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Mets - Mariners Trade Analysis: Who Won the Deal?

12/3/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Much digital ink has been spilled about the blockbuster Mets - Mariners trade that sent Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20 million to New York for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and three decent prospects - Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista. On the surface, this looks like this trade could be a win for either side. On paper, this looks like a fair trade.

The net result is that the Mets get Robinson Cano for essentially 5 years and $63.5 million - roughly $12.7 million annual average value. They also get one more year of Edwin Diaz at the MLB league minimum. The Mariners eat a good chunk of Cano’s contract by absorbing Jay Bruce’s and Anthony Swarzak’s contracts and send $20 million or so to help pay for years three, four, and five remaining on Cano’s deal.

For the Mets, this clearly looks like a win-now move. They get one of the best young closers in baseball, plus a guy who even at 36 is still an above average second baseman who will likely still be at least league average at 37. Plus, Cano can slide over to first and still be a productive player likely at 38. He’s probably a lost cause for the last two years of that deal. Diaz, on the other hand, comes with 2019 plus three additional years of team control in the form of arbitration eligible seasons.

While Diaz could get pricey, he is probably well worth whatever salaries he gets in arbitration, as long as he doesn’t flame out. Cano gives the Mets a pretty good player while dumping two players who were in dire need of a change in scenery. The Mariners look like they’re going backwards - and they probably are - but as we’ll see as we break this down, they may end up coming out ahead here.


The Mets’ End & Robinson Cano

Obviously, Cano loved the idea of returning to the Big Apple, even if it’s in Queens. Cano instantly makes the Mets a better team by perhaps 3 wins in 2019 and probably 2 wins in 2020 - taking at bats away from the now departed Bruce in the lineup essentially. As we’ve said already, the last three years of that deal may be a lost cause, but while he’s going to decline, it may not be as sharp as the majority of players.

Steamer thinks that Cano will be worth about 3.1 WAR in 2019 with a .283./343    .460    slash line, assuming slightly below average defense. There’s no reason for me to believe that he will be much less than average at first, second, or third base, wherever he ends up playing. But, I think that 3 WAR is reasonable. That’s worth about $24 million, or what he’s actually making on an average annual basis.

If Cano is worth 2 WAR in 2020 and 1 WAR in 2021, that’s $24 million in value. So, can the Mets get about $15.5 million out of his last two seasons? As a bench bat hitting from the left side with power, it’s possible he ekes out a win or win and a half in those last two years. That’s still a slight negative. But, when you consider Bruce and Swarzak dead weight - money you were going to pay anyway over the next couple of seasons, plus the Mariners cash - you’re almost breaking even.

Because I’m a bit more bullish on Cano’s defense, I’d say a 4 WAR season isn’t out of the question in 2019 or 2020. If he has a great 2019 and the Mets fans are smiling and he defies his age at 38 in 2020, this trade is already looking fair for the Mets.

The great news is, this is before you even count Diaz!


Edwin Diaz

It’s well-known that Edwin Diaz was a major part of the Mariners being an extremely lucky team in one-run games in 2018. He was worth 3.5 WAR, a feat that would make him “worth” about $28 million on a one-year deal on the open market. That’s assuming that a 1 WAR player can fetch about $8 million a year. Of course, can we really expect that sort of performance again?

Popular projection system Steamer projects Diaz for only 1.3 WAR next season. The general consensus is that he’s probably more of a 2 WAR player next year even taking a step back. If we’re conservative and say he’s worth 2 WAR in year one, 1.5 WAR in year two, 1 WAR in year three, and 0.5 WAR in year four, that’s $40 million of value over 4 years. His arbitration salaries will likely not amount to that, so that would be considered “excess value” which is always a good thing.

Even if Cano doesn’t live up to being a league average player in each of the three seasons overall - counting 2022 as a potential wash - this still looks to be an even deal for the Mets with a slight chance they come out ahead in the end.

But, even with the Mariners apparently going backwards… are they really?



The Mariners’ End

Jay Bruce was worth 0.1 WAR in 94 games for the Mets in 2018. Yes, that’s pretty dreadful. But in 2017, he was worth 2.6 WAR for the Mets and Indians. That led to a contract that brought Bruce back to New York and paid him $13 million in 2018 and will pay him $13 million in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, Bruce will be 32. He’s not necessarily washed up.There’s a cause for optimism in that the Mariners scouts saw something that will make him a useful role player on the 2019 and 2020 teams.

The real hope is that Bruce is able to be some sort of respectable in 2019 and 2020, enough to potentially flip him for a fringe prospect as a bench bat for the stretch run in 2020. After all, Bruce’s power is still in there. While .223/.310/.370 is hardly a good slash line, his 11.4% walk rate was a career high and his 20.8% strikeout rate isn’t bad at all - one of his better seasons in that regard actually.

Steamer projects Bruce to be worth 0.5 WAR in 119 games with a .229/.304/.425 slash line which amounts to something like league average but with decidedly below average defense. That’s not worth anywhere close to $13 million in value. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility he hits slightly better and is worth closer to a win. Considering he’s sharing at-bats with Ben Gamel and Ryon Healy means that he may actually - believe it or not - not be a negative. With the Mariners picking up Carlos Santana, too, in a separate trade, Bruce may never have to face a left-handed pitcher in a big spot at all.

Dee Gordon will slide to second base now, presumably. Bruce will probably find at bats at first base, left field, and designated hitter against predominantly right-handed pitchers. It’s not impossible that Bruce hits .240 with his usual good walk rate and manageable strikeout rate with his typical power. He’ll probably never be worth more than 2 WAR total over the next two years, but that gives you about $16 million in value.

Keep in mind that Bruce could catch fire and be worth 3 WAR. Then another team may be willing to take him if the Mariners eat some of his salary in exchange for a fringe prospect. That’s probably what the Mariners are hoping. But, if he’s a net-zero, the Mariners will live with two years of keeping him on the roster as a decent power option from the bench.


Anthony Swarzak

Swarzak has been mightily inconsistent. However, there’s plenty of reason to believe that 2018 was just an unlucky year. After all, a .344 batting average on balls in play is pretty unusual. While Swarzak had a 6.15 ERA and 6 home runs surrendered in only 26 ⅓ innings, his expected FIP (xFIP) was only 4.33. xFIP takes into account the high BABIP and HR/9 rate which aren’t really sustainable.

Positive regression leads projection system Steamer to see a 0.5 WAR mark for Swarzak in 2019. That’s with a 3.64 ERA in 65 innings. While that doesn’t live up to his $8 million salary, keep in mind this guy has been a shutdown reliever before. He may easily recoup $4 million in value here. Plus, it’s only for one year. He may not become the closer of the Mariners, but he well may, being probably the best reliever left on the roster. That’s especially true with Juan Nicasio and James Pazos being traded.

So far, it looks like the Mariners are only recouping about $20 million in value out of the $36.5 million in salary they’re taking on. But, these are short-term commitments.

It’s the other three guys that could make this trade a win for the Mariners.

Jarred Kelenic

Kelenic is considered the “get” of the deal for the Mariners. He’s expected to be a regular contributor by 2021, so he’s a couple years away. He’s still raw, but his raw power, arm, and speed make him intriguing. It’s too early to project him accurately, but his debut should come when the Mariners are truly ready to content in a couple of years. That was the idea here.

Justin Dunn

Dunn is very likely a useful pitcher for the Mariners by 2020, maybe even sometime in 2019. He’s got a good fastball and slider and decent enough curveball. Improvements of his command and of his changeup will determine if he’ll be a mid-rotation starter, back-end starter, or bullpen guy. Even if all they get out of Dunn is a decent reliever, the Mariners could make out well. It’s also possible that the former first-round pick becomes a trade chip.

Gerson Bautista

Bautista may be the most interesting guy in this trade right now. His numbers from 2018 look terrible, but they are based on extremely unlucky numbers on balls in play.  His 5 game debut with the Mets last year was atrocious. But, this guy has a big fastball, a decent changeup, and a developing slider. It’s possible that Bautista becomes the Mariners’ closer of the future, in which case losing Diaz doesn’t feel so bad.

The Salary Relief

The real reason that the Mariners made this trade is simple: it was a salary dump. The Mariners save something like $63.5 million over the next five years. The majority of that is in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This means that the Mariners could potentially sign an all-star caliber player to a three-year deal in those years. They also get two major league players who may never play up to their contracts, but could catch lightning in a bottle with one or both of them and flip them for fringe prospects.

Also, while Diaz was making peanuts in 2019, it’s not unrealistic that Diaz was going to make $8-9 million in 2020 in arbitration, and potentially $10-12 million in 2021 and 2022. While great closers are great, obviously, they are not musts for rebuilding teams. Also, as we’ve seen, Bautista could end up being Edwin Diaz lite. Maybe not, but that’s the risk you take in these deals.

What we do know is that the Mariners saved a ton of money. Also, Bruce and Swarzak were buy-low candidates who could certainly just be washed up, but it’s just as likely they’re still useful. They’re selling high on Diaz, and a lot of people think that Diaz alone could’ve netted more. But in the end, the financial flexibility cannot be overstated.


Overall Grade of the Mets-Mariners trade.

I’m actually going to say that I definitely prefer the Mariners side of this trade. A lot of people have graded the Mariners return as a B and the Mets return a C. That’s because three of those five Cano years could be a disaster. Also, Diaz could flame out, although unlikely. The Mariners get three really intriguing young guys. Also, my personal feeling is Bruce and Swarzak are being discounted as mere replacement level players who may actually have real value left in the tank. They will absorb at-bats and innings that the Mariners will have to make up somewhere anyway, without blocking anyone.

As I’m writing this, the Mariners have also traded shortstop Jean Segura, plus relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos to the Phillies for shortstop J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana, saving them even more money. The rebuild for the Mariners is well underway, and honestly, this team may not suffer nearly as badly as people might think.
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Pedro Martinez: Baseball Hall of Famer

10/13/2014

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by Richard Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Is Pedro a Hall-of-Fame Pitcher? Yes!

As one who grew up watching the exploits of Pedro Martinez on the mound for the Boston Red Sox, I can tell you without a doubt that he is the greatest pitcher I have ever watched. I can quote a bunch of numbers from Baseball Reference that are pretty impressive. But there are others that will say he only had five truly elite seasons. Looking at the raw numbers, that argument could certainly be made.

Overall, over 18 seasons of Major League Baseball, Pedro accumulated 409 starts (219-100 W-L), 3154 strikeouts against 760 walks (4.15 K/BB per 9 innings) and 82.6 WAR.


Pedro's Early Career

Pedro began his MLB career with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1992. He had one start and one relief appearance. In 1993, he was given a full-time bullpen job. While he did make 2 starts, he appeared in 65 games overall, and over 107 innings, he recorded 119 strikeouts, but also collected 57 walks. All in all, Pedro was worth almost 3 WAR just as a reliever. He clearly had talent, and looked like he deserved a shot to prove himself in the starting rotation.

That chance would happen not in Los Angeles for Pedro, as he was traded to the Montreal Expos for second baseman Delino Deshields. This proved to be a steal for then General Manager Dan Duquette of Montreal. In 1994, the strike-shortened season, Pedro was a part of a pretty good Expos team, and made 23 starts with decent results. He finished with a 3.42 ERA, As a 22-year old, though, he was still a bit raw. He walked fewer batters than he had the season before, he also hit 11 batters. As it would turn out, though, it was because Pedro was never afraid to pitch inside, something that would make him a very special pitcher.

In 1995 and 1996, Pedro was a good, if not spectacular pitcher for the Expos. He was solid, but still struggled with his command a bit. Still, it was clear he had the talent to be an ace, something that in 1997 finally was realized.

The Greatest 5 Pitching Seasons on Record?

Pedro's first truly dominant season in 1997 was one of the most dominant seasons on record for any pitcher. This included 13 complete games and 4 shutouts. His baseball card stats were phenomenal: 17-8, 1.90 ERA in 241 1/3 innings with 305 strikeouts against only 67 walks (for an 8.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference.) This earned him his first of 3 Cy Young awards.

This dominant led the Boston Red Sox to trade for Pedro after that season, surrendering top pitching prospects Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. While his first season in Boston was nothing like his 1997 season, he still finished second in Cy Young voting. His numbers were definitely ace-worthy as well: 19-7, 2.89 ERA (63% below league average), 251 strikeouts to 67 walks, and was worth 6.9 WAR to Boston. He would be worth 45 WAR more to the Red Sox over the next six seasons (including an injury-plagued 2001 season). Four of those seasons may be four of the best pitching seasons (especially with the high-powered offenses of the American League) of all-time.

The next two years, 1999 and 2000, would be the two best of Pedro's career. In 1999, Pedro had a win loss record of 23-4 in 29 starts with 5 complete games. He led the league with a career high 313 strikeouts against only 37 walks, a rare feat to be sure. He was worth 9 and a half wins that year to the Red Sox (9.5 WAR). The next season in 2000, he had a record of 18-6 again in 29 starts, but an even lower ERA and 284 strikeouts against 32 walks. He won the Cy Young Award in the American League both seasons. In 2000, he had the highest WAR of his career (11.4 WAR), adding about 11 wins to his team that year.

To put a WAR of 11.4 in perspective, Babe Ruth had a 11.5 WAR in 1920 and an 11.4 WAR season in 1924, Lou Gehrig had a 11.5 WAR in 1927. The last pitcher to post a WAR total that high was Roger Clemens in 1997 with 11.8 WAR for the Blue Jays. The only other pitchers beside Walter Johnson in the 1910's and 1920's to post higher single-season WAR totals are Dwight Gooden (13 WAR in 1985), Steve Carlton (12.1 WAR in 1972), and Bob Gibson (11.7 WAR in 1968). Johnson, Gibson, and Carlton are in the Hall of Fame. For awhile, it appeared Gooden could have been, as well, were it not for his personal issues.

Pedro would have an injury-marred 2001, but still managed to start 18 games and produce a 4.9 WAR. It's very likely barring the injury he could have had yet another Cy Young Award caliber season. He would return to form in 2002, however, with a 20-4 record and a 2.26 ERA (best in the league) and a 6.2 WAR.

However, it was clear that the injury had taken its toll on his strikeout rate, as he struck out "only" 239 batters in 199 innings. His walk rate was still excellent, however, as he walked only 40 in those innings. But he would not win the Cy Young Award that year, or in fact, ever again, as he lost the crown to Barry Zito. Looking at the numbers, however, Zito was not really as good as Pedro. Zito won 3 more games and made 5 more starts. He didn't strikeout as many as Pedro (182) and walked more (78) in 229 innings (only 30 more than Pedro).


In 2003, Pedro had the last of his 5 most dominant seasons. For a second straight season, his strikeout rate fell slightly and he walked a few more batters than usual. Still he went 14-4 (a record very deceiving because he received a great deal of no-decisions that year) with 2.22 ERA in 29 starts. He did increase his WAR total, however, with a mark of 7.8 WAR. He'd never reach that mark again.

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The End of Pedro's Dominance

Without a doubt, 2004 marked the end of Pedro's run of dominance. While he was still a 5 WAR pitcher, he was clearly nowhere near the ace that he once was. Curt Schilling assumed that role that year with his 7.5 WAR. Schilling won 21 games against 6 losses, and Pedro won 16 against 9 losses. While win-loss record is not always indicative of true pitching performance, in Pedro's case, he was becoming inconsistent. A 3.90 ERA was not a number you would see from Pedro. It would actually come out to be the third highest season total of his career.

After the season, the Red Sox and Pedro decided to move on, and Pedro signed a lucrative four year deal with the New York Mets. In 2005, on paper, Pedro looked great for the Mets. But for the first time since 2005, he failed to strike out at least a batter per inning, although he walked fewer batters than in 2004. He was still an ace, though aging. But in 2006, the wheels began to fall off. He only pitched 137 innings in 23 starts and had a roughly league average 4.48 ERA. He was still a "good" pitcher, but his overall dominance was clearly gone and his arm began to really bother him at that point.

2007 would be a relatively lost season for Pedro, him having only 5 starts, although he pitched fairly well in those starts. In 2008, everything fell apart for Pedro and in twenty starts was practically a replacement-level scrub (-0.5 WAR). That looked like the very end for Pedro.
Pedro Martinez with the Philadephia Phillies
However, in the later half of 2009, Pedro decided to make a comeback with the Phillies. After doing fairly well in the minors, he was called up to the big club and made it into the playoffs. While he wasn't spectacular down the stretch for the Phillies, he was certainly useful, and won his only start in the NLCS. However, the Yankees beat him in both of his starts in the World Series on their way to the World Series title. That was the end for Pedro.


Pedro Compared to Other Hall of Famers

Pedro's career 80.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) puts him in 51st place all-time. In and of itself, that's a pretty special accomplishment. This puts him on par with Robin Roberts (career 80.1 WAR) and not far off from Gaylord Perry (career 84.5 WAR) and Steve Carlton (career 84.6 WAR). As all of those pitchers are in the Hall of Fame, Pedro's in very good company.

Even if you don't buy into the WAR statistic, looking at the career numbers of Roberts, Perry, and Carlton show that they pitched many more starts than Pedro. For Pedro to be able to amass the same Career WAR as pitchers with 600+ starts in only 409 starts is very impressive. Also, take into account that a good chunk of those later starts were with him wearing down considerably. Even though he had five truly dominant seasons, he also had five or six pretty good ones, on which most teams he would be considered an ace or at least a #2 starter.

Consider that he had 5 out of this world seasons and 5 All-Star level seasons on top of that, you could say that Pedro really had 10 very good years overall. He gave his teams tons of value whenever he pitched, except for that dismal 2008 season with the Mets. Even taking his lost season and that into account, he basically produced the same value as his potential Hall-of-Fame peers in far fewer starts.

Ryan Roberts had 609 starts over 19 years. Perry had 690 starts over 22 years. Carlton had 709 starts over 24 years. Pedro generally out-performed Roberts in 200 fewer starts and did almost what Carlton and Perry did in 300 fewer starts. Baseball fans can all agree that Roberts, Carlton, and Perry were all great pitchers that belong in the Hall of Fame. While he isn't quite to the level of Bert Blyleven (89.3), Randy Johnson (96.3) or Greg Maddux (101.6), he's in the neighborhood.

So by the overall numbers overall, he was probably the fifth best pitcher of his era, if you include Roger Clemens 100+ career WAR. But no one had 5 seasons like Pedro did. No one dominated the baseball scene the way he did. Watching Pedro pitch was watching a masterpiece almost every time he took the mound.

The memories alone are probably what make us think he was the greatest of all time. As we can now see, his top seasons most certainly were among some of the greatest of all time for pitching (by WAR standards). However, he's not quite the greatest of all time. He's still worthy of being in there, and in 2015, Pedro would indeed become enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in his first chance.

Since retiring, Pedro continues to work with young pitchers and does commentary on baseball broadcasts for TBS.

Thanks for such an awesome career, Pedro!


Photo credits: All pictures courtesy of Wikimedia Commons


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Should the New York Mets Trade a Pitcher or Daniel Murphy?

10/1/2014

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by Richard Rowell, Sports Break
PictureDaniel Murphy - Image: Wikimedia Commons; UCInternational
There has been speculation that the New York Mets will consider trading picther Bartolo Colon in the off-season. This makes some sense, as he’s earning $11 million in 2015 and will be going into his age-42 season. That isn’t to say he was bad for the Mets, though – he was more than okay.  

Colon was a useful pitcher in 2014 for the Mets for $9 million, although Baseball-Reference has him being only worth 0.5 WAR. However based on his miniscule walk rate (1.3 walks per 9 innings) and decent if not great strikeout rate (6.72 K/9) he was about a league average pitcher this year according to FanGraphs – at 2.1 WAR. That’s perfectly acceptable at a $9 million free agent. But the Mets want to free up some salary room, especially as Colon’s salary rises to $11 million in 2015. So if they can get decent salary relief in a trade with Colon while acquiring some promising piece, it’s worth a shot.

However, ESPN’s Adam Rubin suggests that he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee be traded this offseason. Why the Mets would trade Niese is beyond me. The durable left-hander has had a very good, if not spectacular season, a bad 9-11 win-loss record, but a 3.40 ERA in 188 innings (with a 3.67 FIP to back it up!). He’s no ace but he’s a perfectly good back-end starter only due $7 million next season, and $9 million in 2016. For your #3 or #4 starter, that’s perfectly acceptable.

Dillon Gee, whoever, would be a good sell-high candidate. His 4.00 ERA in 22 starts seems perfectly acceptable for a mid-rotation starter, but his 4.52 FIP tells a different story. He made $3.6 million in 2014 and is due for an arbitration raise. There are plenty of teams looking for back-end rotation help, so if you get a decent youngster in return, he’s not a bad candidate to move while his results still look better than his actual performance would dictate. You don’t want to pay $5 million plus to a replacement level pitcher when you have some guy named Matt Harvey coming back and Jacob DeGrom and Zack Wheeler very much a part of this 2015 rotation.

Daniel Murphy continues to be one of the more under-the-radar players in baseball. He’s an All-Star caliber player that finally got his due in 2014. He’s not an amazing hitter or a great glove man, but he adds considerable value on the base-paths and is just a solid every-day player. But after earning $5.7 million in 2014 and being due a considerable raise in 2015 before becoming a free agent after the season, he does seem to be tempting trade bait. Considering how much of a dearth of second base talent is available, he could fetch a decent package in return. They may be better suited to waiting until the 2015 trade deadline, however. We shall see.

In any case, the Mets have some interesting players to watch and see if the Mets decide to retain them long-term or jettison them for salary relief, role players, minor leaguers or some combination of the three.



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