup, there’s certainly been a lot of negativity surrounding the team. But, there have been many positives. One of those is the continued production of J.D. Martinez. Looking ahead to the off-season, the fate of their designated hitter (and occasional outfielder) J.D. Martinez is one of the biggest questions. That’s because the team's best hitter in 2019 can opt out of the final three years of his deal in each of the next three offseasons. If that happens, the Red Sox may have no choice but to say goodbye.

Due to massive financial commitments to Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi, there isn't going to be much money to go around. The Sox already have to consider arbitration raises to Betts and Bradley Jr, and Xander Bogaerts new (albeit, well deserved) pay raise. Even with Porcello's $21 million and other significant salaries like Moreland and Pearce coming off the books, there's still not much money to go around.

Because of these massive commitments, the new Red Sox committee of baseball operations has a big decision to make regarding the DH. Whether he opts out or not, JD Martinez has a $22 million Annual Average Value (AAV) salary to consider. So, let’s play General Manager and see what the Red Sox could do and the various scenarios that could play out.

Is J.D. Martinez Worth His Contract?

So far, absolutely. Through 592 Plate Appearances in 2019, here are J.D. Martinez’s numbers:

Actual: 308/.384/.577/.398 wOBA (top 5% of league), 35 HR, 31 2B
Statcast expected stats: .310 batting average, .582 slugging percentage,.410 expected wOBA (top 3% of league),.489 expected wOBA on contact (top 4% of league)
Defense: -6 DRS, -3 Outs Above Average (StatCast), 313 innings played

According to FanGraphs, J.D. Martinez’s 3.2 WAR in 2019 is worth $25.5 million on the open market. That’s at each “win above replacement” being worth about $8 million. So, this is under the assumption that a league average player could expect about $16 million a year on the open market. That’s a far cry from the $46.9 million JD was “worth” in 2018. Still, if the season ended today, JD will have “earned” $72.4 of his $110 million contract in just two out of five years. The season isn’t yet over, so he could easily improve those numbers.

This means that if the Red Sox just get one more 3 WAR season out of J.D., he’s essentially been worth his deal. That means that this signing was a great one for the Sox. Not only that, JD has become one of the team leaders.

Let’s take a look at his ZiPS projections for the next two years:

2020: .285/.356/.547, 32 HR, 3 WAR
2021: .281/.350/.524, 28 HR, 2.3 WAR

We can assume that 2022 will be below league-average. But, yes, the Red Sox would be fine if he doesn’t opt out. Right?

Scenario #1: JD Martinez Doesn’t Opt Out and Remains for 2019

The interesting thing about JD Martinez’s contract is that he has an opt-out clause he can activate not just after 2019, but also after 2020, and after 2021. Of course, there are some interesting names on the free agent market for this offseason. But none of them are anywhere near the hitter than Martinez has been.

Yes, Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion could be free agents. But the Twins will happily take back Cruz for his $12 million option and I can’t really see the Yankees turning down Edwin’s $20 million, although he’s no JD. The other best power hitters are Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon, but they still could resign with their current teams. There’s also Justin Smoak, who’s probably better than his 2019 numbers look.

So, there’s a good chance JD opts out. There are likely greener pastures, and the 2020 free agent class may only add Yasmani Grandal, Anthony Rizzo, and Mike Moustakas for impact hitters. But, let’s say he stays. With the core still in place, if a couple of young players step up and Sale, Price, and Eovaldi stay healthy, there’s a chance this team makes another championship run. That could entice JD to stay. The Red Sox would probably be fine with that.

Scenario #2: JD Martinez Opts Out in 2019

Since JD is going to turn 33 in August 2020, that means JD won’t necessarily be as attractive to other teams. Teams are usually looking to get younger, and if he opts out after 2020, even with a good season, JD may not beat the remaining $42 million on his deal at that point. But the 2020 class outside of a few hitters isn’t exactly crowded. JD could probably beat the $62.5 million he currently has left.

If the Sox opt out, it’s very likely that they simply hold onto that money, turning to Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, and Bobby Dalbec to replace both him and Mitch Moreland. Travis is showing signs of developing into a better than league-average hitter. Chavis was showing the same before he got hurt. Dalbec may not be quite ready, either.

Of course, the Red Sox could also try to get value out of someone like Justin Smoak, who probably won’t be highly sought after. He’d probably be available for $8 million, or even less, considering his poor results this year. However, he’s still been a league-average hitter, plus StatCast reveals that his expected wOBA is a whopping 41 points higher than his actual results. Smoak has just been terrifically unlucky with a .228 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) because he has the best walk rate of his career.

The Sox very likely can't replace JD, but they could get a lot of it back for not much money. If he does opt out, the Sox will likely just extend a qualifying offer and hope to get a draft pick. There are some in-house options and potential DH type bargains.

Scenario #3: Red Sox do a trade and sign with JD Martinez

This isn't a scenario I've heard mentioned but there is an interesting though I've had with a trade and sign. Currently, JD has very limited value because of his three opt out clauses. But if the Red Sox decided they wanted to deal from a position of strength, they may offer JD a deal where they guarantee the money if he accepts a trade elsewhere, likely with a bonus attached to it. I don't know that JD is going to want to leave that way but you cant deny JD has significant trade value. The return likely wouldn't be great but it would free up significant payroll room.

This is also a "sell high" move. Do I think it will actually happen? Probably not. Would I explore it? As things stand right now, probably not. JD is unlikely to be an albatross in 2020 or 2021 and even if he is in 2022, by then things will be a lot more flexible financially.

However, this is where things get interesting. The Red Sox do NOT want to lose their superstar player after the 2020 season,Mookie Betts. Obviously, Betts is far more valuable to the Sox. The idea then is if you can free up money to guarantee a Betts mega deal and perhaps lock in Rafael Devers, you can take the short term hit in your offense.

My Take on JD Martinez

Personally, I'd JD Martinez wants to stay I would keep him. His bat is going to be extremely hard to replace. I would simply keep him. If a trade and sign became an option I would explore it.

However, consider this. The Red Sox don't have a ton of dead money going forward. The Sox only owe Pablo Sandoval $5 million. Dustin Pedroia is only owed about $13 million and the chance of him playing in 2020 is non zero. Rusney Castillo is owed $14 million but his contract doesn't count toward the luxury tax payroll due to being in AAA.

So, JD Martinez, unless he simply stops hitting, isn't hurting anyone. He's also a team leader, as I said before and that's an intangible you can't really put a dollar value on. Of course, if he opts out, there isn't any point in resigning him - unless his gamble doesn't work out and you get him back on a one year deal or something. The Sox need to keep Betts. But keeping JD gives Betts not only added incentive to sign because you're committed to winning, but because his salary is probably not going to stop that.

Also, if JD opts out after 2020, the Red Sox are going to just throw that money at Betts anyway. Or, another top free agent to replace his production if Betts leaves for “greener” pastures. I love JDM, but he’s a DH, and unfortunately for Martinez, those aren’t all that hard to replace - unless you’re Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. I think JDM could keep providing that level of production, but will the Sox pay a higher price than they already have? That’s highly doubtful.

What do you think the Red Sox should do with J.D. Martinez?

Jose Canseco: The Red Sox Years

9/8/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

In one of the better trades the Red Sox made in the 1990’s, the Red Sox traded speedy, defensive minded outfielder Otis Nixon and infielder Luis Ortiz to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Jose Canseco. Obviously, it was a bit of a salary dump, with the Rangers clearly thinking they could replace Canseco’s bat with defense. To be honest, anyone with a brain at that time probably saw this wouldn’t work out.

Otis Nixon actually had an OK year for the Rangers in 1995, although Total Zone didn’t love his defense (-4 runs below average). He did, however, post a very good .354 OBP, and stole 50 bases - albeit being caught 24 times. He was worth 1.3 WAR, which isn’t terrible, of course. Luis Ortiz was… awful. Nixon would move onto the Blue Jays for 1996, so really the Rangers just saved some money..

Jose Canseco’s Solid 1995 Season with the Red Sox

With one year left on Canseco’s contract, the Red Sox were happy to take on a guy who hit 31 HR in just 111 games during the strike-shortened 1994 season. They wouldn’t be disappointed as he would help anchor a Red Sox lineup that included Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Tim Naehring, Troy O’Leary, and Mike Greenwell (who was in his last season as an above-average regular). Canseco would hit 24 home runs with a .306 batting average, his highest since 1988. Canseco also reached an important milestone, as his final home run of the season off of Jesse Orosco was the 300th of his career.

The Red Sox would make the playoffs, making it Canseco’s first postseason trip in five years.However, Canseco would go 0-for-13, with 2 walks, in the 1995 American League Division Series. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise good season.

Jose Canseco’s Hot Start to 1996 Season, Followed by Back Trouble

The Red Sox would resign Canseco in 1996. It all started off well, and in 96 games he would hit 28 HR and hit .289/.400/.589. Back troubles would cause Canseco to miss all of August and most of September. In fact, Canseco hit 26 of his 28 homers before the All-Star break, and he wouldn’t even hit a home run after July 17th.

Still, in just 198 games between 1995 and 1996, Canseco was worth 5.6 WAR. I’d say that was more than worth a year of Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz…

Canseco Reunites with McGwire in Oakland, Red Sox Get Cash and “Wayback” Wasdin

After the 1996 season, Canseco would be reunited with “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire as he was traded back to the Oakland A’s for … “Wayback” John Wasdin & cash. While that sounds like a terrible trade, it actually would work out for the Red Sox in the long run. Despite his longball issues, Wasdin would overall be a useful pitcher. He’d eventually be a key part of a trade that brought Rolando Arrojo, Rick Croushore, and former Expo All-Star Mike Lansing to Boston. Lansing would be awful, and Croushore was ineffective in 5 games, but Arrojo was a nice find and put the Sox in the positive for that trade.

Of course, Canseco’s back troubles would linger in Oakland, but he’d still hit a few home runs along “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire. Then, of course, he’d put together a few more decent seasons, along with a monster season in Toronto in 1998, a very good season in Tampa Bay in 1999, and hung on in 2000 and 2001 to hit a few more home runs and still be a productive hitter when healthy.

My Thoughts on Jose Canseco’s Legacy

Of course, Jose Canseco is a very controversial figure in baseball. Canseco and his two books revealed the extent of the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) in baseball, which understandably upset a lot of people. Despite hitting 462 HR in his career with a very good 132 OPS+ over 17 years, Canseco will likely never get near the Hall of Fame for reasons that stretch beyond his own use of PEDs.

However, Jose Canseco remains a very popular figure in the baseball card hobby. Many collectors have created a sort of Cardboard Hall of Fame for Canseco and his cards are still highly sought after. Since his career began in the Junk Wax era and he was such a massively popular player in his time, there’s no shortage of Jose Canseco baseball cards to collect. Heck, Canseco continues to appear in current baseball card sets as recently as 2019! While he may never get a plaque at Cooperstown, Canseco will never be forgotten by the game of baseball.

...

P.S. Fun fact: Jose Canseco made his Major League pitching debut against, guess who, the RED SOX, in May of 1993. He gave up three runs on 2 hits and 3 walks...

Not so fun fact: Because of that pitching appearance, Canseco would need Tommy John surgery (elbow ligament replacement surgery) and miss the rest of the season. It also didn't help his back issues... Missing the rest of that season, and the extra damage to his already ailing back, also likely cost him the chance at 500 HR. What do you think?

The Year of Sonny Siebert - 1971 Red Sox

9/7/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

The Red Sox had some pretty good players back in the 1970’s. But, one you may not have heard nearly as much about was Sonny Siebert. A starting pitcher who was better known for his years with the Cleveland Indians, Siebert was mediocre in two of his four full seasons with the Red Sox. However, he was quite good in 1970, and won 15 games with a fine 3.44 ERA. He would be much better in 1971.

The Sox acquired Siebert along with Vicente Romo and Joe Azcue for Dick Ellsworth, Ken Harrelson, and Juan Pizarro. As Red Sox trades go, this was actually a good one for Boston. Azcue and Romo were replacement level, but Harrelson and Pizzaro only had one good year for Cleveland and Ellsworth never really did much after that. Pizzaro would have another good season later with the Cubs. Of course, that means the Red Sox won this trade, because although Siebert was mediocre in 1969 and 1973, he was quite good in between.

A lot went right for Sonny Siebert in 1971. Not only did he pitch very well, winning 16 games with a 2.91 ERA, but Sonny also had a great year with the BAT. That’s right, folks. American League pitchers still had to come to bat until 1973. What’s particularly incredible about Siebert’s 1971 season with the bat is that in no other season did he come close to being that good. In 1971, he hit .266/.289/.532 with 6 HR and 15 RBI. His career marks? .173/.204/.270 with 12 HR. Crazy fluke or not, it was a really nice year for Sonny.

Who Was the Best Red Sox Player in 1993? Danny Darwin!

9/5/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Red Sox Trivia Time! Who was the best Red Sox player in 1993 by Wins Above Replacement? If you guessed Roger Clemens, you’d be wrong. Heck, even if you’d guessed young shortstop John Valentin you still won’t be correct. It was a 37-year old starting pitcher. His name: Danny Darwin.

Along with Frank Viola and a young Aaron Sele, Danny Darwin helped pick up the Red Sox pitching staff from an unusually poor season from Roger Clemens. Yes, Clemens was about merely average in 1993. Unfortunately, despite a pretty good starting staff, Paul Quantrill kept losing games - despite actually being a pretty decent reliever for most of his career.

Also, despite Mo Vaughn having a good year, Mike Greenwell putting up one of his typically good years, and John Valentin being a very nice young player, the lineup wasn’t great. That’s with future Hall of Famer Andre Dawson at DH, being, sadly, rather mediocre. Those Red Sox finished 80-82 under Butch Hobson.

Of course, none of that was Danny Darwin’s fault.

Danny Darwin’s Career Before the Red Sox

Actually, Darwin had a very interesting career. He actually only made 371 starts in his career out of his 716 career appearances. He actually spent a good deal of his career in the bullpen and was bounced back and forth from the starting rotation and bullpen for most of his career. However, after a nice run with the Texas Rangers, he went to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he had one and a half above-average seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros. He pitched very well and returned as a free agent.

In Houston from 1986 to 1990, Darwin would be worth 13.4 WAR, 5.3 of that coming in his 1990 season when he won the NL ERA title with a 2.21 mark. Darwin started 17 games that year with 3 complete games while also finishing 14 games and saving 2 games. Still, the Astros saw fit to see him leave as a free agent. The Red Sox were only too happy to add the solid Darwin to their pitching staff.

Danny Darwin with the Red Sox

By the time he got to the Red Sox in 1991, the “Bonham Bullet” had already put together a pretty nice career as a “swingman” - a guy who worked both as a starter and a reliever. Unfortunately, Darwin’s first season with the Red Sox didn’t go so well. In 12 starts, he delivered a 5.16 ERA while dealing with shoulder problems and battling pneumonia. Fortunately for both the Red Sox and Darwin, this would not be a free agent bust.

In 1992, Darwin rebounded with one of his typical swingman seasons. He started 15 games and finished 21 more, appearing in 51 total games over the season. Overall, his efforts were worth 2.6 WAR. But where Darwin truly excelled in 1992 was in the starting rotation in the season’s second half. He pitched only one game out of the bullpen. In his 15 starts, he had a 3.50 ERA and 2 complete games. It was a precursor to his best season in the major leagues, 1993.

In 1993, Darwin started 34 games, pitching 2 complete games, 1 of them a shutout. Despite a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.068 WHIP, his 4.29 FIP was a harbinger of things to come. Darwin had a really nice season, but things would go south after that.

In the strike shortened 1994 season, the wheels fell off for Darwin. He started 13 games, and while he went 7-5, had a miserable 6.30 ERA. He was up and down and had a couple of clunkers mixed in between brilliant performances. But arm trouble led to him blowing up in June, after which he was shut down. It looked like the beginning of the end for Darwin, and it was certainly the end of Darwin’s Red Sox career.

Danny Darwin’s Last Hurrahs

After an awful 1995 season split between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers, Darwin caught on with the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 40. He actually pitched pretty well with a 3.02 ERA in 19 starts! Darwin was good enough to net relief pitcher Rich Loiselle from the Houston Astros at the trade deadline. That trade actually was a win for Pittsburgh, who got a very good rest of 1996, a solid rookie campaign as closer in 1997, and decent returns in 1998 before he forgot where the strike zone was and was never good again. Meanwhile, the Astros, who’d been happy to reacquire Darwin, watched him struggle and get released at season’s end.

But, that wasn’t the end for Darwin. He’d catch on with the White Sox in 1997, pitching 21 games, 17 of them starts. His 4.13 ERA was a bit of a mirage, but it was good enough for the Giants to acquire him along with Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez in a trade that famously didn’t work out well for the Giants. The White Sox ended up with a solid closer in Keith Foulke and a decent set-up man in Bob Howry. Darwin and Alvarez would both be mediocre, Hernandez would be fine, but Alvarez and Hernandez would end up with the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays next season.

Darwin would hang around with the Giants for 1998, getting into 33 games, 25 of them starts, and wasn’t particularly good at all. In fact, Darwin was “worth” -1.1 WAR that season. That was the end of Darwin’s playing days. However, Darwin has hung around the game and as recent as 2019 is still a minor league pitching coach.

Danny Darwin’s Career Overview

Overall, Danny Darwin was worth 39.8 WAR over 21 seasons. That includes some really awful seasons where his WAR totals were negative. He was actually significantly better as a reliever, although overall he was a decent slightly better than league-average starting pitcher when he got the call.

Starter: 371 starts, 2396 ⅓ innings, 4.04 ERA, 53 complete games, 9 shutouts, 2.2 K/BB ratio
Reliever: 345 appearances, 620 ⅓ innings, 3.06 ERA, 171 games finished, 32 saves, 2.29 K/BB ratio

The obvious knock against Darwin were his platoon splits.

Vs Right-Handed Batters: 6216 PAs,.234/.281/.361 - .641 OPS

Vs Left-Handed Batters: 6500 PAs, .277/.338/.437 - .775 OPS

In today’s analytically-driven game, Darwin probably would’ve been limited against left-handed batters and probably relieved much more than he started. It’s also possible he would’ve faced fewer batters per season, which may have saved him some of the arm trouble. Darwin was indeed “Dr. Death” on right-handed batters and more analytically-inclined deployment may have made Darwin one of the greatest swingmen of all time.

Of course, Darwin’s career was just fine as it was. He gave Red Sox fans a great 1993 effort and along with his above-average work in 1992 made that 4 year contract at least mostly worth it. He’s still in the game today passing on his extensive knowledge of pitching to younger pitchers. Here’s to a great baseball career that hasn’t even yet ended. Thanks for all your efforts, Danny!.

From the Steroid Era to the Juiced Ball Era - Ten Years as a Hardcore Baseball Fan

9/5/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Pedro's key rookie card still underpriced AF...

My buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping and I were talking about the single-season home run record, the steroid era, and more. That conversation led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. Very soon, I'll be writing up some pieces on my thoughts on McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, and the lot. Surprisingly, I've never put my thoughts about them down, and I probably should!

But first, I decided to do a bit of a “bloggy” post today, talking about my thoughts about ten years as a serious baseball fan and how my true love of the game comes from the art of pitching.

The year was 1998. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were slamming home runs everywhere. It seemed like a lot of guys were slamming home runs. After baseball had suffered through the strike shortened 1994 season, no World Series, and a delayed 1995 season, the sport needed a shot in the arm. As it turned out, the two biggest sluggers may have taken some shots, and probably not in the arm.

But, the reason I became interested in baseball is not the home run race. Actually, I was only casually interested in basketball back then. Baseball didn’t really appeal to me much. What caught my attention was a new pitcher on the hometown Red Sox who was making headlines. I didn’t really know much at all about baseball at the time. But, what I did know that what this young ace pitcher named Pedro Martinez was doing was special.

I watched a few games in 1998. Of course, the Red Sox were competitive that season and fan favorite Mo Vaughn was still in his prime. Nomar Garciaparra was in his second full season and easily one of the best hitters in the game. The Sox wouldn’t get very far in the playoffs, but the way that Pedro was able to just baffle batters intrigued me. They were a pretty fun team to watch, too.

But, I didn’t really start watching baseball seriously until after the 1999 All-Star Game. You know, the one where Pedro struck out Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, and Sammy Sosa in the first inning, and both Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell. Matt Williams would only be on base thanks to an error and be caught stealing on a strike-em-out, throw-em-out double play.

After those two innings of that All-Star Game, I was hooked. I loved how this relatively small guy could not only blow fastballs by these mighty hitters, but fool them with offspeed pitches looking stupid, too. For me, pitching was the more fascinating part of the game, and to this day, I prefer pitcher’s duels. “Good pitching” beats “good hitting” they say, and it’s true.

For many baseball fans, it seems like home runs have become the most important thing for a player to do. For me, watching all these big, bulky guys hack away just to hit the ball over the fence seemed silly to me. Sure, you had guys like Mo Vaughn that were just built like that. But I preferred to watch the more athletic and dynamic players like Garciaparra, O’Leary (people forget how good Troy was!), and John Valentin. I know most fans loved McGwire, Sosa, and the other big sluggers. But I preferred to just watch Pedro make batters look silly.

In an era in 2019 where the ball is jumping off the bat more quickly than ever, quality pitching is becoming harder to find. Just look at the 2019 Red Sox. They can hit and light up the scoreboard without any trouble most nights. But, the trouble is, so can the opposing teams. The Red Sox’s best pitcher is Chris Sale, who when he’s right, is probably as good as Pedro was. But Sale isn’t right, right now, and the only other truly good performing pitcher on the current team is Eduardo Rodriguez. I don’t really love slugfests, even though it’s fun to be on the winning side of one. I miss the days of consistent pitching keeping the team in the game so the offense could do their job.

Of course, many times when Pedro took the mound, the Red Sox offense would suddenly go silent. But, that’s because Pedro was just so good that the opposing pitcher would do his best to try and match him. That’s what Pedro’s competitiveness did to a game - it made everyone else just try to be a little bit better. Most of the time, the other team failed. That struggle to score runs always appealed to me more so than how many home runs were hit.

Not to say I don’t love home runs, of course. But, I’d love to see a little balance come back to the game. Fortunately, the game is actually blessed with quite a few very good pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke are likely all headed for the Hall of Fame. Stephen Strasburg has really turned a corner and become the pitcher everyone thought he would be. Chris Sale is one of the best when he’s healthy. Heck, Patrick Corbin has suddenly turned into an incredible pitcher for the Nationals, too. And, of course, who can forget Gerrit Cole becoming dominant for the Houston Astros?

The best pitching teams right now are the Houston Astros (Verlander/Cole/Greinke) and the Nationals (Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin). To me, the perfect World Series would be these two teams pitted against one another. Of course, the Dodgers, with their own Hall of Fame bound ace, young hurler Walker Buehler, and a solid staff of effective young and old hurlers have a good chance to the the last ones standing. I always side with pitching, but it’s hard to ignore what the Yankees, Dodgers, and Twins are doing this year bludgeoning everyone to death.

In my ten years as a baseball fan, I’ve been delving into the stats and trying to better understand the game I’ve come to love so dearly. Right now, I feel like the game needs a young phenom pitcher - or several - to absolutely dominate. I think there are a few candidates in the game right now. I don’t know who it will be that rises above the others, but as with everything in sports, offense and defense have a way of eventually overtaking the other.

I will say, though, that today’s biggest stars are definitely on the offensive side of the ball. Honestly, I’m OK with that. But for me, I’ll always be a sucker for a pitcher’s duel. I’m hoping we see a few of those in the upcoming MLB playoffs. For me, an Astros and Nationals world series with the Nats finally coming out on top (and giving that Expos fan base a sigh of relief) would be the best thing that could happen to baseball right now.

Of course, it will probably be Yankees and Dodgers, and what is more classic than that?

Who do you think will win the World Series this year? Do you think baseball is in a good place right now, or is offense just too nuts right now?

Is Rick Porcello As Bad As He Looks in 2019?

9/3/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

It’s safe to say that overall, the trade of Rick Porcello to the Boston Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Wilson, and some other guy has worked out just fine for the Sox. Porcello pitched better than that 4.92 ERA would suggest in 2015. Then, after signing a 4-year, $82 million contract, In two of his four years in Boston, Porcello was excellent. Rick even won the Cy Young Award in 2016, which was deserved, and pitched better than the raw numbers would suggest in 2018.

Then there was 2017, which many will argue - myself included - was a fluke. Nothing seemed to go right for the Red Sox in 2017. A 4.65 ERA was propped up by a ridiculous HR/9 rate (38 HR in 203 ⅓ innings). He was at worst league average that year. His strikeout to walk ratio was fine (8.01 K/9 to 2.12 BB/9) and a BABIP of .324 left room for positive regression. Porcello was fine again in 2018, although not nearly the ace-level pitcher he was in 2016.

So, What’s With Rick Porcello in 2019?

But 2019? It’s been an absolute mess for Porcello. StatCast has pretty much backed up the mediocrity, as noted in this mid-August article about Porcello’s free agent prospects on MLB Trade Rumors. However, it is fair to note that he’s not being hit quite as hard as he was in 2017.
His wOBA of .342 is similar to his .348 mark in 2017. But his expected wOBA based on average exit velocity is actually .330, compared to his .345 mark in 2017.

The real concern? It’s Porcello’s strikeout rate, which has fallen to 17.7%, certainly a low mark for him. To his credit, he’s not walking the world at 6.4%, but it’s still high for him. Hs HR/9 rate of 1.57 is second only to the awful 1.68 mark of 2017. Keep in mind this is a guy who kept the ball in the ballpark most of his career; of course, Porcello pitched most of his early career at Comerica Park.

What’s the Future of Rick Porcello in Boston?

The Red Sox did have Porcello approach them about a contract extension before the season. Those talks never seemed more than preliminary. With Porcello hitting the open market after the season, the Sox free up $21 million of payroll. Even with a good September, the contract looks like an overall flop from a results standpoint.

By Baseball Reference WAR:

2015: 0.5 WAR (pre-extension)
2016: 4.8 WAR (Cy Young Award)
2017: -0.2 WAR (Just a mirage?)
2018: 3.1 WAR (Solid pitcher on a World Series Winner)
2019: 0.9 WAR (Why…?)

Is 9.6 WAR over the extension worth $82 million? Perhaps, barely. The 2015 results certainly weren’t great. But when we look at FanGraphs, who looks at FIP-based WAR and not runs allowed WAR, things look significantly different.

2015: 1.7 WAR (not awful)
2016: 5.1 WAR (CY YOUNG!)
2017: 2.0 WAR (League Average skills)
2018: 2.4 WAR (Good, but not as good as you think…)
2019: 1.5 WAR (Eating the innings…)

Suddenly you’re at 11 WAR for the extension and the trade in 2015 looks a lot better. Still, Cespedes was excellent in 2015, so that trade didn’t really work out. But, it wasn’t as bad as it looked from the results. Dombrowski was right to stick with the young hurler he knew well from Detroit. It just didn’t work out as well as anyone would’ve hoped.

Can Porcello Still Be an Effective Starting Pitcher?

At only 30 years old, it’s likely Porcello has a few more seasons left in him. But outside of his curveball, he’s getting hit pretty hard. His sinker has been a stinker. His average fastball velocity is slowly trending the wrong way. A little retooling of his arsenal and a home ballpark friendlier to pitchers could be in his future. It’s likely Porcello has to take a one-year deal - probably with incentives - to rebuild his value.

Someone may rekindle the magic Porcello had in 2016 when his fastball, slider, and changeup were all above average pitches. Maybe he’ll tinker with a cut fastball or splitter to get some weaker contact or whiffs, or both. There’s still a good pitcher in there somewhere. I just doubt that it will be the Red Sox taking another chance. But, Porcello does love it in Boston and he’s well liked by his teammates, so we’ll see. His career isn’t over yet.

Jason Varitek - The Red Sox Team Captain and His 2004 Career Year

9/2/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

The last team captain of the Boston Red Sox, Jason Varitek spent parts of 15 seasons with Boston. He made his major league debut with a base hit in his first and only major league at-bat in 1997. Varitek was acquired by the Red Sox along with pitcher Derek Lowe in the infamous trade for relief pitcher Heathcliff Slocumb. It’s not even close who won that deal, even if Lowe had never done anything. Varitek was the starting catcher in 10 different seasons for the Red Sox and only wasn’t in 2001 due to injury.

Varitek was also one of the most popular players in recent Red Sox history. He was loved by the pitching staff and anecdotally was an above-average defensive catcher. While he was a bit below average in throwing out opposing base stealers, I can say that he worked with some pitchers that were notoriously slow to the plate. The defensive metrics see him as an overall defensive negative, but a lot of those negatives came from his brutal final season in 2011. From all the years I watched him play, I’d say he was at worst perfectly average behind the dish - but above average as a pitch receiver.

Jason Varitek Was Mr. Average

While being average is really not exciting, in baseball being average is extremely valuable. If you look at Jason Varitek’s 162 game average, you’ll see that would he hit 20 HR and drove in 79 RBI in an average season. Those are solid baseball card stats, especially for a catcher. Because of his solid work behind the dish, though, those league-average offensive stats allowed him to be an above-average regular by WAR in 6 out of his 15 seasons.

2001: 1.4 WAR (in only 51 games)
2002: 2.1 WAR (132 games)
2003: 3.0 WAR (142 games)
2004: 4.0 WAR (137 games)
2005: 3.9 WAR (133 games)
2007: 2.3 WAR (131 games)

He wasn’t bad in his first full season in 1999, either, with 1.9 WAR in 144 games. But, Varitek did have some poor seasons with the bat. His rookie year of 1998 wasn’t too hot, and neither was 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008, or 2009. But with a career OPS+ of 99, you can see that on the balance, he was perfectly average offensively. The good news is that Varitek’s dWAR (WAR from Defense) is a positive 8.8 for his career. So, in fact, Varitek was ever so slightly better than average, before you count his “intangibles” such as team leadership.

Why Jason Varitek and His 2004 Season Were His Career Best

Most fans may believe 2005 was Varitek’s best year in the Major Leagues. He won the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and made his second American League All-Star Game roster! OK, he did deserve the Silver Slugger.with a 122 OPS+. However, 2005 was also one of Varitek’s worst defensive seasons if you believe the defensive metrics from Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved. Still, his overall contributions were worthy of an All-Star appearance and were worth 3.9 WAR to the Red Sox.

Of course, in 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series for the first time in 86 years! Best season ever!

OK, that’s not why, but yes, Varitek was a big part of the Red Sox success that season. Despite no accolades, he was worth a career-high 4.0 WAR to the regular season 2004 Sox. He also hit a career high .296 and a career high on-base percentage of .390. His offensive contributions amounted to a 121 OPS+. Defensively, Varitek was 3 runs above average by Total Zone’s metrics and perfectly average by DRS.

In the postseason, Varitek was OK in the Division Series. But, he was a major contributor in the classic ALCS against the Yankees. While Varitek was a non-factor in the World Series, it didn’t matter.

Speaking of the postseason, in 2007, Varitek’s bat didn’t show up in the Division Series, but it did in the League Championship against the Indians and in the World Series versus the Rockies. So, Varitek really did help the Sox win their 2nd ring in 4 years.

Jason Varitek’s Legacy

Various injuries and trouble in his personal life did affect Varitek’s on-field performance at times. But, Varitek was loved by his teammates and is anecdotally one of the more underrated catchers of his era. In fact, I can’t think of another catcher that was as consistently league-average as Varitek.

The only ones better I can think of offensively are Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mike Piazza. “Pudge” and Piazza are Hall of Famers and Posada has a case for a plaque. “Pudge” was easily the best defensively of his era. Joe Mauer was obviously great early in his career, too, which started towards the end of Tek’s own career.

Sure, Tek isn’t a Hall of Famer. But, he did have a very nice peak and hit better than you’d expect from your typical catcher.The defensive metrics also mostly show that Varitek was in fact a very good catcher on defense. We don’t have pitch framing metrics for that time period, but I can almost guarantee he would’ve been among the league leaders. In fact, had Varitek not played in the same era as Pudge Rodriguez, it’s likely he’d be remembered as one of the best of his era without question, behind only Jorge Posada.

It’s an old baseball saying that great teams are great up the middle. So, it’s no surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees had two of the best catchers in the game during their respective eras. Sure, Varitek didn’t come close to Hall of Fame standards. But, he was at least the #3 or #4 overall catcher in the American League in his peak years. Catchers like Tek don’t come along everyday, and you’d be hard-pressed to ever expect another one to come along.

Trot Nixon - An Unsung Hero of the 1999 to 2005 Red Sox

8/30/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Christopher Trotman Nixon, better known as “Trot,” was a first-round selection of the Boston Red Sox. Despite how highly Nixon was regarded, his first few seasons in the minor leagues weren’t all that exciting. Nixon did get called up to the Major Leagues in 1996, and got 2 hits in 4 at-bats. His 1997 season at AAA Pawtucket was merely OK, although he did hit 20 HR and steal 11 bases.

But, it wasn’t until 1998 when he broke out at AAA in a big way, hitting .310/.400/.513 with 23 HR and stealing 26 bases. Trot was rewarded with a cuppa coffee in 1998 and didn’t do much to impress. The 1999 season, however, his true rookie season, would be a very good one.

As 1999 was the first season in which I personally began to watch MLB on a regular basis, Trot Nixon was a young star that I enjoyed watching play. In 126 games, Nixon hit .270/.357/.472 with 15 HR, 51 RBI, and stole 3 bases. Those Red Sox teams didn’t really run, after all. Also, despite 7 errors, Nixon flashed the leather with defense worth 15 runs above average thanks to his above-average range.

Trot finished only 9th in Rookie of the Year voting, although it was a pretty stacked year in 1999. His own teammate, Brian Daubach, in his own first full season finished 4th. It was also Carlos Lee’s rookie year, although he didn’t outperform Trot, although Chris Singleton, who finished 6th in voting, actually did. The winner that year was Carlos Beltran, which was honestly a smart decision, especially considering the career Beltran would have.

Trot Nixon’s Solid Numbers and 2003 Career Year

Because of various injuries, Trot Nixon never would display his once above-average speed in the major leagues. So, while he was once thought as a 20 HR/20 SB threat, that never came to be. What did come to be was that Trot translated his spectacular plate discipline and above-average power to above-average major league performance. Injuries would also limit his range in the field, but he’d still be an above-average defender overall for the most part until the tail end of his career.

However, from 1999 to 2005, Trot was never a below-average player. Keep in mind that 2 WAR is a roughly average regular in the major leagues playing a full season.

1999: 2.9 WAR in 124 games
2000: 2,5 WAR in 123 games
2001: 3.8 WAR in 148 games
2002: 2.9 WAR in 152 games
2003: 5.1 WAR in 134 games
2004: 0.9 WAR in 48 games
2005: 3.4 WAR in 123 games

Trot’s best year was 2003, a year that many expected the Red Sox to make the World Series. Of course, Aaron Boone made sure that didn’t happen… But Trot posted a career best slash line of .306/.396/.578 for a 152 wRC+ with 28 HR and 87 RBI. Those results were partially fueled by a slightly high .334 BABIP, but he did have a truly good year. He also hit very well in the playoffs and may have been the ALCS MVP that year had the Red Sox not been eliminated.

Nixon wasn’t a below average player until 2006, when he posted only 1.1 WAR in 114 games. Injuries finally caught up to him and he was never the same player again. He was truly awful after leaving the Red Sox for the Indians in 2007. and didn’t fare too well in 2008 with the Mets, either.

Trot Nixon’s Ability to Drive in Runs

There were a couple of knocks against Trot Nixon that limited his overall numbers. Firstly, he was dreadful against left-handed pitching (.630 career OPS vs LHP, ..872 career OPS vs RHP). The other major knock against him was that in the “clutch” it seemed like Trot was more likely to draw a walk rather than get a big hit. This may sound like a silly knock in today’s game where walks are much more highly valued. But, it is true that in high leverage situations, Trot hit just .256/.348/.433. That’s compared to .290/.380/.480 in medium leverage plate appearances and .270/.359/.466 in low-leverage PA’s.

However, I argue Trot was much more “clutch” than some commentators suggest. After all, Trot had 223 RBi in 864 plate appearances and 711 at-bats. That means Trot had an RBI for every 3.87 plate appearances and an RBI for every 3.19 at-bats. Those ratios are pretty spectacular. So, he made the hits he did get count! Trot was also an extremely good hitter in the 8th inning, with a career .879 OPS in that inning.

The reason he has a poor reputation in the clutch? He was below average in the 9th inning, hitting merely .220/.332/.390 (.722 OPS), and he hit a dreadful .200/.304/.300 (.604 OPS) in extra innings. Those things being said, not all of those 9th inning plate appearances were high leverage situations and 71 PA’s in extra innings is an awfully small sample size. He also has positive career marks in WPA (Win Probability Added) and WPA/LI (Win Probability Added in Late Innings). The one downside is that his “Clutch” score was negative in every season except 2004 and 2005.

So, was Trot Nixon bad in the clutch? Perhaps, as far as the leverage indexes are concerned. What I can say is that Trot helped his teammates trot across home plate in high leverage situations on a regular basis. In that way, I’ve always felt he was underrated.

Trot Nixon’s Time with the Indians & Mets, Retirement, and Career Overview

Somewhat ironically, it was Trot Nixon who played for the Indians that the Red Sox came back to beat down three games to one in the 2007 ALCS. After a lousy regular season, Nixon was actually a good contributor for the Indians in the ALCS. It was a strange feeling for him, especially when he came back to Boston, where he received a very warm welcome.

Nixon retired before the 2009 season after a subpar stint with the Mets and a failed comeback in early 2009 with the Brewers. Trot went home to Wilmington, North Carolina to spend more time with his two children. He now serves as a co-host for a high school football highlight show called “The 5th Quarter” for a local channel.

As it turned out, the Red Sox turned to J.D. Drew to replace Nixon. Somewhat ironically, Drew took Nixon’s #7 with the Sox. While it was a frustrating five years for Drew, who dealt with many nagging injuries, overall he was actually a very similar player to Nixon. Drew, of course, had a great 2007 playoffs and helped the Sox win the World Series. But, replacing the popular Nixon, he never really endeared himself to fans.

Trot Nixon wasn’t just a fan favorite for his consistent production, often underappreciated by non-Red Sox fans. He was a great teammate and his explosive temper actually endeared him to fans. Most of all, Boston fans loved him for his hustle and enthusiasm for the game. He constantly was getting his uniform dirty making great plays and hard slides on the basepaths. Trot became the inspiration for the term “Boston Dirt Dogs.”

Had Nixon been a bit better against left-handed pitching, he may have posted even better numbers; the Red Sox often spelled Nixon against lefty starters for guys like Gabe Kapler, Wily Mo Pena, and other lefty mashers. Still, from a sabermetric standpoint, Nixon was an above average player for a long time, even playing through injuries and ineffectiveness against same-side pitching.

Trot, hope you’re having a great time with your new career and with your family!

Rich Garces - "El Guapo" and His Career Year as Boston Red Sox Setup Man

8/29/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

While not eligible for my Junk Wax Dynasty series, Rich Garces himself did in fact begin his career in the infamous era of overproduction for sports cards. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for Garces, setup men don't get much love at all in the sports card hobby. Who they do get love from are the sports fans, and that's what matters most, right?

There are many reasons for me to write about Rich Garces. One is that he and I share both a first AND middle initial, although his middle name is different. As 1999, Garces' breakout year, was my first full year following Major League baseball and my hometown Red Sox, his remarkable performances stand out in my memory.

Rich Garces and his Early Career

Garces actually had two cups of coffee with the Minnesota Twins in 1990 and 1993. He certainly didn't embarrass himself, but the Twins never really gave him a chance. But because of his decent cuppa in 1990, Donruss, Fleer Ultra, Upper Deck, Bowman, Stadium Club, and Topps all gave him a rookie card. Topps even named him a Future Star. Despite Topps having a terrible track record with those Future Star predictions, they were actually somewhat correct in this case.

The Twins released Garces in October 1994 and he caught on with the Chicago Cubs in 1995. Remarkably, he pitched fairly well in 7 games, before being put on waivers and claimed by the Marlins. He didn't pitch so well for them. So, he would be released by the Florida team and find his way to the Red Sox.

Rich Garces and the Red Sox (1996 to 1998)

In 1996, Garces got his first real taste of the major leagues after impressing at AAA. It wasn't pretty, but he managed to post 0.4 WAR. He certainly didn't embarrass himself. The performance was good enough for the Pacific Card Company to name him one of their Gems of the Diamond for the 1997 Pacific Prisms set. Unfortunately in 1997, Garces pitched very little at the major league level and was roughly replacement level when he did. But, his spectacular results at AAA prompted the Red Sox to give him another chance.

Garces was actually not too bad in 1998 with the Red Sox. While he posted unimpressive numbers in AAA, he got his chance in MLB. He was pitching in one of the biggest years of offense that baseball has ever seen. Garces actually posted a career high 0.7 WAR with a solid 3.33 ERA in 30 games. Of course, like had happened so much already to Garces, he found himself released at the end of the season. Of course, the Sox would change their minds and resign him.

Rich Garces as a Premiere Setup Man

Garces actually spent a good chunk of the 1999 season at Triple-A being dominant. It would take the Sox a bit to realize that keeping him down was probably stupid. When he finally came up to stay, the portly Garces was already a fan favorite. He would respond with his best performance yet for a playoff bound Red Sox team.

Particularly astonishing about Garces was his ability to stifle left-handed batters even as a right-handed pitcher. Despite not having much of a fastball, Garces made a living as a relief pitcher with a sharp curve ball and splitter. That splitter would be his bread and butter pitch at his peak.

Despite his 1.55 ERA in 1999, it would not be his career year. Despite an ERA of 3.25 in 2000, Garces was actually much better, posting a 2.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to Baseball Reference in 64 games that season. Whether you believe in WAR or not, his 2.0 mark along with his 1.7 WAR in 1999 is actually a fair representation of his actual value to those Red Sox teams.

Somewhat tragically for the hobby, there were no major card releases for Garces in either 1999 or 2000. We'd have to wait for 2001 Topps and Topps Chrome to collect Garces in a mainstream release again. He did have a couple of minor league cards and a 2000 Red Sox Photocard.

The Twilight of Rich Garces' Career

For the rest of his career, Garces was a decent, if unspectacular middle reliever. Even in 2001 for the Red Sox, he wasn't quite the same, although he was worth 1.1 WAR in 62 games. After a dreadful showing in 2002, Garces was done in Major League Baseball, although he attempted a couple comebacks before retiring as a player to become an independent league pitching coach.

Thanks for the memories, El Guapo!

...

Find some great Rich Garces baseball cards on Amazon!

Boston Red Sox Cards - The Topps Heritage High Number Xander Bogaerts Rookie Card!

8/27/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

I'm personally a BIG fan of the Topps Heritage product. While it may not have the big hits of Bowman Paper & Chrome, the card designs are classic and the sets have some fairly nice rookie cards. I've had my eye on the 2014 Xander Bogaerts High Number Rookie Card #H550 for a little bit.

In early August 2019, this High Number rookie card had a PSA 10 pop of 189 and was selling for $20 to $25, with a high of $34. Raw, they sold for $10 to $15 like nuts on eBay! Interestingly, there are only 36 graded by BGS - one graded BGS 9, 31 graded BGS 9.5, and 4 graded BGS 10. But, by late August, there were only a few raw sales around $10 and very few of the PSA 10s were being listed. The only ones you’d find listed were anywhere from $60 to $75!

With Bogaerts easily one of the best, if not the best, current shortstop in the game, it's no surprise that people flocked to grab this affordable rookie card. Clearly, people decided to hold onto their copies. I expect PSA will grade more than a few of these before 2019 is out and with Bogaerts’ superstar play, it’s likely this will be the next of his rookie cards to see solid gains.

The other of Xander Bogaerts’ more popular rookie cards as far as grading is his 2012 Bowman Prospects card and its Chrome counterpart, both of which have exploded in price since June 2019. There are 159 PSA 10 graded examples of the Bowman “Paper” Prospect card. But, for some reason, I can’t find the population of the Chrome cards - PSA apparently omitted it from its POP report for that set. What I can say that the same card has 204 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint examples from Beckett, so the PSA pop of the Chrome card could be higher than its paper counterpart.

Anyway, the Chrome PSA 10 shot from about $20 shipped to $50 shipped in roughly a month. Now, that card is about a $70 example. Likewise, the graded “paper” card shot up from about $15-20 to over $40. Of course, the autographs are the more sought after cards, and they carry a $200-250+ price tag. That’s why the non-auto is so attractive, because of the significantly lower price point.

Topps Heritage High Number is not going to have nearly the same print run as something like 2012 Bowman and Bowman Chrome. So, it’s possible that the High Number Rookie Card could be an attractive long-term investment. At the very least, it’s a great rookie card of a Red Sox star with great eye appeal and a vintage feel.

What’s your favorite rookie card of Xander Bogaerts?

1963 Topps Rookie Stars - Willie Stargell and the “Other Guys”

5/1/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Many baseball card collectors consider the 1963 Topps #553 Rookie Stars card to be a Willie Stargell rookie card. While that is absolutely true, the legendary Pittsburgh Pirate shares his rookie card with three other outfielders. As is the case with many early rookie cards, Hall of Fame ballplayers share their cards with lesser names. But, since these guys share a Rookie Card with a Hall of Famer, why not see how their careers turned out?

Brock Davis was certainly never a star at the MLB level. In fact, he’d only get into 242 games over parts of 6 seasons, amassing a whopping 0.2 WAR over that time. He carried a decent .331 OBP in his career, but had only one home run and not much else.

Jim Gosger never had much of an MLB career, although he hung around for parts of ten seasons. His 1963 debut with the Red Sox was a dreadful 19 plate appearance cup of coffee. Gosger actually wouldn’t resurface in the Majors until 1965, when he wasn’t a star but instead a league average hitter who gave the Red Sox 1.4 WAR in only 81 games. He would be perfectly acceptable in 1966 as well, but he’d be traded midseason to the Kansas City A’s with a couple other players for three players, including Jose Tartabull, who would be awful for the ‘66 and ‘67 Red Sox. (Tartabull’s son Danny would be a decent player, though). Gosger would carve out a basically replacement level career as a reserve outfielder. He was definitely NOT a star, with a career total of 2.3 WAR!

John Hernnstein is the worst player here, amassing NEGATIVE -2.0 WAR in his short career, 239 games over parts of 5 seasons. Not much to say about him other than he hit 6 home runs in 1964 for a Phillies team that had no business playing him in 125 games.

Meanwhile, this Willie Stargell fellow would amass 57.5 WAR over 21 seasons all for Pittsburgh. He’d hit .282/.360/.529 for an .889 career OPS (147 OPS+). He also hit 475 home runs. While he was a below average defensive outfielder and first baseman according to TotalZone, Stargell was easily a Hall of Fame player.

Considering the other three guys COMBINED for 0.5 WAR, I think it’s safe to say this is a Willie Stargell rookie card with three random guys. (Although, one is a Red Sox player so it counts for my Red Sox collection, which is funny to say!)

1973 Topps Luis Aparicio - Cards Your Mom Threw Out!

4/29/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

In 2010, Topps created a series of cards called “Cards Your Mom Threw Out” featuring vintage Topps cards with either a new “CMT” back or the original back. These are actually fairly sought after cards by collectors, especially those with the original backs. For me, as a Red Sox fan, the Luis Aparicio CMT-138 is one that’s a nice card to have, as 1973 was not only the last hurrah for “Looie,” but also a pretty good season overall.

Aparicio came to Boston before the 1971 season for second baseman Mike Andrews and infielder Luis Alvarado. Andrews had some nice years for Boston, and would have one more good year in 1971 before fading away. Alvarado never did much of anything. 1971 was a down year for Aparicio and was actually worse than replacement level according to Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (-0.5 WAR). He’d rebound in 1972 to be a league average shortstop (2.0 WAR). But 1973 was a nice final season for the future Hall of Fame shortstop.

In 1973, Aparicio hit only .271/.324/.309 with the bat, which wasn’t too good, but he did walk more than he struck out and added 13 stolen bases. He was only caught once, too. During the season he passed the 500 SB milestone to finish with 506 steals. Besides his value on the base paths, Aparicio was worth a whopping 11 runs above average according to TotalZone. That was after being “worth” -8 runs in 1971 and -4 runs in 1972. In his career, Aparicio would be worth 149 runs above average over 18 seasons. He won nine Gold Gloves in his career as an elite defender.

Luis Aparicio’s original 1973 Topps card is hardly a pricey one. You can find one graded PSA 8 for under $10 and one in PSA 9 for around $20 to $25. There are only 8 PSA 10 1973 Topps Aparicio cards, and those can fetch several hundred dollars. Aparicio would also have a 1974 Topps card.that are actually similarly priced, with only 4 PSA 10 copies currently graded. Luis Aparicio’s later cards with the Red Sox aren’t super expensive, but since he’s a Hall of Famer who made a living with his speed and glove, he’s worth adding to any vintage baseball card collection.

Valuable Red Sox Baseball Cards: 1960 Topps Earl Wilson Rookie Card

3/29/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

While 1960 Topps is rightly better known for a much more valuable Red Sox rookie card in Carl Yastrzemski, there was another Boston rookie card that deserves attention: that of starting pitcher Earl Wilson in 1960 Topps. The right-handed Wilson actually didn't start off that well in his early two stints in 1959 and 1960. In fact, he returned to the minors in 1961. However, when he came back in 1962, he stayed in the Majors for quite some time.

Earl Wilson had a decent first full season in the Majors in 1962, with a 3.90 ERA in 31 games and 28 starts. Also, since pitchers still had to bat in the American League for most of his career, Wilson added 3 home runs at the plate in 1962. Throughout his career, Wilson hit .195/.265/.369 with 35 home runs, not at all shabby for a pitcher.

In his first couple of seasons, Wilson was rather wild, walking 111 in 1962 and 105 in 1963. But his control vastly improved in 1964, which was actually one of his worst seasons in the Majors. From 1959 to 1966, Wilson was worth 8.2 WAR on the mound and 3.9 WAR at the plate, with a 4.10 ERA (95 ERA+) in 156 starts and 174 total appearances.

From these numbers, it would seem Earl Wilson was a solid but unexceptional pitcher for the Red Sox. That much is true, but as with many decent players that the Red Sox had throughout the 20th century, they traded him away before he delievered on his promise. In mid-1966, Wilson was traded to the Detroit Tigers for utility player Don Demeter. While Demeter was a decent player in parts of 1966 and 1967 for the Red Sox, Wilson was exceptional for the rest of 1966. He'd produce 12 WAR for the Tigers over 5 seasons with a 3.51 ERA in 145 starts (149 total appearances).

Wilson's career would end in 1970 with the San Diego Padres, but he ended his career with 27.6 WAR in 11 seasons. The Red Sox would've been happy to have him from late 1966 to 1969, missing out on 3 of his best seasons in the Major Leagues. It always seemed like the Red Sox were one or two pieces away from winning championships, and Earl Wilson could've been one, just like so many others the Red Sox gave up on too soon.

Most Valuable Red Sox Baseball Cards: George Kell

2/18/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Most people think of Hall-of-Fame third baseman George Kell as a Detroit Tiger. That’s not surprising, as he played in parts of eight seasons with the Tigers and was a Tigers broadcaster for thirty-seven years. But, he started out with the Philadelphia A’s, and the Tigers actually traded Kell to the Boston Red Sox in 1952!

George Kell was actually part of a nine-player trade that involved Red Sox legend Johnny Pesky going to Detroit. After the trade, Kell hit .319/.390/.453 for the Sox in 75 games. In 1953, Kell would hit 307.383.483 and enjoy a 3 WAR season. Unfortunately, 1953 would see him hit only .258/.361/.290 in 26 games for the Sox. He’d be traded to the White Sox for infielder Grady Hatton and $100,000. Hatton would finish out 1954 well with the Sox, and Kell would have one more good season with the White Sox in 1955.

There are actually a fair amount of George Kell baseball cards out there depicting the Hall of Fame ballplayer on the Red Sox. The most valuable are graded examples of 1953 Topps #138 and 1954 Bowman #50. Kell’s 1953 Topps card is valued around $300 for PSA 8 (Near Mint POP 76) examples, over $600 for PSA 8.5 (Near-Mint+ POP 5), and $1,750 for PSA 9 (Mint POP 8)! His 1954 Bowman is much more affordable at around $80 for a PSA 8 (POP 84 + 7 with an Off-Center Qualifier), $115 for a PSA 8.5 (POP 3) and $475 for a PSA 9 (POP 9)! There are about the same amount of PSA 8 and PSA 8.5 of each of these cards in existence, but they are still fairly rare.

While George Kell’s legacy is as a Detroit Tiger, his short, fairly productive time with the Boston Red Sox makes his key cards quite valuable to any serious Red Sox baseball card collector.

Who do you collect?

Red Sox 2019 MLB Sleepers - Matthew Kent

12/11/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

The 26-year old left-handed starting pitcher, Matthew Kent, is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the Boston Red Sox farm system. He’s no longer considered a prospect at his “advanced” age, but he looks to be a pretty solid pitcher due for a chance to debut in the MLB in 2019 or 2020. He just broke into AAA last year, and it wasn’t a pretty first start. But, Kent’s track record since being taken in the 13th round of the 2015 MLB draft has been very solid.

Matthew Kent 2019 Projections

Steamer: 4.74 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9
ZiPS: 4.79 ERA (4.49 FIP) 5.45 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 1.3 WAR

In his minor league career, Kent’s never struck out many batters, but he hasn’t walked many, either. He’s had a fairly consistent 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is definitely above-average. Kent held left-handed batters to a .241 average in 2018 in AA, but only a .264 average against righties. So, he doesn’t have obvious platoon splits, meaning he’s a realistic multi-inning option.

The MLE’s (Major League Equivalents) for Kent in 2019 aren’t fantastic, but they are passable. He’s never been that susceptible to long balls, so the ZiPS projection of 1.02 HR/9 is probably more in line with his past history. It’s possible that the strikeout rates are a bit low and the walk rates may be a bit high. Even then, a starter being worth 1.3 WAR is worth about $10 million on a one-year deal on the open market. This guy has potential.

That Kent projects so well to essentially be the Sox’s 6th starter speaks well to his ability. He’s not someone you ever hear much about either. He could log meaningful MLB innings late in 2019 or 2020.

Red Sox 2019 Preview: Third Base

12/11/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media

There’s no way this author can talk about the Red Sox third base situation without continuing to grieve over the loss of Travis Shaw. Alas, he was traded - along with three minor leaguers - to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Yes, that Tyler Thornburg… he of the lost 2017 season and replacement level 2018 season in 24 innings. He was so bad that the Red Sox didn’t even guarantee his $1.75 million contract for the 2019 season…

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has been raking at Miller Field, while all the while playing his usual brand of solid defense at third base and even second base. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 WAR in 2018! That’s while making the league minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, he’s due for another 2.6 WAR according to Steamer… Whoops…

The good news for the Red Sox is that master team-builder Dave Dombrowski is able to cover for his only major misstep with the team. The Sox have a very solid young player in Rafael Devers - who could be just as valuable as Shaw in 2019. They also have two young players that may be decent players at the hot corner at some point, as well. Let’s see what the Sox have here.

Rafael Devers

2019 Steamer Projection: 560 PA, .270/.328/.476, .340 wOBA, 7.1 batting runs, 0.8 baserunning runs, -2.6 fielding runs. 2.6 WAR

2019 ZiPS Projection: .265/.320/.480, -6 defense, 1.9 WAR

Devers is only 22 years old. He had a 1 WAR season with a .240/.298/.433 batting line and 21 HR. That’s not bad for a 21 year old, who was probably a bit overmatched. His -13 Defensive Runs Saved and -5.2 UZR/150 show he wasn’t quite ready with the glove, either. If the projections are right and he becomes simply below average with the glove, he’s an above average player. ZiPS is probably right to be skeptical about his defense. Even then, he’s probably at least an average regular - which for the league minimum and his power upside, the Sox will be happy to take.

Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez are certain to see perhaps a dozen games apiece at third base. But, you really don’t want either holding down the position all year. The good news is that the Red Sox are not devoid of third base prospects.

Michael Chavis

2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.300/.439, -0.1 defense
2019 ZiPS Projection: .242/.299/.449, -1 defense, 1.1 WAR

Chavis isn’t even on Steamer’s radar to have much more than a 7 at-bat cup of coffee. However, it agrees with ZiPS that Chavis is very likely to be about what Devers was last year in 2019 if he played full-time in the Majors. Of course, he’s going to be 24 in August 2019. His defense is known to be shaky, too, which is why he’s been shifting towards first base. The good news is that Chavis could still have some value. He would actually worth be giving a shot if he shows promise at AAA and Devers is failing or hurt.

After all, Chavis did hit .303/.388/.508 in 139 AA at-bats and .273/.294/.545 in 34 AAA at-bats, with an 80-game PED suspension mixed in. The power is real, and he has enough plate discipline to not embarrass himself. If he can become a passable third baseman, or even first baseman, he actually does have a future. It could even be late 2019 or early 2020.

Bobby Dalbec

2019 Steamer Projection: .229/.295/.432, 0 defense

2019 ZiPS Projection: .200/.280/.407, 0 defense, 0.5 WAR

Dalbec probably has no business being in the MLB in 2019, but if he got 450 or so at-bats, he’s probably going to be fairly above replacement level. Of course, that’s considering neutral defense. Scouts consider his defense to be adequate and he has an above-average arm. So, netural defense is probably fine to consider.

In 2018, Dalbec destroyed A+ ball with a .256/.372/.573 and 26 HR in 419 plate appearances, albeit with a 31% strikeout rate. He hit .261.323.514 in 124 plate appearance, but with a 37% strikeout rate. Steamer is a bit more optimistic about Dalbec’s bat than ZiPS going into his age-24 season. The strikeouts are concerning, though.

If Dalbec can trim the strikeouts and fare OK at AAA, there’s still a possibility that Dalbec tastes the majors in 2020. At any rate, he’s the Sox #12 prospect at the moment.

Even after essentially giving away Travis Shaw, it seems like the Sox aren’t in that bad of shape. Of course, one of Chavis or Dalbec becoming at least a passable regular at either first or third base would be a grand development for the 2020 season. If both pan out, along with Devers, the Red Sox are in good shape. Otherwise, that Travis Shaw trade could haunt the Red Sox for awhile. Still, when that’s the worst move you make and still win a championship, you’re doing OK.

Red Sox Third Base: B-minus

Red Sox 2019 Preview: First Base (1B)

12/9/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

In Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Red Sox have a roughly league-average platoon at first base. Moreland can play against right-handed pitching and Pearce can play against lefties, who he mashes. Sam Travis and Blake Swihart are in the mix there, as well.

The most interesting outside candidate is Michael Chavis, coming off PED suspension and mediocre results, who is projected for a .248/.300/.439 batting line. The good news is that the Steamer projections are fairly conservative in this author’s opinion. Let’s take a look.

Mitch Moreland

Steamer 2019 projection: 350 PA, .251/.325/.441.329 wOBA, 1.1 Batting Runs, -1.1 Baserunning Runs, 1.8 Fielding Runs, 0.7 WAR

Moreland was a shrewd signing by the Red Sox in the 2016 off season that worked out very well. His subsequent two-year deal has also worked out well, although you’d want more out of your starting first baseman than 0.6 WAR. In a pure platoon situation, it’s very possible that Moreland greatly outperforms his .251/.325/.441 batting line projection. In 2018, he hit only .242/.305/.379 against lefties and .246/.331/.450 against righties. He’s only earning $6.5 million in 2018, just as he did in 2017, so he’s not exactly breaking the bank. Also, he is a plus fielder. With a little luck and having Pearce around all season, he could break 1 WAR

Steve Pearce

Steamer 2019 projection: 280 PA, .266/.344/.470, .350 wOBA, 5.7 batting runs, -0.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.6 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Since Pearce is primarily a lefty masher, it’s not outrageous to expect about 1.1 WAR from Pearce. He’s making $6.25 million in 2019, about the same as Moreland. He’s a worse fielder, but if he mostly plays first, that won’t matter so much. Also, if he keeps up his improved walk rate from 2018, he’s likely even more valuable than this.

The other guys may not amount to much, although Chavis is interesting in that he projects for a nearly league-average batting line. He also can play third base, if erratically. If Chavis shows something this year in AAA, the Sox may call him up in 2019.

All in all, this is an above average group at first base. It’s hardly exciting, but there’s a little upside here. This is not an area the Sox have to work on right now, especially if Chavis / Sam Travis can essentially replace Moreland in 2020.

Red Sox First Basemen: C-plus

Red Sox 2019 Preview: Catchers

12/9/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

As a group, the Boston Red Sox are a bit underwhelming at the catching position. Steamer projects the three catchers on the Red Sox roster - Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart - for 1.6 WAR. That’s a bit below league average, although both Vazquez and Leon are above average catchers defensively. Of course, Vazquez and Leon combined for NEGATIVE 1.7 WAR last season, when the team won 108 games. It’s most likely that they don’t repeat that. Let’s take a look.

Christian Vazquez

2019 Steamer: 384 PA .256/.305/.367, .293 wOBA, -10.0 batting runs, -0.8 Baserunning Runs, 1.7 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Vazquez had a dreadful year with the bat in 2018, but it was mostly due to a .237 batting average on balls in play (career .293 BABIP). He’ll probably never be a fantastic hitter, but the Sox hope he’s more like his 2017 with the bat. If he hits .290/.330/.400, he’ll be about a league average catcher with his glovework and positive pitch framing marks. Even if he’s closer to .260/.300/.370, he’s still a decent “real life” catcher, although you wouldn’t want to touch him in fantasy baseball..

Sandy Leon

2019 Steamer: 192 PA, .225/.285/.346 .277 wOBA, -7.5 Batting Runs, -0.5 Baserunning Runs, 1.0 Fielding Runs, 0.3 WAR

Like Vazquez, Sandy Leon had a terrible regular season with the bat in 2018. Also like Vazquez, he had horrible luck on batted balls in play (.226 BABIP / .290 BABIP career). While it’s unlikely he’ll have another year like his 2016 - .310/.369/.476 in 78 games for 2.5 WAR (!) - it’s not impossible. Still, his Steamer projection is in line with his career numbers, and 0.3 WAR is acceptable.

Blake Swihart

2019 Steamer: 64 PA, .235/.300/.353 .287 wOBA, -2.0 Batting Runs, 0.1 Baserunning Runs -0.1 Fielding Runs, 0.1 WAR

Swihart is a fairly forgotten man at this point. It’s very likely he greatly outperforms that projection. He’s expected to remain at catcher, although he’s been passable in left field and first base. The bar is so low for catchers at this point that if he impresses in spring training, he may even be trade bait if the Sox have no room for him on the roster - which is likely.

While catcher is definitely not a strength for the 2019 Red Sox, it’s very easy for them to beat what they got out of the position in 2018. It’s not a position of clear weakness that the Sox need to address, and Vazquez still has upside. Plus, Leon has shown the tendency to get hot, so this could end up being a lot better than the C-minus grade we have to give them right now.

Red Sox Catchers: C-minus

Nathan Eovaldi Re-Signs with the Red Sox

12/6/2018

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

When the Boston Red Sox re-signed pitcher (and playoff hero) Nathan Eovaldi to a four-year, $67.5 million contract, it gave me pause. That’s not to say that it’s a bad contract. After all, Eovaldi was highly sought after. When healthy, he’s one of the better mid-rotation starters out there. So, is this actually a good contract?

From a pure on-paper baseball perspective, this is an awesome move. This fills out the Red Sox rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi. Brian Johnson is still there, too, and he’s a decent “sixth” starter. Also, if Eovaldi’s arm holds up, he’ll be an anchor for the rotation along with the recently-extended Chris Sale after Rick Porcello leaves in free agency - although not a given, it’s very likely he will leave for “greener” pastures.

Let’s look at it as far as projections are concerned. Eovaldi projects for a 3 WAR in 2019 according ot Steamer. That feels about right. A 3.75 ERA, 8.3 K/9 (strikeout rate), and 2.3 BB/9 (walk rate) aren’t ridiculous to expect - although I’ll point out that his career walk rate is 2.74 BB/9. If he keeps the home runs down like he has throughout his career, though, a few more walks doesn’t hurt him that badly.

We’ll say that a “win” or 1 WAR of value is worth $8 million. So, 3 WAR/season would be worth about $24 million on the open market. Of course, Eovaldi has had two Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgeries in his career. So, there is certainly a discount on that injury uncertainty - but that really is true of any pitcher. At only 29 years of age in 2019, we can easily project him on a gentle aging curve

2019: 3 WAR (age 29)
2020: 2.7 WAR (age 30)
2021: 2.4 WAR (age 31)
2022: 2.1 WAR (age 32)

These projections do “guess” that he’s going to wear down as he reaches his age-32 season. But, as we’ve seen in the past, successful comebacks from Tommy John surgeries do tend to help a pitcher’s overall longevity. So, he could be a 3 win pitcher every year, and this contract is an absolute bargain. It’s not insane to think.

Of course, with that basic projection, you’re talking about a pitcher who’s worth 10.2 WAR over four years, or roughly 2.5 WAR. That makes a $16-17 million annual salary still feel slightly like a bargain. So, why is there skepticism?

Simply put, most long-term contracts for pitchers tend to look pretty bad. Look at Jordan Zimmermann, who signed with the Tigers for 5 years and $110 million, after being a very solid pitcher for the Nationals. Eovaldi’s stuff is probably a bit better than Zimmermann’s, but look how far south Zimmermann went. His contract is now an albatross.

Of course, Eovaldi is owed about two-thirds of the money as Zimmermann, and Dombrowski didn’t offer that contract, as he joined the Red Sox a few months before that contract was signed. When Dombrowski signs a player, he feels the risk is worth it. (Miguel Cabrera’s monster mega-deal was forced on him by management in Detroit.) We’ve seen how well J.D. Martinez’s contract is working out so far - and that contract has an opt-out clause that is likely to be used.

Eovaldi’s contract isn’t going to kill the Red Sox, even if he suddenly declines - of which there isn’t any indication right now. This is a move that is made with 2020, 2021, and 2022 in mind. While this guaranteed salary does push the Sox close to their limit with offseason spending, it’s highly likely they don’t resign Kimbrel - and this was probably the better use of money anyway.

While I’m not sure that Eovaldi actually meets those fairly reasonable projections, this is a good deal on paper. Baseball experts agreed that Eovaldi would probably get a four-year deal in the $60 million range because of his age and past results. This isn’t an overpay for a World Series hero. Eovaldi is good and good right now. He’s not old, going into what should be the prime of his career. In fact, in relation to recent deals, even the very solid Patrick Corbin who got a ton from the Nationals, he’s actually a bargain.

Updated 3/29/2019