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MLB - Worst Free Agent Signings - Reds Sign Skip Schumaker

10/29/2016

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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On November 18, 2013, Cincinnati Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty made one of the strangest free agent signings I've ever seen. Here's what I had to say about it:
 
"While the terms are not yet disclosed for this contract, I would like to point out that giving a two-year deal to a player who was worth 1 win BELOW replacement level last season is not exactly a wise decision. This is not to say that Skip Schumaker is a terrible player. He's not terrible against right-handed pitching and has consistently posted good OBP numbers. But he lacks power and while he technically plays a bunch of different positions, he doesn't play any of them particularly well.
 
On the plus side, there is hope for him. He had a couple of good years with the Cardinals (2008 and 2009) where he was pretty much an everyday player and his .360 or so OBP over almost 600 PA a season provided most of his value. He's actually okay as a corner outfielder defensively, so if you desperately needed someone to just get on-base that won't butcher in the field, he's your guy. But I'm not sure a two-year contract made sense. It will be interesting to see how new Reds manager Bryan Price handles him and maybe this deal works out, especially since it's probably not for a ton of money.
 
Still, two guaranteed years for him seems a bit odd to me, though we know that Reds GM Walt Jocketty - who originally had him when he was with the Cardinals - really likes him. This is a wait-and-see that could pan out okay if he's limited to the corner outfield for the most part and only faces right-handed pitching."
 
The contract was only for $5 million total, a reasonable sum for a veteran role plater. Skip Schumaker was coming off of a very bad year after previously being a reasonably fair player.  So while this move caused head-scratching at the time, it just seemed like a strange use of resources.
 
The Reds also deployed Schumaker in the way that I suggested in my commentary: mostly in the corner outfield and rarely against left-handed pitching. Despite this, Schumaker continued to play below average defense and couldn't hit a lick. In 2014, he was "worth" -1.2 WAR in only 83 games! The fact that they even played him that much when it was clear he was ineffective still baffles me to this day.
 
I think most sane people would agree it would have been fine to release him and let him walk away with the other $2.5 million. But no, they played him even more in 2015! I'm sure Skip is a really nice guy and they wanted to keep him around the clubhouse, but playing a guy who's "worth" -1.1 WAR in 131 games is simply not good baseball. He wasn't even a good pinch hitter! Basically, the Reds played him because they didn't want to own up to the fact that they made a bad signing. Maybe they didn't have better options? No, they actually did. That's the point of the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metric. Just about anyone could have done better.
 
Schumaker retired as a member of the Padres during Spring Training 2016. He even admitted that he couldn't catch up to a 95-mph fastball anymore. You could never blame the guy for not trying, because he definitely did. But the aches and pains just caught up to him. It's sad that he had to go out like that, with three very poor seasons on his record.
 
The good news is that he was able to retire comfortably and enjoy his family. But to this day, this is one of Walt Jocketty's worst signings, and one of the worse ends to a career that we've seen in a while.

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MLB - Kansas City Royals Acquire Ace Starting Pitcher Johnny Cueto from Reds

7/26/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V..E. Media Staff
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Photo credit: "Johnny Cueto 2" by Wknight94 - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
The Kansas City Royals have opened a healthy lead in the American League Central, but to assure a division win, they have gone out and acquired one of the best pitchers on the trading market. The Cincinnati Reds surrendered their free-agent-to-be ace Johnny Cueto in exchange for three left-handed pitchers: Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed. All look to be decent pick-ups for the rebuilding Reds. The Reds are also kicking in some money in the deal.

This would appear to purely be a rental for the Royals, as Cueto is going to be a free agent after the season. Also, because he was traded, the Royals will not be able to offer Cueto a qualifying offer at the end of the season. FanGraphs projects Cueto to be worth about 1.5 - 1.6 WAR through the rest of the season, which could mean as much as two games difference in the standings. With Jason Vargas out for the year, Cueto will take his place. The Royals haven't had a true ace this year, so this move is definitely slated more towards having a strong Game One starter in the playoffs.

In return, the Reds get some very interesting talent. Finnegan has already seen the majors, but has been struggling with his control this year. Lamb is a 25-year old starter who's had a very strong year. Both Lamb and Finnegan are going to AAA for now, but will probably see the Major League roster in September.. Reed looks to be a talented arm, too, drafted by the Royals in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft. He'll report to AA, hoping to build off of this year's success. Finnegan may top out as a high-leverage reliever, but Lamb could very likely be a part of the Reds' rotation next year. Reed may be a year away or so from helping, but when he does he could be at least a valuable swing-man between the rotation and bullpen.

Did the Royals overpay somewhat? Perhaps not, especially as all three arms they sent away could end up being little more than bullpen arms or back-end starters. But the Reds can use all the talent that they can get right now. This is probably the best return they could have hoped for in exchange for two - three months of a starter that won't help them anymore this season. Cueto is easily going to be the Game One starter in the Division Series, and hopefully for the Royals, beyond. Therefore, he's really worth a lot more than two wins to them. If the Royals happen to win the World Series, this will be a pretty awesome move. Either way, the Reds have some solid arms for next season and beyond.
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Barry Larkin: Hall of Fame Shortstop

10/20/2014

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Joining Ron Santo in the 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame class, Barry Larkin is enshrined forever in Cooperstown after a nineteen-year career that spanned from 1986-2004. During that time, he helped the Reds win the 1990 World Series, became the first ever shortstop to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season, and played his entire career in a Cincinnati Reds uniform. As a hitter, he regularly walked more than he struck out, and in the field was a capable shortstop.

Statistically, as far as shortstops go, he stacks up pretty well against his Hall-of-Fame counterparts, with a career line of .295/.371/.444 for an above average OPS of .815 of in over 9000 plate appearances. He did not reach any of the major milestones that many Hall of Famers have, such as 3000 hits, but he did hit 198 home runs (an excellent number for a shortstop) and racked up 379 stolen bases. It's also likely that if he had not missed significant parts of several seasons that his numbers would have finished considerably closer to many of his now peers in the Hall of Fame such as Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith.

Larkin Compared to His Hall of Fame Peers  

While Larkin's traditional counting statistic totals of hits, home runs, RBI and stolen bases aren't nearly as “sexy” as those of his Hall of Fame peers, especially those of Ernie Banks and Cal Ripken Jr. (although Cal played third for the last quarter of his career). Larkin’s numbers are certainly very respectable and notable for any ballplayer, especially one who played nearly two decades of Major League Baseball. Interestingly enough, however, he actually has a better career OPS than Cal Ripken (who has a .787 mark) and one very close to Ernie Banks (with a mark of .833). Yes, Banks hit over 500 home runs, and Cal certainly was a middle of the order power hitter. Larkin was a prototypical lead-off hitter, and with his high on-base skills and base-running abilities, he produced about the same as those two icons in a somewhat different way.

As far as saber-metric stats like WAR are concerned, Larkin racked up nearly 71 WAR during his 19-year career, a number very comparable to Ernie Banks’ 74 WAR or Ozzie Smith's 70. Ripken's WAR total is nearly 100, but he also played in more games than Larkin, hit for more power, and was actually an even slicker fielder (by current fielding metrics) than the career Cincinnati Red. From WAR totals alone, it's pretty clear that Larkin belongs in the Hall.

Barry Larkin Compared to the Other Candidates for the Class of 2012  

Of those that didn't make the cut for the Hall of Fame induction this year, Jeff Bagwell probably should have joined Larkin. Long time workhorse pitcher Jack Morris was not far behind in voting, and nearly joined Barry in Cooperstown. Tim Raines, certainly one of the more underrated players of his time, earned enough votes for another shot at the Hall in 2013.

Barry Larkin was inducted along with the late Ron Santo, who was elected earlier in 2012 by the Veterans Committee. Of course, Santo passed away several years ago now, and many fans are upset that this honor came posthumously. There are many people on both sides of the argument on whether Santo should be in the Hall of Fame or not. While he wasn't known as a huge offensive player, he played in a pitcher's era and still hit 342 home runs and had a well above average OPS of .826, a number very similar to Larkin's. He also was, like Barry, a good, if not spectacular, defensive infielder (although shortstop is certainly a tougher position to field than third base.) So if Larkin made it into the Hall, Santo certainly deserves to be there, as well.

Looking Ahead to the Class of 2013  

Barry Larkin's Hall of Fame induction was certainly not a huge shock to anyone, as all of the other candidates had their fair share of doubters, besides Bagwell who may make it one day, simply on the strength of his domination as a hitter. However, Bagwell did play during the steroid era, and though by all accounts he was clean, he very well could end up being snubbed a spot in the Hall because of the cheating of his peers.

Bagwell, Jack Morris, and Tim Raines all have a lot of competition in 2013, however. This will be the first year on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Curt Schilling, and Craig Biggio. It's pretty much a safe assumption that Biggio will eventually make it in. Piazza may take some time to get in because of steroid allegations, but I think most fans agree he belongs in the Hall. Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa likely will never get in for various reasons, none of which had to do with on-field performance.

Curt Schilling had a great career, and won two of the biggest World Series in recent memories (the 2001 Diamondbacks win against the Yankees and the 2004 Red Sox victory) plus a third in 2007 with the Red Sox. He may sneak in because of those memorable moments and the fact he could easily have more wins on his record if he hadn't pitched for some awful Phillies squads. He also was hands-down a far superior pitcher to Jack Morris. Just look at Schilling's stats versus Jack Morris' stats. There is really no comparison.

So congratulations to Barry Larkin on a well-deserved induction. While this year's choice was a fairly easy call, next year will be quite controversial.

(Thanks to Baseball Almanac's list of Hall of Fame Shortstops (pre-Larkin induction) for helping with this fascinating research. I also must thank Fangraphs as always, for their comprehensive player database with all the stats you could ever want. Also, Baseball Reference continues to be the go to source for many things baseball.)

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons

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