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The Jean Segura Trade: Mariners & Phillies Swap Assets

12/4/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Some baseball fans may be surprised that the Mariners traded their all-star shortstop Jean Segura to the Phillies for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. But, as the Mariners are clearly in a rebuilding stage, it makes sense to move whatever trade chips you have in order to aim for the future.

But many have said that the Mariners return doesn’t look right. Of course, I plenty to say about that.

The trade:

Phillies get:
Jean Segura
Juan Nicasio
James Pazos

Mariners get:
J.P. Crawford
Carlos Santana


You may wonder, why would the Mariners trade their All-Star caliber shortstop? He’s arguably one of the better free agent signings of recent years. Well, he is making $17 million for 2019, 2020, and 2021, with an option for 2022 that has a $1 million buyout.

Plus, you shed a reliever about to make $9 million in 2019 - like you need that on a rebuilding team. Pazos may still have promise and is cheap and controllable. And, while Nicasio had a 6 ERA and knee troubles in 2018, his high strikeout rate and low walk rate suggest he’s actually worth that $9 million if healthy in 2019.

But then, the Mariners take on Santana’s $42 million and an unproven shortstop with upside not quite that of what Segura is in the middle of doing. This trade doesn’t look as good for the Mariners as the trade with the Mets did in the end. But, outside of obvious cost savings in the long run, what is this trade really?


Phillies Get Jean Segura

The Phillies are in win-now mode as their rebuild is ahead of schedule. The Phillies get out of the mistake they made with Santana and move young slugger Rhys Hoskins out of left field and to first base where he belongs. They also get the shortstop they need right now in Segura, who is much different than the - supposedly - on-base and glove-first Crawford.

Segura is far from expensive when you consider he’s a 3 win shortstop. He only made $9 million in 2018, and will earn $14.2 million a year from 2019 through 2022. He also has a $17 million option for 2023 with a $1 million buyout. He’s going into his age-29 season and is projected for about 2.6 WAR in 2019 by Steamer. That means he is looking to decline, so I will easily take the over on this projection, as will the Phillies.

But, even if that projection is spot on and even if he declines slightly each year going forward - something like 2.6 WAR in 2019, 2.3 WAR in 2020, 2 WAR in 2021, and 1.7 WAR in 2022, that’s still a total of  9.6 WAR, which would be worth something like $76 million over 4 years on the open market. They’ll only owe him $58 million or so. This is an excellent contract.

Really, the only issue with Segura is that he’s considered to be a disturbance in the clubhouse. He’s apparently not a very well-liked player. The Phillies don’t seem to have any issues with his makeup, though. So, the Mariners gave up a really good player. However, $14.2 million is a lot to pay for a win-now shortstop when you’re not in win-now mode.

Let’s also remember that the Mariners get the Phillies’ shortstop in return. We’ll get to him in a bit.

Phils get Nicasio and Pazos

Nicasio did have a knee issue, but he’s a known quantity. He was once a useful starter who’s become a more useful relever. The Mariners didn’t really need a guy making $9 million though. However, the Phillies can use him. Also, they are essentially eating the $9 million he’s earning in exchange for getting Segura. The good news for the Phillies is that he’s probably a strong contributor.

Pazos has promise, and unlike Nicasio who’s probably a buy-low candidate, he’s a sell-high candidate here. He makes absorbing Nicasio’s salary a little more tolerable perhaps. When you’re building for 2021, the Mariners are not going to need to stockpile relievers anyway. But, the Phillies could use him as a lefty out of their pen for a couple of years and be happy about it. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Between Nicasio and Pazos, the Phillies probably gain 0.5 a win. So, when you consider that even a slight disappointment from Segura is still surplus value, this is even better.


Mariners get JP Crawford

Crawford has a lot of upside which hasn’t been evident at the major league level so far. But Crawford could easily provide pretty much the same value as Segura in the long run, but in a different way. While Segura is contact oriented with average-ish defense, Crawford is seen as a plus defender with strong on-base skills. They are both valuable, just in different ways. Crawford is also younger and much, much cheaper.

Crawford is only looking at his age-24 season in 2019, meaning he’s not even yet in his prime! Steamer projects him for a .228/.321/.361 batting line while being about 4 runs above average on defense. That’s good for a 1.9 WAR in 146 games. That’s while making $555,000 in 2019. That’s not what Segura is doing, of course, but that’s almost a league average shortstop for next to nothing. Plus, his first year of arbitration is in 2021. Right there, the Mariners save about $27 million over the next two years.

However, the money savings isn’t really the main draw here. Crawford has shown flashes with both the glove and the bat. Scouts agree that he still has some modest raw power he could grow into. If J.P. pops a few more home runs or becomes more steady on defense, Crawford is easily a 3 win player, about what Segura is expected to be for the next couple of years. In arbitration, Crawford will likely not attain anywhere near $14.2 million in 2021 or 2022 by arbitration.

Of course, the Mariners may decide to sign Crawford to a team-friendly deal. If Crawford becomes more of a glove-first player, they will get a real bargain. That’s exactly what the Mariners are counting on. It’s not that they didn’t like Segura. It’s just that Crawford could offer the same value for less, and there’s still upside.

Carlos Santana

Santana is hardly a negative, really. In fact, he will likely replace a lot of the lost offensive runs from losing Segura. He actually gives the Mariners lineup an anchor outside of Mitch Haniger. Remember, this is a team that just lost Nelson Cruz. He basically fills that role.

Santana is due $17 million in 2019 and $17.5 million in 2020. He’s also due a signing bonus of $3,333,333 in each of those seasons. There’s also a $500,000 buyout on a team option for $17.5 million in 2021. Essentially, he’s owed $40.5 million. But, if you take Nicasio’s $9 million out of that exchange, that becomes closer to $31.5 million.

So, you’re basically paying Santana $11 million in 2019 and $20.5 million in 2020. At 33, Santana still projects as a 2.5 WAR player in 2019 and probably a 2 WAR player in 2020. For that money, and considering he can DH, that’s pretty good. Also, Santana was actually a neutral defensive player at first base  in 2018. So, he’s actually not a negative in the field.

Santana still walks a ton, strikes out less than he walks for the most part, and hits 20-25 home runs a year. That isn’t quite what Nelson Cruz just gave the Mariners, but it’s good enough. You’re not getting a better deal to anchor your lineup for the next couple of seasons.



Did The Mariners Get Better or Worse?

On paper, if you trust in the projections, the Mariners are probably better without Segura if you consider Santana’s steady offensive presence and Crawford still being useful. Of course, the Phillies are a better team with Segura right now than Crawford and don’t actually get worse without Santana, as Rhys Hoskins will no longer butcher in left field (-24 DRS in 2018!)

Essentially, this is a redistribution of resources. The Mariners save a significant amount of money in the next couple of seasons and only have to give some of that money to Crawford in 2021 and 2022 if he’s good. Of course, Crawford could never pan out. But, I still say the Mariners aren’t in that bad of shape. They may be slightly worse on paper, but they gained financial flexibility.

Did the Phillies Get a Lot Better?

Considering that Crawford was worth only 0.5 WAR in 2017 and 0.3 WAR in 2018 for the Phillies, Segura is an obvious upgrade. Rhys Hoskins can now slug from first base, which opens left field up for the underwhelming Nick Williams who at least won’t give away 2 wins of value in the field. The Phillies lose Santana who was about a league-average first baseman, but that’s made up by the gains at shortstop and the addition-by-subtraction of moving Hoskins to first.

Also, the Phillies take only very little extra money in 2019 with Nicasio while potentially getting a fine reliever. They actually save some money in 2020. They also get a cost-controlled shortstop that is likely league-average or better with a market value team option in 2023. The Phillies are a clearly better team now. Did they win this trade?

Who Won the Jean Segura Trade?

Whoever wins the Jean Segura - JP Crawford trade really depends on what Crawford does in 2019-2022. Segura would have to be absolutely terrible for this to be a loss for the Phillies. As is the case with most trades, they are meant to be pretty fair for either side. I like this trade a lot for both teams. The Mariners gain some flexibility financially for 2021 and 2022 while getting a player with upside and a middle-of-the-order bat to stay respectable. The Phillies aim to win the National League East.

The Mariners are rebuilding, but they’re hardly tanking. The Phillies were happy to match up with them and do some asset redistribution. It’s probably not the end for the Mariners but the Phillies are probably feeling pretty good right now. Both teams should after this trade.

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Mets - Mariners Trade Analysis: Who Won the Deal?

12/3/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Much digital ink has been spilled about the blockbuster Mets - Mariners trade that sent Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20 million to New York for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and three decent prospects - Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista. On the surface, this looks like this trade could be a win for either side. On paper, this looks like a fair trade.

The net result is that the Mets get Robinson Cano for essentially 5 years and $63.5 million - roughly $12.7 million annual average value. They also get one more year of Edwin Diaz at the MLB league minimum. The Mariners eat a good chunk of Cano’s contract by absorbing Jay Bruce’s and Anthony Swarzak’s contracts and send $20 million or so to help pay for years three, four, and five remaining on Cano’s deal.

For the Mets, this clearly looks like a win-now move. They get one of the best young closers in baseball, plus a guy who even at 36 is still an above average second baseman who will likely still be at least league average at 37. Plus, Cano can slide over to first and still be a productive player likely at 38. He’s probably a lost cause for the last two years of that deal. Diaz, on the other hand, comes with 2019 plus three additional years of team control in the form of arbitration eligible seasons.

While Diaz could get pricey, he is probably well worth whatever salaries he gets in arbitration, as long as he doesn’t flame out. Cano gives the Mets a pretty good player while dumping two players who were in dire need of a change in scenery. The Mariners look like they’re going backwards - and they probably are - but as we’ll see as we break this down, they may end up coming out ahead here.


The Mets’ End & Robinson Cano

Obviously, Cano loved the idea of returning to the Big Apple, even if it’s in Queens. Cano instantly makes the Mets a better team by perhaps 3 wins in 2019 and probably 2 wins in 2020 - taking at bats away from the now departed Bruce in the lineup essentially. As we’ve said already, the last three years of that deal may be a lost cause, but while he’s going to decline, it may not be as sharp as the majority of players.

Steamer thinks that Cano will be worth about 3.1 WAR in 2019 with a .283./343    .460    slash line, assuming slightly below average defense. There’s no reason for me to believe that he will be much less than average at first, second, or third base, wherever he ends up playing. But, I think that 3 WAR is reasonable. That’s worth about $24 million, or what he’s actually making on an average annual basis.

If Cano is worth 2 WAR in 2020 and 1 WAR in 2021, that’s $24 million in value. So, can the Mets get about $15.5 million out of his last two seasons? As a bench bat hitting from the left side with power, it’s possible he ekes out a win or win and a half in those last two years. That’s still a slight negative. But, when you consider Bruce and Swarzak dead weight - money you were going to pay anyway over the next couple of seasons, plus the Mariners cash - you’re almost breaking even.

Because I’m a bit more bullish on Cano’s defense, I’d say a 4 WAR season isn’t out of the question in 2019 or 2020. If he has a great 2019 and the Mets fans are smiling and he defies his age at 38 in 2020, this trade is already looking fair for the Mets.

The great news is, this is before you even count Diaz!


Edwin Diaz

It’s well-known that Edwin Diaz was a major part of the Mariners being an extremely lucky team in one-run games in 2018. He was worth 3.5 WAR, a feat that would make him “worth” about $28 million on a one-year deal on the open market. That’s assuming that a 1 WAR player can fetch about $8 million a year. Of course, can we really expect that sort of performance again?

Popular projection system Steamer projects Diaz for only 1.3 WAR next season. The general consensus is that he’s probably more of a 2 WAR player next year even taking a step back. If we’re conservative and say he’s worth 2 WAR in year one, 1.5 WAR in year two, 1 WAR in year three, and 0.5 WAR in year four, that’s $40 million of value over 4 years. His arbitration salaries will likely not amount to that, so that would be considered “excess value” which is always a good thing.

Even if Cano doesn’t live up to being a league average player in each of the three seasons overall - counting 2022 as a potential wash - this still looks to be an even deal for the Mets with a slight chance they come out ahead in the end.

But, even with the Mariners apparently going backwards… are they really?



The Mariners’ End

Jay Bruce was worth 0.1 WAR in 94 games for the Mets in 2018. Yes, that’s pretty dreadful. But in 2017, he was worth 2.6 WAR for the Mets and Indians. That led to a contract that brought Bruce back to New York and paid him $13 million in 2018 and will pay him $13 million in 2019 and in 2020. In 2019, Bruce will be 32. He’s not necessarily washed up.There’s a cause for optimism in that the Mariners scouts saw something that will make him a useful role player on the 2019 and 2020 teams.

The real hope is that Bruce is able to be some sort of respectable in 2019 and 2020, enough to potentially flip him for a fringe prospect as a bench bat for the stretch run in 2020. After all, Bruce’s power is still in there. While .223/.310/.370 is hardly a good slash line, his 11.4% walk rate was a career high and his 20.8% strikeout rate isn’t bad at all - one of his better seasons in that regard actually.

Steamer projects Bruce to be worth 0.5 WAR in 119 games with a .229/.304/.425 slash line which amounts to something like league average but with decidedly below average defense. That’s not worth anywhere close to $13 million in value. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility he hits slightly better and is worth closer to a win. Considering he’s sharing at-bats with Ben Gamel and Ryon Healy means that he may actually - believe it or not - not be a negative. With the Mariners picking up Carlos Santana, too, in a separate trade, Bruce may never have to face a left-handed pitcher in a big spot at all.

Dee Gordon will slide to second base now, presumably. Bruce will probably find at bats at first base, left field, and designated hitter against predominantly right-handed pitchers. It’s not impossible that Bruce hits .240 with his usual good walk rate and manageable strikeout rate with his typical power. He’ll probably never be worth more than 2 WAR total over the next two years, but that gives you about $16 million in value.

Keep in mind that Bruce could catch fire and be worth 3 WAR. Then another team may be willing to take him if the Mariners eat some of his salary in exchange for a fringe prospect. That’s probably what the Mariners are hoping. But, if he’s a net-zero, the Mariners will live with two years of keeping him on the roster as a decent power option from the bench.


Anthony Swarzak

Swarzak has been mightily inconsistent. However, there’s plenty of reason to believe that 2018 was just an unlucky year. After all, a .344 batting average on balls in play is pretty unusual. While Swarzak had a 6.15 ERA and 6 home runs surrendered in only 26 ⅓ innings, his expected FIP (xFIP) was only 4.33. xFIP takes into account the high BABIP and HR/9 rate which aren’t really sustainable.

Positive regression leads projection system Steamer to see a 0.5 WAR mark for Swarzak in 2019. That’s with a 3.64 ERA in 65 innings. While that doesn’t live up to his $8 million salary, keep in mind this guy has been a shutdown reliever before. He may easily recoup $4 million in value here. Plus, it’s only for one year. He may not become the closer of the Mariners, but he well may, being probably the best reliever left on the roster. That’s especially true with Juan Nicasio and James Pazos being traded.

So far, it looks like the Mariners are only recouping about $20 million in value out of the $36.5 million in salary they’re taking on. But, these are short-term commitments.

It’s the other three guys that could make this trade a win for the Mariners.

Jarred Kelenic

Kelenic is considered the “get” of the deal for the Mariners. He’s expected to be a regular contributor by 2021, so he’s a couple years away. He’s still raw, but his raw power, arm, and speed make him intriguing. It’s too early to project him accurately, but his debut should come when the Mariners are truly ready to content in a couple of years. That was the idea here.

Justin Dunn

Dunn is very likely a useful pitcher for the Mariners by 2020, maybe even sometime in 2019. He’s got a good fastball and slider and decent enough curveball. Improvements of his command and of his changeup will determine if he’ll be a mid-rotation starter, back-end starter, or bullpen guy. Even if all they get out of Dunn is a decent reliever, the Mariners could make out well. It’s also possible that the former first-round pick becomes a trade chip.

Gerson Bautista

Bautista may be the most interesting guy in this trade right now. His numbers from 2018 look terrible, but they are based on extremely unlucky numbers on balls in play.  His 5 game debut with the Mets last year was atrocious. But, this guy has a big fastball, a decent changeup, and a developing slider. It’s possible that Bautista becomes the Mariners’ closer of the future, in which case losing Diaz doesn’t feel so bad.

The Salary Relief

The real reason that the Mariners made this trade is simple: it was a salary dump. The Mariners save something like $63.5 million over the next five years. The majority of that is in 2021, 2022, and 2023. This means that the Mariners could potentially sign an all-star caliber player to a three-year deal in those years. They also get two major league players who may never play up to their contracts, but could catch lightning in a bottle with one or both of them and flip them for fringe prospects.

Also, while Diaz was making peanuts in 2019, it’s not unrealistic that Diaz was going to make $8-9 million in 2020 in arbitration, and potentially $10-12 million in 2021 and 2022. While great closers are great, obviously, they are not musts for rebuilding teams. Also, as we’ve seen, Bautista could end up being Edwin Diaz lite. Maybe not, but that’s the risk you take in these deals.

What we do know is that the Mariners saved a ton of money. Also, Bruce and Swarzak were buy-low candidates who could certainly just be washed up, but it’s just as likely they’re still useful. They’re selling high on Diaz, and a lot of people think that Diaz alone could’ve netted more. But in the end, the financial flexibility cannot be overstated.


Overall Grade of the Mets-Mariners trade.

I’m actually going to say that I definitely prefer the Mariners side of this trade. A lot of people have graded the Mariners return as a B and the Mets return a C. That’s because three of those five Cano years could be a disaster. Also, Diaz could flame out, although unlikely. The Mariners get three really intriguing young guys. Also, my personal feeling is Bruce and Swarzak are being discounted as mere replacement level players who may actually have real value left in the tank. They will absorb at-bats and innings that the Mariners will have to make up somewhere anyway, without blocking anyone.

As I’m writing this, the Mariners have also traded shortstop Jean Segura, plus relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos to the Phillies for shortstop J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana, saving them even more money. The rebuild for the Mariners is well underway, and honestly, this team may not suffer nearly as badly as people might think.
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MLB - Houston Astros Claim Nori Aoki Off Waivers

11/3/2016

 
by Richard Rowell, Sports Break
#23 Nori Aoki

Nori Aoki playing for the Giants

It was a bit surprising to see the Seattle Mariners simply let go outfielder Nori Aoki on waivers. While he had a horrendous first half, and even played in the minors for a bit, he had a good second half and finished the season with decent numbers. Even without his club option for 2017 vesting, Aoki is still eligible for arbitration. It's likely that the Mariners simply didn't want to commit to him. He obviously became expendable in their offseason plan.

In Aoki, the Houston Astros essentially get a free outfielder. Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez were both horrendous for Houston in 2016, so giving Aoki a chance is well worth it. This is a guy who played for a very good Royals team in 2014 who lost to the same Giants he played for in 2015. Aoki won't blow anyone away, but he's a really solid player.

Will Ichiro Be a Baseball Hall of Famer?

2/12/2015

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Ichiro with the Seattle Mariners in 2001 (Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)
With  Ichiro  Suzuki  playing his final Major League game on March 21, 2019 in Japan, it seems to be the opinion of many that the Japanese outfielder is a no-doubt Baseball Hall of Famer. The credentials are there from a traditional statistics standpoint: 3089 hits and a career .311 batting average as of the end of the 2018 season. He has 487 steals over 14 seasons. If you include his stats from Japan, that's 1278 more hits over 7-plus seasons, a .353 batting average, and 199 more steals!

He certainly has the counting stats, that's for certain. Ichiro has never walked much in the MLB, but in Japan he actually posted very strong walk rates. He was also intentionally walked  a lot, at least 13 times in his final 6 seasons in Japan. He was far more of a power threat In Japan than he was in the MLB.

Despite the fact that his Nippon League stats may not technically count towards his Hall of Fame candidacy, they should  be observed. Ichiro has been playing professional baseball since he was 18 years old, albeit not becoming a starter until 20. He played at his final 2 games in 2019 at 45! To be fair, though, Ichiro hasn't been a star-caliber player since 2010. His 2011 was awful, with a .645 OPS. His defense wasn't all that elite that year, either, although his defense has been an asset since joining the Yankees in 2012. He enjoyed 6 and 8 DRS marks in 2012 and 2013, and was still positive at 1 DRS in 2014. He rebounded with 6 DRS in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 he regressed to -1 and in 2018 he fell further to -2. Still, even into his forties, he was a plus in right field for a very long time.

In his career, Ichiro has a 102 DRS in right field. That's pretty amazing. It's possible had he spent more of his career in center field (that the Mariners always had occupied by someone else), he would've saved even more runs and been even more valuable. That being said, he's been worth 59.4 WAR to Baseball-Reference. Imagine if he'd played more games in center field how his high batting averages and spectacular defense would've affected those totals!

Ichiro is a Hall-of-Fame caliber player. If he'd played for some better Seattle teams, or had played more center field, his overall value would've been higher. His years in Japan of being one of the greatest players in their league cannot be dismissed, either. Even after some mediocre years with the Marlins, it was nice to see him return to the Mariners for a last hurrah. Plus, he's a classy guy and it's near impossible not to like him.

Here's to a great career, Ichiro!


Updated 3/21/2019

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