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Nathan Eovaldi Re-Signs with the Red Sox

12/6/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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When the Boston Red Sox re-signed pitcher (and playoff hero) Nathan Eovaldi to a four-year, $67.5 million contract, it gave me pause. That’s not to say that it’s a bad contract. After all, Eovaldi was highly sought after. When healthy, he’s one of the better mid-rotation starters out there. So, is this actually a good contract?

From a pure on-paper baseball perspective, this is an awesome move. This fills out the Red Sox rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi. Brian Johnson is still there, too, and he’s a decent “sixth” starter. Also, if Eovaldi’s arm holds up, he’ll be an anchor for the rotation along with the recently-extended Chris Sale after Rick Porcello leaves in free agency - although not a given, it’s very likely he will leave for “greener” pastures.

Let’s look at it as far as projections are concerned. Eovaldi projects for a 3 WAR in 2019 according ot Steamer. That feels about right. A 3.75 ERA, 8.3 K/9 (strikeout rate), and 2.3 BB/9 (walk rate) aren’t ridiculous to expect - although I’ll point out that his career walk rate is 2.74 BB/9. If he keeps the home runs down like he has throughout his career, though, a few more walks doesn’t hurt him that badly.

We’ll say that a “win” or 1 WAR of value is worth $8 million. So, 3 WAR/season would be worth about $24 million on the open market. Of course, Eovaldi has had two Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgeries in his career. So, there is certainly a discount on that injury uncertainty - but that really is true of any pitcher. At only 29 years of age in 2019, we can easily project him on a gentle aging curve

2019: 3 WAR (age 29)
2020: 2.7 WAR (age 30)
2021: 2.4 WAR (age 31)
2022: 2.1 WAR (age 32)

These projections do “guess” that he’s going to wear down as he reaches his age-32 season. But, as we’ve seen in the past, successful comebacks from Tommy John surgeries do tend to help a pitcher’s overall longevity. So, he could be a 3 win pitcher every year, and this contract is an absolute bargain. It’s not insane to think.

Of course, with that basic projection, you’re talking about a pitcher who’s worth 10.2 WAR over four years, or roughly 2.5 WAR. That makes a $16-17 million annual salary still feel slightly like a bargain. So, why is there skepticism?

Simply put, most long-term contracts for pitchers tend to look pretty bad. Look at Jordan Zimmermann, who signed with the Tigers for 5 years and $110 million,  after being a very solid pitcher for the Nationals. Eovaldi’s stuff is probably a bit better than Zimmermann’s, but look how far south Zimmermann went. His contract is now an albatross.

Of course, Eovaldi is owed about two-thirds of the money as Zimmermann, and Dombrowski didn’t offer that contract, as he joined the Red Sox a few months before that contract was signed. When Dombrowski signs a player, he feels the risk is worth it. (Miguel Cabrera’s monster mega-deal was forced on him by management in Detroit.) We’ve seen how well J.D. Martinez’s contract is working out so far - and that contract has an opt-out clause that is likely to be used.

Eovaldi’s contract isn’t going to kill the Red Sox, even if he suddenly declines - of which there isn’t any indication right now. This is a move that is made with 2020, 2021, and 2022 in mind. While this guaranteed salary does push the Sox close to their limit with offseason spending, it’s highly likely they don’t resign Kimbrel - and this was probably the better use of money anyway.

While I’m not sure that Eovaldi actually meets those fairly reasonable projections, this is a good deal on paper. Baseball experts agreed that Eovaldi would probably get a four-year deal in the $60 million range because of his age and past results. This isn’t an overpay for a World Series hero. Eovaldi is good and good right now. He’s not old, going into what should be the prime of his career. In fact, in relation to recent deals, even the very solid Patrick Corbin who got a ton from the Nationals, he’s actually a bargain.

Updated 3/29/2019

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Kenny Lofton - MLB Baseball Player Bio

10/21/2014

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
Kenny Lofton Texas Rangers
Kenny Lofton may never be a Baseball Hall of Famer, but he was one heck of a player. Lofton would compile 68.1 Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which is a total higher than a good deal of Hall of Fame position players, including Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield. Granted, much of that WAR total comes from simply playing almost 17 seasons in the Big Leagues. But, he was a fairly consistent player, and even in his age 40 season, he was still quite productive, to the point that he probably could have played one or two more seasons.

Lofton didn't reach 3000 hits; he had 2428 career hits). But, he walked quite a bit (career .372 OBP) and stole a ton of bases (622 career). One interesting thing to note about Lofton is that after 1999, he was never again an All-Star. Yet, Lofton would continue to play at an All-Star level, despite suffering various injuries and not hitting above .300 for the most part anymore. So, while Lofton's OBP and isolated power levels (slugging percentage minus batting average) remained rather constant, his speed steadily diminished and his value became less and less clear to many teams.

Lofton only put up two 3+ WAR seasons after 1999 (2000 and 2005), but he was still worth almost 2 WAR in those seasons despite not playing full seasons. He wasn't quite the center fielder in the second half of his career, but he was still useful. He wasn't a complete defensive negative until 2006 and 2007. Even then, his bat was still valuable and he could still steal 20-30 bases.

Kenny Lofton is one of the best examples of a player that had a crazy early peak and simply hung around for another 5-7 years but still added considerable value to his ball-clubs. He really bounced around after leaving Cleveland after the 2001 season - although he'd return at the end of the 2007 season to help the Indians in their playoff run. He played for the Giants, White Sox, Pirates, Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, and Rangers before rejoining the Indians at the end. On all of those teams, he was well above replacement level. Lofton was still a starter-caliber player until at least 2005, yet he wasn't considered as one. If he'd been given more playing time, it's likely he WOULD be going into the Hall of Fame without a doubt.

Kenny Lofton was one of the best and most consistent ballplayers that I ever watched growing up. If it were up to me, he'd be in the Hall, as he's somehow become one of the most underrated players of his generation.

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons


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