Blog Posts

Justin Smoak: Fantasy and Hobby Star in 2020?

10/15/2019

by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Justin Smoak was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball in 2019. According to StatCast, he was the 9th unluckiest hitter in terms of xwOBA minus actual wOBA. That 9th place is misleading as a bunch of the guys ahead of him are backup catchers or utility type players. There are only a couple of guys we'd even care about as far as fantasy or rookie cards are concerned. Those two are Marcell Ozuna and Kendrys Morales.

As for Smoak, his quality of contact suggests his .208 batting average and .406 slugging percentage are much too low. StatCast expected a .245 batting average, which is also his career average. For slugging, StatCast expected a .476 mark, also not far off of his career average. With his career high 15.8 percent walk rate in 2019, Smoak should've had a .367 wOBA. That's a whopping 40 points higher than his actual wOBA.

To put that in perspective, his expected rates put him in the neighborhood of the actual results of Bryce Harper and Joc Pederson. But his surface numbers put him more in the production range of big disappointments like Paul DeJong and Dexter Fowler. Sure, they're about league average. But, Smoak is a well above league average hitter. As he has since been signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, apparently their front office feels the same way.

Going into his age 33 season and free agency, Smoak could be a really nice bargain. Of course, Smoak is also the exact type of player that teams are shying away from. With all the young talent Toronto is stockpiling, it was a foregone conclusion he wouldn't be back with the Blue Jays in 2020. The Brewers, on the other hand, are happy to guarantee him just $4 million for 2020, plus an option for 2021 at $5.5 million with a $1 million buyout.

It's likely no surprise that people aren't too excited about Justin Smoak rookie cards. He also doesn't have a Bowman Chrome Auto, which makes his card market a little harder to gauge relative to his peers. His top rookie autos are several 2008 Razor cards and 2008 Upper Deck Team USA. Of course, the Upper Deck cards are more sought after. For base rookie cards, there are the serial numbered 2010 eTopps and 2011 Topps rookie cards.

Because of his poor surface numbers, particular Smoak rookie cards don't sell that consistently. But if you are looking for one card to target, it would be colored refractors of his 2011 Topps rookie card, as those are the cards targeted most consistently.

A strong 30 HR and 100 RBI could still be in Smoak's future. While Milwaukee isn't a big market, a strong season from both him and the Brew Crew could help the value of Justin Smoak cards. What do you see in the cards (pun intended) for Justin Smoak's future?

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Is Mike Yastrzemski a Legit MLB Outfielder?

9/17/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

On September 17th, 2019, Boston Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski and his grandson Mike reunited at Fenway Park for the first time in awhile. It’s a dream come true for the 29-year old rookie outfielder for the San Francisco Giants who hails from Andover, MA. After playing four years at Vanderbilt, Mike has spent seven seasons in the minors, all for the Baltimore Orioles system until this year. His ascent to the Major Leagues was years in the making, and now he makes his debut at Fenway in left field, the position his grandfather roamed for many years for the Red Sox.

While it’s highly unlikely that we’re seeing the beginning of a Hall of Fame career for Mike Yastrzemski, his numbers in 2019 are pretty solid. Through 96 games, Mike hit .265/.324/.509 good for a 115 OPS+. Mike Yaz also had 19 home runs and 51 RBI. In his minor league career, he had decent, but sort of average numbers. In fact, the projection systems all saw Mike Yastrzemski as more of a 4th outfielder with some pop.

On that very first game at Fenway Park, Mike Yastrzemski hit his 20th home run of the season. It was a home run broadcast everywhere, a league-wide sensation. "Little Yaz" would finish the 2019 season hitting .272/.334/.518 with 21 HR. With the sudden success of a Hall of Famer's descendant, it's little surprise that Mike Yastrzemski rookie cards have been hot since that special moment at Fenway.

So, why is Mike Yastrzemski so good all of a sudden? Part of his success is fueled by a much better batting line on the road vs home and success against lefties as a left-handed batter. His 2019 season BABIP was .325, which isn’t incredibly high. Outside of a brutal month of June and some back issues, "Little Yaz" has actually been even better than his overall batting line would suggest for most of the season. But, is it sustainable success?

What Does StatCast Say About Mike Yastrzemski?

While Mike Yastrzemski is indeed related to Carl, it’s not fair to compare him to his Hall of Fame grandfather. But because his numbers don’t seem fluky on the surface, we need to look at his actual quality of contact. Right off the bat - pun not intended - StatCast shows us that he may be a bit lucky after all. But, it’s not that drastic. Mike’s expected batting average is .251, which is certainly significantly lower than his actual mark of .272. But, his expected slugging percentage of .484, when you filter out the loss in batting average, isn’t much off his current performance.

While Mike Yastrzemski may not develop into the slugger his grandpa was, StatCast’s expected wOBA of .341 isn’t that far off of his actual .357 wOBA, and still quite above league average. There are a couple of other things in his favor, too. StatCast tells us that Mike has above average sprint speed on the bases and an above-average jump on the ball in the outfield. While he has only stolen two bases, he’s been running the bases well, and he’s been a plus defender in the outfield, mostly in left and right field.

Although he’s hit some weak balls, he’s been barreling the ball well, and his hard hit percentage is in the 74th percentile. Having above average power and a respectable on-base percentage while adding above average baserunning and fielding to the mix is a decent package. Right now, Mike Yaz really looks like a league-average corner outfielder. He’s not blowing anyone anyway, but he was a really nice pickup for the Giants.

Why Did the Orioles Give Up on Mike Yastrzemski?

I’m not so sure that the Orioles expected Mike Yastzemski to become a solid regular all of a sudden. He was invited as a non-roster player in spring training and obviously showed enough to the Giants scouts that they wanted to trade for him. The Giants surrendered starting pitcher Tyler Herb, who would go on to pitch fairly well in AA Bowie for the Orioles before struggling mightily in AAA. It’s clear that the Orioles made a mistake with this deal.

Credit goes to the Giants scouting in clearly selecting a player who was ready to breakout. Soon as he went to AAA for the Giants, he tore the Pacific Coast League to pieces. Even though it’s an offense-friendly league, his .316/.414/.676 slash line with 12 HR in 40 games was obviously impressive. With the Giants outfield situation a mess for most of the year, Mike Yaz has found a home in left field alongside brilliant defensive outfielder Kevin Pillar.

It’s safe to say the Orioles regret making that trade, because it’s very possible that Yaz would be roaming Camden Yards with Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander right now. While it’s not clear that Mike Yastrzemski is going to become much more than what he is right now - a very useful player - the Orioles have to be kicking themselves. The Giants are more than happy to have him, as he’s a legitimate MLB starting outfielder.

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Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future?

9/16/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Brandon Workman has enjoyed a stellar career year for the Boston Red Sox. He’s been such a fantastic relief pitcher, in fact, that he’s become the Red Sox closer. His strikeout rate is off the charts and he’s allowed just one home run in 66 ⅓ innings! Perhaps even more incredible is despite seemingly unsustainable BABIP and HR/9 marks - and a high walk rate - Workman’s incredible season isn’t just a mirage.

It’s time to turn to my favorite statistical analysis tool for baseball: StatCast. Just look at these numbers:

Barrel Rate: 0.8% (Top 1% of league)
Expected Batting Average: .174 (Top 2% of league)
Expected Slugging Percentage: .237 (Top 1% of league)
Actual wOBA: .209 (Top 1% of league)
Expected wOBA: .256 (Top 5% of league)
Expected wOBA on contact: .311 (Top 5% of league)
Hard Hit Percentage: 28.9% (Top 6% of league)
Strikeout Rate: 35.5% (Top 4% of league)

(Note that all numbers are as of 9/16/2019)

The only bad number that StatCast spits out? His walk rate, 15.5%, which ranks in the bottom 1% of the league. Workman is simply not allowing much hard contact and he’s striking guys out, both things you really want a pitcher to do.

According to FanGraphs, the fielding-independent pitching metrics suggest that even with that high walk rate and miniscule HR allowed rate, his FIP is 2.52 and his expected FIP - which uses an average HR/9 rate - is 3.44. Obviously, those are all acceptable numbers for a closer. Overall, FanGraphs rates Workman as earning 1.9 WAR. Not bad for a guy that the ZiPs projection system saw as a barely above replacement-level middle reliever.

But Wait, It Gets Better for Brandon Workman!

By Baseball-Reference’s WAR, which instead uses Runs Allowed per 9 innings, and not the FIP metric, Workman has been worth 2.8 WAR to the Red Sox in 2019. When you realize that Workman has been worth 2.9 WAR in his entire career including 2019, you realize what an incredible breakout this has been.

So, what’s changed about Workman? Here’s a guy who had a decent rookie season back for the eventual 2013 World Champion Red Sox as a relief pitcher. Then, he had a brutal 2014 season as a starter, after which he missed all of 2015 and 2016 (except for a few brutal rehab appearances in the minors in ‘16) with arm injuries. But, Workman bounced back nicely in 2017, pitching excellently for Pawtucket and pitching pretty well between AAA and MLB in both 2017 and 2018.

In 2013 and 2014, Workman had a sinking fastball and a change-up in addition to his four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball. After arm troubles, when he returned to full health in 2017, those sinker and change-up were taken out of his repertoire. But he has the same three pitches in 2019 that he did in 2017 and 2018. So, what’s the difference?

One obvious thing that’s different is the average fastball velocity. Workman’s four-seam fastball has averaged 92.8 MPH this year. That’s up a lot from 2018 when it was 91.2, and even higher than 2017 when it was 92.2. The added velocity is definitely a big part of it, but what’s more incredible is the spin rate.

The spin rate on Workman’s fastball is 2121 rpm, up from 2003 and 1982 the previous two years. Those increases in velocity and spin rate have led to a whiff rate of 35.9 percent, a huge jump from 18.3% in 2018 and 17.0% in 2017. That nearly doubled whiff rate has made Workman’s fastball practically unhittable, with a measly .129 batting average and .145 slugging percentage against. StatCast agrees with those numbers with .135 and .174 expected marks.

Brandon Workman Loves to Throw You a Curveball, A Lot

Interestingly, Workman only throws the four-seamer 33.1% of the time, down from 38.9% in 2018 and 51.2% in 2017. What’s replaced many of those fastballs, and a few of his cutters, is his curveball. It’s pretty much the same pitch as 2018’s curveball, although with more spin than 2017. Despite a lower whiff rate of 28.9%, batters have only hit .133 against it. While StatCast sees that as unsustainable, it still expects a batting average of merely .193. You can’t go wrong with that curve.

The most interesting part of this StatCast pitch arsenal data has to do with his cutter. Despite only throwing it 19.8% of the time, it clearly has been the culprit of many of Workman’s issued walks in 2019. His cutter has a whopping 20.4% walk rate. And if that sounds high, it should, as his cutter has never had higher than a 10% walk rate since StatCast began tracking pitches in that way. But, there are a couple of upsides to the cutter. It has a whopping whiff rate of 43.6%, and despite only having a K% of 26.5, has been an effective third pitch overall. Batters have only hit .083 against it, although StatCast expects a .178 batting average. Still, that’s pretty good - even with all the walks it’s ended up creating.

What this data tells us is that Workman has thrown the curve more than ever in 2019, and it’s helped both his fastball and cutter play up. While it’s clear that we may not be able to expect him to replicate this success going forward, it is clear that Workman has found a really nice pitch mix that works for him.

How Will Brandon Workman Do in 2020?

Workman was eligible for arbitration in 2019, and settled for a $1.15 million contract. That’s turned out to be a massive bargain for the Red Sox. Going into his final year of arbitration, Workman should easily expect a substantial pay raise. Through 9/16/19, Workman has a 9-1 win loss record with 14 saves and 15 holds. He does have 6 blown saves, though, but not all of those were as a closer. You may not think wins hold as much water as they once did, especially for a reliever, but that does look awfully nice on his baseball card.

Of course, if Workman’s agent does his homework, there’s a lot to like about Workman going forward. All of this pitch data is very easily accessible. Being credited for 9 wins and 14 saves means something, too - in fact, Workman’s WPA+ (Win Probability Added) on the season through 9/16 is 8.98. Of course, there are two components to WPA (WPA+ and WPA-) and his overall WPA is 2.18, which is still quite good. That mark isn’t far behind one of the best relievers in baseball - Josh Hader - at 2.36, and just ahead of Liam Hendricks, the solid A’s reliever, at 2.16. So, Workman has been a very valuable reliever.

The advanced stats keep working in Workman’s favor in terms of StatCast expected stats, too. His expected wOBA of .256 ranks right in between the Houston Astros’ top relievers in Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna. Also, he’s not far behind his own teammate, Darwinzon Hernandez, at .253. That’s good company. His actual wOBA, though? Get this, it’s the lowest of any pitcher with 100 Plate Appearances. Workman’s performance has literally made Workman the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2019.

Talk about an arbitration case in Workman’s favor! Even if he stumbles a bit in the last couple weeks of the season, Workman has still been incredible. Should he be the Boston Red Sox closer going into 2020? There’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t be.

Of course, there is Darwinzon Hernandez, who Jhoulys Chacin memorably compared to his former teammate Josh Hader. As the StatCast data shows, Chacin is right. If you believe the StatCast metrics - and there’s little reason not to - the Red Sox have one of the best 8th and 9th inning combos in the game going into 2020. Not a bad setup.

Because of this, it’s possible that the Red Sox explore a contract extension with Workman this offseason. It’s also equally possible that the Red Sox lean on his good, not great past performance and go into 2020 with Workman on a one-year deal to prove he’s for real. But as we’ve broken down here in great length, Workman is definitely a changed pitcher. If he can work on reducing the walks on his cutter, he could, in fact, be the best closer in ALL of baseball. That’s pretty incredible stuff.

Is Brandon Workman the Boston Red Sox Closer of the Future? Perhaps. Brandon Workman IS the Boston Red Sox Closer of RIGHT NOW, though, for sure. That future title may go to Darwinzon Hernandez, but you never know. Workman is only 31 years old, very young for a relief pitcher. As long as he’s not overused or overworked, Workman likely has a very nice late-inning career ahead of him.

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Baseball America 2019 High-A Minor League Player of the Year: Jarren Duran of the Red Sox!

9/13/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Congratulations to outfielder Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox for being recognized as the Baseball America High-A Player of the Year! For Salem in the Carolina League, Duran hit .387/.456/.543 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, and 18 SB in 50 games. That’s good for a 191 wRC+, which is obviously quite nuts.

However, Duran actually spent most of the 2019 season at Double-A for the Portland Sea Dogs, where he hit a mere .250/.309/.325 with only 1 HR and 19 RBI. Even when you account for his 28 SB (against only 8 times caught), that’s good for only a 87 wRC+. However, despite his hiccup with the bat, Duran is a potential plus defensive outfielder, although he’s still transitioning from his original position of second base.

FanGraphs isn’t hugely big on his future potential value, giving him a 45 where 50 is a potential average Major League player. They’re high on his speed, of course, giving him a 70 out of a potential 80. But his other current and future potential values are not what you’d expect from a Player of the Year.

From Fangraphs

Hit: 40 / 55
Game Power: 30 / 40
Raw Power: 45 / 45
Speed: 70 / 70
Field: 40 / 50
Throws: 40 / 40
Future Value: 45

Of course, if Duran does become the plus defender in center field his speed and athleticism suggest, he would instantly be at least a league-average center fielder in the Majors. Saving runs in center field is extremely valuable. It should be noted that Duran was an excellent second baseman, but the Sox organization felt his athleticism was wasted at the position. The below-average arm doesn’t matter as much in center field, either.

The rest of the scouting report suggests that if he refines his baserunning instincts, he could be an easy 30 SB threat in the Majors. The question is if his hit tool develops enough to become a .300 hitter in the Majors. His plate discipline is decent enough and if he takes full advantage of his speed, the Sox have a really good player here.

It should be noted that the Steamer projection already sees Jarren Duran as a .281/.324/.402 hitter right now. Before you factor in his potential stolen bases, that’s already a 86 wRC+. Of course, that projection is heavily influenced by that Single-A outburst. But for a 23-year old with an ETA of 2022, the Sox could have a really nice late bloomer that can play both second base and center field.

What do you think of Jarren Duran as a prospect? I find it hard to get excited about a guy who dominates Single-A then stumbles so badly at Double-A. Of course, the former 7th-round draft selection Duran has his fans. Heck, he was included in the famous (infamous?) Gary Vee Direct 360 set. Unsurprisingly with the Baseball America prospect spotlight now placed on him, Jarren Duran’s cards are now listed in the $8 to $10 range.

As of this writing, the Gary Vee Direct 360 card is the only official Bowman rookie card for Duran and two minor league cards from the Salem Red Sox and New York Penn League (from his time in 2018 with the Lowell Spinners). Duran is definitely an intriguing prospect and I like his potential, but I tend to put my faith in FanGraphs scouting ratings. Could Duran blow away his ratings and ride his speed all the way to the top? He certainly could. Only time will tell.

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Boston Red Sox Cards - 1964 Topps “Sox Sockers” Carl Yastrzemski and Chuck Schilling

9/12/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

Even most casual baseball fans know who Carl Yastrzemski is, one of the greatest Boston Red Sox players ever. But, on this 1964 Topps card entitled “Sox Sockers” he’s sharing the card with the Red Sox second baseman at the time. That's the slick fielding Chuck Schilling.

Far as I know, Chuck Schilling is of no relation to the much more famous pitcher Curt Schilling. What I do know is that Chuck Schilling was not a socker. He hit just 8 home runs in 1963, with a .234 batting average and .610 OPS… 1963 was actually the last time Chuck would be above replacement level.

Meanwhile, Yaz had an awesome 1963, winning his first batting title and leading the American League in hits, doubles, walks, and OBP. It was also Yaz’s first All-Star nod. Schilling hit those 8 HR… and was worth 1 WAR with the glove. The poor OPS wasn’t enough to make Schilling valuable, though. He was worth a mere 0.2 WAR in 146 games. He’d been about just as good with the glove in 1962, but even worse with the bat.

That all being said, Topps did have reason to believe that Schilling may eventually find his stroke at the major league level. After all, Schilling did bat .340 in the D league (today's A ball) and .314 at AAA. Those are obviously good marks. That offensive potential never came to be realized in the Majors. But, you can understand their optimism based on those past minor league performances.

However, Chuck Schilling DID have one very good season in MLB. That was his rookie year in 1961. Despite a mere .666 OPS, Schilling did have a .340 on-base percentage in a league-leading 737 plate appearances that year. His baseball stats didn’t look bad at all for a defensive-minded second baseman either: .259 batting average, 5 HR, 62 RBI, plus 7 stolen bases. However, he was caught 6 times, so his stolen bases weren’t so valuable.

But, where Schilling really shined in 1961 was with the glove. He led the league in assists at second base, 2nd in double plays turned, and was worth a whopping SIXTEEN runs above average by Total Zone at the keystone. Obviously, that final stat led the league. Had they been awarded at the time, Schilling would’ve won the Gold Glove, and it would’ve been entirely deserved. His defensive WAR? 1.9!

Unfortunately, Schilling never really developed with the bat. Part of that was due to a wrist injury suffered in 1962. At least in 1963 his 25 doubles and 8 HR gave him some offensive value. By 1964, he simply was too much of a liability with the bat and his play in the field began to suffer.

Schilling sort of rebounded as a bench player in 1965 before being traded after the season to the Minnesota Twins. He’d be on the Twins roster to start 1966 - as rosters were allowed to have 28 players until May 15. But, when the rosters reverted to 25 men, he retired rather than be forced to accept a minor league assignment.

Chuck Schilling did OK for himself after that, teaching high-school math on Long Island and playing competitive softball all the way until he was 69. As of 2020, Chuck Schilling is still with us. Had Schilling not suffered that wrist injury, it’s likely he would’ve stuck around as a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman for quite a few years. Fortunately, we have this and other baseball cards to remember his career by.

Thanks for the memories, Chuck Schilling!

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Red Sox 2019-2020 Offseason Outlook: J.D. Martinez

9/9/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

After their loss to the Yankees on September 8th, 2019, the Red Sox saw their playoff odds drop down to 0.4%. Being 17.5 games out of the American League East Division Lead and 8 games out of the second Wild Card spot, Boston fired team president of operations Dave Dombrowski. To me, and many other observers, the firing appears like a bit of an overreaction to an overall winning effort. But, it certainly sends a message to the rest of the organization after a very disappointing season.

With various injuries crippling some key players on both the pitching staff and in the lineup, there’s certainly been a lot of negativity surrounding the team. But, there have been many positives. One of those is the continued production of J.D. Martinez. Looking ahead to the off-season, the fate of their designated hitter (and occasional outfielder) J.D. Martinez is one of the biggest questions. That’s because the team's best hitter in 2019 can opt out of the final three years of his deal in each of the next three offseasons. If that happens, the Red Sox may have no choice but to say goodbye.

Due to massive financial commitments to Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi, there isn't going to be much money to go around. The Sox already have to consider arbitration raises to Betts and Bradley Jr, and Xander Bogaerts new (albeit, well deserved) pay raise. Even with Porcello's $21 million and other significant salaries like Moreland and Pearce coming off the books, there's still not much money to go around.

Because of these massive commitments, the new Red Sox committee of baseball operations has a big decision to make regarding the DH. Whether he opts out or not, JD Martinez has a $22 million Annual Average Value (AAV) salary to consider. So, let’s play General Manager and see what the Red Sox could do and the various scenarios that could play out.

Is J.D. Martinez Worth His Contract?

So far, absolutely. Through 592 Plate Appearances in 2019, here are J.D. Martinez’s numbers:

Actual: 308/.384/.577/.398 wOBA (top 5% of league), 35 HR, 31 2B
Statcast expected stats: .310 batting average, .582 slugging percentage,.410 expected wOBA (top 3% of league),.489 expected wOBA on contact (top 4% of league)
Defense: -6 DRS, -3 Outs Above Average (StatCast), 313 innings played

According to FanGraphs, J.D. Martinez’s 3.2 WAR in 2019 is worth $25.5 million on the open market. That’s at each “win above replacement” being worth about $8 million. So, this is under the assumption that a league average player could expect about $16 million a year on the open market. That’s a far cry from the $46.9 million JD was “worth” in 2018. Still, if the season ended today, JD will have “earned” $72.4 of his $110 million contract in just two out of five years. The season isn’t yet over, so he could easily improve those numbers.

This means that if the Red Sox just get one more 3 WAR season out of J.D., he’s essentially been worth his deal. That means that this signing was a great one for the Sox. Not only that, JD has become one of the team leaders.

Let’s take a look at his ZiPS projections for the next two years:

2020: .285/.356/.547, 32 HR, 3 WAR
2021: .281/.350/.524, 28 HR, 2.3 WAR

We can assume that 2022 will be below league-average. But, yes, the Red Sox would be fine if he doesn’t opt out. Right?

Scenario #1: JD Martinez Doesn’t Opt Out and Remains for 2019

The interesting thing about JD Martinez’s contract is that he has an opt-out clause he can activate not just after 2019, but also after 2020, and after 2021. Of course, there are some interesting names on the free agent market for this offseason. But none of them are anywhere near the hitter than Martinez has been.

Yes, Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion could be free agents. But the Twins will happily take back Cruz for his $12 million option and I can’t really see the Yankees turning down Edwin’s $20 million, although he’s no JD. The other best power hitters are Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon, but they still could resign with their current teams. There’s also Justin Smoak, who’s probably better than his 2019 numbers look.

So, there’s a good chance JD opts out. There are likely greener pastures, and the 2020 free agent class may only add Yasmani Grandal, Anthony Rizzo, and Mike Moustakas for impact hitters. But, let’s say he stays. With the core still in place, if a couple of young players step up and Sale, Price, and Eovaldi stay healthy, there’s a chance this team makes another championship run. That could entice JD to stay. The Red Sox would probably be fine with that.

Scenario #2: JD Martinez Opts Out in 2019

Since JD is going to turn 33 in August 2020, that means JD won’t necessarily be as attractive to other teams. Teams are usually looking to get younger, and if he opts out after 2020, even with a good season, JD may not beat the remaining $42 million on his deal at that point. But the 2020 class outside of a few hitters isn’t exactly crowded. JD could probably beat the $62.5 million he currently has left.

If the Sox opt out, it’s very likely that they simply hold onto that money, turning to Michael Chavis, Sam Travis, and Bobby Dalbec to replace both him and Mitch Moreland. Travis is showing signs of developing into a better than league-average hitter. Chavis was showing the same before he got hurt. Dalbec may not be quite ready, either.

Of course, the Red Sox could also try to get value out of someone like Justin Smoak, who probably won’t be highly sought after. He’d probably be available for $8 million, or even less, considering his poor results this year. However, he’s still been a league-average hitter, plus StatCast reveals that his expected wOBA is a whopping 41 points higher than his actual results. Smoak has just been terrifically unlucky with a .228 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) because he has the best walk rate of his career.

The Sox very likely can't replace JD, but they could get a lot of it back for not much money. If he does opt out, the Sox will likely just extend a qualifying offer and hope to get a draft pick. There are some in-house options and potential DH type bargains.

Scenario #3: Red Sox do a trade and sign with JD Martinez

This isn't a scenario I've heard mentioned but there is an interesting though I've had with a trade and sign. Currently, JD has very limited value because of his three opt out clauses. But if the Red Sox decided they wanted to deal from a position of strength, they may offer JD a deal where they guarantee the money if he accepts a trade elsewhere, likely with a bonus attached to it. I don't know that JD is going to want to leave that way but you cant deny JD has significant trade value. The return likely wouldn't be great but it would free up significant payroll room.

This is also a "sell high" move. Do I think it will actually happen? Probably not. Would I explore it? As things stand right now, probably not. JD is unlikely to be an albatross in 2020 or 2021 and even if he is in 2022, by then things will be a lot more flexible financially.

However, this is where things get interesting. The Red Sox do NOT want to lose their superstar player after the 2020 season,Mookie Betts. Obviously, Betts is far more valuable to the Sox. The idea then is if you can free up money to guarantee a Betts mega deal and perhaps lock in Rafael Devers, you can take the short term hit in your offense.

My Take on JD Martinez

Personally, I'd JD Martinez wants to stay I would keep him. His bat is going to be extremely hard to replace. I would simply keep him. If a trade and sign became an option I would explore it.

However, consider this. The Red Sox don't have a ton of dead money going forward. The Sox only owe Pablo Sandoval $5 million. Dustin Pedroia is only owed about $13 million and the chance of him playing in 2020 is non zero. Rusney Castillo is owed $14 million but his contract doesn't count toward the luxury tax payroll due to being in AAA.

So, JD Martinez, unless he simply stops hitting, isn't hurting anyone. He's also a team leader, as I said before and that's an intangible you can't really put a dollar value on. Of course, if he opts out, there isn't any point in resigning him - unless his gamble doesn't work out and you get him back on a one year deal or something. The Sox need to keep Betts. But keeping JD gives Betts not only added incentive to sign because you're committed to winning, but because his salary is probably not going to stop that.

Also, if JD opts out after 2020, the Red Sox are going to just throw that money at Betts anyway. Or, another top free agent to replace his production if Betts leaves for “greener” pastures. I love JDM, but he’s a DH, and unfortunately for Martinez, those aren’t all that hard to replace - unless you’re Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz. I think JDM could keep providing that level of production, but will the Sox pay a higher price than they already have? That’s highly doubtful.

What do you think the Red Sox should do with J.D. Martinez?

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Jose Canseco: The Red Sox Years

9/8/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

In one of the better trades the Red Sox made in the 1990’s, the Red Sox traded speedy, defensive minded outfielder Otis Nixon and infielder Luis Ortiz to the Texas Rangers for outfielder Jose Canseco. Obviously, it was a bit of a salary dump, with the Rangers clearly thinking they could replace Canseco’s bat with defense. To be honest, anyone with a brain at that time probably saw this wouldn’t work out.

Otis Nixon actually had an OK year for the Rangers in 1995, although Total Zone didn’t love his defense (-4 runs below average). He did, however, post a very good .354 OBP, and stole 50 bases - albeit being caught 24 times. He was worth 1.3 WAR, which isn’t terrible, of course. Luis Ortiz was… awful. Nixon would move onto the Blue Jays for 1996, so really the Rangers just saved some money..

Jose Canseco’s Solid 1995 Season with the Red Sox

With one year left on Canseco’s contract, the Red Sox were happy to take on a guy who hit 31 HR in just 111 games during the strike-shortened 1994 season. They wouldn’t be disappointed as he would help anchor a Red Sox lineup that included Mo Vaughn, John Valentin, Tim Naehring, Troy O’Leary, and Mike Greenwell (who was in his last season as an above-average regular). Canseco would hit 24 home runs with a .306 batting average, his highest since 1988. Canseco also reached an important milestone, as his final home run of the season off of Jesse Orosco was the 300th of his career.

The Red Sox would make the playoffs, making it Canseco’s first postseason trip in five years.However, Canseco would go 0-for-13, with 2 walks, in the 1995 American League Division Series. It was a disappointing end to an otherwise good season.

Jose Canseco’s Hot Start to 1996 Season, Followed by Back Trouble

The Red Sox would resign Canseco in 1996. It all started off well, and in 96 games he would hit 28 HR and hit .289/.400/.589. Back troubles would cause Canseco to miss all of August and most of September. In fact, Canseco hit 26 of his 28 homers before the All-Star break, and he wouldn’t even hit a home run after July 17th.

Still, in just 198 games between 1995 and 1996, Canseco was worth 5.6 WAR. I’d say that was more than worth a year of Otis Nixon and Luis Ortiz…

Canseco Reunites with McGwire in Oakland, Red Sox Get Cash and “Wayback” Wasdin

After the 1996 season, Canseco would be reunited with “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire as he was traded back to the Oakland A’s for … “Wayback” John Wasdin & cash. While that sounds like a terrible trade, it actually would work out for the Red Sox in the long run. Despite his longball issues, Wasdin would overall be a useful pitcher. He’d eventually be a key part of a trade that brought Rolando Arrojo, Rick Croushore, and former Expo All-Star Mike Lansing to Boston. Lansing would be awful, and Croushore was ineffective in 5 games, but Arrojo was a nice find and put the Sox in the positive for that trade.

Of course, Canseco’s back troubles would linger in Oakland, but he’d still hit a few home runs along “Bash Brother” Mark McGwire. Then, of course, he’d put together a few more decent seasons, along with a monster season in Toronto in 1998, a very good season in Tampa Bay in 1999, and hung on in 2000 and 2001 to hit a few more home runs and still be a productive hitter when healthy.

My Thoughts on Jose Canseco’s Legacy

Of course, Jose Canseco is a very controversial figure in baseball. Canseco and his two books revealed the extent of the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) in baseball, which understandably upset a lot of people. Despite hitting 462 HR in his career with a very good 132 OPS+ over 17 years, Canseco will likely never get near the Hall of Fame for reasons that stretch beyond his own use of PEDs.

However, Jose Canseco remains a very popular figure in the baseball card hobby. Many collectors have created a sort of Cardboard Hall of Fame for Canseco and his cards are still highly sought after. Since his career began in the Junk Wax era and he was such a massively popular player in his time, there’s no shortage of Jose Canseco baseball cards to collect. Heck, Canseco continues to appear in current baseball card sets as recently as 2019! While he may never get a plaque at Cooperstown, Canseco will never be forgotten by the game of baseball.

...

P.S. Fun fact: Jose Canseco made his Major League pitching debut against, guess who, the RED SOX, in May of 1993. He gave up three runs on 2 hits and 3 walks...

Not so fun fact: Because of that pitching appearance, Canseco would need Tommy John surgery (elbow ligament replacement surgery) and miss the rest of the season. It also didn't help his back issues... Missing the rest of that season, and the extra damage to his already ailing back, also likely cost him the chance at 500 HR. What do you think?

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The Year of Sonny Siebert - 1971 Red Sox

9/7/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

The Red Sox had some pretty good players back in the 1970’s. But, one you may not have heard nearly as much about was Sonny Siebert. A starting pitcher who was better known for his years with the Cleveland Indians, Siebert was mediocre in two of his four full seasons with the Red Sox. However, he was quite good in 1970, and won 15 games with a fine 3.44 ERA. He would be much better in 1971.

The Sox acquired Siebert along with Vicente Romo and Joe Azcue for Dick Ellsworth, Ken Harrelson, and Juan Pizarro. As Red Sox trades go, this was actually a good one for Boston. Azcue and Romo were replacement level, but Harrelson and Pizzaro only had one good year for Cleveland and Ellsworth never really did much after that. Pizzaro would have another good season later with the Cubs. Of course, that means the Red Sox won this trade, because although Siebert was mediocre in 1969 and 1973, he was quite good in between.

A lot went right for Sonny Siebert in 1971. Not only did he pitch very well, winning 16 games with a 2.91 ERA, but Sonny also had a great year with the BAT. That’s right, folks. American League pitchers still had to come to bat until 1973. What’s particularly incredible about Siebert’s 1971 season with the bat is that in no other season did he come close to being that good. In 1971, he hit .266/.289/.532 with 6 HR and 15 RBI. His career marks? .173/.204/.270 with 12 HR. Crazy fluke or not, it was a really nice year for Sonny.

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Why I Believe Mark McGwire Belongs in the Hall of Fame

9/6/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

A recent conversation with my buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. So, naturally, I needed to get down my thoughts about the “big boys” in McGwire, Sosa, and of course, Barry Bonds.

The opinions I have on these players may not be the most popular. However, for sports card hobby fans, you may actually like my opinions on Mark McGwire, and why - like Roger Clemens - he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame anyway.

Warning, lots and lots and lots of “advanced,” “dopey,” “geeky” statistics to follow… :D

Mark McGwire Set HR Records Early On!

Mark McGwire was a star with the bat very early on, starring in college for USC and hitting 53 home runs in his three years there. Thirty-one of those homers came in his junior year in only 65 games. He also hit .388. Unsurprisingly, those 31 HR broke the USC single-season record set just the season before of 19 by, hey, Mark McGwire!

After being drafted 10th overall by the Oakland A’s and starring the 1984 Olympics, “Big Mac” would be underwhelming in his first minor league action. McGwire quickly made adjustments, of course, and promptly began crushing the minor leagues starting in 1985. After a strong showing at A, McGwire took AA and AAA by storm in 1986, resulting in a cup of coffee in late 1986. It wasn’t an exciting beginning to his career, but he did hit his first 3 of his 583 homers he’d eventually hit in his career.

Mark McGwire’s Massive Rookie of the Year Campaign

Obviously, McGwire blew away the competition for Rookie of the Year. But, beyond the baseball card stats, McGwire’s rookie season was particularly exceptional because of his ISO (Isolated Power) mark. ISO is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to get an idea of that player’s true raw power display. With that .329 ISO mark, McGwire was truly dominating with the bat.

While McGwire would have a few more big seasons with the bat early on, it took awhile for “Big Mac” to replicate that raw power. Part of that is playing at the Oakland Coliseum, known as a park not all that friendly to home run hitters. It seemed over the next few years that McGwire was going to develop into a “true three outcomes” type of hitter: meaning whenever he stepped to the plate, you’d expect a walk, strikeout, or home run. Of course, that wasn’t a problem as long as he was producing, even when the batting averages began to dip.

That is, until 1991.

What Happened to McGwire in 1991?

The back of the baseball card tells part of the story: .201 batting average, only 22 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, the A’s weren’t too great in 1991, either. But, it was Big Mac’s first below average season. To save the humiliation of potentially having his average dip below .200, manager Tony LaRussa actually sat him for the last game of the season. Fortunately for McGwire, that poor batting average was in part because of a .214 BABIP, which obviously is extremely low. Mac’s strikeout rate didn’t rise all that much and his walk rate was still stable.

There were some other easy explanations for that dramatic drop in production. McGwire was having marriage problems that would inevitably end in divorce. He said he didn’t “lift a weight” all season, so conditioning was certainly a problem. But, McGwire also received vision therapy, something that would improve his already above-average plate discipline even more so in the second half of his career.

McGwire’s Bounceback Season of 1992

In 1992, the world pretty much forgot about his awful 1991 because he came back in a big way with a .268 batting average, 42 HR and 104 RBI. That performance was backed up by a .385 on base percentage and .585 slugging percentage, good for a 176 OPS+. Keep in mind that OPS+ is park-adjusted, and he played half his games in Oakland. That meant his performance was 76 percent better than league average. That’s pretty incredible. Most notably his ISO was back up to .317, his highest mark since his rookie year.

He would start to build on that rebound, too, until something happened in 1993 that likely changed the course of his career - for better or for worse.

The “Lost” Seasons of 1993 and 1994 for McGwire & the 1995 & 1996 Monster Years

The 1993 season got off to a fantastic start for McGwire who hit .333/.467/.726 in his first 27 games before foot injuries essentially ended his season. He’d try to come back in 1994, and hit “only” .252/.413/.474 in 47 games, still struggling to stay on the field. It was also during this time that McGwire started using more steroids. He’d started using them in the 1989-90 offseason, but started using them more so to recover from injuries. At least, that’s what McGwire claimed.

Something definitely happened, though, because when McGwire got back into playing full time in 1995, he hit a massive .274/.441/.685 (good for a 200 OPS+!) with 39 HR and a huge .410 ISO. In just 104 games, McGwire was worth 5.5 WAR. Then, in 1996, McGwire launched 52 HR with a crazy .312/.467/.730 batting line (196 OPS+) and a .419 ISO. In 130 games, McGwire was worth 6.4 WAR. Trouble was, both of those A’s teams were terrible. Also, McGwire’s contract was up after the 1997 season. So, what would the A’s do?

The Mark McGwire Trade and the St. Louis Years

In 1997, McGwire wasn’t slowing down. He hit .284/.383/.628 with 34 HR in 105 games. It wasn’t quite the same crazy isolated power... not yet. The A’s, needing desperately to inject some fresh blood into the team, decided to trade their superstar slugger to the St. Louis Cardinals for three pitchers. Eric Ludwick and Blake Stein never amounted to much, although T.J. Mathews pitched some decent innings. Of course, in retrospect, it was a very underwhelming trade.

McGwire went on to hit 24 more HR with a .253/.411/.684 batting line - and an isolated power of .431. I don’t think I have to say much about how ridiculous that is, but consider that old Busch Stadium was a lot friendlier to hit at than the Oakland Coliseum. In fact, in 280 career games at Old Busch Stadium, McGwire hit .286.450.726 with 119 HR. That’s compared to .252/.380/.535 with 166 HR in 654 games! Such is the difference a ballpark can make.

Of course, Busch Stadium helped, but in 1998, McGwire would take it all to a brand new level. While the A’s hoped that McGwire would return to Southern California, and hopefully the A’s, McGwire approved of his new Missouri digs and re-upped with the Cardinals. It would be a good decision.

The Record Year: McGwire Beats Maris, Sosa, and the World (‘til Bonds, of course)

Of course, from McGwire’s own admissions in 2010 of having used steroids, 1998 was the key year that he used performance enhancing drugs. At this point, St. Louis had suffered through some mediocre years and baseball was still reeling from the player’s strike just three years before. The 1998 Cardinals wouldn’t be a world beating team, but they would be a winning one. It’s fair to say a lot of it had to do with their first baseman.

It also didn’t hurt that the 1998 Cardinals were actually a decent hitting team, with Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan having fine seasons, along with Delino DeShields and a young third baseman named Fernando Tatis. (Yes, the dad of Tatis Jr.) Unfortunately, a young Matt Morris and still effective Todd Stottlemyre couldn’t save a mediocre pitching staff.

In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa got into one of the craziest home run races in recent memory. It would end up becoming historic. Ken Griffey Jr. was in the hunt for awhile, but he’d match his 1997 total of 56 in th end. It would be Mark McGwire that would break Roger Maris’ single-season record of 61, hitting his 62nd home run of 1998 against - most appropriately - Sosa and the Cubs. Of course, the Cubs and Cardinals being such major rivals made the home run race all that much more exciting. Sosa would finish with 66 HR. McGwire would finish with 70 HR.

Not only did McGwire finish with more home runs, setting the single-season record that would stand until Barry Bonds would eventually break it himself. McGwire just had a monster season overall, with a massive .299/.470/.752 batting line good for a ridiculous 216 OPS+. By contrast, Sosa would manage just a 160 OPS+.

Of course, it didn’t end there.

McGwire’s Final Years

1999 would be a step back for the St. Louis Cardinals, as they would go on to post a losing record. However, it was at no fault of McGwire, who would hit .278/.424/.697 for a 176 OPS+ with 65 HR. It would also be the year he’d hit his 500th HR, seemingly cementing his place in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

By 2000, though, as the Cardinals were getting better, McGwire’s body was breaking down. Incredibly, in 2000, McGwire still hit .305/.483/.746 with 32 HR in only 89 games. He’d also hit a big home run in the playoffs. The 2001 Cardinals would be extremely good, but unfortunately, it was also the end of the road for the 37 year old slugger. He’d hit just .187/.316/.492, although he’d add 29 HR to his final career total and still manage a league-average-ish OPS of 105+. Even at the very end, Big Mac was still all about the home run.

Of course, it’s pretty obvious now that McGwire had some help. Yes, the ballpark move helped. But, that’s a crazy power spike to come seemingly out of nowhere.

Yeah, we know now, there was a reason for it. But, was it all the steroids?

So, Would McGwire Have Hit 70 HR Without Steroids?

McGwire maintains that he only used steroids to recover from injuries, for health reasons, not just to bulk up. While there’s likely some truth to that, there’s absolutely no doubt that McGwire realized the benefits to using steroids for bulking up. So, of course, there needs to be some asterisks put on those massive numbers. But, as we learned later from Jose Canseco, the number of players using steroids was so many… so, did it really lead to an unfair playing field?

Many people are hardliners on the use of performance-enhancing drugs like steroids. I certainly was a hardliner at one point. But as the years have gone on, I now feel that there is perhaps a chance to give at least one of those steroid-era sluggers a chance. I’ll look at other cases such as Raffy Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds later. But, I really feel like McGwire should still get a plaque in Cooperstown.

I feel that Oakland Coliseum probably stole a few home runs here and there from McGwire. Since home runs have such a massive impact on slugging percentage (as they count as four total bases, which is how slugging percentage is figured), losing just a handful here and there makes a big difference in overall batting lines. Here’s the thing. If steroids actually added about 100 points to McGwire’s slugging percentage, would McGwire still have been a Hall of Famer?

McGwire’s career OPS+ is 163. If we were to regress his slugging percentages even 100 points in those monster seasons, it’s likely that the total decreases significantly. But even if you subtract 20% of his home runs 1998 forward, you still have a Hall of Famer. The point is that steroids may have helped, but…

Did McGwire Just Become a Better Hitter?

Mcgwire claims that he didn't need the steroids to hit more home runs. He says that his vision therapy, close study of pitchers, and shortening his swing is what led to the home run rampage. Are these difficult to quantify improvements enough to relax the impact of steroids and brute strength alone?

It has been proven time and time again if you are looking to hit home runs, and you have the raw ability to do so, you will hit more of them. Usually, however, there is a trade-off. Not with McGwire. Of course, steroids do not improve your plate vision. Hitting home runs, however, can indirectly improve your walk rate. That's because naturally pitchers are going to pitch around you more.

Yes, McGwire did have intentional walks. But not as many as you may think. He had 28 in 1998, which didn't even lead the league. He had 21 in 1999, which led the National League. But in 2000, he only had 12. Yes, he played only about half a season, but that’s still not a lot.

The point of this boring story, as Chris Bodig at Cooperstown Cred likes to say, is that those walks were more a function of those Cardinals teams not really being that great. He was by far the best hitter on the team. Even if he were early career Mcgwire, those intentional walks still would've happened I would argue. Sure, he got quite a few intentional walks but not an absurd amount of them.

The Launch Angle

So, yes, I believe that a good amount of Mcgwire’s home run hitting was skill. Also keep in mind that the great hitters of the era such as Mcgwire, Sosa, and Bonds all to some.extent figured out the launch angle. Griffey Jr was a natural at it. He had such quick bat speed that if he hit the ball at a decent angle, it was usually gone. Probably the best example of the perfect EV plus LA swing was Hank Aaron's natural stroke.

I've speculated for years why the “Bash Brothers” McGwire and Canseco started juicing in the 1989-1990 offseason as Canseco claimed in his book and McGwire later admitted. Of course, Canseco always claimed it was to beef up and hit home runs. Mcgwire said it was for recovery purposes. I think in fact they are both correct. After all, Mcgwire did struggle with a couple of essentially lost seasons. But, I think that the timing of the juicing is awfully coincidental.

Keep in mind that 1989 was the year that “The Kid” Ken Griffey Jr was unleashed on baseball. Also, keep in mind how pretty much everyone in baseball saw him smashing all the records. A lot of other players, especially the sluggers, saw what this kid could do. I wouldn't say it was out of jealousy. Griffey Jr. wasn’t truly exceptional until 1990. But, I'm sure there were many sluggers in the game that wanted to emulate what Griffey could do to a baseball. Who wouldn't?

As we know today, the key to hitting home runs is "barrelling" the ball by finding the sweet spot between batted ball exit velocity and launch angle. Steroids were some sluggers way to bulk up to get that extra oomph behind the ball. But even back then, it was clear that the long ball became more of a priority after Griffey arrived on the scene.

Looking back now, there was swing tweaking for sure and sluggers started working out and building muscle harder than ever. Remember,steroids are not magic pills. you still have to put in the work and you still have to be very talented with your sport. All they do is give you a bit of an edge.

In fact, had Mcgwire and canseco not spent so many years in Oakland, their home run numbers would undoubtedly have been significantly higher. Griffey Jr could hit a ball out of anywhere on pure.talent alone. So yes, I am insinuating that there was some compensation going on to keep up with one of the greatest raw talents baseball has ever seen. I'm sure there was talk behind closed doors.

Baseball is entertainment. Home runs are entertaining. If the whistle had never been blown by Canseco, we may never have known better.

So Why Should McGwire Be in the Hall of Fame?

McGwire’s feats probably saved baseball. Yes, steroids were bad for the game. It allowed a few guys to post video game numbers. But did the home run race destroy competitive balance? Absolutely not. The best team in 1998 was a New York Yankees team that win with pitching and a lineup that was more interested in working counts and taking bases rather than hitting lots of home runs.

(The elephant in the room here of course is Roger Clemens, who allegedly used steroids to extend his career. I will certainly get to the Rocket in a future article!)

The Cardinals were not a good team. The Cubs were good, and won 90 games, but having someone hit 65 home runs does not win you playoff games. Are steroids cheating? Yes. Do they destroy the competition? Looking at the teams who inevitably made the playoffs and made deep runs. I'd say most certainly not.

Also, I'm sure the list of steroids users is much longer than we know. I'm sure Canseco was right and the majority.of the game was probably juicing. In that case it's hardly unfair… The real issue, then, is how do these juiced numbers affect the record books, and just how sacred all those numbers?

We may never know.

Did Steroids Extend McGwire’s Career?

So, for me, the real argument against McGwire being in the Hall of Fame is this: did steroids extend his career? Without the steroids, would have McGwire's career instead petered out in Oakland? I'll spoil my Clemens article a bit by saying this, but I will say they likely helped a bit. But, we will just never know. Clemens certainly reinvented himself a bit as a pitcher in the second half of his career, and McGwire certainly showed great maturity as a hitter after the personal distractions and lost seasons.

I believe that with McGwire having opened up about his steroid use, and still being one of the most popular players of all time, I think Big Mac should get a chance to be in the Hall of Fame. If you choose just one of he, Bonds, and Sosa, to eventually get in, it seems the easy choice is Big Mac. I’m sure a lot of fans will agree.

Is that to say I don't think that Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, and other exposed steroid users should get in? Each of those players deserves their own in depth look. As for McGwire, it may take awhile. Still, for the sake of representing history, McGwire should be inducted, even if his records are forever tainted. He was fun to watch and made coming to the ballpark and watching his teams play a joy. After all, isn't that what baseball about?

Also, watching Pedro Martinez strike McGwire out at the 1999 All Star Game. That, too.

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Who Was the Best Red Sox Player in 1993? Danny Darwin!

9/5/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Red Sox Trivia Time! Who was the best Red Sox player in 1993 by Wins Above Replacement? If you guessed Roger Clemens, you’d be wrong. Heck, even if you’d guessed young shortstop John Valentin you still won’t be correct. It was a 37-year old starting pitcher. His name: Danny Darwin.

Along with Frank Viola and a young Aaron Sele, Danny Darwin helped pick up the Red Sox pitching staff from an unusually poor season from Roger Clemens. Yes, Clemens was about merely average in 1993. Unfortunately, despite a pretty good starting staff, Paul Quantrill kept losing games - despite actually being a pretty decent reliever for most of his career.

Also, despite Mo Vaughn having a good year, Mike Greenwell putting up one of his typically good years, and John Valentin being a very nice young player, the lineup wasn’t great. That’s with future Hall of Famer Andre Dawson at DH, being, sadly, rather mediocre. Those Red Sox finished 80-82 under Butch Hobson.

Of course, none of that was Danny Darwin’s fault.

Danny Darwin’s Career Before the Red Sox

Actually, Darwin had a very interesting career. He actually only made 371 starts in his career out of his 716 career appearances. He actually spent a good deal of his career in the bullpen and was bounced back and forth from the starting rotation and bullpen for most of his career. However, after a nice run with the Texas Rangers, he went to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he had one and a half above-average seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros. He pitched very well and returned as a free agent.

In Houston from 1986 to 1990, Darwin would be worth 13.4 WAR, 5.3 of that coming in his 1990 season when he won the NL ERA title with a 2.21 mark. Darwin started 17 games that year with 3 complete games while also finishing 14 games and saving 2 games. Still, the Astros saw fit to see him leave as a free agent. The Red Sox were only too happy to add the solid Darwin to their pitching staff.

Danny Darwin with the Red Sox

By the time he got to the Red Sox in 1991, the “Bonham Bullet” had already put together a pretty nice career as a “swingman” - a guy who worked both as a starter and a reliever. Unfortunately, Darwin’s first season with the Red Sox didn’t go so well. In 12 starts, he delivered a 5.16 ERA while dealing with shoulder problems and battling pneumonia. Fortunately for both the Red Sox and Darwin, this would not be a free agent bust.

In 1992, Darwin rebounded with one of his typical swingman seasons. He started 15 games and finished 21 more, appearing in 51 total games over the season. Overall, his efforts were worth 2.6 WAR. But where Darwin truly excelled in 1992 was in the starting rotation in the season’s second half. He pitched only one game out of the bullpen. In his 15 starts, he had a 3.50 ERA and 2 complete games. It was a precursor to his best season in the major leagues, 1993.

In 1993, Darwin started 34 games, pitching 2 complete games, 1 of them a shutout. Despite a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.068 WHIP, his 4.29 FIP was a harbinger of things to come. Darwin had a really nice season, but things would go south after that.

In the strike shortened 1994 season, the wheels fell off for Darwin. He started 13 games, and while he went 7-5, had a miserable 6.30 ERA. He was up and down and had a couple of clunkers mixed in between brilliant performances. But arm trouble led to him blowing up in June, after which he was shut down. It looked like the beginning of the end for Darwin, and it was certainly the end of Darwin’s Red Sox career.

Danny Darwin’s Last Hurrahs

After an awful 1995 season split between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers, Darwin caught on with the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 40. He actually pitched pretty well with a 3.02 ERA in 19 starts! Darwin was good enough to net relief pitcher Rich Loiselle from the Houston Astros at the trade deadline. That trade actually was a win for Pittsburgh, who got a very good rest of 1996, a solid rookie campaign as closer in 1997, and decent returns in 1998 before he forgot where the strike zone was and was never good again. Meanwhile, the Astros, who’d been happy to reacquire Darwin, watched him struggle and get released at season’s end.

But, that wasn’t the end for Darwin. He’d catch on with the White Sox in 1997, pitching 21 games, 17 of them starts. His 4.13 ERA was a bit of a mirage, but it was good enough for the Giants to acquire him along with Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez in a trade that famously didn’t work out well for the Giants. The White Sox ended up with a solid closer in Keith Foulke and a decent set-up man in Bob Howry. Darwin and Alvarez would both be mediocre, Hernandez would be fine, but Alvarez and Hernandez would end up with the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays next season.

Darwin would hang around with the Giants for 1998, getting into 33 games, 25 of them starts, and wasn’t particularly good at all. In fact, Darwin was “worth” -1.1 WAR that season. That was the end of Darwin’s playing days. However, Darwin has hung around the game and as recent as 2019 is still a minor league pitching coach.

Danny Darwin’s Career Overview

Overall, Danny Darwin was worth 39.8 WAR over 21 seasons. That includes some really awful seasons where his WAR totals were negative. He was actually significantly better as a reliever, although overall he was a decent slightly better than league-average starting pitcher when he got the call.

Starter: 371 starts, 2396 ⅓ innings, 4.04 ERA, 53 complete games, 9 shutouts, 2.2 K/BB ratio
Reliever: 345 appearances, 620 ⅓ innings, 3.06 ERA, 171 games finished, 32 saves, 2.29 K/BB ratio

The obvious knock against Darwin were his platoon splits.

Vs Right-Handed Batters: 6216 PAs,.234/.281/.361 - .641 OPS

Vs Left-Handed Batters: 6500 PAs, .277/.338/.437 - .775 OPS

In today’s analytically-driven game, Darwin probably would’ve been limited against left-handed batters and probably relieved much more than he started. It’s also possible he would’ve faced fewer batters per season, which may have saved him some of the arm trouble. Darwin was indeed “Dr. Death” on right-handed batters and more analytically-inclined deployment may have made Darwin one of the greatest swingmen of all time.

Of course, Darwin’s career was just fine as it was. He gave Red Sox fans a great 1993 effort and along with his above-average work in 1992 made that 4 year contract at least mostly worth it. He’s still in the game today passing on his extensive knowledge of pitching to younger pitchers. Here’s to a great baseball career that hasn’t even yet ended. Thanks for all your efforts, Danny!.

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From the Steroid Era to the Juiced Ball Era - Ten Years as a Hardcore Baseball Fan

9/5/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Pedro's key rookie card still underpriced AF...

My buddy David from Premier Sports Card Shipping and I were talking about the single-season home run record, the steroid era, and more. That conversation led me down a rabbit hole of thinking about these record-setting sluggers that now see their careers tainted by the use of steroids and other Performance-Enhancing Drugs. Very soon, I'll be writing up some pieces on my thoughts on McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, and the lot. Surprisingly, I've never put my thoughts about them down, and I probably should!

But first, I decided to do a bit of a “bloggy” post today, talking about my thoughts about ten years as a serious baseball fan and how my true love of the game comes from the art of pitching.

The year was 1998. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were slamming home runs everywhere. It seemed like a lot of guys were slamming home runs. After baseball had suffered through the strike shortened 1994 season, no World Series, and a delayed 1995 season, the sport needed a shot in the arm. As it turned out, the two biggest sluggers may have taken some shots, and probably not in the arm.

But, the reason I became interested in baseball is not the home run race. Actually, I was only casually interested in basketball back then. Baseball didn’t really appeal to me much. What caught my attention was a new pitcher on the hometown Red Sox who was making headlines. I didn’t really know much at all about baseball at the time. But, what I did know that what this young ace pitcher named Pedro Martinez was doing was special.

I watched a few games in 1998. Of course, the Red Sox were competitive that season and fan favorite Mo Vaughn was still in his prime. Nomar Garciaparra was in his second full season and easily one of the best hitters in the game. The Sox wouldn’t get very far in the playoffs, but the way that Pedro was able to just baffle batters intrigued me. They were a pretty fun team to watch, too.

But, I didn’t really start watching baseball seriously until after the 1999 All-Star Game. You know, the one where Pedro struck out Barry Larkin, Larry Walker, and Sammy Sosa in the first inning, and both Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell. Matt Williams would only be on base thanks to an error and be caught stealing on a strike-em-out, throw-em-out double play.

After those two innings of that All-Star Game, I was hooked. I loved how this relatively small guy could not only blow fastballs by these mighty hitters, but fool them with offspeed pitches looking stupid, too. For me, pitching was the more fascinating part of the game, and to this day, I prefer pitcher’s duels. “Good pitching” beats “good hitting” they say, and it’s true.

For many baseball fans, it seems like home runs have become the most important thing for a player to do. For me, watching all these big, bulky guys hack away just to hit the ball over the fence seemed silly to me. Sure, you had guys like Mo Vaughn that were just built like that. But I preferred to watch the more athletic and dynamic players like Garciaparra, O’Leary (people forget how good Troy was!), and John Valentin. I know most fans loved McGwire, Sosa, and the other big sluggers. But I preferred to just watch Pedro make batters look silly.

In an era in 2019 where the ball is jumping off the bat more quickly than ever, quality pitching is becoming harder to find. Just look at the 2019 Red Sox. They can hit and light up the scoreboard without any trouble most nights. But, the trouble is, so can the opposing teams. The Red Sox’s best pitcher is Chris Sale, who when he’s right, is probably as good as Pedro was. But Sale isn’t right, right now, and the only other truly good performing pitcher on the current team is Eduardo Rodriguez. I don’t really love slugfests, even though it’s fun to be on the winning side of one. I miss the days of consistent pitching keeping the team in the game so the offense could do their job.

Of course, many times when Pedro took the mound, the Red Sox offense would suddenly go silent. But, that’s because Pedro was just so good that the opposing pitcher would do his best to try and match him. That’s what Pedro’s competitiveness did to a game - it made everyone else just try to be a little bit better. Most of the time, the other team failed. That struggle to score runs always appealed to me more so than how many home runs were hit.

Not to say I don’t love home runs, of course. But, I’d love to see a little balance come back to the game. Fortunately, the game is actually blessed with quite a few very good pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke are likely all headed for the Hall of Fame. Stephen Strasburg has really turned a corner and become the pitcher everyone thought he would be. Chris Sale is one of the best when he’s healthy. Heck, Patrick Corbin has suddenly turned into an incredible pitcher for the Nationals, too. And, of course, who can forget Gerrit Cole becoming dominant for the Houston Astros?

The best pitching teams right now are the Houston Astros (Verlander/Cole/Greinke) and the Nationals (Scherzer/Strasburg/Corbin). To me, the perfect World Series would be these two teams pitted against one another. Of course, the Dodgers, with their own Hall of Fame bound ace, young hurler Walker Buehler, and a solid staff of effective young and old hurlers have a good chance to the the last ones standing. I always side with pitching, but it’s hard to ignore what the Yankees, Dodgers, and Twins are doing this year bludgeoning everyone to death.

In my ten years as a baseball fan, I’ve been delving into the stats and trying to better understand the game I’ve come to love so dearly. Right now, I feel like the game needs a young phenom pitcher - or several - to absolutely dominate. I think there are a few candidates in the game right now. I don’t know who it will be that rises above the others, but as with everything in sports, offense and defense have a way of eventually overtaking the other.

I will say, though, that today’s biggest stars are definitely on the offensive side of the ball. Honestly, I’m OK with that. But for me, I’ll always be a sucker for a pitcher’s duel. I’m hoping we see a few of those in the upcoming MLB playoffs. For me, an Astros and Nationals world series with the Nats finally coming out on top (and giving that Expos fan base a sigh of relief) would be the best thing that could happen to baseball right now.

Of course, it will probably be Yankees and Dodgers, and what is more classic than that?

Who do you think will win the World Series this year? Do you think baseball is in a good place right now, or is offense just too nuts right now?

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Is Rick Porcello As Bad As He Looks in 2019?

9/3/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

It’s safe to say that overall, the trade of Rick Porcello to the Boston Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Wilson, and some other guy has worked out just fine for the Sox. Porcello pitched better than that 4.92 ERA would suggest in 2015. Then, after signing a 4-year, $82 million contract, In two of his four years in Boston, Porcello was excellent. Rick even won the Cy Young Award in 2016, which was deserved, and pitched better than the raw numbers would suggest in 2018.

Then there was 2017, which many will argue - myself included - was a fluke. Nothing seemed to go right for the Red Sox in 2017. A 4.65 ERA was propped up by a ridiculous HR/9 rate (38 HR in 203 ⅓ innings). He was at worst league average that year. His strikeout to walk ratio was fine (8.01 K/9 to 2.12 BB/9) and a BABIP of .324 left room for positive regression. Porcello was fine again in 2018, although not nearly the ace-level pitcher he was in 2016.

So, What’s With Rick Porcello in 2019?

But 2019? It’s been an absolute mess for Porcello. StatCast has pretty much backed up the mediocrity, as noted in this mid-August article about Porcello’s free agent prospects on MLB Trade Rumors. However, it is fair to note that he’s not being hit quite as hard as he was in 2017.
His wOBA of .342 is similar to his .348 mark in 2017. But his expected wOBA based on average exit velocity is actually .330, compared to his .345 mark in 2017.

The real concern? It’s Porcello’s strikeout rate, which has fallen to 17.7%, certainly a low mark for him. To his credit, he’s not walking the world at 6.4%, but it’s still high for him. Hs HR/9 rate of 1.57 is second only to the awful 1.68 mark of 2017. Keep in mind this is a guy who kept the ball in the ballpark most of his career; of course, Porcello pitched most of his early career at Comerica Park.

What’s the Future of Rick Porcello in Boston?

The Red Sox did have Porcello approach them about a contract extension before the season. Those talks never seemed more than preliminary. With Porcello hitting the open market after the season, the Sox free up $21 million of payroll. Even with a good September, the contract looks like an overall flop from a results standpoint.

By Baseball Reference WAR:

2015: 0.5 WAR (pre-extension)
2016: 4.8 WAR (Cy Young Award)
2017: -0.2 WAR (Just a mirage?)
2018: 3.1 WAR (Solid pitcher on a World Series Winner)
2019: 0.9 WAR (Why…?)

Is 9.6 WAR over the extension worth $82 million? Perhaps, barely. The 2015 results certainly weren’t great. But when we look at FanGraphs, who looks at FIP-based WAR and not runs allowed WAR, things look significantly different.

2015: 1.7 WAR (not awful)
2016: 5.1 WAR (CY YOUNG!)
2017: 2.0 WAR (League Average skills)
2018: 2.4 WAR (Good, but not as good as you think…)
2019: 1.5 WAR (Eating the innings…)

Suddenly you’re at 11 WAR for the extension and the trade in 2015 looks a lot better. Still, Cespedes was excellent in 2015, so that trade didn’t really work out. But, it wasn’t as bad as it looked from the results. Dombrowski was right to stick with the young hurler he knew well from Detroit. It just didn’t work out as well as anyone would’ve hoped.

Can Porcello Still Be an Effective Starting Pitcher?

At only 30 years old, it’s likely Porcello has a few more seasons left in him. But outside of his curveball, he’s getting hit pretty hard. His sinker has been a stinker. His average fastball velocity is slowly trending the wrong way. A little retooling of his arsenal and a home ballpark friendlier to pitchers could be in his future. It’s likely Porcello has to take a one-year deal - probably with incentives - to rebuild his value.

Someone may rekindle the magic Porcello had in 2016 when his fastball, slider, and changeup were all above average pitches. Maybe he’ll tinker with a cut fastball or splitter to get some weaker contact or whiffs, or both. There’s still a good pitcher in there somewhere. I just doubt that it will be the Red Sox taking another chance. But, Porcello does love it in Boston and he’s well liked by his teammates, so we’ll see. His career isn’t over yet.

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Jason Varitek - The Red Sox Team Captain and His 2004 Career Year

9/2/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

The last team captain of the Boston Red Sox, Jason Varitek spent parts of 15 seasons with Boston. He made his major league debut with a base hit in his first and only major league at-bat in 1997. Varitek was acquired by the Red Sox along with pitcher Derek Lowe in the infamous trade for relief pitcher Heathcliff Slocumb. It’s not even close who won that deal, even if Lowe had never done anything. Varitek was the starting catcher in 10 different seasons for the Red Sox and only wasn’t in 2001 due to injury.

Varitek was also one of the most popular players in recent Red Sox history. He was loved by the pitching staff and anecdotally was an above-average defensive catcher. While he was a bit below average in throwing out opposing base stealers, I can say that he worked with some pitchers that were notoriously slow to the plate. The defensive metrics see him as an overall defensive negative, but a lot of those negatives came from his brutal final season in 2011. From all the years I watched him play, I’d say he was at worst perfectly average behind the dish - but above average as a pitch receiver.

Jason Varitek Was Mr. Average

While being average is really not exciting, in baseball being average is extremely valuable. If you look at Jason Varitek’s 162 game average, you’ll see that would he hit 20 HR and drove in 79 RBI in an average season. Those are solid baseball card stats, especially for a catcher. Because of his solid work behind the dish, though, those league-average offensive stats allowed him to be an above-average regular by WAR in 6 out of his 15 seasons.

2001: 1.4 WAR (in only 51 games)
2002: 2.1 WAR (132 games)
2003: 3.0 WAR (142 games)
2004: 4.0 WAR (137 games)
2005: 3.9 WAR (133 games)
2007: 2.3 WAR (131 games)

He wasn’t bad in his first full season in 1999, either, with 1.9 WAR in 144 games. But, Varitek did have some poor seasons with the bat. His rookie year of 1998 wasn’t too hot, and neither was 2000, 2002, 2006, 2008, or 2009. But with a career OPS+ of 99, you can see that on the balance, he was perfectly average offensively. The good news is that Varitek’s dWAR (WAR from Defense) is a positive 8.8 for his career. So, in fact, Varitek was ever so slightly better than average, before you count his “intangibles” such as team leadership.

Why Jason Varitek and His 2004 Season Were His Career Best

Most fans may believe 2005 was Varitek’s best year in the Major Leagues. He won the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and made his second American League All-Star Game roster! OK, he did deserve the Silver Slugger.with a 122 OPS+. However, 2005 was also one of Varitek’s worst defensive seasons if you believe the defensive metrics from Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved. Still, his overall contributions were worthy of an All-Star appearance and were worth 3.9 WAR to the Red Sox.

Of course, in 2004, the Red Sox won the World Series for the first time in 86 years! Best season ever!

OK, that’s not why, but yes, Varitek was a big part of the Red Sox success that season. Despite no accolades, he was worth a career-high 4.0 WAR to the regular season 2004 Sox. He also hit a career high .296 and a career high on-base percentage of .390. His offensive contributions amounted to a 121 OPS+. Defensively, Varitek was 3 runs above average by Total Zone’s metrics and perfectly average by DRS.

In the postseason, Varitek was OK in the Division Series. But, he was a major contributor in the classic ALCS against the Yankees. While Varitek was a non-factor in the World Series, it didn’t matter.

Speaking of the postseason, in 2007, Varitek’s bat didn’t show up in the Division Series, but it did in the League Championship against the Indians and in the World Series versus the Rockies. So, Varitek really did help the Sox win their 2nd ring in 4 years.

Jason Varitek’s Legacy

Various injuries and trouble in his personal life did affect Varitek’s on-field performance at times. But, Varitek was loved by his teammates and is anecdotally one of the more underrated catchers of his era. In fact, I can’t think of another catcher that was as consistently league-average as Varitek.

The only ones better I can think of offensively are Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, and Mike Piazza. “Pudge” and Piazza are Hall of Famers and Posada has a case for a plaque. “Pudge” was easily the best defensively of his era. Joe Mauer was obviously great early in his career, too, which started towards the end of Tek’s own career.

Sure, Tek isn’t a Hall of Famer. But, he did have a very nice peak and hit better than you’d expect from your typical catcher.The defensive metrics also mostly show that Varitek was in fact a very good catcher on defense. We don’t have pitch framing metrics for that time period, but I can almost guarantee he would’ve been among the league leaders. In fact, had Varitek not played in the same era as Pudge Rodriguez, it’s likely he’d be remembered as one of the best of his era without question, behind only Jorge Posada.

It’s an old baseball saying that great teams are great up the middle. So, it’s no surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees had two of the best catchers in the game during their respective eras. Sure, Varitek didn’t come close to Hall of Fame standards. But, he was at least the #3 or #4 overall catcher in the American League in his peak years. Catchers like Tek don’t come along everyday, and you’d be hard-pressed to ever expect another one to come along.

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Will Jhoulys Chacin Be Useful to the Red Sox?

9/1/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Somehow, I completely missed the Boston Red Sox signing of pitcher Jhoulys Chacin. With September 1st meaning expanded rosters, Chacin gets a chance to crack the starting rotation. Chris Sale is out for the rest of the regular season (and part of the playoffs if the Sox even make it). Besides Eduardo Rodriguez having a nice little year, the rest of the starting rotation is a mess. Price is coming back, but when he has been healthy, he’s been overall underwhelming, too.

Jhoulys Chacin has been a fairly effective starting pitcher for much of his career. He had a poor year in 2014, but his 2016 which he split between the Angels and Braves wasn’t what it appeared on the surface. His 4.81 ERA wasn;t backed up by his 4.01 FIP. Chacin was just unlucky. The Padres figured that too and Chacin pitch well for them in 2017. The Brewers followed suit and he was very effective. His second year with the Brewers didn’t go so well and here is Chacin on a minor-league, no risk deal with the Red Sox.

Unfortunately, Chacin is probably less unlucky in 2019 than he’s just been ineffective. His 5.69 FIP isn’t much behind his 5.79 ERA. However, his 1.93 HR/9 rate is wildly out of character for Chacin, and his xFIP (which uses a normalized HR/9 rate) is 5.24. Another thing in his favor is a higher than normal BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .308, compared to a career .281. While StatCast sees batters hitting him harder than they have in awhile, it is fair to say Chacin has been slightly unlucky on balls in play.

The projections aren’t really kind to Chacin, but there is good news.They basically see him as a roughly, if slightly below average, starting pitcher for the rest of the year. At the very least, Chacin will eat some September innings. The hope is that Chacin pitches a bit above average, as he has in the past, giving him a boost going into free agency. I personally like Chacin and if he impresses, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox try to bring him back.

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Trot Nixon - An Unsung Hero of the 1999 to 2005 Red Sox

8/30/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Christopher Trotman Nixon, better known as “Trot,” was a first-round selection of the Boston Red Sox. Despite how highly Nixon was regarded, his first few seasons in the minor leagues weren’t all that exciting. Nixon did get called up to the Major Leagues in 1996, and got 2 hits in 4 at-bats. His 1997 season at AAA Pawtucket was merely OK, although he did hit 20 HR and steal 11 bases.

But, it wasn’t until 1998 when he broke out at AAA in a big way, hitting .310/.400/.513 with 23 HR and stealing 26 bases. Trot was rewarded with a cuppa coffee in 1998 and didn’t do much to impress. The 1999 season, however, his true rookie season, would be a very good one.

As 1999 was the first season in which I personally began to watch MLB on a regular basis, Trot Nixon was a young star that I enjoyed watching play. In 126 games, Nixon hit .270/.357/.472 with 15 HR, 51 RBI, and stole 3 bases. Those Red Sox teams didn’t really run, after all. Also, despite 7 errors, Nixon flashed the leather with defense worth 15 runs above average thanks to his above-average range.

Trot finished only 9th in Rookie of the Year voting, although it was a pretty stacked year in 1999. His own teammate, Brian Daubach, in his own first full season finished 4th. It was also Carlos Lee’s rookie year, although he didn’t outperform Trot, although Chris Singleton, who finished 6th in voting, actually did. The winner that year was Carlos Beltran, which was honestly a smart decision, especially considering the career Beltran would have.

Trot Nixon’s Solid Numbers and 2003 Career Year

Because of various injuries, Trot Nixon never would display his once above-average speed in the major leagues. So, while he was once thought as a 20 HR/20 SB threat, that never came to be. What did come to be was that Trot translated his spectacular plate discipline and above-average power to above-average major league performance. Injuries would also limit his range in the field, but he’d still be an above-average defender overall for the most part until the tail end of his career.

However, from 1999 to 2005, Trot was never a below-average player. Keep in mind that 2 WAR is a roughly average regular in the major leagues playing a full season.

1999: 2.9 WAR in 124 games
2000: 2,5 WAR in 123 games
2001: 3.8 WAR in 148 games
2002: 2.9 WAR in 152 games
2003: 5.1 WAR in 134 games
2004: 0.9 WAR in 48 games
2005: 3.4 WAR in 123 games

Trot’s best year was 2003, a year that many expected the Red Sox to make the World Series. Of course, Aaron Boone made sure that didn’t happen… But Trot posted a career best slash line of .306/.396/.578 for a 152 wRC+ with 28 HR and 87 RBI. Those results were partially fueled by a slightly high .334 BABIP, but he did have a truly good year. He also hit very well in the playoffs and may have been the ALCS MVP that year had the Red Sox not been eliminated.

Nixon wasn’t a below average player until 2006, when he posted only 1.1 WAR in 114 games. Injuries finally caught up to him and he was never the same player again. He was truly awful after leaving the Red Sox for the Indians in 2007. and didn’t fare too well in 2008 with the Mets, either.

Trot Nixon’s Ability to Drive in Runs

There were a couple of knocks against Trot Nixon that limited his overall numbers. Firstly, he was dreadful against left-handed pitching (.630 career OPS vs LHP, ..872 career OPS vs RHP). The other major knock against him was that in the “clutch” it seemed like Trot was more likely to draw a walk rather than get a big hit. This may sound like a silly knock in today’s game where walks are much more highly valued. But, it is true that in high leverage situations, Trot hit just .256/.348/.433. That’s compared to .290/.380/.480 in medium leverage plate appearances and .270/.359/.466 in low-leverage PA’s.

However, I argue Trot was much more “clutch” than some commentators suggest. After all, Trot had 223 RBi in 864 plate appearances and 711 at-bats. That means Trot had an RBI for every 3.87 plate appearances and an RBI for every 3.19 at-bats. Those ratios are pretty spectacular. So, he made the hits he did get count! Trot was also an extremely good hitter in the 8th inning, with a career .879 OPS in that inning.

The reason he has a poor reputation in the clutch? He was below average in the 9th inning, hitting merely .220/.332/.390 (.722 OPS), and he hit a dreadful .200/.304/.300 (.604 OPS) in extra innings. Those things being said, not all of those 9th inning plate appearances were high leverage situations and 71 PA’s in extra innings is an awfully small sample size. He also has positive career marks in WPA (Win Probability Added) and WPA/LI (Win Probability Added in Late Innings). The one downside is that his “Clutch” score was negative in every season except 2004 and 2005.

So, was Trot Nixon bad in the clutch? Perhaps, as far as the leverage indexes are concerned. What I can say is that Trot helped his teammates trot across home plate in high leverage situations on a regular basis. In that way, I’ve always felt he was underrated.

Trot Nixon’s Time with the Indians & Mets, Retirement, and Career Overview

Somewhat ironically, it was Trot Nixon who played for the Indians that the Red Sox came back to beat down three games to one in the 2007 ALCS. After a lousy regular season, Nixon was actually a good contributor for the Indians in the ALCS. It was a strange feeling for him, especially when he came back to Boston, where he received a very warm welcome.

Nixon retired before the 2009 season after a subpar stint with the Mets and a failed comeback in early 2009 with the Brewers. Trot went home to Wilmington, North Carolina to spend more time with his two children. He now serves as a co-host for a high school football highlight show called “The 5th Quarter” for a local channel.

As it turned out, the Red Sox turned to J.D. Drew to replace Nixon. Somewhat ironically, Drew took Nixon’s #7 with the Sox. While it was a frustrating five years for Drew, who dealt with many nagging injuries, overall he was actually a very similar player to Nixon. Drew, of course, had a great 2007 playoffs and helped the Sox win the World Series. But, replacing the popular Nixon, he never really endeared himself to fans.

Trot Nixon wasn’t just a fan favorite for his consistent production, often underappreciated by non-Red Sox fans. He was a great teammate and his explosive temper actually endeared him to fans. Most of all, Boston fans loved him for his hustle and enthusiasm for the game. He constantly was getting his uniform dirty making great plays and hard slides on the basepaths. Trot became the inspiration for the term “Boston Dirt Dogs.”

Had Nixon been a bit better against left-handed pitching, he may have posted even better numbers; the Red Sox often spelled Nixon against lefty starters for guys like Gabe Kapler, Wily Mo Pena, and other lefty mashers. Still, from a sabermetric standpoint, Nixon was an above average player for a long time, even playing through injuries and ineffectiveness against same-side pitching.

Trot, hope you’re having a great time with your new career and with your family!

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Bernie Williams - The Yankees Star Even a Red Sox Fan Could Love!

8/29/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

When I began following baseball around the turn of the 21st century, the Red Sox and New York Yankees rivalry was as hot as ever. One of my favorite players to watch right from the beginning was Bernie Williams…of the Yankees. That's right. The long time Yankees center fielder spent all 16 major league seasons in the Bronx. I saw him right towards the end of his prime. Today, I feel like he's become vastly underrated.

For eight seasons, 1995 to 2002, Bernie Williams was consistently one of the best players in baseball. His counting stats were never that impressive, but someone who consistently hits 20 HR, 100 RBI, steals 10 to 15 bases, and hits over .300 is going to be damn valuable. Whether coincidence or not, it so happens that Bernie's peak almost perfectly coincided with the Yankees eight year Dynasty. What held him back, interestingly enough, was his "Gold Glove" defense.

That's right. The 4 time Gold Glove winner was actually a below average center fielder. Sure, he made the plays. The problem was that he didn't really have great range as a center fielder. I certainly never thought of Bernie as bad a fielder as the defensive metrics have him. In retrospect, he was probably better suited to a corner, but staying in center field is what gave him such impressive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) numbers. He finished with 49.6 WAR according to Baseball Reference. That is nothing to sneeze at, but well short of the Hall of Fame standard.

However, Bernie was a postseason hero on several occasions and probably a better fielder than Total Zone would lead you to believe. He also won FOUR World Series with the Yankees and hit very well even in losing efforts. I always thought of Bernie Williams as a future Hall of Famer? Will he ever get a plaque in Cooperstown? It's highly unlikely, but he is on the Today's Game Committee ballot for 2022.

Then again, Chris Bodig makes an excellent case for Bernie Williams as a Hall of Famer on his excellent website Cooperstown Cred. I happen to agree with his arguments. But while I am usually a stats oriented guy like he, I'm going to look back at his peak performance merely as a fan…

Of course there will be some stats and a particular focus on his breakout career year. But, mostly, observations extrapolated from my experience and memories as a teenaged fan. Of course, even then I was obsessed with stats…

Bernie Williams and His Early Career

Like many baseball stars I grew up watching, Bernie Williams' career began in the Junk Wax era of card collecting. In fact, Bernie's first cards debuted in 1987, the widely considered beginning over the Junk Wax overproduction. It's also the year of my birth.

Anyway, 1987 ProCards was the official cardboard debut for Bernie Williams. Several other minor league issues would follow in 1988 and 1989. Bernie's first official rookie card was 1990 Bowman, which thankfully has a glossy Tiffany version if you're looking for his key rookie card to collect. It's a great card. Bernie also appeared in 1990 Donruss, Topps, and Score.

Bernie's major league debut wouldn't come until 1991, but by 1992 he would become an above average player in MLB. Bernie would post a 2.0 WAR Mark in just 62 games in 1992 and a 2.5 WAR Mark in 139 games in 1993. Building my "Junk Wax" Dynasty, I would be very happy to fill out my roster with a young Bernie Williams.

Bernie's Breakout Season of 1995

After a strong showing in the strike shortened 1994 season, Bernie would have his best season in the Majors by WAR. It would be the beginning of his 8-year peak. He would amass 6.4 WAR, with the best defensive season of his career by defensive WAR (1.7)... Ok, enough stats…

I wasn't watching baseball at that time, but 1995 was the year that Bernie was becoming the player I'd later admire. His 18 HR and 82 RBI were nothing to sneeze at. He did steal 8 bases, but was caught 6 times. However, he also hit .307. Keep in mind this is back when batting average was still far, far more important than on base percentage. These were stats that fans were excited about.

The Yankees were getting really good, too. While the hobby was going into decline around this time, what kid didn't want to have some Bernie Williams rookie cards? He was a young star, and he was legit.

Bernie Williams: The Best Hitter of the Late '90s Yankees Dynasty, Who Was Almost a Red Sox...

Chris Bodig goes into it in great detail in his piece on Bernie Williams on Cooperstown Cred, but even as a more casual fan in the late 90's, I knew just by watching him that Bernie Williams was the best hitter on the Yankees. I often wished he played for the Red Sox. Well, ironically, it almost happened just as I was getting into following the sport seriously…

After the 1998 season, the Boston Red Sox actually made Bernie Williams a six year offer for $90 million - with a seventh year option on the table. Keep in mind, Mike Piazza signed a seven year $91 million deal with the Mets not long before that, at the time, the largest contract in baseball history. Arguably, that one worked out pretty well…

The great news for the Yankees is that they decided to offer a seven-year deal worth $87.5 million, which he accepted. The even better news is that the Yankees would've instead signed Albert Belle… and we all know where his career went after that. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they not only lost Mo Vaughn to the Angels, but they essentially replaced Vaughn with.Jose Offerman (who actually was quite good in 1999, believe it or not).

There's a non zero chance that had Bernie gone to Boston, the Sox may have won both the 1999 and 2000 World Series. In retrospect, the Yankees should consider themselves very fortunate that Bernie returned to the only organization he'd ever known. They likely would have won in 2003 and 2004, as well. (No one was beating Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2001.)

Oh, what could’ve been…

Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer?

From my observations, Bernie Williams was absolutely, positively a Hall of Famer. He had as many, if not a couple more, big hits in the postseason as Derek Jeter - who is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The Yankees not only may not have won all four of those rings - they may not have even gotten to the postseason some years without the consistent bat of Bernie Williams. As the Yankees primary cleanup hitter, he was the centerpiece of their offense. Period.

It also helps that Bernie Williams is also one of the most likable people to ever play the game of baseball. His second career as a jazz musician has also been a phenomenal success. Since he made so much money in his career, Bernie uses his musical talents mostly for charitable causes. If he’s not a Hall of Fame ballplayer, Bernie’s a Hall of Fame human being.

Bernie Williams is one of those guys who I’ll just throw WAR out the window and put him in the Hall of Fame anyway. As it is, modern center fielders are vastly underrepresented in the Hall. If he’s not elected into the Hall by the Today’s Game Era Committee in December 2021, I will be greatly disappointed.

Bernie, I wish you continued success in all you do!

You can visit Bernie’s official website: www.bernie51.com

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Rich Garces - "El Guapo" and His Career Year as Boston Red Sox Setup Man

8/29/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

While not eligible for my Junk Wax Dynasty series, Rich Garces himself did in fact begin his career in the infamous era of overproduction for sports cards. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for Garces, setup men don't get much love at all in the sports card hobby. Who they do get love from are the sports fans, and that's what matters most, right?

There are many reasons for me to write about Rich Garces. One is that he and I share both a first AND middle initial, although his middle name is different. As 1999, Garces' breakout year, was my first full year following Major League baseball and my hometown Red Sox, his remarkable performances stand out in my memory.

Rich Garces and his Early Career

Garces actually had two cups of coffee with the Minnesota Twins in 1990 and 1993. He certainly didn't embarrass himself, but the Twins never really gave him a chance. But because of his decent cuppa in 1990, Donruss, Fleer Ultra, Upper Deck, Bowman, Stadium Club, and Topps all gave him a rookie card. Topps even named him a Future Star. Despite Topps having a terrible track record with those Future Star predictions, they were actually somewhat correct in this case.

The Twins released Garces in October 1994 and he caught on with the Chicago Cubs in 1995. Remarkably, he pitched fairly well in 7 games, before being put on waivers and claimed by the Marlins. He didn't pitch so well for them. So, he would be released by the Florida team and find his way to the Red Sox.

Rich Garces and the Red Sox (1996 to 1998)

In 1996, Garces got his first real taste of the major leagues after impressing at AAA. It wasn't pretty, but he managed to post 0.4 WAR. He certainly didn't embarrass himself. The performance was good enough for the Pacific Card Company to name him one of their Gems of the Diamond for the 1997 Pacific Prisms set. Unfortunately in 1997, Garces pitched very little at the major league level and was roughly replacement level when he did. But, his spectacular results at AAA prompted the Red Sox to give him another chance.

Garces was actually not too bad in 1998 with the Red Sox. While he posted unimpressive numbers in AAA, he got his chance in MLB. He was pitching in one of the biggest years of offense that baseball has ever seen. Garces actually posted a career high 0.7 WAR with a solid 3.33 ERA in 30 games. Of course, like had happened so much already to Garces, he found himself released at the end of the season. Of course, the Sox would change their minds and resign him.

Rich Garces as a Premiere Setup Man

Garces actually spent a good chunk of the 1999 season at Triple-A being dominant. It would take the Sox a bit to realize that keeping him down was probably stupid. When he finally came up to stay, the portly Garces was already a fan favorite. He would respond with his best performance yet for a playoff bound Red Sox team.

Particularly astonishing about Garces was his ability to stifle left-handed batters even as a right-handed pitcher. Despite not having much of a fastball, Garces made a living as a relief pitcher with a sharp curve ball and splitter. That splitter would be his bread and butter pitch at his peak.

Despite his 1.55 ERA in 1999, it would not be his career year. Despite an ERA of 3.25 in 2000, Garces was actually much better, posting a 2.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to Baseball Reference in 64 games that season. Whether you believe in WAR or not, his 2.0 mark along with his 1.7 WAR in 1999 is actually a fair representation of his actual value to those Red Sox teams.

Somewhat tragically for the hobby, there were no major card releases for Garces in either 1999 or 2000. We'd have to wait for 2001 Topps and Topps Chrome to collect Garces in a mainstream release again. He did have a couple of minor league cards and a 2000 Red Sox Photocard.

The Twilight of Rich Garces' Career

For the rest of his career, Garces was a decent, if unspectacular middle reliever. Even in 2001 for the Red Sox, he wasn't quite the same, although he was worth 1.1 WAR in 62 games. After a dreadful showing in 2002, Garces was done in Major League Baseball, although he attempted a couple comebacks before retiring as a player to become an independent league pitching coach.

Thanks for the memories, El Guapo!

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The Zack Greinke Trade: One Month Later

8/27/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

With the 2019 MLB season having only a single Trade Deadline on July 31st, baseball fans expected a hectic deadline. While not quite as busy as expected, with a great many of the traded players being relievers and many teams holding pat, there were some big moves. The Houston Astros made the biggest splash of the MLB Trade Deadline by acquiring ace starting pitcher Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The cost of acquiring an ace pitcher was extremely steep for the Astros, who were surrendering their number 3, number 4, and number 5 prospects - 1B Seth Beer, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, and RHP Corbin Martin (injured and out after Tommy John surgery), plus INF Josh Rojas and cash. That cash is said to be about one-third of Greinke’s remaining salaries.

But, the upside of the deal would be huge. The Astros would go into the stretch run with a starting rotation of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Wade Miley. It was not their only move, either. The Astros also picked up RHP Aaron Sanchez and RHP Joe Biagini, plus minor league OF Cal Stevenson, surrendering OF Derek Fisher.

Also, the Greinke trade was not a rental. Greinke is also under contract for 2020 and 2021. With Cole and Miley both due to become free agents at the end of the 2019 season, Greinke will join Verlander in the next two seasons, along with the return of Lance McCullers Jr. and hopefully top prospect Forrest Whitley.

So, one month later, how did this trade look?

As of 8/27/2019

Zack Greinke: 2.45 ERA in 4 starts, 4 wins, 0 losses, 25 ⅔ innings, 15/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. +0.4 bWAR

So far, so good. And the DBacks side?

Seth Beer: .657 OPS in 21 games, 82 at-bats, 1 HR (Double-A)
J.B. Bukauskas: 7.71 ERA in 2 starts, 7 innings, 11/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio (Double-A)
Josh Rojas: 1.518 OPS in 8 games, 35 at-bats, 3 HR, 14 RBI (AAA)
.497 OPS in 13 games, 36 at bats, -0.2 WAR (MLB)

With Corbin Martin sidelined, so far this trade looks very lopsided. Rojas got to the majors with Arizona, where he was blocked in Houston. It’s too early to tell if Rojas is going to be good in MLB, although StatCast sees his expected wOBA being .294 rather than his real mark of .231. His expected wOBA on contact is .346, which is still below league-average, but encouraging based on his early struggles. Also, for what it’s worth, projection system Steamer sees Rojas as a league-average hitter (96 RC+) for the rest of the year. Not bad.

The sample size for the other two prospects is pretty tiny. So, let’s see the projections. Steamer sees him as a .261/.324/.440 hitter in the Majors right now, about league-average with a 94 RC+. For Bukauskas, the outlook is much less rosy, with a 5.01 ERA and a decent strikeout rate of 8.52 but a lousy walk rate per nine innings of 5.47.

Obviously, it’s too early to say, but essentially, Houston got an ace in Greinke for a decent infielder, a guy whose big minor league power may not translate to MLB, a future reliever, and an unknown in Martin who’s coming off Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. It doesn’t look so hot for the DBacks. But, what about that unknown?

In fairness, Martin’s projection is significantly better than that of Bukauskas: 4.55 ERA with 9 K/9 and 3.91 BB/9 according to Steamer. ZiPs is nowhere as bullish: 5.33 ERA, 7.36 K/9, 3.45 BB/9. Those numbers are clearly weighing his poor performance before surgery this year more so than Steamer. But, Martin could save this whole deal, along with Rojas. Right now, Houston is very happy to have a likely future Hall of Famer for now and the next two seasons.

Did you see this deal coming? What was your favorite deal of the 2019 MLB Trade Deadline?

…

If you’re a card collector, the key rookie card for Zack Greinke is his 2002 Upper Deck Prospect Premieres Autograph. It’s most valuable if graded Gem Mint (PSA 10 or BGS 9.5). But, there are also many other Zack Greinke rookie cards to collect if you are interested in collecting or investing in the likely future Hall of Fame pitcher.

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Boston Red Sox Cards - The Topps Heritage High Number Xander Bogaerts Rookie Card!

8/27/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner ofIntent-sive Nature & theBrand Shamans network

I'm personally a BIG fan of the Topps Heritage product. While it may not have the big hits of Bowman Paper & Chrome, the card designs are classic and the sets have some fairly nice rookie cards. I've had my eye on the 2014 Xander Bogaerts High Number Rookie Card #H550 for a little bit.

In early August 2019, this High Number rookie card had a PSA 10 pop of 189 and was selling for $20 to $25, with a high of $34. Raw, they sold for $10 to $15 like nuts on eBay! Interestingly, there are only 36 graded by BGS - one graded BGS 9, 31 graded BGS 9.5, and 4 graded BGS 10. But, by late August, there were only a few raw sales around $10 and very few of the PSA 10s were being listed. The only ones you’d find listed were anywhere from $60 to $75!

With Bogaerts easily one of the best, if not the best, current shortstop in the game, it's no surprise that people flocked to grab this affordable rookie card. Clearly, people decided to hold onto their copies. I expect PSA will grade more than a few of these before 2019 is out and with Bogaerts’ superstar play, it’s likely this will be the next of his rookie cards to see solid gains.

The other of Xander Bogaerts’ more popular rookie cards as far as grading is his 2012 Bowman Prospects card and its Chrome counterpart, both of which have exploded in price since June 2019. There are 159 PSA 10 graded examples of the Bowman “Paper” Prospect card. But, for some reason, I can’t find the population of the Chrome cards - PSA apparently omitted it from its POP report for that set. What I can say that the same card has 204 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint examples from Beckett, so the PSA pop of the Chrome card could be higher than its paper counterpart.

Anyway, the Chrome PSA 10 shot from about $20 shipped to $50 shipped in roughly a month. Now, that card is about a $70 example. Likewise, the graded “paper” card shot up from about $15-20 to over $40. Of course, the autographs are the more sought after cards, and they carry a $200-250+ price tag. That’s why the non-auto is so attractive, because of the significantly lower price point.

Topps Heritage High Number is not going to have nearly the same print run as something like 2012 Bowman and Bowman Chrome. So, it’s possible that the High Number Rookie Card could be an attractive long-term investment. At the very least, it’s a great rookie card of a Red Sox star with great eye appeal and a vintage feel.

What’s your favorite rookie card of Xander Bogaerts?

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Are Lonzo Ball Rookie Cards Worth Investing in for the 2019-2020 NBA Season?

8/27/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

With the NBA season fast approaching, sports card collectors are placing their bets. Whether collectors are looking for quick flips, investing for the current season, or holding for the long term, everyone has varying opinions, oftentimes strong ones, about who is worth buying. Of course, Zion Mania is gearing up. But, in a star driven league, there are plenty of players who are getting collector attention.

One of the more interesting players being talked about in the sports card market is Lonzo Ball. Between constant injuries and a move to New Orleans, Ball's rookie cards took a nosedive. Of course, that drop presented opportunity.

More than a few NBA card collectors and investors snapped up multiple copies of Lonzo Ball's 2017 Panini Prizm Rookie Card graded PSA 10. His more rare Silver Prizm Rookie card has become a hot target, as well. His Prizm Rookie Signatures, pictured here, is another card worth looking at.

Of course, many people may wonder why put money on Ball? He's been consistently injured and isn't guaranteed starter's playing time in New Orleans. However, with Zion Williamson coming in, and Jrue Holiday already there, the chance for Lonzo Ball to reemerge as an impact player for the Pelicans is there. In fact, popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight projects his career to be about as good as the highly regarded Jayson Tatum and even better than that of young Utah Jazz star Donovan Mitchell.

Yes, Lonzo Ball will have to stay healthy and actually perform. But, the skills are there and he may have a chance to really prove himself. Plenty of collectors are taking the risk on him and so are the Pelicans. Will the Pelicans and investors be richly rewarded? We shall see.

Who are you looking forward to collecting leading up to the regular NBA season?

...

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Join thePit Sports Card Collecting and Investing Forum on Facebook today!

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Hobby Graphs - Mike Soroka 2015 Bowman Chrome Draft RC Auto

6/17/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

In general, pitchers can be tricky investments when it comes to baseball cards. Generally, offensive players tend to appreciate the best over time, whereas pitchers see their cards rise and fall more quickly based on a few good or few bad starts. Once pitchers show any sign of being merely average, their card prices can plummet.

However, over the years, there have been many promising young arms that perform like emerging aces. In 2019, we’ve seen a few like Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito. These guys were sort of expected to deliver these results. Mike Soroka has been a bit more surprising. He’s not really a strikeout guy, but he is getting the job done. Because of an ERA under 2.00 through mid-June, the hobby is actually pretty excited about him.

Take a look at these recent sales on eBay:

Raw sales
6/16/19 $85*
6/16/19 $70*
6/13/19 $72*
6/10/19 $65*
6/10/19 $63
6/10/19 $64
6/9/19 $78
6/8/19 $75*
6/8/19 $75*
6/8/19 $67*
6/7/19 $72
6/7/19 $65*
6/7/19 $70
6/7/19 $58
6/7/19 $59
6/1/19 $52
6/1/19 $40

Raw refractor sales
6/13/19 $125
6/13/19 $102.50
6/11/19: $76
6/10/19: $150

Bgs 9.5/10 auto
6/12/19 $200
6/11/19 $168.50
6/9/19 $176.50

Interestingly, there are a lot of best offers for the raw cards, so I had to dig for final values with Watchcount. So, the figures may be a bit off. However, it seems that the fair market value is around $65-70 for the Mike Soroka base Chrome Auto.

On the other hand, Soroka BGS graded copies seem to be getting more of a premium at auction than usual. Typically these Bowman Chrome autos realize about a 70 percent premium over raw examples, although for some players the return can be larger. We are seeing something like a 250 percent premium with Soroka. That’s pretty significant. There’s clear investor interest here. Is it justified?

How Good is Mike Soroka?

Between his debut on April 18, 2019 to his start against the Miami Marlins on June 7th, 2019, Soroka had a 1.38 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP! After a rough start in Pittsburgh in which he gave up 5 runs, his ERA and WHIP “ballooned” to 1.92 and 0.97 respectively. That start didn’t seem to affect his prices, though.

While Soroka’s 21.1% strikeout rate isn’t elite and his 6.3% walk rate is simply very good, he’s been limited contact at an elite level early on in his career. His wOBA against is a mere .237. That’s in line with guys like Justin Verlander and Hyun-Jin Ryu, as well as emerging aces Tyler Glasnow, and Lucas Giolito. Of course, we have to consider if this level of performance is sustainable.

Soroka’s expected wOBA based on quality of contact, thanks to Statcast, is .287. For reference:

Tyler Glasnow: .229 wOBA vs .232 xwOBA
Hyun-Jin Ryu: .231 wOBA vs .255 xwOBA
Justin Verlander: .233 wOBA vs .262 xwOBA
Lucas Giolito: .233 wOBA vs .266 xwOBA
Mike Soroka: .237 wOBA vs .287 xwOBA

Who compares more to Soroka by xwOBA?

Mike Soroka: .237 wOBA vs .287 xwOBA
Walker Buehler: .247 wOBA vs .282 xwOBA
Josh Tomlin: .276 wOBA vs .287 xwOBA
Jake Odorizzi: .246 wOBA vs .288 xwOBA
Marcus Stroman: .299 wOBA vs .290 xwOBA
Carlos Rodon: .312 wOBA vs .289 xwOBA

That’s not a bad group of names. Walker Buehler is a strong pitcher for the Dodgers. Odorizzi is one of the Twins better pitchers. Stroman is one of the more sought after rotation pieces in trade. Rodon has pedigree and is currently underachieving. Soroka’s own teammate, Tomlin, has been a very effective pitcher in the past. So, even if Soroka regresses, he’s still a very good starting pitcher.

Is he worth spending $175 for a BGS 9.5/10 auto, however? In general, pitchers are very risky investments. We’ve seen some pitchers buck that trend, but in general they need to be elite with excellent track records, such as Justin Verlander or Craig Kimbrel, to be safe investments. At this point, it may be better to buy raw and get graded, since the premium is currently so high. But it is worth noting that the only guy that people get really excited about in the Hobby from that second list is Walker Buehler. Interestingly, Buehler’s raw 1st Bowman auto cards are becoming more expensive than Soroka’s, but graded they aren’t much more.

Is Mike Soroka a Good Investment?

So, the question you have to ask yourself before investing, is Soroka going to be the next Justin Verlander? Probably not. Will he be more like Walker Buehler? That’s not too bad. But, as good as Soroka looks now, he could end up very much like those other guys (Tomlin, Stroman, Odorrizi, and Rodon). Not that they are bad pitchers, but they have all had significant ups and downs. Odorizzi’s auto’s are around $10, Stroman gets a few bucks if you’re lucky. Rodon is around $5. Tomlin… yeah. Of all those four guys, Rodon is young enough (26) that he could turn things around - his career hasn’t been that bad after all.

Soroka is a very good pitcher who’s excelled in the minor leagues. But, a lot of these guys did. The chances of Soroka falling into the second tier above are very real, but becoming a solid #2 like Buehler would mean his cards are worth holding. But as we’ve seen, slightly above average pitchers are getting about $5 to 10 for their 1st autos now… and that is not what you want for ROI. I’m skeptical, but definitely watch Soroka. He could be an emerging ace, indeed. He just needs to strike out more guys like Glasnow and Giolito before I would recommend buying in.

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Hobby Graphs - J.T. Realmuto 2014 Donruss The Rookies Auto Rookie Card!

6/11/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

After a solid, but unspectacular April and May with his new team, the Phillies, catcher J.T. Realmuto has started off June 2019 hot! Has Realmuto’s card market heated up, as well? Not yet, believe it or not. But, there is one card that stands out as the market favorite, and it’s not the typical card you would expect.

While Realmuto has a wide number of autographed rookie cards, the most popular, as far as sales on eBay, is his 2014 Donruss The Rookies auto. While most people prefer 1st Bowman issues, Realmuto lacks one. He has a few great Topps autos, including in 2016 Topps Heritage and some higher end sets. But the most easily available is the Donruss The Rookies card.

There’s a lot to like about this card. It has a classic blue and red Donruss border and design, a solid pose of Realmuto in his catching gear, and an on-card auto. While it lacks the team logo and name, as do all Donruss/Panini products, this lack of MLB licensing doesn’t hurt the card.

Despite the sheer number of sales, the prices have been all over the place. While Realmuto is now playing in a big market, and playing fairly well, his card prices haven’t taken off, nor does it seem there are many graded examples of this card yet. StatCast actually suggests that Realmuto is about to have a real breakout - .330 wOBA and .372 expected wOBA - thanks to a career high 90.6 MPH average exit velocity on his batted ball events. A career high 11.5 Barrel percentage is a good sign as well.

Recent sales

2019-03-18: $28
2019-03-25: $23.50
2019-03-31: $56
2019-04-14: $36
2019-04-14: $26.22
2019-04-18: $22.52
2019-04-18: $22.72
2019-04-18: $18.50
2019-04-18: $15.49
2019-04-18: $21.05
2019-04-22: $42.50
2019-04-22: $42.50
2019-04-22: $42.50
2019-04-22: $42.50
2019-04-24: $30
2019-05-04: $29.75
2019-05-12: $25.25
2019-05-19: $21.75
2019-05-21: $42.50
2019-05-21: $42.50
2019-05-28: $28.25
2019-06-01: $28.55

Notes: April 22nd sale was a lot of 4 copies. May 21st sale was 2 copies.

Wow, that is all over the place… Averaged out it’s about $31.32 per card, but that is quite a chart! The going retail price seems to be in the $40 to $45 range in early June so it seems current sellers are aiming for the high end. If he begins performing like his quality of contact suggests this being a $40 card is not out of the question.

Is it worth grading?

If graded a PSA 10: $55 to $75
A BGS 9.5/10 auto: $50 to $65

At the moment, it hasn’t been a prudent financial move to get this card graded. There are only three graded by PSA, and they all came back as an 8 (Near-Mint/Mint) - not great. The very few autographed cards from this set haven’t fared well, although there are very few examples. Mookie Betts’ base card is the key card from this set. A PSA 9 is only going to give you a slight bump, so the risk hasn’t been worth sending to PSA. There aren’t any BGS examples of this card, but the few Beckett examples from this set have fared better with them.

Realmuto could become a big star for the Phillies and this card has been popular enough that it’s probably going to be a key card going forward. While his Elite Extra Edition parallel autos have held higher price tags, this seems to be the key card for investment.

How do you feel about J.T. Realmuto going forward?

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Hobby Graphs: Dallas Keuchel - Topps and Bowman Rookie Cards

6/7/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

Until the MLB amateur draft was over on June 6th, 2019, two of the top free agents were still in some kind of purgatory. Those were All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel and starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel. We covered Kimbrel and his rising rookie auto card stock already. So, let's look at Keuchel who is joining the Braves on a one year deal.

(This post is being written before his first AAA start at Gwinnett on 6/8. So, we could see some price movement based on how that goes...)

While Keuchel hasn't yet replicated his great results from his brilliant 2015 Cy Young award winning campaign, he's still a very good starting pitcher. He had a tough year in 2016 and bounced back in 2017 with a decent injury shortened campaign. He was above average in 2018, but a decreased strikeout rate apparently gave some teams pause in making a long term commitment to the lefty.

The Braves only have about 13 million dollars on the line. He could end up being a bargain and the anchor the Braves desperately needed at the beginning of June. Keuchel is at worst a #3 starter, but he is usually a bit better than that. Keuchel is leaving the only organization he has ever known in Houston for Atlanta. The funny thing is that it’s not his first time in the National League, as he pitched for the 2012 Astros who were still in the National League Central. In any case, the league change should be refreshing for him.

What’s Dallas Keuchel’s Best Rookie Card?

Oddly enough, Dallas Keuchel is a bit atypical for most recent players as he doesn’t have an autographed 1st Bowman card. Don’t let that on-card signature fool you - that’s not a real autograph on his 2009 Bowman Draft Prospects card, just a fascimile! However, that means his 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects card is his key rookie card. Collectors like Keuchel’s 2012 Topps Update RC and 2012 Bowman Chrome Draft RC, as well. That he doesn’t have a rookie autograph card is both good and bad. Good, he’s very affordable. Bad, his cards have a bit of a limited ceiling.

For our purposes, we’ll first look at the 2009 Bowman Draft Chrome Dallas Keuchel in PSA 10

Recent sales:
2019-06-07: $19.99
2019-06-06: $19.99
2019-06-04: $17.99
2019-06-04: $14.99

At the end of May, a lot of four PSA 10 examples went for $19.50 plus shipping. That buyer made out handsomely, as raw copies of these cards often fetch $4 to $5 each on eBay.

And his 2012 Topps Update PSA 10?

2019-06-04: $19.95
2019-06-02: $10.50
2019-05-29: $19.95
2019-04-22: $25.00

Talk about all over the place! The raw cards sell around $4, but the Walmart Blue parallel and gold parallel are somewhat rarer, yet don’t sell for a premium - which is odd to me. We’ll see what happens with the 2012 Topps Update, but for now, I’d be focusing on the 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft as it’s his 1st Bowman card, autograph or not.

There are Dallas Keuchel autograph cards, of course, but they aren’t close to being rookie cards. For investment purposes, I’d stick to the Bowman Chrome Draft and Topps Update in PSA 10, personally.

Projections:
Steamer (2019 RoS): 3.64 ERA, 101 IP, 17 GS, 7.64 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9
THE BAT (2019 RoS): 3.49 ERA, 151 IP, 24 GS, 6.66 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9

To expect much appreciation in his rookie cards, he’ll have to pitch pretty well. Still, these are reasonable projections based on his decreased 2018 strikeout rate. He’ll have real life value to the Braves most likely. Whether that success translates to his cards, we shall see, but right now, he looks like a buy low and hold in PSA 10. However, I would wait and see how his first few starts back in the MLB shape up before looking to invest.

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Hobby Graphs: Craig Kimbrel - 2011 Topps Chrome Autographed Rookie Card

6/7/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

With the culmination of the MLB Amateur Draft, the top two free agents left on the market, Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, were free to sign with any team without any draft pick compensation. So, of course, both found immediate homes. Here, we will take a look at Craig Kimbrel, who signed a three-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Kimbrel is easily one of the best, if not the best, closing pitcher in baseball. Over 9 seasons (8 of those complete), Kimbrel has amassed 18.0 fWAR (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement) and 20.1 WAR (Baseball-Reference WAR). That’s a far cry from Mariano Rivera’s 56.2 WAR, of course, but consider that Trevor Hoffman had a mere 27.9 WAR over 18 seasons. That’s a fine total for a closer, and Kimbrel is well on his way to potentially blowing past Hoffman in terms of WAR. He’s still only 31 years old.

Craig Kimbrel’s key rookie card is his 2011 Topps Chrome rookie auto. He has a few other good autograph cards as well, including the 2011 Topps Marquee Auto (numbered to 570), 2011 Topps Tier One On the Rise Auto (numbered to 699), and a 2011 Topps Finest Dual Relics Auto (numbered to 499). Budget options include the 2009 Tristar Pro Debut and 2010 Tristar Pursuit autographs. For base rookie cards, Kimbrel has 2011 Bowman Chrome, 2011 Topps Update, and 2011 Topps Finest. So, like many modern players, Kimbrel has a lot of cards to choose from. But for our purposes, we’ll focus on the 2011 Topps Chrome Rookie Auto and its various parallels and refractors.

Recent sales (Base Chrome Auto)
2019/06/07: $40
2019/06/05: $39.95
2019/05/30: $21.55
2019/05/20: $35.99
2019/05/17: $21.49
2019/05/07: $21.50
2019/04/25: $21.50

Recent sales (BGS 9.5/10 Auto):
2019/06/04: Sepia Refractor (#12/99) - $76
2019/06/03: Base - $36
2019/04/22: Refractor (#/499) - $82.01
2019/04/22: Base - $45
2019/04/17: Base - $35

Additionally, in March 18, 2019, a Beckett Raw Card Review 9.5/10 Red Refractor sold for $405.

Obviously, the long layoff did mean that not a lot of cards sold in 2019. But, the good news is that the BGS graded examples are going to gain a lot of value! In general, BGS 9.5/10 Auto examples are worth about 70 percent more than the base version. That was the case when the last BGS 9.5/10 example sold on 6/3 ($21.50 vs $36 is a 67% difference). So, it’s reasonable to expect those BGS 9.5/10 examples to rise to about the $65 range, and higher if Kimbrel posts great results.

Projections:

Steamer (RoS): 2.82 ERA, 34 IP, 34 G, 19 SV, 13.87 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
THE BAT (RoS): 3.46 ERA, 35 IP, 35 G, 12.8 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9

The Cubs will be very happy with either version of Kimbrel at this point with the bullpen woes they experienced during the first two months of the season. From an investment standpoint, you want to hope for closer to the Steamer projections. His rookie autos are a nice buy and hold at the moment.

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J.D. Drew is a Better Baseball Player Than You May Remember

5/24/2019

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network

J.D. Drew hit .278/.384/.489 with 242 home runs over a 14-year career. His glove was worth 69 runs in the outfield according to TotalZone. For his solid bat and above-average glove, Drew was worth a substantial 44.9 WAR. That’s comparable to Hall of Famer Edd Roush and Indians & Tigers legend Rocky Colavito. He has more career WAR than early 20th-century hall of famers Hugh Duffy and Roger Bresnahan. I’m not saying that J.D. Drew belongs in the Hall of Fame. But, at one time, there is a possibility that he could’ve gotten there.

Drew’s 1998 Fleer Update Rookie Card is a really nice looking piece. His card #U100 in the set got plenty of attention from prospectors in the baseball card hobby. As a can’t miss prospect, over six thousand J.D. Drew Fleer Update cards were sent in to PSA. As of May 2019, there are 819 PSA 8, 3477 PSA 9, and 2066 PSA 10 copies in existence. Today, you can buy a copy of a PSA 10 graded J.D. Drew rookie card for $4 to $5 plus shipping. What happened?

J.D. Drew and the St. Louis Cardinals Years

Actually, J.D. Drew turned out to be extremely good. After murdering AA and AAA in 1998, Drew had a torrid 14 game introduction to the major leagues, hitting .417/.463/.972. But, in 1999, after hitting well in AAA, his first rookie season was actually pretty mediocre with the bat (91 OPS+) but exceptional with the glove in center field (17 runs above average). So, in real life, he was worth 2.7 WAR, but that had to be a let down for everyone who had invested in his rookie card.

The 2000 season was a good one, though, for Drew. He’d hit 18 HR, steal 17 bases, and have a .880 OPS, good for a 121 OPS+. 2001 was a monster year, as he hit for a 160+ OPS. But even then, he started missing games here and there with nagging injuries. This would be a theme throughout his career. He would only play more than 140 games in a season three times. Even so, he racked up 18.1 WAR in 6 seasons with St. Louis.

J.D. Drew and His Career Year With the Atlanta Braves

After the 2003 season, Drew was traded along with Eli Marrero for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and Adam Wainwright. It would be a good trade in the end for the Cardinals as Wainwright blossomed into an ace pitcher. But it was also good for the Braves, who got Drew’s biggest season and the only season in which he hit more than 30 HR - .305/.436/.569 with 31 HR and 12 steals for 8.3 WAR.

Drew was looking pretty good at this point with 26.4 WAR in 7 seasons Interestingly, though, Drew had zero All-Star game appearances, despite being an All-Star level player in all but 2003, and he only played 100 games that year and still collected 2.5 WAR. That’s because his power numbers were good, but not great, and he missed a lot of games with nagging injuries.

J.D. Drew, the Dodgers, and the Red Sox

A two-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers proved fruitful as he posted 3.2 and 4 WAR seasons. What’s most impressive is that his 3.2 WAR season was in an injury-marred 2005 campaign in which he played only 72 games. The Red Sox really liked what they saw in 2006 and gave Drew a five-year, $80 million contract.

While many Red Sox fans seem to remember only the beginning and end of that contract ,Drew actually was pretty good with the Red Sox. After an injury-marred 2007 in which he still managed to play 140 games but diminished at both the plate and the field, he was actually an important piece of the Red Sox’s run to winning the 2007 World Series. In 2008, Drew played very well and earned his first All-Star game appearance, and then he got hurt again...

Fortunately, Drew managed to be just as good in 2009 and actually played 140 games. But in 2010, despite playing 139 games, his nagging injuries were clearly eroding his ability at the plate, although he was still a 3 WAR player thanks to still being above league average and very good on defense. In his first four seasons with the Red Sox, he collected 12.2 WAR. That’s not a horrible return on investment for $64 million over four years.

Unfortunately, at age 35 in 2011, the wheels just fell off for Drew. He would actually be “worth” -0.9 WAR for the Red Sox in 81 games, a season in which the wheels fell off for the Red Sox in general. Had he not been hurt, Drew could’ve helped save that 90-win season. But, he was clearly a washed-up player at that point. A lot of people remember the broken down Drew, and it’s too bad because he actually was a pretty good player.

Could J.D. Drew Have Ever Gotten Into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

The problem is that being “pretty good” doesn’t get you in the Hall of Fame, nor does it help you do well in the baseball card market. Drew was a very calm and quiet player and many people had the impression that he refused to play unless he felt one hundred percent. But, as someone who watched Drew a great deal, I can say that when he did play, he played very hard. He had a great batting eye and a great swing that could do a lot of damage when he was locked in.

Drew was also a very underrated fielder, I feel. His power numbers such as home runs and RBI weren’t eye-popping, but he made up for those with his on-base skills and overall ability to hit for extra bases. He was a perennial All-Star level player that just missed too much time and never really became beloved by any fan base.

Had Drew not missed substantial time in several seasons, it’s quite likely that he would be on the Hall of Fame bubble, right? It’s more likely that Drew’s quiet demeanor and unimpressive power numbers would’ve pretty much eliminated any chance of people seriously considering him for the Hall. Drew actually had a great career, considering how many injuries he suffered.

Still, he suffered his injuries playing hard and he stuck with the game he loved for nearly a decade and a half in the Major Leagues. That’s worth remembering. So, his rookie card being worth only $5 in top condition is actually quite a shame, although as far is the card market is concerned, it’s probably correct.

Still, J.D. Drew is a better baseball player than you may remember. I know he was better now than I realized back then. But, from a sports card investment standpoint, wow, did he let a lot of people down. Of course, it’s not Drew’s fault that over 6000 copies of a piece of cardboard were submitted to PSA for grading. (Plus who knows how many more to Beckett?) He just played the game he loved hard, and made the Cardinals look pretty good for choosing him fifth overall in the draft.

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J.D. Drew is a Better Baseball Player Than You May Remember

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