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Rich Garces - "El Guapo" and His Career Year as Boston Red Sox Setup Man

8/29/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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While not eligible for my Junk Wax Dynasty series, Rich Garces himself did in fact begin his career in the infamous era of overproduction for sports cards. Fortunately, or unfortunately, for Garces, setup men don't get much love at all in the sports card hobby. Who they do get love from are the sports fans, and that's what matters most, right?

As 1999, Garces' breakout year, was my first full year following Major League baseball and my hometown Red Sox, his remarkable performances stand out in my memory.

Rich Garces and his Early Career

Garces actually had two cups of coffee with the Minnesota Twins in 1990 and 1993. He certainly didn't embarrass himself, but the Twins never really gave him a chance. But because of his decent cuppa in 1990, Donruss, Fleer Ultra, Upper Deck, Bowman, Stadium Club, and Topps all gave him a rookie card. Topps even named him a Future Star. Despite Topps having a terrible track record with those Future Star predictions, they were actually somewhat correct in this case.

The Twins released Garces in October 1994 and he caught on with the Chicago Cubs in 1995. Remarkably, he pitched fairly well in 7 games, before being put on waivers and claimed by the Marlins. He didn't pitch so well for them. So, he would be released by the Florida team and find his way to the Red Sox.


Rich Garces and the Red Sox (1996 to 1998)

In 1996, Garces got his first real taste of the major leagues after impressing at AAA. It wasn't pretty, but he managed to post 0.4 WAR. He certainly didn't embarrass himself. The performance was good enough for the Pacific Card Company to name him one of their Gems of the Diamond for the 1997 Pacific Prisms set. Unfortunately in 1997, Garces pitched very little at the major league level and was roughly replacement level when he did. But, his spectacular results at AAA prompted the Red Sox to give him another chance.

Garces was actually not too bad in 1998 with the Red Sox. While he posted unimpressive numbers in AAA, he got his chance in MLB. He was pitching in one of the biggest years of offense that baseball has ever seen. Garces actually posted a career high 0.7 WAR with a solid 3.33 ERA in 30 games. Of course, like had happened so much already to Garces, he found himself released at the end of the season. Of course, the Sox would change their minds and resign him.


Rich Garces as a Premiere Setup Man

Garces actually spent a good chunk of the 1999 season at Triple-A being dominant. It would take the Sox a bit to realize that keeping him down was probably stupid. When he finally came up to stay, the portly Garces was already a fan favorite. He would respond with his best performance yet for a playoff bound Red Sox team. 

Particularly astonishing about Garces was his ability to stifle left-handed batters even as a right-handed pitcher. Despite not having much of a fastball, Garces made a living as a relief pitcher with a sharp curve ball and splitter. That splitter would be his bread and butter pitch at his peak.

Despite his 1.55 ERA in 1999, it would not be his career year. Despite an ERA of 3.25 in 2000, Garces was actually much better, posting a 2.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to Baseball Reference in 64 games that season. Whether you believe in WAR or not, his 2.0 mark along with his 1.7 WAR in 1999 is actually a fair representation of his actual value to those Red Sox teams.

Somewhat tragically for the hobby, there were no major card releases for Garces in either 1999 or 2000. We'd have to wait for 2001 Topps and Topps Chrome to collect Garces in a mainstream release again. He did have a couple of minor league cards and a 2000 Red Sox Photocard.


The Twilight of Rich Garces' Career

For the rest of his career, Garces was a decent, if unspectacular middle reliever. Even in 2001 for the Red Sox, he wasn't quite the same, although he was worth 1.1 WAR in 62 games. After a dreadful showing in 2002, Garces was done in Major League Baseball, although he attempted a couple comebacks before retiring as a player to become an independent league pitching coach.

Thanks for the memories, El Guapo!

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Boston Red Sox Cards - The Topps Heritage High Number Xander Bogaerts Rookie Card!

8/27/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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I'm personally a BIG fan of the Topps Heritage product. While it may not have the big hits of Bowman Paper & Chrome, the card designs are classic and the sets have some fairly nice rookie cards. I've had my eye on the 2014 Xander Bogaerts High Number Rookie Card #H550 for a little bit. 

In early August 2019, this High Number rookie card had a PSA 10 pop of 189 and was selling for $20 to $25, with a high of $34. Raw, they sold for $10 to $15 like nuts on eBay! Interestingly, there are only 36 graded by BGS - one graded BGS 9, 31 graded BGS 9.5, and 4 graded BGS 10. But, by late August, there were only a few raw sales around $10 and very few of the PSA 10s were being listed. The only ones you’d find listed were anywhere from $60 to $75!

With Bogaerts easily one of the best, if not the best, current shortstop in the game, it's no surprise that people flocked to grab this affordable rookie card. Clearly, people decided to hold onto their copies. I expect PSA will grade more than a few of these before 2019 is out and with Bogaerts’ superstar play, it’s likely this will be the next of his rookie cards to see solid gains. 

The other of  Xander Bogaerts’ more popular rookie cards as far as grading is his 2012 Bowman Prospects card and its Chrome counterpart, both of which have exploded in price since June 2019. There are 159 PSA 10 graded examples of the Bowman “Paper” Prospect card. But, for some reason, I can’t find the population of the Chrome cards - PSA apparently omitted it from its POP report for that set. What I can say that the same card has 204 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint examples from Beckett, so the PSA pop of the Chrome card could be higher than its paper counterpart.

Anyway, the Chrome PSA 10 shot from about $20 shipped to $50 shipped in roughly a month. Now, that card is about a $70 example. Likewise, the graded “paper” card shot up from about $15-20 to over $40. Of course, the autographs are the more sought after cards, and they carry a $200-250+ price tag. That’s why the non-auto is so attractive, because of the significantly lower price point.

Topps Heritage High Number is not going to have nearly the same print run as something like 2012 Bowman and Bowman Chrome. So, it’s possible that the High Number Rookie Card could be an attractive long-term investment. At the very least, it’s a great rookie card of a Red Sox star with great eye appeal and a vintage feel.

What’s your favorite rookie card of Xander Bogaerts?
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J.D. Drew is a Better Baseball Player Than You May Remember

5/24/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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J.D. Drew hit .278/.384/.489 with 242 home runs over a 14-year career. His glove was worth 69 runs in the outfield according to TotalZone. For his solid bat and above-average glove, Drew was worth a substantial 44.9 WAR. That’s comparable to Hall of Famer Edd Roush and Indians & Tigers legend Rocky Colavito. He has more career WAR than early 20th-century hall of famers Hugh Duffy and Roger Bresnahan. I’m not saying that J.D. Drew belongs in the Hall of Fame. But, at one time, there is a possibility that he could’ve gotten there.

Drew’s 1998 Fleer Update Rookie Card is a really nice looking piece. His card #U100 in the set got plenty of attention from prospectors in the baseball card hobby. As a can’t miss prospect, over six thousand J.D. Drew Fleer Update cards were sent in to PSA. As of May 2019, there are 819 PSA 8, 3477 PSA 9, and 2066 PSA 10 copies in existence. Today, you can buy a copy of a PSA 10 graded J.D. Drew rookie card for $4 to $5 plus shipping. What happened?

J.D. Drew and the St. Louis Cardinals Years

Actually, J.D. Drew turned out to be extremely good. After murdering AA and AAA in 1998, Drew had a torrid 14 game introduction to the major leagues, hitting .417/.463/.972. But, in 1999, after hitting well in AAA, his first rookie season was actually pretty mediocre with the bat (91 OPS+) but exceptional with the glove in center field (17 runs above average). So, in real life, he was worth 2.7 WAR, but that had to be a let down for everyone who had invested in his rookie card.


The 2000 season was a good one, though, for Drew. He’d hit 18 HR, steal 17 bases, and have a .880 OPS, good for a 121 OPS+. 2001 was a monster year, as he hit for a 160+ OPS. But even then, he started missing games here and there with nagging injuries. This would be a theme throughout his career. He would only play more than 140 games in a season three times. Even so, he racked up 18.1 WAR in 6 seasons with St. Louis.

J.D. Drew and His Career Year With the Atlanta Braves

After the 2003 season, Drew was traded along with Eli Marrero for Ray King, Jason Marquis, and Adam Wainwright. It would be a good trade in the end for the Cardinals as Wainwright blossomed into an ace pitcher. But it was also good for the Braves, who got Drew’s biggest season and the only season in which he hit more than 30 HR - .305/.436/.569 with 31 HR and 12 steals for 8.3 WAR.

Drew was looking pretty good at this point with 26.4 WAR in 7 seasons  Interestingly, though, Drew had zero All-Star game appearances, despite being an All-Star level player in all but 2003, and he only played 100 games that year and still collected 2.5 WAR. That’s because his power numbers were good, but not great, and he missed a lot of games with nagging injuries.

J.D. Drew, the Dodgers, and the Red Sox

A two-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers proved fruitful as he posted 3.2 and 4 WAR seasons. What’s most impressive is that his 3.2 WAR season was in an injury-marred 2005 campaign in which he played only 72 games. The Red Sox really liked what they saw in 2006 and gave Drew a five-year, $80 million contract.

While many Red Sox fans seem to remember only the beginning and end of that contract ,Drew actually was pretty good with the Red Sox. After an injury-marred 2007 in which he still managed to play 140 games but diminished at both the plate and the field, he was actually an important piece of the Red Sox’s run to winning the 2007 World Series. In 2008, Drew played very well and earned his first All-Star game appearance, and then he got hurt again...  

Fortunately, Drew managed to be just as good in 2009 and actually played 140 games. But in 2010, despite playing 139 games, his nagging injuries were clearly eroding his ability at the plate, although he was still a 3 WAR player thanks to still being above league average and very good on defense. In his first four seasons with the Red Sox, he collected 12.2 WAR. That’s not a horrible return on investment for $64 million over four years.

Unfortunately, at age 35 in 2011, the wheels just fell off for Drew. He would actually be “worth” -0.9 WAR for the Red Sox in 81 games, a season in which the wheels fell off for the Red Sox in general. Had he not been hurt, Drew could’ve helped save that 90-win season. But, he was clearly a washed-up player at that point. A lot of people remember the broken down Drew, and it’s too bad because he actually was a pretty good player.

Could J.D. Drew Have Ever Gotten Into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

The problem is that being “pretty good” doesn’t get you in the Hall of Fame, nor does it help you do well in the baseball card market. Drew was a very calm and quiet player and many people had the impression that he refused to play unless he felt one hundred percent. But, as someone who watched Drew a great deal, I can say that when he did play, he played very hard. He had a great batting eye and a great swing that could do a lot of damage when he was locked in.

Drew was also a very underrated fielder, I feel. His power numbers such as home runs and RBI weren’t eye-popping, but he made up for those with his on-base skills and overall ability to hit for extra bases. He was a perennial All-Star level player that just missed too much time and never really became beloved by any fan base.


Had Drew not missed substantial time in several seasons, it’s quite likely that he would be on the Hall of Fame bubble, right? It’s more likely that Drew’s quiet demeanor and unimpressive power numbers would’ve pretty much eliminated any chance of people seriously considering him for the Hall. Drew actually had a great career, considering how many injuries he suffered.

Still, he suffered his injuries playing hard and he stuck with the game he loved for nearly a decade and a half in the Major Leagues. That’s worth remembering. So, his rookie card being worth only $5 in top condition is actually quite a shame, although as far is the card market is concerned, it’s probably correct.


Still, J.D. Drew is a better baseball player than you may remember. I know he was better now than I realized back then. But, from a sports card investment standpoint, wow, did he let a lot of people down. Of course, it’s not Drew’s fault that over 6000 copies of a piece of cardboard were submitted to PSA for grading. (Plus who knows how many more to Beckett?) He just played the game he loved hard, and made the Cardinals look pretty good for choosing him fifth overall in the draft.

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1963 Topps Rookie Stars - Willie Stargell and the “Other Guys”

5/1/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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Many baseball card collectors consider the 1963 Topps #553 Rookie Stars card to be a Willie Stargell rookie card. While that is absolutely true, the legendary Pittsburgh Pirate shares his rookie card with three other outfielders. As is the case with many early rookie cards, Hall of Fame ballplayers share their cards with lesser names. But, since these guys share a Rookie Card with a Hall of Famer, why not see how their careers turned out?

Brock Davis was certainly never a star at the MLB level. In fact, he’d only get into 242 games over parts of 6 seasons, amassing a whopping 0.2 WAR over that time. He carried a decent .331 OBP in his career, but had only one home run and not much else.

Jim Gosger never had much of an MLB career, although he hung around for parts of ten seasons. His 1963 debut with the Red Sox was a dreadful 19 plate appearance cup of coffee. Gosger actually wouldn’t resurface in the Majors until 1965, when he wasn’t a star but instead a league average hitter who gave the Red Sox 1.4 WAR in only 81 games. He would be perfectly acceptable in 1966 as well, but he’d be traded midseason to the Kansas City A’s with a couple other players for three players, including Jose Tartabull, who would be awful for the ‘66 and ‘67 Red Sox. (Tartabull’s son Danny would be a decent player, though). Gosger would carve out a basically replacement level career as a reserve outfielder. He was definitely NOT a star, with a career total of 2.3 WAR!

John Hernnstein is the worst player here, amassing NEGATIVE -2.0 WAR in his short career, 239 games over parts of 5 seasons. Not much to say about him other than he hit 6 home runs in 1964 for a Phillies team that had no business playing him in 125 games.

Meanwhile, this Willie Stargell fellow would amass 57.5 WAR over 21 seasons all for Pittsburgh. He’d hit .282/.360/.529 for an .889 career OPS (147 OPS+). He also hit 475 home runs. While he was a below average defensive outfielder and first baseman according to TotalZone, Stargell was easily a Hall of Fame player.

Considering the other three guys COMBINED for 0.5 WAR, I think it’s safe to say this is a Willie Stargell rookie card with three random guys. (Although, one is a Red Sox player so it counts for my Red Sox collection, which is funny to say!)
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1973 Topps Luis Aparicio - Cards Your Mom Threw Out!

4/29/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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In 2010, Topps created a series of cards called “Cards Your Mom Threw Out” featuring vintage Topps cards with either a new “CMT” back or the original back. These are actually fairly sought after cards by collectors, especially those with the original backs. For me, as a Red Sox fan, the Luis Aparicio CMT-138 is one that’s a nice card to have, as 1973 was not only the last hurrah for “Looie,” but also a pretty good season overall.

Aparicio came to Boston before the 1971 season for second baseman Mike Andrews and infielder Luis Alvarado. Andrews had some nice years for Boston, and would have one more good year in 1971 before fading away. Alvarado never did much of anything. 1971 was a down year for Aparicio and was actually worse than replacement level according to Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement (-0.5 WAR). He’d rebound in 1972 to be a league average shortstop (2.0 WAR). But 1973 was a nice final season for the future Hall of Fame shortstop.

In 1973, Aparicio hit only  .271/.324/.309 with the bat, which wasn’t too good, but he did walk more than he struck out and added 13 stolen bases. He was only caught once, too. During the season he passed the 500 SB milestone to finish with 506 steals. Besides his value on the base paths, Aparicio was worth a whopping 11 runs above average according to TotalZone. That was after being “worth” -8 runs in 1971 and -4 runs in 1972. In his career, Aparicio would be worth 149 runs above average over 18 seasons. He won nine Gold Gloves in his career as an elite defender.

Luis Aparicio’s original 1973 Topps card is hardly a pricey one. You can find one graded PSA 8 for under $10 and one in PSA 9 for around $20 to $25. There are only 8 PSA 10 1973 Topps Aparicio cards, and those can fetch several hundred dollars. Aparicio would also have a 1974 Topps card.that are actually similarly priced, with only 4 PSA 10 copies currently graded. Luis Aparicio’s later cards with the Red Sox aren’t super expensive, but since he’s a Hall of Famer who made a living with his speed and glove, he’s worth adding to any vintage baseball card collection.
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Valuable Red Sox Baseball Cards: 1960 Topps Earl Wilson Rookie Card

3/29/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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While 1960 Topps is rightly better known for a much more valuable Red Sox rookie card in Carl Yastrzemski, another Boston rookie card also deserves attention: starting pitcher Earl Wilson. The right-handed Wilson actually didn't start off that well in his early two stints in 1959 and 1960. In fact, he returned to the minors in 1961. However, when he came back in 1962, he stayed in the Majors for quite some time.

Earl Wilson had a decent first full season in the Majors in 1962, with a 3.90 ERA in 31 games and 28 starts. Also, since pitchers still had to bat in the American League for most of his career, Wilson added 3 home runs at the plate in 1962. Throughout his career, Wilson hit .195/.265/.369 with 35 home runs, not at all shabby for a pitcher.

In his first couple of seasons, Wilson was rather wild, walking 111 in 1962 and 105 in 1963. But his control vastly improved in 1964, which was actually one of his worst seasons in the Majors. From 1959 to 1966, Wilson was worth 8.2 WAR on the mound and 3.9 WAR at the plate, with a 4.10 ERA (95 ERA+) in 156 starts and 174 total appearances.

From these numbers, it would seem Earl Wilson was a solid but unexceptional pitcher for the Red Sox. That much is true. But, as with many decent players that the Red Sox had throughout the 20th century, they traded him away before he delivered on his promise. 

In mid-1966, Wilson was traded to the Detroit Tigers for utility player Don Demeter. While Demeter was a decent player in parts of 1966 and 1967 for the Red Sox, Wilson was exceptional for the rest of 1966.  He'd produce 12 WAR for the Tigers over 5 seasons with a 3.51 ERA in 145 starts (149 total appearances).

Wilson's career would end in 1970 with the San Diego Padres, but he ended his career with 27.6 WAR in 11 seasons.  The Red Sox would've been happy to have him from late 1966 to 1969, missing out on 3 of his best seasons in the Major Leagues. Had that trade not happened, Wilson would’ve been part of the 1967 Impossible Dream team. Who knows what he may have brought to that team’s starting rotation?

It always seemed like the Red Sox were one or two pieces away from winning championships, and Earl Wilson could've been one, just like so many others the Red Sox gave up on too soon.


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Most Valuable Red Sox Baseball Cards: George Kell

2/18/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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Most people think of Baseball Hall-of-Fame third baseman George Kell as a Detroit Tiger. That’s not surprising, as he played in parts of eight seasons with the Tigers and was a Tigers broadcaster for thirty-seven years. But, he started out with the Philadelphia A’s, and the Tigers actually traded Kell to the Boston Red Sox in 1952!

George Kell was part of a nine-player trade that involved Red Sox legend Johnny Pesky going to Detroit. After the trade, Kell hit .319/.390/.453 for the Sox in 75 games. In 1953, Kell would hit 307.383.483 and enjoy a 3 WAR season.

Unfortunately, 1953 would see Kell hit only .258/.361/.290 in 26 games for the Sox. He’d be traded to the White Sox for infielder Grady Hatton and $100,000. Hatton would finish out 1954 well with the Red Sox. Kell would have one more good season with the White Sox in 1955.


There are actually a fair amount of George Kell baseball cards out there depicting the Hall of Fame ballplayer on the Red Sox. The most valuable are graded examples of 1953 Topps #138 and 1954 Bowman #50.

George Kell’s 1953 Topps card is valued around $300 for PSA 8 (Near Mint POP 76) examples, over $600 for PSA 8.5 (Near-Mint+ POP 5), and $1,750 for PSA 9 (Mint POP 8)!

Kell's 1954 Bowman is much more affordable at around $80 for a PSA 8 (POP 84 + 7 with an Off-Center Qualifier), $115 for a PSA 8.5 (POP 3) and $475 for a PSA 9 (POP 9)! There are about the same amount of PSA 8 and PSA 8.5 of each of these cards in existence, but they are still fairly rare.


While George Kell’s legacy is as a Detroit Tiger, his short, fairly productive time with the Boston Red Sox makes his key cards quite valuable to any serious Red Sox baseball card collector.

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What is the Best Julian Edelman Rookie Card?

2/4/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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Super Bowl 53 belonged to the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, but a major part of the Patriots success came from Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman. The wide receiver joined the New England Patriots in the 7th round of the NFL draft after playing quarterback in college. Since then, he’s become one of Brady’s favorite targets and his talent was on full display in Atlanta as the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3.

Obviously, being Super Bowl MVP is a big deal, so Julian Edelman rookie cards became a hot commodity right away as his MVP award was announced. Cardboard Connection has a great list of the top Julian Edelman rookie cards. But, if I had to pick one, I would certainly pick the 2009 Topps Platinum #159.

With only 8 PSA 10 copies in existence, the Julian Edelman Topps Platinum Rookie Card has room to grow. The day after the Super Bowl, raw copies of this card were receiving bids exceeding $40. It’s a nice-looking rookie card and the Topps Platinum Edelman RC has a refractor version, as well as a white refractor, and a platinum refractor numbered to 1549.

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But, while not a “true” rookie card, the 2010 Topps #325 Julian Edelman also saw quite a jump in demand after Super Bowl 53. Bids exceeding $10 were being seen on eBay for this base card. By late August 2019, they were still selling for $10! As of this writing, only a couple of PSA 10 copies exist. One was listed for $199 right after the Super Bowl. There's also a Gold version of this card that sold graded PSA 10 for $40!

The 2010 Topps is still a nice “budget” option and a great card for Julian Edelman card collectors to own. Of course, because the 2010 Topps card is far more common, the 2009 Topps Platinum likely remains the better investment, along with the other serial-numbered and autographed Edelman cards on the market.


What’s your favorite Julian Edelman Rookie Card?

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What is the Best Jared Goff Rookie Card?

2/2/2019

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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In his third season with the Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff enjoyed a strong season at quarterback in the 2018-19 season. Appearing in Super Bowl LIII (53) opposite New England Patriots legend Tom Brady, there's obviously a lot of interest in his rookie cards.

Of course, the Patriots, Brady, and Julian Edelman stole the show in Super Bowl 53, and Goff very much struggled. While the poor performance has certainly put downward pressure on Goff's cards, there's still interest. Since he's still the Rams starting QB, this means a great buy-low opportunity for Rams fans and others who believed in the talent of this young quarterback.

There are many Jared Goff inserts, autographs, relic cards, and low-numbered parallel rookie cards to choose from. So, what is the best Jared Goff Rookie Card?


The most affordable Jared Goff rookie card is his 2016 Panini Score #332 base rookie card. This card has sold as high as $8 leading up to the Super Bowl. There’s also the Jared Goff Score NFL Draft Rookie Card #2, While it’s sold for as little as $2, gem mint 10 graded copies have sold for upwards of $25. There’s also a gold parallel (selling for $30) and a red parallel numbered to 50, selling for $50 or more.

But, the best Jared Goff Rookie Card to collect his the 2016 Panini Prizm #208. The set is beautiful looking and also has rookie cards of Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, and Ezekiel Elliott. With 176 PSA 9 and 210 PSA 10 copies graded of the Jared Goff #208, this is clearly the rookie card of choice for collectors. PSA 10 copies already garner sales of $30 or more, but you can find PSA 9 copies for as little as $10.

There are also many unnumbered parallels to collect in 2016 Panini Prizm, including Blue, Flash, Green, Pink, Red, and Red/White/Blue Disco. There’s also numbered parallels: Orange to 299, Light Blue to 199, Blue Wave to 149, Purple Scope to 99, Red Crystals to 75, Green Power to 49, Camo to 25, Gold to 10, Gold Vinyl to 5, and Black Finite that’s a 1/1.

There are also highly-coveted autograph inserts of this RC, which when graded PSA 10 can sell upwards of $200 with rarer parallels getting sales north of $1500! The 2016 Panini Prizm #208 rookie card looks like the key RC that you’ll want to collect looking forward to Jared Goff’s promising career.

Updated 2/4/19


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The Best Michael Young Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autograph, and Memorabilia Cards

1/25/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
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2006 Topps Co-Signers Ozzie Smith & Michael Young Autograph Card
Michael Young may never reach the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he did have a memorable career, the majority which was spent with the Texas Rangers. Despite strong fielding percentages and high batting averages, though, Young is seen by many analytically-inclined baseball fans as an overrated player. Still, the career .300 hitter was overall a slightly above-average hitter and while he was below average defensively at second base, he wasn’t that bad at his natural position.

For me, what really hurt Young’s overall value was being forced over to shortstop, where he was far below average, and later to third base where he was comparatively even worse. To be fair, the one year Young won the Gold Glove at shortstop, he was actually 9 runs above average by TotalZone’s measure, although he was -4 runs below average by Defensive Runs Saved metrics.

But in the baseball card hobby, we don’t really care about defensive statistics unless your name is Ozzie Smith. But, Smith also added considerable value on the basepaths with stolen bases. To be fair to Young, he only stole 90 bases in his career, but was only caught 30 times. Sure, that doesn’t touch Ozzie’s 580 SB, against only 148 times caught. Ozzie also spent most of his career with the Cardinals, a team that’s always done very well in the card collecting world.

While Michael Young isn’t a player with expensive cards, he’s still an interesting, inexpensive target for baseball card collectors. In fact, he shares some high-end targets with a Hall of Famer and a future Hall of Famer. Let’s take a look at the best Michael Young baseball cards, from his rookie cards, autograph cards, and other memorabilia cards.


Michael Young Rookie Cards

2000 Topps Traded #T46 Michael Young

Michael Young’s first rookie card is the 2000 Topps Traded #T46. It’s often available for $2 or less and shows him with his first team, the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays would trade Young in July of 2000 along with Darwin Cubillan for pitcher Esteban Loaiza. It wasn’t a horrible trade, but the Jays would probably regret it.

Graded examples of this card are extremely rare, with only about 60 of each in PSA 9 and PSA 10 condition. Despite many being listed, they don’t sell that often. This set is mostly known for the Miguel Cabrera rookie card, of which there are 1677 graded PSA 10 copies. Interestingly, it’s a set full of decent rookie cards, including Adam Wainwright and Adrian Gonzalez.

The Chrome versions of 2000 Topps Traded, however, are much more plentiful for Michael Young, with about 125 of each PSA 9 and PSA 10 available. Like the base Traded graded copies, they simply don’t sell very often, despite being listed plenty often.


Michael Young Autograph and Memorabilia Cards2006 Topps Co-Signers Ozzie Smith / Michael Young Dual Autograph Card #CS-83

Prices range from $7.50 to $17.50 for this card! Michael Young also features on a couple other of Co-Signers cards with Nolan Ryan and Kevin Millwood.

2005 Topps Pristine Power Core Game Used BAT KNOB #MY Michael Young #’d to 5

Easily the best memorabilia card of Michael Young out there is the Game-Used Bat Knob from 2005 Topps Pristine. Only 5 copies were ever printed, and one sold for over $30 in January 2019.


Other Interesting Michael Young Baseball Cards


2003 Donruss Team Heroes #525 Michael Young

As a set full of some decent autograph cards, 2003 Donruss Team Heroes is a fairly valuable baseball card set. The Michael Young base card #525 is worth around $1 but the glossy version is worth $2 or more, as are most glossy base cards in the set. There’s also a version numbered to 20 which is valued at over $15. Overall, it’s a set you should be looking into, even if not specifically for Michael Young cards.

2006 Topps Changing Faces - Michael Young w/ Hank Blalock, Kevin Millwork, Mark Teixeira, and Nolan Ryan

If you’re a big Texas Rangers fan, this is a particularly interesting subset of the Co-Signers set. None of them are worth much over $10, but they are cool looking cards. They are also serial-numbered to various amounts, including some #’d to 25. The Nolan Ryan would be my favorite here, as the Ryan Express is a huge hobby favorite.


2008 Topps Update Black #UH127 Michael Young / Derek Jeter #’d to 57

While not a memorabilia card, this card numbered to only 57 copies features Jeter, a future Hall of Famer. For that reason alone, this card can fetch north of $10. In the same set is a Black parallel base card of Michael Young #635 also numbered to 57 copies that can command about $2. The card he shares with Jeter seems like an easy investment to me.


Investing in Michael Young Baseball Cards


While Michael Young was a pretty good player who had some truly All-Star seasons, and is remembered fondly by many Texas Rangers fans, Michael Young baseball cards are among the coldest in the hobby. While there are many graded examples of his Topps Traded rookie cards, they simply don’t find buyers often. Even cards that he shares with Hall of Fame or future Hall of Fame talents tend to sell on the low side.

If you’re looking to make money on your investment in Michael Young cards, the best way to go is to buy one of those cards he shares with Derek Jeter, Nolan Ryan, or Ozzie Smith - all hobby favorites. Numbered relic cards are also a nice investment, since they can be had for cheap, and they can later be sold as part of a player collection.

As with any hobby, you should invest in what you like. If you’re a Rangers fan, or believe Michael Young is a player worth collecting, he’s not a bad choice. He’s just not going to bring much return on your investment in the future.

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Bobby Bonilla 1987 Topps  #184 Rookie Card - A Baseball Card Collector's Guide

1/20/2019

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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Having one of the better rookie cards available from the “junk wax” 1987 Topps set, Bobby Bonilla did deliver on a good deal of his promise. With a .279/.358/.472 batting line, he was a well above average hitter (124 OPS+), but a somewhat below average defensive first baseman, third baseman, and outfielder. Overall, the total package was still an All-Star caliber player, especially in his Pittsburgh Pirates days.

Bobby Bonilla was originally drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates, but was lost to the Chicago White Sox in the Rule 5 draft in 1985. After being generally unimpressive with the White Sox, though, Chicago traded him back to Pittsburgh for starting pitcher Jose DeLeon. It wasn’t an awful trade, as DeLeon would go on to be a fine pitcher for a few years, though only briefly with the White Sox. But, Bonilla also became the player the Pirates originally hoped he would be. It wouldn’t happen in 1986, though.

Then, in 1987, Bonilla hit .300/.351/.481 with 15 HR and 77 RBI. He was on his way to having a few very strong years in a row. Bonilla was well liked at the time and he’d continue to be a productive major leaguer through the beginning of 1998 with the Florida Marlins. So, this is a pretty good rookie card.

While Tiffany and base versions sell of the 1987 Topps Bobby Bonilla rookie card sell for roughly the same, you may want to invest in the rarer of the two sets, which is Tiffany. With PSA populations in the low 30’s, Bonilla’s rookie card in mint to gem mint condition is definitely one to get graded. In early 2019, PSA-graded copies were selling for around $20.


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Junk Wax Dynasty - Bob Tewksbury and His 1992 Career Year

1/2/2019

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture1992 Topps Stadium Club Bob Tewksbury
Digging through all those generally worthless “junk wax” baseball cards of 1987 to 1993, you’ll occasionally find a card that commemorates a great season of a not so famous player. However, to celebrate Bob Tewksbury becoming the Mental Skills Coach of the Chicago Cubs, we take a look at his finest season, which happens to fall right in the Junk Wax era. In building a “Junk Wax Dynasty” it’s important to consider Tewksbury’s 6.4 WAR season with the 1992 St. Louis Cardinals.

The 1992 Cardinals didn’t do much; at 83-79, they placed 3rd in the NL East. Ozzie Smith, Ray Lankford and even Bernard Gilkey were all-star level players that year, but it wasn’t quite enough for them to make the playoffs. Tewksbury pitched like an ace that year, and he never again had a season quite like it, although he was decent in 1993 (2.7 WAR) and had two 3+ WAR years with the Twins at the end of his career.

Interestingly, FanGraphs sees Tewksbury’s 1993 season more favorably than his 1992 season. That’s because FanGraphs uses FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) for its WAR calculation rather than ERA. But for purposes of “Junk Wax Dynasty” we are focusing on results, which is why we’re using Baseball Reference’s ERA/RA9 (Runs Allowed/9) based WAR. FanGraphs has Tewksbury’s 1992 season being worth 4.0 WAR and his 1993 season at 4.3 WAR, thanks to an inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

One thing that FanGraphs does show us, though, is that Tewksbury was probably a better pitcher than his Baseball Reference page may suggest. On Baseball Reference, Tewksbury was worth 21.3 wins in a 13 year career, 10 of those full seasons. But FanGraphs sees him as worth 31.3 wins. That’s because in his “worst” years, he actually pitched better than the results would suggest.

Tewksbury only had a career strikeout rate of 4.04 K/9, but a walk rate of merely 1.45 BB/9. He rarely gave up homers (0.71 HR/9), but with a batting average of balls in play of .300, he relied heavily on his defense. His career ERA of 3.92 belied an FIP of 3.65. So, in reality, he was actually a slightly-above average pitcher who just had some bad luck with defense behind him.

In retrospect, Tewksbury’s 1993 season is actually better peripherally than his 1992 season. In 1992, he had a strikeout rate of merely 3.52 K/9 but a walk rate of only 0.77 BB/9. His strand rate was a high 80.8% and his BABIP only .257, which are big reasons why his 2.16 ERA was a mirage compared to his 3.14 FIP. His 1993 season featured a 4.09 K/9 and a 0.84 BB/9. But he suffered from a .316 BABIP and a more “normal” 70.3% strand rate (career 68.5%).

Still, Tewksbury was actually the pitcher that a lot of teams thought that he was, a workhorse that kept you in games. Suffice it to say, the Yankees should’ve never traded Tewksbury for Steve Trout to the Cubs. Unfortunately for Tewks, he didn’t pitch well for the Cubs and spent a lot of time in the minors until the Cubs let him go and the Cardinals picked him up. He pitched quite well for the Cardinals at AAA, and the rest is history.

If you’re looking to build a team with players from only 1987-1993, consider adding a 1992 Bob Tewksbury to your pitching staff. Heck, even a 1993 Bob Tewksbury would make a fine fourth or fifth starter. At the very least, you know he’ll do all he can to keep you in the game. He was definitely a mentally skilled pitcher, and perhaps, was actually pretty underrated in his time.


Here are more baseball card articles you may enjoy:

- Junk Wax Dynasty - Dale Mohorcic and his 1987 Career Year in Relief
- Junk Wax Dynasty - Randy Ready and His Magical 1987 Season
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Junk Wax Dynasty - Dale Mohorcic and His 1987 Career Year in Relief

12/30/2018

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut
Picture1987 Fleer #131 Dale Mohorcic Rookie Card
Relief pitchers are hardly a big deal in the baseball card hobby. Of course, guys like Dennis Eckersley and Lee Smith have their fans and collectors. But, a lot of the best relief pitchers out there, even the most consistent, don’t have much of a following. Still, when you’re building a dynasty baseball team out of cards from the Junk Wax era from 1987-1993, it’s good to find some diamonds in the rough, guys like Dale Mohorcic.

Who? Sure, Dale Mohorcic was never a household name. But in 1987, his efforts in relief for the Texas Rangers earned him 3.1 Wins Above Replacement for the Texas Rangers. That was a follow-up to a decent 1986 in which he earned 2.2 WAR. I’m sure you won’t hear people wax nostalgic about Dale, but he did have a couple of pretty good seasons as far as results are concerned.

Of course, with a strikeout rate of 4.3 K/9, that leaves a lot of your success up to the defense. Mohorcic’s FIP of 3.98 and FanGraphs WAR of 1.0 in 1987 (and 0.9 WAR in 1986) gives you more of an idea of the pitcher Mohorcic really was. Indeed, both his 1986 and 1987 seasons were fluky. He had a strand rate of 81.1% in 1986 and 80.1% in 1987, both of which are very high. He also had a BABIP of only .248, which is crazy low - although it was a more sustainable .295 in his good 1986 season.

So, who is Dale Mohorcic? Where did he come from, and what happened to him?

Dale Mohorcic the Journeyman

Mohorcic began his quest through the minor leagues began in the short-lived independent Northwest League with the Victoria Mussels. He was the ace of their staff in 1978 with a 2.02 ERA! Dale caught the attention of the Toronto Blue Jays, who purchased his contract. He was underwhelming in their farm system, though, and was released.

The Pirates were intrigued by Mohorcic, though, as a reliever. He actually enjoyed a fine season in 1980 mostly as a closer. The Pirates held onto him until after the 1984 season, trying him again as both a starter and a reliever, but he never really caught on. They let him go before the 1985 season.

He caught on again with the Texas Rangers and enjoyed a decent 1985 season in relief at AAA. He returned in 1986 and found his way to the majors.

After his strong 1987 season, he scuffled early on in the 1988 season. The Rangers decided to move on from him, deciding to try out Mitch Williams - who himself would struggle but become a pretty good pitcher soon after. Williams himself would be traded to the Cubs after the season in an otherwise underwhelming package for Jamie Moyer and Rafael Palmeiro, The Rangers won that trade. The Yankees picked up Mohorcic for Cecilio Guante, formerly a pretty strong reliever, but he only gave the Rangers 0.3 WAR for the rest of 1988 and 1989.

Mohorcic, on the other hand, actually pitched very well for New York, and gave the pinstripes 0.8 WAR in only 22 and two-thirds innings. He was dreadful in 1989 though, being “worth” -1.2 WAR. Mohorcic even spent time in the minors, where he actually pitched very well. Probably because of those good minor league innings, he did catch on in 1990 with the Montreal Expos, pitching well at AAA, and had OK results with 0.6 WAR in 53 innings with the big club. He hung up his cleats after that.

Dave Mohorcic as a Closer?

To be fair, Mohorcic isn’t really someone you’d consider a prototypical closer type pitcher. He walked guys liked a power pitcher, but struck out guys like a finesse pitcher. When he limited the walks, he was pretty successful. But, like a lot of relief guys that pitched to contact, you rely so much on the defense that it’s hard to stay consistent for long periods of time.

Mohorcic hearkens back to the old days of grinding out game after game. This is before bullpens became more specialized. You were either a mop-up guy or a back-end guy like a set-up man or a closer. Mohorcic gained a reputation in the minors as being a shutdown relief pitcher. While he didn’t blow anyone away with peripheral stats, it’s actually possible that Mohorcic could’ve kept pitching and ate some late innings for a few more years.

For my Junk Wax dynasty, I’d consider Mohorcic as a great candidate to serve as a middle reliever or a late inning guy strictly against right-handed batters in a 3+ run game. His platoon splits weren’t great (.247/.309/.364 against RHB and a whopping .305/.351/.446 against LHB). This was a guy who tied Mike Marshall for the major league record of pitching in 13 straight games. It’s hard not to want a guy like that on your team. He showed up and gave his best. In an age of bullpen specialization like today, he’d actually probably have fared a lot better.


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Junk Wax Dynasty - Randy Ready and His Magical 1987 Season

12/30/2018

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by Phoenix Desertsong, Sports Nut 
1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready1987 Topps Traded #97T Randy Ready
In Junk Wax Dynasty, we look at players from the “Junk Wax” era of baseball cards and find the hidden gems from 1987 to 1993. For this installment, we take a look at the career year of a San Diego Padres utility player by the name of Randy Ready.

How many Randy Ready cards from 1987 were put into bicycle spokes? Probably a lot. Funny thing is, utility infielder Randy Ready actually had a career year in 1987. According to Baseball Reference, his performance that year netted the San Diego Padres 5.8 Wins Above Replacement. To put that in perspective, that’s the same number that a young Barry Bonds put up that year. Considering that the Padres acquired Ready in 1986 for a player to be named later that had a career War of -0.1 WAR, the Friars were quite pleased with his performance.

Before we get into that career year, though, it’s important to know what was going on in Randy’s life at the time. This dude dealt with tragedy the year before.. Check this out:

“On June 13, 1986, the day Ready played his first game as a Padre after having been acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers, [Randy’s wife] Dorene collapsed on the floor of their home in Tucson. She was unconscious for 7 to 10 minutes. During much of that time, her brain was deprived of oxygen.”

Oh, boy. That ended Ready’s season right there, so he could go be with his wife and three young sons. His wife had suffered a heart attack that left her with permanent brain damage, and she never recovered from it, So, Randy and his sister Cindy had to raise the children. Later, it would be found that some diet pills that his wife was prescribed were what gave her the heart attack. A few years later, a jury awarded the family more than $25 million in a settlement.

Of course, that eventual money couldn’t make up that loss. Baseball became Randy’s escape. So, it makes what happened that next season even more special.

Ready was a patient hitter who regularly walked more than he struck out. But in 1987, his bat exploded for a .309/.423/.520 batting line for a .943 OPS. That's a 153 OPS+ or 53 percent above league average. He hit a career high 12 home runs and batted in 54 runs. He added 7 steals but was caught three times, so he only added a bit of value there.

In 1987 he played second base, third base, left field, and right field. Ready was a steady average fielder at both second and third base and a bit below average in the outfield. But in 1997, Ready was worth 5 Total Zone runs above average in only 52 games at second base and 3 runs above average at third. He was even 3 runs above average in left field in only 16 games, partly thanks to an outfield assist. In all, he amassed 1.2 defensive WAR.

Unfortunately for Ready, a lot of this success was due to a .325 batting average on balls in play. His .211 ISO or isolated power was backed up by career highs in doubles with 26 and triples with 6. He'd never show that level of power again. So, with eventual career marks of .280 BABIP and .127 ISO, this was a major outlier.

Was Randy Ready in 1988?

Ready was not bad in 1988 but he would be traded to the Phillies along with John Kruk for outfielder Chris James. Obviously, Kruk would go on to be very good. But, it got worse for the Padres. James would be OK, but the Padres would trade James along with Sandy Alomar and Carlos Baerga for Joe Carter. Alomar and Baerga would go on to be very good for the Indians, and even Chris James had a strong year in 1990.

Of course, Joe Carter was a good player, but he went on to be terrible for the Padres. So, he was flipped along with Roberto Alomar (future hall of famer) for infielder Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff. McGriff would be good, but Fernandez would be underwhelming offensively. Imagine if the Padres had Kruk, both Alomar, Baerga, and Ready still… Somewhat hilariously, Fernandez would be part of what could have been an unassisted triple play started by - you guessed it - Randy Ready!

Fernandez would actually never be the player he was in Toronto again (with 2.2 WAR in 1991 and 1.1 WAR in 1992), but he would end up having a late career resurgence, ironically with Toronto in 1993, with Cleveland in 1997, and again very ironically with TORONTO in 1998 and 1999. Of course, the Padres only got one good year out of Wally Whitehurst (2.7 WAR). Man, the Padres made a lot of bad moves…

Anyway, back to Randy...

Randy Ready and the Rest of His Career

Anyway, Ready was never quite as good again after 1987. It’s not hard to imagine why, though, especially with what he had to deal with in his home life. His last really good year was 1991, in which he posted a 1.3 WAR in only 76 games. In that year, he hit .249/.385/.322 for a roughly league average .707 OPS. That batting line included a dreadful .207/.294/.207 (.501 OPS) against right-handed pitching, but a .265/.418/.367 (.785 OPS) against lefties.

The rest of Ready’s career was plagued by some inconsistency with the glove - having some good defensive seasons and some bad - that overshadowed his strong plate discipline. The good news is, he stuck around in the majors until 1995 and played in Japan for a year in 1996. But looking back now, the real thing that held Ready back from being an above-average super utility player were his platoon splits.

Career vs RHP: .246/.341/.356 - .697 OPS in 1180 PA
Career vs LHP: .271/.375/.415 - .790 OPS in 1308 PA

In today’s analytically driven game, Ready would have been strictly a platoon bat that could play second base, third base, and the outfield corners. He would’ve probably been worth 1.0-1.5 WAR in part time duty and perhaps he would’ve settled in at one position, either at second or third base with occasional starts in Left Field or Right Field against a left-handed pitcher. He was also not utilized nearly as much as a pinch hitter as he likely should have, especially in the National League. Still, he cobbled together a decent career as a 25th man, which is hardly something to sneeze at. It’s just interesting that he wasn’t utilized better.

Randy Ready as a Coach and Manager

Randy never really left the game, either. He returned to the game as a minor league manager in 2002 and served as the Padres hitting coach for a bit. That stint as hitting coach proved disastrous as the Padres had one of the worst lineups in baseball. Was that his fault, though? Probably not. Anyway, he has continued in the game as a minor league coach and manager. In 2017, he became a minor league manager in the Marlins system.

Ready is definitely well-liked in the game. The teams he’s managed have often made the playoffs and he’s been an overall winning manager. It’s a shame that his playing career really only had a couple of bright spots (1987 and 1991), but he did have quite a ride.

So, the next time you come across a Randy Ready baseball card, especially from 1987 or 1991, don’t be so quick to dismiss them. In fact, he’s the top utility player in my Junk Wax Dynasty. He deserves to be remembered, even if it’s just for that amazing 5 WAR season in the wake of family tragedy.


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Troy Tulowitzki Released by Blue Jays - What’s Next for Tulo?

12/11/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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With two years and $38 million remaining on his contract, the Toronto Blue Jays decided to release the oft-injured shortstop and buy out his remaining two years. While that is a staggering amount of money to pay a player to simply go away, there is good reason for this move.

The Jays already have a fairly good young shortstop in Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Plus, Devon Travis is still there at second base, with Brandon Drury backing him up. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. will be holding down third base. While it would seem prudent to give Tulo a shot at rebuilding his value, keeping him around simply didn’t make sense for a team that has youth on their side.

As for the 35-year old shortstop, it’s hard to say if he can even remain at shortstop for a full season. Indeed, the projection systems see him as a part-time player at this point. But, this is actually where things get interesting.

His 2019 Steamer projection: 68 games, .252/.312/.422 with 10 HR, and average-ish defense at shortstop for 1 WAR.

While those numbers are a far cry from what the baseball world came to expect from Tulo before his injury-marred 2017 and his lost 2018 (due to bone spurs in both ankles) that means if he can even play half-a-season, he’s still valuable. Now that the Blue Jays bought out his contract, Tulowitzki’s services can be had for the league minimum for each of the next two seasons. So, who wants Tulo for two years and roughly $1.2 million total?

The question is, where does he play at this point? It’s possible he could play first, second, third, or shortstop. With league-average offense and the ability to not embarrass with the glove, it seems like he could fit anywhere, right?

Tulowitzki to the Orioles?

The Baltimore Orioles have Jonathan Villar at the top of their Shortstop depth chart. While speedy and not a zero with the bat, it’s possible that Tulo is still the better fielder at this point. There’s Breyvic Valera, too. Also, second base is pretty wide open, although the solid Renato Nunez probably can hold down third base. Still, there’s some sense here, especially at league minimum for a year.

No one else in the AL East is in desperate need of a shortstop. The Indians, Twins, and Royals certainly don’t need one. The White Sox are committed to Tim Anderson at short. So, who’s next?

Tulowitzki to the Tigers?

As a team that really needs to rebuild, Tulo may make some sense for the Tigers. Ronny Rodriguez tops their depth chart at short. While he’s probably about as good as Tulo at this point, second base is pretty open, too. So, a one-year deal for league minimum makes sense here, too. Like the Orioles, the Tigers have a solid young third baseman in Jeimer Candelario.


In the AL West, the Angels infield is solid. The Astros have Carlos Correa. The A’s have Marcus Semien. The Mariners are probably OK with JP Crawford. Elvis Andrus isn’t what he was with the Rangers, but still more a given than Tulo.

That makes only two teams in the AL that could realistically use TUlo. Neither of those teams would surrender talent for Tulo or take on that contract. He’s pretty much a veteran clubhouse leader who can provide some value off the bench for those two. Both the Orioles and Tigers could benefit from him just being there.

What about in the NL?

Tulowitzki to the Marlins?

While the Braves, Mets, Natinoals and Phillies are set at shortstop, the Marlins shortstop situation is a bit more unclear. Of course, they are in talks about Miguel Andujar - who can technically “play” shortstop. Right now, J.T. Riddle tops their depth chart. Miguel Rojas is there, too. The Marlins also have veteran Martin Prado hanging around. Still, you could see how Tulo could be a nice veteran presence on a rebuilding club. If he ends up playing mostly full-time and clobbers 20 homers, that would be nice. But he makes less sense in Miami than in Baltimore or Detroit. Also, would Tulo even want to play there?


Tulowitzki to the Brewers?

While this isn’t a perfect fit necessarily, the Brewers have Hernan Perez topping their second base depth chart and Orlando Arcia at shortstop. Really, it depends on how much stock you put in Arcia, but at this point, Tulo is projecting roughly as valuable as Arcia in about half the playing time. Plus, he’s far more valuable than Perez, and that means that Arcia can just play where Tulo doesn’t. Then again, the Brewers want to compete and Tulo’s health is not a given. That being said, the commitment is so minimal. It could be a creative fit.

Tulowitzki to the Cubs?

With Addison Russell’s future with the Cubs up in the air - due to the domestic violence allegations - Tulo seems like he could be a stopgap solution. While not a natural fit, he could still be a useful utility infielder even with Russell there.

While no one else in the NL Central needs a shortstop, there is an intriguing possibility in the NL West…

Tulowitzki to the Diamondbacks?

The Diamondbacks are in a weird place. They aren’t quite in a rebuilding phase, as they are still a team that can contend, but they also just traded Goldschmidt - whose contract was expiring after 2019 anyway - and are looking to trade Zack Greinke. They also just lost Patrick Corbin in free agency. This is a team that needs to retool on the fly. Tulowitzki is not only cheap, but moving back to high altitude in Phoenix, Arizona - albeit not quite as high as Denver, Colorado - could boost his offensive numbers a bit. It may be worth a shot.

Tulowitzki to the Padres?

With the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies set at shortstop, the only other possible landing spot for Tulo would be San Diego. The Padres are just a mess, with Luis Urias and Fernando Tatis Jr. topping the depth chart at shortstop. Second base doesn’t look much better. Tulowitzki would at the very least make things interesting. The price is certainly right and it’s not like he’s blocking anyone.


So, the potential landing spots for Tulowitzki are:

Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres

Of course, some other team could take a flyer on him as a utility infielder (a reunion with the Rockies perhaps?) but these are the only teams that make sense to me. We’ll see where he lands.

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Red Sox 2019 MLB Sleepers - Matthew Kent

12/11/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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The 26-year old left-handed starting pitcher, Matthew Kent, is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the Boston Red Sox farm system. He’s no longer considered a prospect at his “advanced” age, but he looks to be a pretty solid pitcher due for a chance to debut in the MLB in 2019 or 2020. He just broke into AAA last year, and it wasn’t a pretty first start. But, Kent’s track record since being taken in the 13th round of the 2015 MLB draft has been very solid.

Matthew Kent 2019 Projections

Steamer: 4.74 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9
ZiPS: 4.79 ERA (4.49 FIP) 5.45 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 1.3 WAR

In his minor league career, Kent’s never struck out many batters, but he hasn’t walked many, either. He’s had a fairly consistent 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is definitely above-average. Kent held left-handed batters to a .241 average in 2018 in AA, but only a .264 average against righties. So, he doesn’t have obvious platoon splits, meaning he’s a realistic multi-inning option.

The MLE’s (Major League Equivalents) for Kent in 2019 aren’t fantastic, but they are passable. He’s never been that susceptible to long balls, so the ZiPS projection of 1.02 HR/9 is probably more in line with his past history. It’s possible that the strikeout rates are a bit low and the walk rates may be a bit high. Even then, a starter being worth 1.3 WAR is worth about $10 million on a one-year deal on the open market. This guy has potential.

That Kent projects so well to essentially be the Sox’s 6th starter speaks well to his ability. He’s not someone you ever hear much about either. He could log meaningful MLB innings late in 2019 or 2020.

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Third Base

12/11/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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There’s no way this author can talk about the Red Sox third base situation without continuing to grieve over the loss of Travis Shaw. Alas, he was traded - along with three minor leaguers - to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Yes, that Tyler Thornburg… he of the lost 2017 season and replacement level 2018 season in 24 innings. He was so bad that the Red Sox didn’t even guarantee his $1.75 million contract for the 2019 season…

Meanwhile, Travis Shaw has been raking at Miller Field, while all the while playing his usual brand of solid defense at third base and even second base. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR in 2017 and 3.6 WAR in 2018! That’s while making the league minimum salary. In his first year of arbitration, he’s due for another 2.6 WAR according to Steamer… Whoops…

The good news for the Red Sox is that master team-builder Dave Dombrowski is able to cover for his only major misstep with the team. The Sox have a very solid young player in Rafael Devers - who could be just as valuable as Shaw in 2019. They also have two young players that may be decent players at the hot corner at some point, as well. Let’s see what the Sox have here.


Rafael Devers

2019 Steamer Projection: 560 PA, .270/.328/.476, .340 wOBA, 7.1 batting runs, 0.8 baserunning runs, -2.6 fielding runs. 2.6 WAR

2019 ZiPS Projection:  .265/.320/.480, -6 defense, 1.9 WAR

Devers is only 22 years old. He had a 1 WAR season with a .240/.298/.433 batting line and 21 HR. That’s not bad for a 21 year old, who was probably a bit overmatched. His -13 Defensive Runs Saved and -5.2 UZR/150 show he wasn’t quite ready with the glove, either. If the projections are right and he becomes simply below average with the glove, he’s an above average player. ZiPS is probably right to be skeptical about his defense. Even then, he’s probably at least an average regular - which for the league minimum and his power upside, the Sox will be happy to take.

Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez are certain to see perhaps a dozen games apiece at third base. But, you really don’t want either holding down the position all year. The good news is that the Red Sox are not devoid of third base prospects.


Michael Chavis

2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.300/.439, -0.1 defense
2019 ZiPS Projection: .242/.299/.449, -1 defense, 1.1 WAR

Chavis isn’t even on Steamer’s radar to have much more than a 7 at-bat cup of coffee. However, it agrees with ZiPS that Chavis is very likely to be about what Devers was last year in 2019 if he played full-time in the Majors. Of course, he’s going to be 24 in August 2019. His defense is known to be shaky, too, which is why he’s been shifting towards first base. The good news is that Chavis could still have some value. He would actually worth be giving a shot if he shows promise at AAA and Devers is failing or hurt.

After all, Chavis did hit .303/.388/.508 in 139 AA at-bats and .273/.294/.545 in 34 AAA at-bats, with an 80-game PED suspension mixed in. The power is real, and he has enough plate discipline to not embarrass himself. If he can become a passable third baseman, or even first baseman, he actually does have a future. It could even be late 2019 or early 2020.


Bobby Dalbec

2019 Steamer Projection: .229/.295/.432, 0 defense

2019 ZiPS Projection: .200/.280/.407, 0 defense, 0.5 WAR

Dalbec probably has no business being in the MLB in 2019, but if he got 450 or so at-bats, he’s probably going to be fairly above replacement level. Of course, that’s considering neutral defense. Scouts consider his defense to be adequate and he has an above-average arm. So, netural defense is probably fine to consider.

In 2018, Dalbec destroyed A+ ball with a .256/.372/.573 and 26 HR in 419 plate appearances, albeit with a 31% strikeout rate. He hit .261.323.514 in 124 plate appearance, but with a 37% strikeout rate. Steamer is a bit more optimistic about Dalbec’s bat than ZiPS going into his age-24 season. The strikeouts are concerning, though.

If Dalbec can trim the strikeouts and fare OK at AAA, there’s still a possibility that Dalbec tastes the majors in 2020. At any rate, he’s the Sox #12 prospect at the moment.

Even after essentially giving away Travis Shaw, it seems like the Sox aren’t in that bad of shape. Of course, one of Chavis or Dalbec becoming at least a passable regular at either first or third base would be a grand development for the 2020 season. If both pan out, along with Devers, the Red Sox are in good shape. Otherwise, that Travis Shaw trade could haunt the Red Sox for awhile. Still, when that’s the worst move you make and still win a championship, you’re doing OK.


Red Sox Third Base: B-minus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Second Base

12/11/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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After Ian Kinsler didn’t hit for the Red Sox after being acquired by them late in the season, Boston is looking forward to the return of Dustin Pedroia in 2019. Not only is Pedroia coming off an injury, but he’s not getting any younger, either. The good news is that he projects to be a league average player, and if his knee is sufficiently healed, he could be better. The Sox also hope for more of the same from super-utility player Brock Holt and a rebound from Eduardo Nunez.

Dustin Pedroia  

2019 Steamer Projection: 518 PA, .272/.344/.390, .321 wOBA, -1.5 Batting Runs, -1.8 Baserunning Runs, 4.0 Fielding Runs, 2.0 WAR

Going into his age 35 season, it remains to be seen what Pedroia has left in the tank after missing most of 2017. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his batting line will be close to the Steamer projection, but many Sox fans will take the over if he’s healthy. Also, depending on his knee’s health, he could provide even more value on defense and hopefully, even be a positive on the basepaths.

He’s earning $15 million in 2019, so if he’s just a 2 win player, he’s earned it. He earns $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It’s not like Pedroia is an albatross, but it would be really nice to see him finish his career as at least a league-average regular before bowing out after 2021.


Brock Holt

2019 Steamer Projection: 105 PA .260/.340/.375, .315 wOBA, -0.80 batting runs, .1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.3 WAR

As a super-utility player is meant to do, Holt kept the Red Sox at least respectable at second base in 2018. He was actually 6th in position player WAR for the 2018 Red Sox. One of the best utility men in baseball in 2014 and 2015, he was mediocre in 2016 and terrible in 2017. Only 30 years of age, Holt is very likely to match his projection, and possibly beat it in overall value if he racks up the plate appearances. Struggles from Rafael Devers at third could mean more time for Holt, as well. He was worth 1.4 WAR in 2018, and it’s not impossible for him to be worth that again - although hopefully the majority of that value is distributed among other positions, too.

Eduardo Nunez

2019 Steamer Projection: 63 PA .284/.318/.424, .319 wOBA, -0.3 batting runs, -0.1 baserunning runs, -0.2 fielding runs, 0.2 WAR

Nunez was a great pickup for the 2016 Sox. It wasn’t hard to see why the Red Sox signed him to a $6 million one-year deal with a $5 million player option - which Nunez picked up in late October 2018. Unsurprisingly, Nunez isn’t expected to receive many plate appearances at second base with Pedroia and Holt around. If he does have a batting line close to his career average - which is what he’s projected to do - and continues to be neutral on the bases and in the field, he’ll be easily worth his $5 million. He still serves as insurance for Pedroia, as long as he doesn’t repeat a -14 Defensive Runs Saved at second...

Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Rodriguez are also in the second base picture, but if the team has to give them at-bats, something has gone wrong.  They are depth you hope you don’t find yourself having to test. Overall, this is a group that projects for about 2.5 WAR, and the over is not hard at all to see if Pedey is actually healthy.

2019 ZiPS Insights

With the release of the 2019 ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski, there are a few more projections to consider. The most interesting is the departing Ian Kinsler. He had a decent 2018 season overall, although he struggled badly with the bat with the Sox. He projects for .252/.317/.386 plus 8 defensive runs for 1.9 WAR over a full season. It’s unlikely they reunite with Pedroia locked up, though.

Farm hand Tony Renda projects about replacement level, as does Ivan De Jesus.  Chad La Guerra and Brett Netzer aren’t looking to help at the MLB level any time soon, either. Second base is definitely a position that has little depth after Pedroia and Holt - Nunez is a stretch as we saw in 2018 at the position. Still, if Pedroia is capable, this is a position where the Sox should be fine.

Red Sox Second Basemen - Solid B

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: First Base (1B)

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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In Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Red Sox have a roughly league-average platoon at first base. Moreland can play against right-handed pitching and Pearce can play against lefties, who he mashes. Sam Travis and Blake Swihart are in the mix there, as well.

The most interesting outside candidate is Michael Chavis, coming off PED suspension and mediocre results, who is projected for a .248/.300/.439 batting line. The good news is that the Steamer projections are fairly conservative in this author’s opinion. Let’s take a look.

Mitch Moreland

Steamer 2019 projection: 350 PA, .251/.325/.441.329 wOBA, 1.1 Batting Runs, -1.1 Baserunning Runs, 1.8 Fielding Runs, 0.7 WAR

Moreland was a shrewd signing by the Red Sox in the 2016 off season that worked out very well. His subsequent two-year deal has also worked out well, although you’d want more out of your starting first baseman than 0.6 WAR. In a pure platoon situation, it’s very possible that Moreland greatly outperforms his .251/.325/.441 batting line projection. In 2018, he hit only .242/.305/.379 against lefties and .246/.331/.450 against righties. He’s only earning $6.5 million in 2018, just as he did in 2017, so he’s not exactly breaking the bank. Also, he is a plus fielder. With a little luck and having Pearce around all season, he could break 1 WAR

Steve Pearce

Steamer 2019 projection: 280 PA, .266/.344/.470, .350 wOBA, 5.7 batting runs, -0.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.6 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Since Pearce is primarily a lefty masher, it’s not outrageous to expect about 1.1 WAR from Pearce. He’s making $6.25 million in 2019, about the same as Moreland. He’s a worse fielder, but if he mostly plays first, that won’t matter so much. Also, if he keeps up his improved walk rate from 2018, he’s likely even more valuable than this.

The other guys may not amount to much, although Chavis is interesting in that he projects for a nearly league-average batting line. He also can play third base, if erratically. If Chavis shows something this year in AAA, the Sox may call him up in 2019.

All in all, this is an above average group at first base. It’s hardly exciting, but there’s a little upside here. This is not an area the Sox have to work on right now, especially if Chavis / Sam Travis can essentially replace Moreland in 2020.

Red Sox First Basemen: C-plus

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Red Sox 2019 Preview: Catchers

12/9/2018

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by  R.A. Rowell; Co-Owner of Intent-sive Nature & the Brand Shamans network
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As a group, the Boston Red Sox are a bit underwhelming at the catching position. Steamer projects the three catchers on the Red Sox roster - Vazquez, Leon, and Swihart - for 1.6 WAR. That’s a bit below league average, although both Vazquez and Leon are above average catchers defensively. Of course, Vazquez and Leon combined for NEGATIVE 1.7 WAR last season, when the team won 108 games. It’s most likely that they don’t repeat that. Let’s take a look.


Christian Vazquez

2019 Steamer: 384 PA .256/.305/.367, .293 wOBA, -10.0 batting runs, -0.8 Baserunning Runs, 1.7 Fielding Runs, 1.1 WAR

Vazquez had a dreadful year with the bat in 2018, but it was mostly due to a .237 batting average on balls in play (career .293 BABIP). He’ll probably never be a fantastic hitter, but the Sox hope he’s more like his 2017 with the bat. If he hits .290/.330/.400, he’ll be about a league average catcher with his glovework and positive pitch framing marks. Even if he’s closer to .260/.300/.370, he’s still a decent “real life” catcher, although you wouldn’t want to touch him in fantasy baseball..

Sandy Leon

2019 Steamer: 192 PA, .225/.285/.346 .277 wOBA, -7.5 Batting Runs, -0.5 Baserunning Runs, 1.0 Fielding Runs, 0.3 WAR

Like Vazquez, Sandy Leon had a terrible regular season with the bat in 2018. Also like Vazquez, he had horrible luck on batted balls in play (.226 BABIP / .290 BABIP career). While it’s unlikely he’ll have another year like his 2016 - .310/.369/.476 in 78 games for 2.5 WAR (!) - it’s not impossible.  Still, his Steamer projection is in line with his career numbers, and 0.3 WAR is acceptable.

Blake Swihart

2019 Steamer: 64 PA, .235/.300/.353 .287 wOBA, -2.0 Batting Runs, 0.1 Baserunning Runs -0.1 Fielding Runs, 0.1 WAR

Swihart is a fairly forgotten man at this point. It’s very likely he greatly outperforms that projection. He’s expected to remain at catcher, although he’s been passable in left field and first base. The bar is so low for catchers at this point that if he impresses in spring training, he may even be trade bait if the Sox have no room for him on the roster - which is likely.

While catcher is definitely not a strength for the 2019 Red Sox, it’s very easy for them to beat what they got out of the position in 2018. It’s not a position of clear weakness that the Sox need to address, and Vazquez still has upside. Plus, Leon has shown the tendency to get hot, so this could end up being a lot better than the C-minus grade we have to give them right now.

Red Sox Catchers: C-minus

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Cameron Rupp Signs With San Francisco Giants

12/8/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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In their search for a strong backup catcher to play behind Buster Posey, the Giants signed Cameron Rupp. Formerly a solid backup catcher with power with the Phillies, Rupp bounced around in 2018, playing with three different teams at their AAA affiliates.

Rupp caught fire with the Rangers AAA team, hitting .274/.346/.540 albeit with a 34.6 percent strikeout rate. Then the Rangers let him go, where Rupp would go on to struggle with the Twins and Mariners. Overall, it was a pretty forgettable and frustrating season for him.

Defensively Rupp is not known for his framing skills. Really, he's not well regarded as a backstop overall. However, he has power, and he could work with Posey on some things.

Projection system Steamer doesn't like him at all in 2019. It projects a .202/.275/.350 batting line with no playing time. Rupp should display more raw power than that. Baseball reference lists his Marcel projection, which is .233/.302/.414 in 233 plate appearances. That seems like a more likely outcome.

Currently, the Giants have Aramis Garcia as their backup catcher. He's a better defensive catcher, but offers nowhere near Rupp's power potential. It will be interesting to see if Rupp displaces Garcia when spring training is out in 2019.

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Andres Blanco Signs With Atlanta Braves

12/8/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Atlanta Braves added a potential utility player in Andres Blanco. Entering his age 35 season, he figures to add some roster depth. A perfectly adequate defender at second base and shortstop, the Braves are happy to have his veteran presence around.

Blanco has never hit much in the major leagues outside of a hot 2015 where he did a lot of damage off the bench as a pinch hitter and third baseman. That year he hit .292/.360/.502 with 7 home runs. Interestingly, third base has been Blanco's worst position defensively.

However, after a couple of down years, Blanco hit .271/.362/.435 at AAA for the Brewers in 2018. Steamer projects Blanco for a .232/.298/.355 batting line. With his league average defense at second and third base, as well as the ability to cameo at third base, first base, and the outfield corners, he provides useful depth. If he catches fire, the Braves could enjoy one last hurrah from Blanco.

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Paul Goldschmidt Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals by the Arizona Diamondbacks

12/7/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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Plenty has already been written about Paul Goldschmidt joining the St. Louis Cardinals on the last year of his contract. The Arizona Diamondbacks received five years of control of a mid-rotation starting pitcher, a decent catcher who could contribute as early as 2019 or 2020, a solid utility player, and a top-80 draft pick in the 2019 draft.

Goldschmidt is due $14.5 million in 2019 for his services, which is, honestly, pretty inexpensive for one of the best hitters in the majors. He projects to be worth about 4.2 WAR in 2019 according to Steamer with a conservative .277/.385/.488 batting line. At age 31 in 2019, a slight dip in his batting line is possible. His defense at first base is usually above average, although UZR didn’t like his defense last year while DRS did at +6.

The Cardinals are obviously instantly better with this move. Matt Carpenter moves back to third base, where his already strong bat becomes even more valuable. On the open market, Goldschmidt’s projection would be worth about $34 million in value. So, was the Diamondbacks return good?

The Diamondbacks Receive Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, and Andy Young

Besides the top-80 draft pick, the Diamondbacks get 5 years of Luke Weaver, six years of Carson Kelly, and a AAA minor leaguer in Andy Young. Weaver is the most MLB ready of the three, and he’s expected to slide right into the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Kelly and Young could also make an impact in 2019.

Luke Weaver was excellent for the Cardinals in 2017, but took a step back in 2018. Even in a down year, he was still worth 1.3 fWAR (FanGraphs WAR that uses FIP not ERA as a measure of value.) Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR in 2019. At only 25, Weaver is still looking ahead to his prime. If he’s a 2 WAR pitcher for even just three out of the next five seasons, this trade already looks like a win for the Diamondbacks.

The best thing about Weaver is he’s cheap, making the league minimum for 2019 and 2020, plus three more years of arbitration-eligible seasons. He’s easily the gem of the deal and really just has to stay healthy and be a roughly league-average starter.

Carson Kelly hasn’t been exciting in the major leagues so far as the heir apparent to Yadier Molina with the Cardinals. However, his minor league numbers and plus defense suggest he should be able to help the Diamondbacks in some capacity in 2019. Steamer projects him for 0.8 WAR with a .242/.316/.370 batting line and +4.8 runs on defense in only 53 games. He’s had very poor luck on batted balls in play so far in his MLB career, so that projection could easily be correct. Over the course of a full season, he could easily be a roughly league-average backstop. He’ll back up Alex Avila for now.

Already, the Diamondbacks seem to have “won” this trade. But that’s before we also consider Andy Young, the former 37th round pick. In many ways, Young is a lot like a guy that the Diamondbacks just let go in Chris Owings. Like Owings, Young plays second base, third base, shortstop, and the outfield. Steamer projects Young for a 12 game cup of coffee in 2019, hitting .253.307.408 with adequate defense for 0.1 WAR. Project that over a full season, and you have something like a 1.1 WAR player who can cover the whole infield and the outfield corners. They also control Young for six seasons.

It’s hard to fault the Cardinals for making this move, though. This was going to be the cheapest way for them to anchor their lineup. The Cardinals probably won’t miss any of those three players. Also, because they traded for Goldschmidt before the season started, the Cardinals can still extend a qualifying offer to him after the season. If he rejects it - a one-year offer in the range of $18 million or so - the Cardinals can recoup a draft pick. The Diamondbacks were happy to get a good pick already - not much worse than what they would’ve gotten out of a Goldschmidt qualifying offer being rejected.

Also, while this was probably not in the Diamondbacks’ line of thinking - what if this is the year that Goldy begins to decline? His value is never going to be higher than it is now. Both sides did what they needed to do. The funny thing is, the Diamondbacks may not even be that much worse this year.

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Chris Owings Signs with Kansas City Royals

12/7/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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In their quest to rebuild without actually rebuilding, the Kansas City Royals made a decent shrewd free agent signing of a utility player named Chris Owings. Formerly of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Owings has played second base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions in his career. He had a dreadful 2018 with the bat, so he’ll be looking to get back to at least his career averages.

The Royals are only guaranteeing Owings $3 million, plus $500,000 in incentives. The plus with Owings is his positional versatility. While Whit Merrifield holds down second base and Adalberto Mondesi holds down shortstop for the Royals, Owings is a plus in the outfield. In 2018, he was worth +10 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, with 5 DRS in right field in only 314 innings, 4 DRS in center with only 109 innings (!), and 1 DRS in 26 left field innings. He’s definitely a plus in the outfield.

There’s also a chance Owings plays some third base - not a position he’s played much in the major leagues - although he can handle it. Hunter Dozier is the Royals’ best third base option, and he’s not exactly lighting the world on fire. The Royals have four decent outfielders: Alex Gordon, Brian Goodwin, Brett Phillips, and Jorge Soler. So, it seems third base is his most clear route to playing time.

Steamer projects Owings for a .252/.300/.378 batting line, 10 stolen bases, essentially neutral defense, and 0.4 WAR. These are basically in line with his career averages, although he could be more of a plus on defense - especially if he plays mostly in the outfield. 2018 was not kind to his usually solid second base defense and his typical below average play at shortstop. The Royals paid the market rate for Owings if he matches his projection - which is hardly a bad thing.

Of course, being a rebuilding team - or a team that should be rebuilding - Owings is a fine fit. Of course, there’s ongoing speculation that Whit Merrifield will be traded at some point. Merrifield is still making the league minimum in 2019, followed by three years of arbitration, making him one of the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball. So, Owings can hold down second base in that case - although he is a massive downgrade - if the Royals decide to go in that direction.

Royals fans should hope that they are going the route of the Twins and Tigers in picking up players on buy-low contracts to hopefully catch lightning in a bottle. Owings doesn’t strike me as the trade chip type, although he could have value to a competitive team needing a glove-first guy with some speed off of the bench. In any case, it’s a respectable move.

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Jonathan Schoop Signs with the Minnesota Twins

12/6/2018

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by R.A. Rowell; Co-owner of Brand Shamans & Write W.A.V.E. Media
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The Minnesota Twins decided it was worth taking a one-year gamble on second baseman Jonathan Schoop. The pact is for the 2019 season at $7.5 million guaranteed with potential incentives. This is a significant pay-cut from the $8.5 million Schoop received in arbitration in the 2018 season. This was his last season of eligibility for arbitration and he was expected to earn about $10 million before becoming a free agent.

After a 32 home run 3.8 WAR career year in 2017 with the Orioles, he stumbled badly in 2018. He was traded to Milwaukee, where the Brewers hoped to give him a chance of scenery. He struggled even more badly and was non-tendered by the club, since they had no intention of paying him the $10 million he likely was going to receive in an arbitration hearing.

You may wonder how someone that hit only .233/.266/.416 could get that much money. He did still hit 21 homers and drive in 61 runs. Home runs are not an unknown for Schoop, who hit 16 in 2014, 15 in 2015, and 25 in 2016. While he’s not a Gold Glove second baseman, he also doesn’t hurt you. He had 10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2014, 2 DRS in 2017, and 3 DRS in 2018. He was only slightly below average in 2015 and 2016. The glove isn’t a problem.

So, Schoop has power and he has a decent glove at the keystone position. These are two-thirds of what Schoop needs to really get paid in free agency. There were certainly other teams in on Schoop, but after losing their stalwart second baseman Brian Dozier to free agency, the Twins are in the position to be able to take a risk. Since he is extremely unlikely to suddenly fall apart in the field and he’s pretty much a lock for 20 HR, there isn’t really much to worry about if he finds himself.

The projection for 2019 by Steamer is .256/.298/.450 with 22 HR and 68 RBI and 1.6 WAR in 122 games. That’s very similar to Schoop’s 2016. At $7.5 million, Schoop is actually a bargain with those numbers, even if his salary is increased by some incentives. If he plays closer to 150 games, he’s pretty much a 2-win player, which is worth something like $15 million a year on the open market.

The Twins are actually making an intelligent move here. They are pretty much paying him to be a stopgap second baseman who could produce as little as 1 WAR in 2019 and be worth his contract. Of course, he was worth a mere 0.5 WAR between the O’s and Brewers in 2018, but it’s unlikely he falls flat on his face again. He was a bit unlucky on balls in play - .261 batting average on balls in play VS a .296 career mark.

Sure, Schoop doesn’t walk, but his power alone is pretty much enough to make him a league average hitter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when you consider he’s steady with the glove. It’s a bit concerning that StatCast saw his expected batting average was only .227 and his expected wOBA only .266, when his true numbers were .233 and .290. Of course, that just means that his batted ball profile was terrible. Anyone who saw him play much at all last year could tell he was just not himself.

It won’t take much for Schoop to return to form. This is a guy who can be a steady league-average second baseman, and if he catches fire like he did in 2017, he could be an occasional All-Star, too. The Twins are hoping that he does just that, and since they don’t plan to contend, be a useful trade chip. If he falls flat, he’s not blocking anyone in the farm system. He does displace Ehire Adrianza - who isn’t much more of a hitter than Schoop was last year - but Schoop has far more upside with his power.

The Twins suddenly have a ton of infielders, especially with Ronald Torreyes joining the fold, as well if he makes the major league roster. But, Schoop is worth the gamble, and the Twins are in the position where if they lose the roll of the dice, it will hardly kill them. Even then, Schoop’s upside is such that they still may get some value for him. It’s a hard move not to like.

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