If you’ve been following Major League Baseball top prospects for even just a few years, you will know the name of Jurickson Profar. He was a highly touted prospect for a reason. On his 2011 Bowman Chrome Prospects card, you could see Jurickson simply oozing with talent. The smile on his face as he takes a practice swing in the photo screams a guy that just loves to play some baseball.

But, Profar didn’t get to play nearly as much baseball as he, the Rangers, baseball fans, and card collectors would’ve liked. Injury after injury kept eating into his playing time. When he would try to get a chance in the majors, he just couldn’t put things together before yet again losing a chunk of the season to some injury. Eventually, he finally got to play a full season, even if it took until 2018...

So, when he finally broke out with the Texas Rangers in 2018, it still felt like a disappointment. To hit .254 with 20 HR and 77 RBI - and stealing 10 bases WITHOUT being caught - would be a pretty nice season for most players. After years of getting hurt and not really establishing himself in his limited chances, 2018 was a nice break for Profar. He played all over the diamond, while mostly at third base and shortstop. Unfortunately, he didn’t rate well at any position on defense.


A Second Chance for Jurickson Profar?

The Rangers decided that they would sell high on Profar’s decent success with the bat and on the bases. They let him go to the Oakland A’s in a three team trade that netted them pitchers Kyle Bird and Brock Burke, as well as minor league infielder Eli White. Ironically, White is somewhat similar to what Profar has become - a guy without a position who’s useful enough with the bat and on the bases to have a role with some MLB team. Bird and Burke each had lousy MLB debuts, but both showed promise in the high minors.

The A’s were certainly disappointed in their return. They ended up trading Emilio Pagan and a competitive balance round draft pick to the Rays in the complex three team swap.  Profar hit only .218/.301/.410 and was "worth" minus 10 runs at second base. Meanwhile, Emilio Pagan was one of the best relievers in baseball for the Rays. The Rangers are probably thrilled that they got what they did.

There were some positives. Profar still hit 20 HR. He stole 9 bases and was only caught once. The switch-hitter murdered left handed pitching.  His batting average on balls in play was a piddly .218. Surely, you’d expect Profar to have a bit of positive regression, right?



A Third Chance for Profar with the Padres?

Being one of the most cost-conscious organizations in the league - to put it nicely - the A’s decided that they would cut bait on Profar. While a projection arbitration salary of $5.8 million is hardly awful for a guy who will likely perform closer to his 2018 than his 2019 results, the A’s decided to move on. They decided to swap their struggling infielder for catcher Austin Allen and a player to be named later. 


After their trade of Luis Urias to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres had a three-way fight for playing time at second. Ian Kinsler was terrible in 2019. Greg Garcia is a useful utility Infielder quite likely stretched in full time duty. Ty France had monster AAA numbers and was the guy with the most upside. But, you can't blame the Padres for wanting somebody with Profar's pedigree.

Padres GM A.J. Preller is quite familiar with Profar from his days in the Texas front office. While the familiarity is certainly a factor, it's not like there wasn't a use for him. His Steamer projection for 2020 alone makes him a clear starter at second base even with his fielding difficulties.

Steamer 2020 Projection (125 games): .250/.331/.431, 18 HR, 67 R, 64 RBI, 7 SB

Because of his propensity for injury, his projection accounts for at least some missed time. But even if that time, FanGraphs has him bring worth 2.2 WAR. That's a slightly above average player. Going into his age 27 season and being projected to earn $5.8 million through arbitration is fine for the Padres. The A's just wanted to move on.

What did the Padres give up? Austin Allen didn’t impress in his major league debut, but scouts project him to grow into more of his raw power. He could be a nice find for the A’s, for sure, even if he’s just their third catcher at the moment. He’s not nothing, although a very underwhelming return considering what a star Profar was expected to be.


The good news for Profar is that he definitely has a starting job with the Padres. If he can get his throwing issues under control, he could be at least a passable defensive second baseman. As even a slightly below average fielder, his bat and speed are still good enough tools to make him a 3 WAR player. It would be good to see him hit the ball harder with more consistency. But, in just 2019, his expected wOBA was .323 VS his actual .301 wOBA was enough of a gap to show he was unlucky.

Will Profar reemerge in the baseball card hobby? Right now, it doesn’t seem like he will. It's highly unlikely he suddenly becomes a 30 HR & 100 RBI stud out of nowhere. Could he finally have some good batted ball luck and put together a really nice year, though? There may be some untapped potential there yet. In any case, it’s easy to like this trade for the Padres.

So, the San Francisco Giants dumped Austin Jackson and his relatively small salary on the Texas Rangers. As bad as he's been, the only things I see different this year are he's not hitting as much to the opposite field and his contact rates are a lot lower than normal for him despite a high batting average on balls in play.  I really think there's a lot of bounce back potential here if he just starts going the other way more again. He was plenty useful for the Indians in 2017. It seems that the Rangers plan to flip Jackson, though.

Along with Jackson, Cory Gearrin also came to the Rangers in a clearly money-motivated move. Gearrin was excellent in 2017, but he's gone backwards this year. His strikeout and walk rates are actually better, but he's given up a lot of home runs this year. The obvious thing is that he's not getting enough groundballs, only 34% this year VS a 50% career rate. That may be all he needs to regain past form.

It's not a bad move for either team, as the Giants have two guys that can immediately take those roster spots and the Rangers get some bounceback candidates, one of which they're probably going to flip immediately. They also got a minor leaguer in the deal, too.

The Texas Rangers have experienced a major blow with the loss of dominant set-up man Keone Kela to a bone spur in his elbow. After surgery, he'll be out for at least three months for recovery. While the Rangers ' bullpen is still reasonably strong with above-average relief arms like Sam Dyson and Shawn Tolleson, losing a guy who put up 1.5 WAR as a reliever in 2015 like Kela is going to be difficult. To put that number in context, Kela was about as valuable as Chris Heston and Rick Porcello were as starters in 2015 in a fraction of the innings.

To take Kela's spot on the active roster will be right-handed pitcher Phil Klein, who is being recalled from Triple-A Round Rock. While he hasn't yet enjoyed consistent Major League success in parts of 3 seasons, he did post a strong 2.84 ERA in 17 appearances back in 2014. He was roughed up in 2015, but allowed no earned runs in 3 appearances in 2015. Projection system ZiPS is optimistic about his potential success in 2016, though, as a solid middle relief option.