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Sam Howard - An Underrated Future MLB Starting Pitcher?

12/1/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Colorado Rockies finished off the month of November by not tendering a contract to left-handed pitcher Sam Howard. While he had a decent four-game cup of coffee in his major league debut with the Rockies, Colorado decided that they didn’t really need him as part of their 40-man roster. It would seem that he profiles as a lefty middle reliever, but perhaps there is more here to Howard than his mere stats would suggest.

Sam Howard’s 2018 at AAA

Having a 5 ERA in AAA is hardly great for projecting your future value, and the projection systems aren’t kind based on past results. But let’s see what Howard really is. He’s a former Rockies 3rd round pick and he’s posted decent results in the past. The Pacific Coast League is a hitter’s league, and Albuquerque where the Rockies’ AAA affiliate plays is well known for being rough for young pitchers.

It’s hard to say how “unlucky” that Howard was, though, at AAA. His 2018 AAA FIP was 5.03 and ERA is 5.06. His strand rate was a pretty low 70.8 percent and his HR/9 rate of 12.6 percent was slightly high. His expected FIP of 4.67 is probably more in line with his actual performance.

Sam Howard’s MLB Debut

The Rockies saw enough to give Howard a shot out of the bullpen. He pitched only 4 innings with a single strikeout and three walks, but only surrendered a single run. He also had a crazy high 89 percent strand rate. While it’s hardly a back debut, it doesn’t tell us much. However, we did learn a couple things if we dig deeper into his Fangraphs player profile.

Sam Howard’s Future Value

According to FanGraphs, Sam Howard has a below-average fastball in the 90-92 range, an average-ish slider and an average to above-average changeup. His projected future value of a 40 suggests that he probably is doomed to the back of a major league bullpen. That’s hardly terrible, but there are a couple things that suggest that he may be better than that.

The thing that really stands out about Sam Howard is that his changeup is clearly his best pitch, yet he doesn’t throw it all that much. He’s pretty much strictly a fastball/slider pitcher with an occasional changeup. In his very limited debut, he threw his fastball 49 percent of the time, his slider 42 percent of the time, and his changeup only 9 percent of the time.

His scouting report and the pitch value of his changeup certainly lineup, as his changeup was worth 0.5 runs above average, which is a staggering 6.55 per 100 pitches. Compare that to his fastball (0.58 per 100) and his slider (-4.84 per 100). His slider is likely much better than that.



Should Sam Howard Focus on His Changeup?

While projections see him as essentially a replacement level reliever who should mostly face lefties - he was torched for .385/.529/.538 against righties in his 4 MLB games - there is that changeup. While it’s a small sample size, the scouting reports suggest that is his best pitch, yet that is not how he’s been utilized. A changeup is one of the best pitches for a left-handed pitcher versus right-handed batters.

That isn’t to say that doubling his changeup usage while throwing fewer sliders and slightly fewer fastballs will turn him into a back-end starter. But, at the very least, Howard is better off throwing more change-ups. If a team recognizes this, he could turn into a pleasant surprise as a middle reliever who won’t get beat badly by righties. He could perhaps develop into even a swingman type, since he has the endurance. That’s actually pretty valuable.

The Rockies should definitely consider bringing Howard back if they’re willing to see that his changeup could be his path to success. Otherwise, there are plenty of teams that could use a lottery ticket like Howard at the league minimum for a couple of years.

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The Colorado Rockies Gave $16 Million Plus to Left-Handed Reliever Boone Logan… How Did It Work Out?

10/6/2016

 
by Richard Rowell, Sports Break
Boone Logan
Back in December of 2013, I wasn’t very nice to the Colorado Rockies front office for their signing of left-handed relief pitcher, Boone Logan.

This is what I said on December 13, 2013.

“I would definitely like to know what's going on inside the minds of the Rockies front office. I do understand why they would like to have Boone Logan as a left-handed specialist in their bullpen. They do have Rex Brothers and Josh Outman from the left side already, both of whom are already pretty tough on left-handers, Brothers, especially.

But Logan is a nice piece to add to any bullpen. He's been worth 3.2 WAR over the past four years (with the Yankees!), so he's actually been a bit underrated. But $16.5 million for a guy you don't REALLY need? Aren't the Rockies supposedly on a tight budget? Lefty specialists are overpaid enough already. Now we have one making over $5 million a year. The Rockies needed to get another cheap starter, not a guy who will throw about 150 innings over three years!

Good for Boone, though.”


A couple days later, I provided some much more in-depth analysis:


“Boone Logan is a perfectly good left-handed reliever. Yes, he's really only good against lefties. In his career, lefties have batted only .243/.312/.378 while right-handers have hit .297/.379/.475. Those numbers against right-handed batters are awfully awful. Fortunately, Logan has been even more effective against lefties recently (.221/.274/.377 in 2013). Oddly, he was actually WORSE against lefties in 2011: .789 OPS from left-handed batters and only a .673 OPS from right-handed batters. Even then, he was still effective overall. He's just been a solid pitcher for the past four seasons with New York.

Understandably, a good number of teams had interest in the left-hander. He's been worth an average of 0.8 WAR over the past four years, so a deal worth about $8-10 million over a couple of years made some sense. But the Colorado Rockies apparently wanted him more than everyone else, because they threw $16.5 million and three years at him. Let us ponder that contract for a moment. That is $5 million plus to a pitcher who will throw about 50-60 innings in each of the next three seasons. He could be worth about 80 percent of that. He could also get smacked around in games at Coors Field and become essentially replacement level. It's not like this guy is some sort of elite. Heck, he got more money than Joe Smith, and Smith is a better reliever. Smith has been worth 1.4 WAR on average in the past four seasons. From a WAR to dollars perspective, Smith may actually earn the $5 million a year he was given. That's going to be much more of a stretch for Logan.

What's more puzzling about this situation is that apparently Rockies director of baseball operations Bill Geivett was intent on signing a left-handed reliever. Reportedly, the Rockies were in on J.P. Howell, who is also a better pitcher than Logan. Howell, in fact, is just as good against lefties and is slightly better against right-handers. Howell is still available and a slightly inferior pitcher gets signed to a bigger deal that several superior relievers (including Javier Lopez) have already signed.

This is a major win for Boone Logan and his agent. The Rockies didn't need him since they had both Rex Brothers and Josh Outman who are already better than him against lefties. Brothers is actually ridiculous against lefties (career .549 OPS against lefties) and Outman is even better (career .523 OPS against). Logan will probably pitch just fine, but this is an incredibly curious use of money after signing a bargain in LaTroy Hawkins and acquiring a high-upside starter in Brett Anderson. Sometimes, their plans are simply never clear.”


To be fair, it’s probably a good thing that the Rockies signed Logan. Rex Brothers blew up, and besides having some good results in 2015, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since. Outman hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014 after having some serious issues with walks.


But Logan had a very rough 2014. Despite getting plenty of strikeouts, he also gave up a lot of home runs. In 2015, he was at least passable. His 2016, however, was very solid. After posting WAR marks of -0.4 and 0.3 in his first two seasons, he put up 0.8 WAR in 2016. Essentially he was worth 0.7 WAR over 3 seasons. While that’s not terrible for a reliever, really, that’s definitely not worth $16.5 million.


So I was right. This wasn’t a very smart move financially. But baseball wise, it wasn’t all too horrible. In any case, it worked out extremely well for Boone Logan!

Colorado Rockies Designate John Axford and Rex Brothers for Assignment

11/21/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Rex Brothers. Image © Royalbroil on Wikimedia Commons, used under Creative Commons license v3.0.
With both pitchers eligible for arbitration raises in 2016, the Colorado Rockies have removed both pitchers John Axford and Rex Brothers from the 40-man roster. If they aren't claimed on waivers, which is highly likely, they will become free agents. This is clearly a financially motivated move. Reliever Tommy Kahnle and long time catcher/first baseman Wilin Rosario join them on the waiver wire.

Axford had an OK season in 2015, but the walks continued to be a problem for him. He's probably iffy as a closing option at this point, but there are major league bullpens that will be happy to have his arm for the late innings. Rex Brothers is another interesting case. The lefty has always had trouble with walks. He imploded to the point that he ended up spending most of 2015 in the minor leagues. He came back and posted good results, but had 8 walks to only 5 strikeouts in about 11 innings. Both will get a guaranteed Major League deal most likely.

Kahnle has pretty much been just a replacement level middle reliever and will probably latch on with another major league organization on a minor league deal. Rosario has put up some significant power numbers in the past, but he's a negative defensively. Some organization may look to see if he can rebound offensively.

The moves are expected to save the Rockies roughly $11 million, per MLB Trade Rumors’s arbitration projections.  With the Rockies needing to upgrade in a number of positions, relief pitching understandably isn't a priority at the moment, especially all guys with minimal upside.

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MLB - What of Jose Reyes?

7/29/2015

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
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Jose Reyes with the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo used under Creative Commons from Keith Allison
It has been a sad past few days for the Colorado Rockies and their fans. They have just watched their franchise player,  shortstop Troy Tulowitzki traded away for a has been and three unproven arms. They also surrendered the steady reliable and popular reliever LaTroy Hawkins, as well. What are we to make of this sudden swap?

Well we know Tulo wasn't too thrilled with the circumstances surrounding his exit from the Rockies. The experts generally agree though that this is the best the floundering Colorado franchise could do given Tulo's injury history and huge contract commitments.

What hasn't been discussed is perhaps the one piece that seems to be neglected here. Jose Reyes isn't minced meat. He's been roughly a league average shortstop this season, keeping his head above water just enough offensively to compensate for his eroding defensive skills. Shortstop is currently one of the weaker positions in the major leagues right now. Even with talent on the way, like Trevor Story of the Rockies, nothing is a given yet.

While the Rockies are most certainly in a position to blow it all up, they had to take on a contract in order to get the young arms they crave. Besides Jeff Hoffman however, the reports on the other two pitchers are mixed.Miguel Castro probably will never be more than a middle reliever. The other guy is far enough away that he could be a fourth starter or mere inventory.

So what of Reyes?  Some pundits are of the opinion that he'll be swapped yet again. But without eating a ton of money and few obvious suitors it appears they are stuck with him. But that may not be the worst thing. Keep in mind that the thin rocky Mountain air has worked wonders for other position players. Vinny Castilla the slugger was definitely a product of Colorado, for example.

Even light-hitting shortstop, and current Rockies manager, Walt Weiss hit .328/.423/.400 in 223 games at Coors Field. Interestingly enough, Weiss only hit .258/.327/.309 at the old Mile High Stadium in 61 games.

Does that mean Reyes could return to All-Star form just from the bump given him by playing his home games at Coors? In only 25 games in his career at Coors, he’s hit a meager .254/.259/.447. That slugging percentage would be acceptable, though.

In the end, the Rockies get 3 interesting arms, trade away a reliever who was going to retire at season’s end anyway, and save $50 million or so in future salary commitments. If Reyes returns to just being a 3-win player, it’s hardly a bargain, but it’s not far out of the realm of possibility. Tulo has not played to his former great self. If his best days are behind him, then the Rockies made the right move. Reyes is far from worthless.
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Colorado Rockies Name Jeff Bridich New General Manager

10/8/2014

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by Richard Rowell, Write W.A.V.E. Media Staff
Coors Field, Denver, CO
Coors Field, Denver, CO - Photo credit: Flickr user color line
The Colorado Rockies made a surprising announcement today regarding their front office. Both General Manager Dan O'Dowd and Vice President of Major League Operations Bill Geivett resigned from their posts. The General Manager position will be taken over internally by Senior Director of Player Development Jeff Bridich. It hasn't been announced if Geivett's role will be replaced.

Major Missteps

O'Dowd has made some questionable moves over the years since he was first hired as General Manager in the fall of 1999. However, his only major failures were the signings of lefty pitchers Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton to lucrative long-term deals. After signing a 5-year, $51 million contract, Neagle was an absolute disaster in 2001 and 2002 for the Rockies, with ERA's well over 5. In 2003, he pitched in only 7 games due to injuries and had his contract terminated under a personal conduct clause after patronizing a prostitute - for which he legally served community service. The Players Association protested the termination, and the Rockies later came to an undisclosed financial agreement with him.

Mike Hampton had previously been a star pitcher for the Houston Astros and New York Mets and signed a massive contract with the Rockies. He was awful in his first season - a 5.41 ERA in 32 starts - and even worse in his second season with a 6.15 ERA in 30 starts. After the 2002 season, Hampton was traded along with Juan Pierre and cash in a three-team deal. some of his salary was deferred to other teams, but the Rockies had to eat a lot of it. Pierre went to the Marlins and Hampton ended up with the Braves. PIerre went on to be quite good with the Marlins, and Hampton actually found himself with the Braves in 2003 and 2004. He was off to a very good start in 2005 before he blew out his arm and because of setbacks in recovery did not pitch in 2006 or 2007. When he returned for his final contract year in 2008, he wasn't very good in 13 starts (4.85 ERA). He would try and hang on for a couple more years, but he was finished.

Focusing on the Farm

But since then the Rockies have gone to more of a player development route, one that's served them well with All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, outfielders Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon, catcher Wilin Rosario, and third baseman Nolan Arenado. They've also been good at identifying key contributors as free agents, including first baseman/outfielder Michael Cuddyer and first baseman Justin Morneau. Their main issue has been pitching, which they have not consistently developed, often going outside the system to try and boost their staff.

In 15 seasons under O'Dowd, the Rockies only enjoyed four winning seasons. They have definitely suffered from key injuries to outfielder Carlos Gonzalez (a trade that O'Dowd definitely won), Troy Tulowitzki, and others. But mostly, it has been as simple as when they've pitched well, they win, and that hasn't been often. With the now former Director of Player Development at the helm, it would appear obvious that the Rockies are going to fully commit to a homegrown strategy.

Bill Geivett took the VP of Major League Operations in 2012, although he'd been with the Rockies front office since 2000. While O'Dowd remained GM, Geivett took over a lot of the Major League dealings, even putting an office right outside the clubhouse - a move that caused some tensions with players. There were some deals that went very badly under his watch, namely the Brett Anderson trade that hasn't worked out well at all due to Anderson now suffering from back issues. Drew Pomeranz, who went to the A's in the deal, looked like he was about to put things together, but after breaking his hand after punching a chair in frustration, that was the end of his season. 

Relief pitcher Boone Logan was signed to a hefty contract for a left-handed specialist, and the results have been atrocious, though it would seem he suffered from horribly bad luck, too. They also foolishly waived a talented starting pitcher in Colin McHugh, who proceeded to breakout with the Houston Astros. But overall, what's been holding the team back is a lot of injuries and many young players not taking the roles that the team hoped that they would. 

But O'Dowd and Geivett did make some good trades last offseason. Drew Stubbs for Josh Outman proved to be a great one as Stubbs was forced into service due to injuries to outfielders and performed extremely well offensively at Coors Field - not so much elsewhere. But he's still around for 2015 and could still be a very useful piece going forward. The Dexter Fowler trade, after O'Dowd made some interesting comments about the player's character, hasn't worked out terribly, netting them a decent back-end starter in Jordan Lyles and defensive-minded outfielder Brandon Barnes. Fowler has been okay for the Astros, but nothing special. Still it was pretty much a wash.

Solid Core in Place

Going forward, young new general manager Jeff Bridich has some good pieces to work with. Obviously, he's going to hope Troy Tulowitzki and star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez can return fully healthy in 2015. Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon now have starting jobs in 2015 with Gonzalez's return due to their excellent performances in 2014. Defensive wizard Nolan Arenado started flashing a lot more power this season and should be a cornerstone of this team for some time. Wilin Rosario has had some struggles, however. Second base has also been a black hole for the team. But 2014 free agent addition Justin Morneau has been good and will return for an inexpensive second season. Even with Michael Cuddyer leaving, this will pretty much still be the same offense next year.

On the pitching side, the Rockies retained Jorge De La Rosa, their only really consistent starter, and obviously Jordan Lyles will be in the plans for 2015. Homegrown product Tyler Matzek shows promise. Rex Brothers needs to get his walk rate under control in the bullpen and they could use another strong arm in the bullpen, but Logan really can't be any worse in 2015 and beyond. The Rockies need a couple of strong starters to add to their rotation if they want to win more than 66 games next season.

Looking Beyond 2015

Prospect-wise, pitcher Jon Gray had an okay 2014 Double-A, and he has the potential to be a front-line starter. The Rockies will definitely be tracking his development closely. Eddie Butler could also be a very solid starter, as well, although there are scouts that still feel his future is in the bullpen, despite very strong AA numbers. Outfielder David Dahl is hitting well in the low minors, so he's a potential trade chip as he currently looks blocked in the Majors. Lefty pitcher Kyle Freeland, outfielder Raimel Tapia, and infielder Ryan McMahon could all be others to watch closely.

It will interesting to see just how different the Rockies approach to the offseason will be in 2014-15. The Rockies definitely have a few holes to fill. We'll see how they try and cover them, because the core is better than their win-loss record would have you believe.

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