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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Third Base

12/11/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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There’s no way this author can talk about the Red Sox third base situation without continuing to grieve over the loss of Travis Shaw. Alas, he was traded - along with three minor leaguers - to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Yes, that Tyler Thornburg… he of the lost 2017 season and replacement level 2018 season in 24 innings. He was so bad that the Red Sox didn’t even guarantee his $1.75 million contract for the 2019 season…

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has been raking at Miller Field, while all the while playing his usual brand of solid defense at third base and even second base. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 WAR in 2018! That’s while making the league minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, he’s due for another 2.6 WAR according to Steamer… Whoops…

The good news for the Red Sox is that master team-builder Dave Dombrowski is able to cover for his only major misstep with the team. The Sox have a very solid young player in Rafael Devers - who could be just as valuable as Shaw in 2019. They also have two young players that may be decent players at the hot corner at some point, as well. Let’s see what the Sox have here.


Rafael Devers

2019 Steamer Projection: 560 PA, .270/.328/.476, .340 wOBA, 7.1 batting runs, 0.8 baserunning runs, -2.6 fielding runs. 2.6 WAR

2019 ZiPS Projection:  .265/.320/.480, -6 defense, 1.9 WAR

Devers is only 22 years old. He had a 1 WAR season with a .240/.298/.433 batting line and 21 HR. That’s not bad for a 21 year old, who was probably a bit overmatched. His -13 Defensive Runs Saved and -5.2 UZR/150 show he wasn’t quite ready with the glove, either. If the projections are right and he becomes simply below average with the glove, he’s an above average player. ZiPS is probably right to be skeptical about his defense. Even then, he’s probably at least an average regular - which for the league minimum and his power upside, the Sox will be happy to take.

Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez are certain to see perhaps a dozen games apiece at third base. But, you really don’t want either holding down the position all year. The good news is that the Red Sox are not devoid of third base prospects.


Michael Chavis

2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.300/.439, -0.1 defense
2019 ZiPS Projection: .242/.299/.449, -1 defense, 1.1 WAR

Chavis isn’t even on Steamer’s radar to have much more than a 7 at-bat cup of coffee. However, it agrees with ZiPS that Chavis is very likely to be about what Devers was last year in 2019 if he played full-time in the Majors. Of course, he’s going to be 24 in August 2019. His defense is known to be shaky, too, which is why he’s been shifting towards first base. The good news is that Chavis could still have some value. He would actually worth be giving a shot if he shows promise at AAA and Devers is failing or hurt.

After all, Chavis did hit .303/.388/.508 in 139 AA at-bats and .273/.294/.545 in 34 AAA at-bats, with an 80-game PED suspension mixed in. The power is real, and he has enough plate discipline to not embarrass himself. If he can become a passable third baseman, or even first baseman, he actually does have a future. It could even be late 2019 or early 2020.


Bobby Dalbec

2019 Steamer Projection: .229/.295/.432, 0 defense

2019 ZiPS Projection: .200/.280/.407, 0 defense, 0.5 WAR

Dalbec probably has no business being in the MLB in 2019, but if he got 450 or so at-bats, he’s probably going to be fairly above replacement level. Of course, that’s considering neutral defense. Scouts consider his defense to be adequate and he has an above-average arm. So, netural defense is probably fine to consider.

In 2018, Dalbec destroyed A+ ball with a .256/.372/.573 and 26 HR in 419 plate appearances, albeit with a 31% strikeout rate. He hit .261.323.514 in 124 plate appearance, but with a 37% strikeout rate. Steamer is a bit more optimistic about Dalbec’s bat than ZiPS going into his age-24 season. The strikeouts are concerning, though.

If Dalbec can trim the strikeouts and fare OK at AAA, there’s still a possibility that Dalbec tastes the majors in 2020. At any rate, he’s the Sox #12 prospect at the moment.

Even after essentially giving away Travis Shaw, it seems like the Sox aren’t in that bad of shape. Of course, one of Chavis or Dalbec becoming at least a passable regular at either first or third base would be a grand development for the 2020 season. If both pan out, along with Devers, the Red Sox are in good shape. Otherwise, that Travis Shaw trade could haunt the Red Sox for awhile. Still, when that’s the worst move you make and still win a championship, you’re doing OK.


Red Sox Third Base: B-minus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Second Base

12/11/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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After Ian Kinsler didn’t hit for the Red Sox after being acquired by them late in the season, Boston is looking forward to the return of Dustin Pedroia in 2019. Not only is Pedroia coming off an injury, but he’s not getting any younger, either. The good news is that he projects to be a league average player, and if his knee is sufficiently healed, he could be better. The Sox also hope for more of the same from super-utility player Brock Holt and a rebound from Eduardo Nunez.

Dustin Pedroia  

2019 Steamer Projection: 518 PA, .272/.344/.390, .321 wOBA, -1.5 Batting Runs, -1.8 Baserunning Runs, 4.0 Fielding Runs, 2.0 WAR

Going into his age 35 season, it remains to be seen what Pedroia has left in the tank after missing most of 2017. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his batting line will be close to the Steamer projection, but many Sox fans will take the over if he’s healthy. Also, depending on his knee’s health, he could provide even more value on defense and hopefully, even be a positive on the basepaths.

He’s earning $15 million in 2019, so if he’s just a 2 win player, he’s earned it. He earns $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It’s not like Pedroia is an albatross, but it would be really nice to see him finish his career as at least a league-average regular before bowing out after 2021.


Brock Holt

2019 Steamer Projection: 105 PA .260/.340/.375, .315 wOBA, -0.80 batting runs, .1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.3 WAR

As a super-utility player is meant to do, Holt kept the Red Sox at least respectable at second base in 2018. He was actually 6th in position player WAR for the 2018 Red Sox. One of the best utility men in baseball in 2014 and 2015, he was mediocre in 2016 and terrible in 2017. Only 30 years of age, Holt is very likely to match his projection, and possibly beat it in overall value if he racks up the plate appearances. Struggles from Rafael Devers at third could mean more time for Holt, as well. He was worth 1.4 WAR in 2018, and it’s not impossible for him to be worth that again - although hopefully the majority of that value is distributed among other positions, too.

Eduardo Nunez

2019 Steamer Projection: 63 PA .284/.318/.424, .319 wOBA, -0.3 batting runs, -0.1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.2 WAR

Nunez was a great pickup for the 2016 Sox. It wasn’t hard to see why the Red Sox signed him to a $6 million one-year deal with a $5 million player option - which Nunez picked up in late October 2018. Unsurprisingly, Nunez isn’t expected to receive many plate appearances at second base with Pedroia and Holt around. If he does have a batting line close to his career average - which is what he’s projected to do - and continues to be neutral on the bases and in the field, he’ll be easily worth his $5 million. He still serves as insurance for Pedroia, as long as he doesn’t repeat a -14 Defensive Runs Saved at second...

Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Rodriguez are also in the second base picture, but if the team has to give them at-bats, something has gone wrong.  They are depth you hope you don’t find yourself having to test. Overall, this is a group that projects for about 2.5 WAR, and the over is not hard at all to see if Pedey is actually healthy.

2019 ZiPS Insights

With the release of the 2019 ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski, there are a few more projections to consider. The most interesting is the departing Ian Kinsler. He had a decent 2018 season overall, although he struggled badly with the bat with the Sox. He projects for .252/.317/.386 plus 8 defensive runs for 1.9 WAR over a full season. It’s unlikely they reunite with Pedroia locked up, though.

Farm hand Tony Renda projects about replacement level, as does Ivan De Jesus.  Chad La Guerra and Brett Netzer aren’t looking to help at the MLB level any time soon, either. Second base is definitely a position that has little depth after Pedroia and Holt - Nunez is a stretch as we saw in 2018 at the position. Still, if Pedroia is capable, this is a position where the Sox should be fine.

Red Sox Second Basemen - Solid B

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: First Base (1B)

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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In Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Red Sox have a roughly league-average platoon at first base. Moreland can play against right-handed pitching and Pearce can play against lefties, who he mashes. Sam Travis and Blake Swihart are in the mix there, as well.

The most interesting outside candidate is Michael Chavis, coming off PED suspension and mediocre results, who is projected for a .248/.300/.439 batting line. The good news is that the Steamer projections are fairly conservative in this author’s opinion. Let’s take a look.

Mitch Moreland

Steamer 2019 projection: 350 PA, .251/.325/.441.329 wOBA, 1.1 Batting Runs, -1.1 Baserunning Runs, 1.8 Fielding Runs, 0.7 WAR

Moreland was a shrewd signing by the Red Sox in the 2016 off season that worked out very well. His subsequent two-year deal has also worked out well, although you’d want more out of your starting first baseman than 0.6 WAR. In a pure platoon situation, it’s very possible that Moreland greatly outperforms his .251/.325/.441 batting line projection. In 2018, he hit only .242/.305/.379 against lefties and .246/.331/.450 against righties. He’s only earning $6.5 million in 2018, just as he did in 2017, so he’s not exactly breaking the bank. Also, he is a plus fielder. With a little luck and having Pearce around all season, he could break 1 WAR

Steve Pearce

Steamer 2019 projection: 280 PA, .266/.344/.470, .350 wOBA, 5.7 batting runs, -0.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.6 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Since Pearce is primarily a lefty masher, it’s not outrageous to expect about 1.1 WAR from Pearce. He’s making $6.25 million in 2019, about the same as Moreland. He’s a worse fielder, but if he mostly plays first, that won’t matter so much. Also, if he keeps up his improved walk rate from 2018, he’s likely even more valuable than this.

The other guys may not amount to much, although Chavis is interesting in that he projects for a nearly league-average batting line. He also can play third base, if erratically. If Chavis shows something this year in AAA, the Sox may call him up in 2019.

All in all, this is an above average group at first base. It’s hardly exciting, but there’s a little upside here. This is not an area the Sox have to work on right now, especially if Chavis / Sam Travis can essentially replace Moreland in 2020.

Red Sox First Basemen: C-plus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Catchers

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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As a group, the Boston Red Sox are a bit underwhelming at the catching position. Steamer projects the three catchers on the Red Sox roster - Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart - for 1.6 WAR. That’s a bit below league average, although both Vazquez and Leon are above average catchers defensively. Of course, Vazquez and Leon combined for NEGATIVE 1.7 WAR last season, when the team won 108 games. It’s most likely that they don’t repeat that. Let’s take a look.


Christian Vazquez

2019 Steamer: 384 PA .256/.305/.367, .293 wOBA, -10.0 batting runs, -0.8 Baserunning Runs, 1.7 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Vazquez had a dreadful year with the bat in 2018, but it was mostly due to a .237 batting average on balls in play (career .293 BABIP). He’ll probably never be a fantastic hitter, but the Sox hope he’s more like his 2017 with the bat. If he hits .290/.330/.400, he’ll be about a league average catcher with his glovework and positive pitch framing marks. Even if he’s closer to .260/.300/.370, he’s still a decent “real life” catcher, although you wouldn’t want to touch him in fantasy baseball..

Sandy Leon

2019 Steamer: 192 PA, .225/.285/.346 .277 wOBA, -7.5 Batting Runs, -0.5 Baserunning Runs, 1.0 Fielding Runs, 0.3 WAR

Like Vazquez, Sandy Leon had a terrible regular season with the bat in 2018. Also like Vazquez, he had horrible luck on batted balls in play (.226 BABIP / .290 BABIP career). While it’s unlikely he’ll have another year like his 2016 - .310/.369/.476 in 78 games for 2.5 WAR (!) - it’s not impossible.  Still, his Steamer projection is in line with his career numbers, and 0.3 WAR is acceptable.

Blake Swihart

2019 Steamer: 64 PA, .235/.300/.353 .287 wOBA, -2.0 Batting Runs, 0.1 Baserunning Runs -0.1 Fielding Runs, 0.1 WAR

Swihart is a fairly forgotten man at this point. It’s very likely he greatly outperforms that projection. He’s expected to remain at catcher, although he’s been passable in left field and first base. The bar is so low for catchers at this point that if he impresses in spring training, he may even be trade bait if the Sox have no room for him on the roster - which is likely.

While catcher is definitely not a strength for the 2019 Red Sox, it’s very easy for them to beat what they got out of the position in 2018. It’s not a position of clear weakness that the Sox need to address, and Vazquez still has upside. Plus, Leon has shown the tendency to get hot, so this could end up being a lot better than the C-minus grade we have to give them right now.

Red Sox Catchers: C-minus

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